Temporal changes in cause of death among adolescents and adults in six countries in eastern and southern Africa in 1995-2019: a multi-country surveillance study of verbal autopsy data.

BACKGROUND: The absence of high-quality comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems across many settings in Africa has led to little empirical data on causes of death in the region. We aimed to use verbal autopsy data to provide comparative, population-based estimates of cause-specific mortality among adolescents and adults in eastern and southern Africa. METHODS: In this surveillance study, we harmonised verbal autopsy and residency data from nine health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) sites in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, each with variable coverage from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2019. We included all deaths to adolescents and adults aged 12 or over that were residents of the study sites and had a verbal autopsy conducted. InSilicoVA, a probabilistic model, was used to assign cause of death on the basis of the signs and symptoms reported in the verbal autopsy. Levels and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions were calculated, stratified by HDSS site, sex, age, and calendar periods. FINDINGS: 52 484 deaths and 5 157 802 person-years were reported among 1 071 913 individuals across the nine sites during the study period. 47 961 (91·4%) deaths had a verbal autopsy, of which 46 570 (97·1%) were assigned a cause of death. All-cause mortality generally decreased across the HDSS sites during this period, particularly for adults aged 20-59 years. In many of the HDSS sites, these decreases were driven by reductions in HIV and tuberculosis-related deaths. In 2010-14, the top causes of death were: road traffic accidents, HIV or tuberculosis, and meningitis or sepsis in adolescents (12-19 years); HIV or tuberculosis in adults aged 20-59 years; and neoplasms and cardiovascular disease in adults aged 60 years and older. There was greater between-HDSS and between-sex variation in causes of death for adolescents compared with adults. INTERPRETATION: This study shows progress in reducing mortality across eastern and southern Africa but also highlights age, sex, within-HDSS, and between-HDSS differences in causes of adolescent and adult deaths. These findings highlight the importance of detailed local data to inform health needs to ensure continued improvements in survival. FUNDING: National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the US National Institutes of Health.

Levels, trends and inequalities in mortality among 5-19-year-olds in Tanzania: Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Study (1995-2022).

Background: For the past two decades, health priorities in Tanzania have focussed on children under-five, leaving behind the older children and adolescents (5-19 years). Understanding mortality patterns beyond 5 years is important in bridging a healthy gap between childhood to adulthood. We aimed to estimate mortality levels, trends, and inequalities among 5-19-year-olds using population data from the Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Tanzania and further compare the population level estimates with global estimates. Methods: Using data from the Magu HDSS from 1995 to 2022, from Kaplan Meir survival probabilities, we computed annual mortality probabilities for ages 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 and determined the average annual rate of change in mortality by fitting the variance weighted least square regression on annual mortality probabilities. We compared 5-19 trends with younger children aged 1-4 years. We further disaggregated mortality by sex, area of residence and wealth tertiles, and we computed age-stratified risk ratios with respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazard model to determine inequalities. We further compared population-level estimates in all-cause mortality with global estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and the Global Burden of Disease study by computing the relative differences to the estimates. Results: Mortality declined steadily among the three age groups from 1995 to 2022, whereby the average annual rate of decline increased with age (2.2%, 2.7%, and 2.9% for 5-9-, 10-14-, and 15-19-year-old age groups, respectively). The pace of this decline was lower than that of younger children aged 1-4 years (4.8% decline). We observed significant mortality inequalities with boys, those residing in rural areas, and those from poorest wealth tertiles lagging behind. While Magu estimates were close to global estimates for the 5-9-year-old age group, we observed divergent results for adolescents (10-19 years), with Magu estimates lying between the global estimates. Conclusion: The pace of mortality decline was lower for the 5-19-year-old age group compared to younger children, with observable inequalities by socio-demographic characteristics. Determining the burden of disease across different strata is important in the development of evidence-based targeted interventions to address the mortality burden and inequalities in this age group, as it is an important transition period to adulthood.

Estimation of cause-specific mortality in Rakai, Uganda, using verbal autopsy 1999-2019.

BACKGROUND: There are scant data on the causes of adult deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated the level and trends in adult mortality, overall and by different causes, in rural Rakai, Uganda, by age, sex, and HIV status. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and analyse adult cause-specific mortality trends in Rakai, Uganda. METHODOLOGY: Mortality information by cause, age, sex, and HIV status was recorded in the Rakai Community Cohort study using verbal autopsy interviews, HIV serosurveys, and residency data. We estimated the average number of years lived in adulthood. Using demographic decomposition methods, we estimated the contribution of each cause of death to adult mortality based on the average number of years lived in adulthood. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2019, 63082 adults (15-60 years) were censused, with 1670 deaths registered. Of these, 1656 (99.2%) had completed cause of death data from verbal autopsy. The crude adult death rate was 5.60 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.33-5.87) per 1000 person-years of observation (pyo). The crude death rate decreased from 11.41 (95% CI: 10.61-12.28) to 3.27 (95% CI: 2.89-3.68) per 1000 pyo between 1999-2004 and 2015-2019. The average number of years lived in adulthood increased in people living with HIV and decreased in HIV-negative individuals between 2000 and 2019. Communicable diseases, primarily HIV and Malaria, had the biggest decreases, which improved the average number of years lived by approximately extra 12 years of life in females and 6 years in males. There were increases in deaths due to non-communicable diseases and external causes, which reduced the average number of years lived in adulthood by 2.0 years and 1.5 years in females and males, respectively. CONCLUSION: There has been a significant decline in overall mortality from 1999 to 2019, with the greatest decline seen in people living with HIV since the availability of antiretroviral therapy in 2004. By 2020, the predominant causes of death among females were non-communicable diseases, with external causes of death dominating in males.

Main findings: There are significant declines in mortality in people living with HIV. However, mortality in HIV-negative people increased due to non-communicable diseases in females, and injuries and external causes of death among males.Added knowledge: In this HIV-endemic area, decreasing adult mortality has been documented over the last 20 years. This paper benchmarks the changes in cause-specific mortality in this area.Global health impact for policy action: As in many African countries, more effort is needed to reduce mortality for non-communicable diseases, injuries, and external causes of death as these seem to have been neglected.

Association between breastfeeding duration and educational attainment in rural Southwest Uganda: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding is important for early childhood nutrition and health. The positive effects on educational outcomes may be attributed to socioeconomic factors. Socioeconomic status is not a strong predictor of breastfeeding in sub-Saharan African countries. Yet, few studies have investigated the association between breastfeeding and educational outcomes in these countries. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the association between breastfeeding duration and children's educational attainment in rural Southwest Uganda. METHODS: We analysed longitudinal data on 3018 children who had information on breastfeeding and were followed for at least 5 years, with at least one primary school grade recorded by 2005. Data on breastfeeding duration were collected from mothers. The highest school grade was recorded repeatedly between ages 6 and 12 years. We calculated age-for-grade based on whether a child was on, over, or under the official age for a grade. Generalised estimating equations and binary logistic regression estimated the effect of breastfeeding duration on being 2 years, 3 or more years, or any years over-age for grade in primary school, adjusting for socioeconomic status and maternal-child characteristics. RESULTS: Most mothers breastfed for more than a year. Just over one-third breastfed for 18-23 months, and 30% breastfed for longer. By age eight, 42% of the children were two years over-age for their grade. Three or more years over-age for grade increased from 19% at age nine to 56% at age 12. Both adjusted and unadjusted estimates were consistent in showing reduced odds for children being 2 years, 3 or more years, or any years over-age for grade among children breastfed for 7-12, 13-17, 18-23, and > 23 months compared to those breastfed for 0-6 months. There was no evidence to support an overall association between breastfeeding duration and being over-age for grade. There was no evidence of association in the sex and age sub-group analyses. CONCLUSION: Although we found no association between breastfeeding duration and educational attainment, breastfeeding remains important for children's health and nutrition, and mothers should be encouraged and supported to breastfeed for the recommended duration.

Main findings: We found no clear evidence of an association between breastfeeding duration and educational attainment in rural Uganda.Added knowledge: The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between breastfeeding and educational outcomes in sub-Saharan African countries, where evidence on this topic is limited.Global health impact for policy and action: Our findings should not discourage breastfeeding, as it is essential for infant health and nutrition.

Rates of sexual partner acquisition from nationally representative surveys: variation between countries and by age, sex, wealth, partner and HIV status.

BACKGROUND: Knowing levels and determinants of partnership acquisition will help inform interventions that try to reduce transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including HIV. METHODS: We used population-based, cross-sectional data from 47 Demographic and Health Surveys to calculate rates of partner acquisition among men and women (15-49years), and identified socio-demographic correlates for partner acquisition. Partner acquisition rates were estimated as the total number of acquisitions divided by the person-time in the period covered by the survey. For each survey and by sex, we estimated age-specific partner acquisition rates and used age-adjusted piecewise exponential survival models to explore whether there was any association between wealth, HIV status and partner status with partner acquisition rates. RESULTS: Across countries, the median partner acquisition rates were 30/100 person-years for men (interquartile range 21-45) and 13/100 person-years for women (interquartile range 6-18). There were substantial variations in partner acquisition rates by age. Associations between wealth and partner acquisition rates varied across countries. People with a cohabiting partner were less likely to acquire a new one, and this effect was stronger for women than men and varied substantially between countries. Women living with HIV had higher partner acquisition rates than HIV-negative women but this association was less apparent for men. At a population level, partner acquisition rates were correlated with HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Partner acquisition rates are variable and are associated with important correlates of STIs and thus could be used to identify groups at high risk of STIs.

Comparison of survival analysis approaches to modelling age at first sex among youth in Kisesa Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Many studies analyze sexual and reproductive event data using descriptive life tables. Survival analysis has better power to estimate factors associated with age at first sex (AFS), but proportional hazards models may not be right model to use. This study used accelerated failure time (AFT) models, restricted Mean Survival time model (RMST) models, with semi and non-parametric methods to assess age at first sex (AFS), factors associated with AFS, and verify underlying assumptions for each analysis. METHODS: Self-reported sexual debut data was used from respondents 15-24 years in eight cross-sectional surveys between 1994-2016, and from adolescents' survey in an observational community study (2019-2020) in northwest Tanzania. Median AFS was estimated in each survey using non-parametric and parametric models. Cox regression, AFT parametric models (exponential, gamma, generalized gamma, Gompertz, Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic), and RMST were used to estimate and identify factors associated with AFS. The models were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), where lower values represent a better model fit. RESULTS: The results showed that in every survey, the Cox regression model had higher AIC and BIC compared to the other models. Overall, AFT had the best fit in every survey round. The estimated median AFS using the parametric and non-parametric methods were close. In the adolescent survey, log-logistic AFT showed that females and those attending secondary and higher education level had a longer time to first sex (Time ratio (TR) = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06, TR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02-1.08, respectively) compared to males and those who reported not being in school. Cell phone ownership (TR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96), alcohol consumption (TR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84-0.93), and employed adolescents (TR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) shortened time to first sex. CONCLUSION: The AFT model is better than Cox PH model in estimating AFS among the young population.

Effects of exclusive breastfeeding on educational attainment and longitudinal trajectories of grade progression among children in a 13-year follow-up study in Malawi.

The benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for infant health and survival are well documented. However, its impact on educational outcomes has been contested and poorly researched in Africa. It has been hypothesised that positive associations reported in high-income countries can be attributed to residual confounding by socioeconomic status (SES). Our study investigated whether EBF duration in infancy is associated with educational attainment and age-for-grade attainment trajectories at school-age in rural Malawi. Longitudinal data on 1021 children at the Karonga demographic surveillance site in Malawi were analysed. Breastfeeding data were collected 3 months after birth and again at age one. The school grade of each child was recorded each year from age 6 until age 13. We calculated age-for-grade based on whether a child was at, over, or under the official expected age for a grade. Generalised estimating equations estimated the average effect of breastfeeding on age-for-grade. Latent class growth analysis identified age-for-grade trajectories, and multinomial logistic regression examined their associations with EBF. Maternal-child characteristics, SES, and HIV status were controlled. Overall, 35.9% of the children were exclusively breastfed for 6 months. Over-age for grade steadily increased from 9.6% at age 8 to 41.9% at age 13. There was some evidence that EBF for 6 months was associated with lower odds of being over-age for grade than EBF for less than 3 months (aOR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.64-1.06). In subgroup analyses, children exclusively breastfed for 6 months in infancy were less likely to be over-age for grades between ages 6-9 (aOR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.43-0.94). Latent class growth analysis also provided some evidence that EBF reduced the odds of falling behind in the early school grades (aOR = 0.66, 95%CI = 0.41-1.08) but not later. Our study adds to the growing evidence that EBF for 6 months has benefits beyond infant health and survival, supporting the WHO's recommendation on EBF.

Comparison of programmatic data from antenatal clinics with population-based HIV prevalence estimates in the era of universal test and treat in western Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To compare HIV prevalence estimates from routine programme data in antenatal care (ANC) clinics in western Kenya with HIV prevalence estimates in a general population sample in the era of universal test and treat (UTT). METHODS: The study was conducted in the area covered by the Siaya Health Demographic Surveillance System (Siaya HDSS) in western Kenya and used data from ANC clinics and the general population. ANC data (n = 1,724) were collected in 2018 from 13 clinics located within the HDSS. The general population was a random sample of women of reproductive age (15-49) who reside in the Siaya HDSS and participated in an HIV sero-prevalence survey in 2018 (n = 2,019). Total and age-specific HIV prevalence estimates were produced from both datasets and demographic decomposition methods were used to quantify the contribution of the differences in age distributions and age-specific HIV prevalence to the total HIV prevalence estimates. RESULTS: Total HIV prevalence was 18.0% (95% CI 16.3-19.9%) in the ANC population compared with 18.4% (95% CI 16.8-20.2%) in the general population sample. At most ages, HIV prevalence was higher in the ANC population than in the general population. The age distribution of the ANC population was younger than that of the general population, and because HIV prevalence increases with age, this reduced the total HIV prevalence among ANC attendees relative to prevalence standardised to the general population age distribution. CONCLUSION: In the era of UTT, total HIV prevalence among ANC attendees and the general population were comparable, but age-specific HIV prevalence was higher in the ANC population in most age groups. The expansion of treatment may have led to changes in both the fertility of women living with HIV and their use of ANC services, and our results lend support to the assertion that the relationship between ANC and general population HIV prevalence estimates are highly dynamic.

Prevalence and risk factors of unsuppressed viral load among pregnant and breastfeeding women in sub-Saharan Africa: analysis from population-based surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence of viral suppression and risk factors for unsuppressed viral load among pregnant and breastfeeding women living with HIV (WLH). DESIGN: Pooled analysis among pregnant and breastfeeding WLH from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) cross-sectional surveys from 10 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: Questionnaires included sociodemographic, relationship-related, and HIV-related items, while blood tests examined HIV serostatus and viral load (data collected 2015-2018). The weighted prevalence of viral suppression was calculated. Logistic regression was used to examine risk factors for unsuppressed viral load (≥1000 copies/ml). RESULTS: Of 1685 pregnant or breastfeeding WLH with viral load results, 63.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 60.8-66.7%) were virally suppressed at the study visit. Among all included women, adolescence (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 4.85, 95% CI: 2.58-9.14, P  < 0.001) and nondisclosure of HIV status to partner (aOR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.02-2.14, P  = 0.04) were associated with unsuppressed viral load. Among only partnered women, adolescence (aOR: 7.95, 95% CI: 3.32-19.06, P  < 0.001), and lack of paid employment (aOR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47-0.94, P  = 0.02) were associated with unsuppressed viral load. Examining only women on ART, nondisclosure of HIV status to partner (aOR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.19-2.88, P  = 0.006) was associated with unsuppressed viral load. CONCLUSION: Viral suppression among pregnant and breastfeeding WLH in sub-Saharan Africa remains suboptimal. Relationship dynamics around nondisclosure of HIV-positive status to partners was an important risk factor for unsuppressed viral load. Improving HIV care via sensitive discussions around partner dynamics in pregnant and breastfeeding women could improve maternal HIV outcomes and prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT).

The association of breastfeeding with cognitive development and educational achievement in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review.

Background: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies mainly from high-income countries suggest that breastfeeding improves cognitive function and educational achievement. However, these associations may be a manifestation of who breastfeeds in these settings rather than an actual effect of breastfeeding. We investigated the association of breastfeeding with cognitive development and educational achievements in sub-Saharan Africa, where breastfeeding is the norm, and socioeconomic status is not strongly correlated with ever breastfeeding. Methods: We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Africa-Wide Information in January 2021 for studies that assessed the cognitive and educational benefits of breastfeeding in children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa. Two reviewers independently screened, extracted, and critically appraised the included studies. Results: After reviewing 5552 abstracts and 151 full-text articles, seventeen studies on cognitive development and two on educational achievements met our predefined inclusion criteria. The included studies were from ten sub-Saharan African countries and published between 2013 and 2021, with sample sizes ranging from 54 to 6573. Most of the studies (n = 14) were prospective cohort studies, but only nine collected data on breastfeeding prospectively. The studies differed in analytic approaches and cognitive and educational achievements measurements. Of the 17 studies on cognitive development, only four adjusted sufficiently for key confounders. None of these four studies found an overall association between breastfeeding and cognitive development in children or adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa. The two studies on education measured achievements based on the highest grade of school attained, 12 or more years of education, or grade repetition at age 7-11 years. Both studies adjusted for a range of sociodemographic factors and found no evidence that children exclusively breastfed or breastfed for a longer duration have a better educational outcome than sub-optimally breastfed children. Conclusions: The current evidence from sub-Saharan Africa is limited but does not corroborate previous findings that breastfeeding is associated with improved cognitive development and educational achievement. Registration: This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021236009.

Time trends in the prevalence and determinants of age-appropriate breast feeding among children aged 0-23 months in Ghana: a pooled analysis of population-based surveys, 2003-2017.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the sociodemographic and maternal-child characteristics associated with age-appropriate breast feeding among children aged 0-23 months in Ghana. METHODS: We pooled data on 12 743 children aged 0-23 months from three Demographic and Health Surveys (2003, 2008 and 2014) and three Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (2006, 2011 and 2017-2018). The outcome was age-appropriate breast feeding from birth to 23 months, with age-appropriate breast feeding defined as exclusive breast feeding at 0-5 months (ie, at less than 6 months) and breastfeeding alongside appropriate complementary feeding at 6-23 months. Potential determinants were maternal-child sociodemographic, obstetric and healthcare factors. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with age-appropriate breast feeding. We accounted for the complex sampling design of the cross-sectional surveys in the analysis. RESULTS: Most children aged 0-3 months were exclusively breastfed. Among children aged 4-5 months, the most common feeding pattern was breastfeeding alongside water and/or solid foods. Exclusive breastfeeding prevalence in children less than 6 months peaked in 2008 at 62.8% and declined to 42.9% in 2017. For 6-11 month olds, the percentage experiencing age-appropriate breast feeding has been stable over the last four surveys, ranging from 79.3% in 2008 to 81.1% in 2017. Age-appropriate breast feeding in 12-23 month olds declined from 77.8% in 2003 to 61.2% in 2017. Rural residence, younger age, non-facility births and multiple births were associated with decreased odds of exclusively breast feeding. For 6-11 month olds, age-appropriate breast feeding was less likely if the woman did not receive postnatal care. Younger age, being unmarried, high income, wanting a child later and earlier birth order were associated with decreased odds of age-appropriate breast feeding in 12-23 month olds. CONCLUSION: Ghanaian children are now less likely to be exclusively breastfed than they were a decade ago. To succeed, breastfeeding promotion programmes should adopt approaches that address the predictors of suboptimal breast feeding at each age, as identified in this study.

The prevalence and incidence of HIV in the ART era (2006-2016) in North West Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan countries bear a disproportionate percentage of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths despite the efforts to strengthen HIV prevention and treatments services, including ART. It is important to demonstrate how these services have contributed to reducing the epidemic using available population data. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence and incidence rates from a cohort running over 23 years in Magu District, Mwanza Region-North West Tanzania. Adults 15 years and over who were residents of the Kisesa observational HIV cohort study between 2006 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Survival analysis was used to calculate person-time at risk, incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Cox regression models were used for the risk factor analyses disaggregated by sex and age group. RESULTS: The HIV prevalence in the sero-surveys decreased from 7.2% in 2006/07 to 6.6% in 2016, with a notable decrease of over 50% for both men and women aged 15-24 years. The incidence rate for HIV was estimated to be 5.5 (95% CI 4.6-6.6) per 1,000 person-years in women compared to 4.6 (95% CI 3.5-5.8) in men, with a decrease over time. Despite the availability of ART services, the uptake is still small. CONCLUSIONS: New infections are still occurring, with high HIV incidence in individuals aged below 45 years. With new guidelines and the 95-95-95 UNAIDS target, prevalence and incidence must be adequately assessed. In addition, there is a need for additional efforts to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS prevention programmes and intervention services, especially in these areas where resources are limited.

No association between fertility desire and HIV infections among men and women: Findings from community-based studies before and after implementation of an early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation program in the rural district of North-western Tanzania.

Background: Fertility is associated with the desire to have children. The impacts of HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility are well known, but their impacts on the desire for children are less well known in Tanzania. We used data from two studies carried out at different periods of ART coverage in rural Tanzania to explore the relationship between HIV infection and fertility desires in men and women. Methods: We conducted secondary data analysis of the two community-based studies conducted in 2012 and 2017 in the Magu Health and Demographic system site, in Tanzania. Information on fertility desires, HIV status, and social-economic and demographic variables were analyzed. Fertility desire was defined as whether or not the participant wanted to bear a child in the next two years. The main analysis used log-binomial regression to assess the association between fertility desire and HIV infection. Results: In the 2012 study, 43% (95% CI 40.7-45.3) of men and 33.3% (95% CI 31.8 - 35.0) women wanted another child in the next two years. In 2017 the percentage rose to 55.7% (95% CI 53.6 - 57.8) in men and 41.5% (95% CI 39.8 - 43.1) in women. Although fertility desire in men and women were higher in HIV uninfected compared to HIV infected, age-adjusted analysis did not show a statistical significance difference in both studies (2012: PR=1.02, 95%CI 0.835 - 1.174, p<0.915 and 2017: PR = 0.90 95%CI 0.743 - 1.084 p= 0.262). Discussion: One-third of women and forty percent of men desired for fertility in 2012, while forty percent of women and nearly half of men desired for fertility in 2017. The data showed fertility desire, in 2012 and 2017 were not related to HIV infection in both periods of ART coverage.

HIV acquisition in pregnancy: implications for mother-to-child transmission at the population level in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: A recent sero-discordant couple study showed an elevated risk of HIV-acquisition during the pregnancy/postpartum period per-condomless-coital-act. This, along with previous studies, has led to concern over possible increased risk of mother-to-child (vertical) transmission, due to the initial high viral load in the first months after seroconversion, in a time when the woman and health services may be unaware of her status. This study looks at whether behavioural differences during the pregnant/postpartum period could reduce the impact of elevated risk of HIV acquisition per-condomless-coital-act at the population level. METHODS: We used data from 60 demographic and health surveys from 32 sub-Saharan African countries. Using the HIV status of couples, we estimated differences in serodiscordancy between HIV-negative women who were pregnant/postpartum compared to those who were not pregnant/postpartum. We compare the risk of sexual activity over the pregnant/postpartum period to those not pregnant/postpartum. Using these risks of serodiscordancy and sexual activity along with estimates of increased HIV risk in the pregnancy/postpartum period per-condomless-coital-act, we estimated a population-level risk of HIV acquisition and acute infection, during pregnancy/postpartum compared to those not pregnant/postpartum. RESULTS: Sexual activity during pregnancy/postpartum varies considerably. In general, sexual activity is high in the first trimester of pregnancy, then declines to levels lower than among women not pregnant/postpartum, and is at its lowest in the first months postpartum. Adjusted for age and survey, pooled results show HIV-negative pregnant women are less likely to have an HIV-positive partner compared to those not pregnant/postpartum (risk ratio (RR) = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.68-0.89) and comparing the postpartum period (RR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.73-0.99). Estimated population-level risk for HIV acquisition and acute infection in pregnancy/postpartum was lower than would be inferred directly from per-condomless-coital-act estimates in most countries, over the time of most risk of mother-to-child transmission, though there was variation by country and month of pregnancy/postpartum. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of population-level HIV acquisition risk in sub-Saharan Africa should not be taken directly from per-condomless-coital-act studies to estimate vertical transmission. Changes in sexual behaviour and differences in HIV-serodiscordancy during pregnancy/postpartum reduce the impact of increased risk of HIV acquisition per-condomless-coital-act, this will vary by region.

Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa: a modelling analysis of observational population-based cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: As the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa matures, evidence about the age distribution of new HIV infections and how this distribution has changed over the epidemic is needed to guide HIV prevention. We aimed to assess trends in age-specific HIV incidence in six population-based cohort studies in eastern and southern Africa, reporting changes in mean age at infection, age distribution of new infections, and birth cohort cumulative incidence. METHODS: We used a Bayesian model to reconstruct age-specific HIV incidence from repeated observations of individuals' HIV serostatus and survival collected among population HIV cohorts in rural Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, in a collaborative analysis of the ALPHA network. We modelled HIV incidence rates by age, time, and sex using smoothing splines functions. We estimated incidence trends separately by sex and study. We used estimated incidence and prevalence results for 2000-17, standardised to study population distribution, to estimate mean age at infection and proportion of new infections by age. We also estimated cumulative incidence (lifetime risk of infection) by birth cohort. FINDINGS: Age-specific incidence declined at all ages, although the timing and pattern of decline varied by study. The mean age at infection was higher in men (cohort mean 27·8-34·6 years) than in women (24·8-29·6 years). Between 2000 and 2017, the mean age at infection per cohort increased slightly: 0·5 to 2·8 years among men and -0·2 to 2·5 years among women. Across studies, between 38% and 63% (cohort medians) of the infections in women were among those aged 15-24 years and between 30% and 63% of infections in men were in those aged 20-29 years. Lifetime risk of HIV declined for successive birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION: HIV incidence declined in all age groups and shifted slightly to older ages. Disproportionate new HIV infections occur among women aged 15-24 years and men aged 20-29 years, supporting focused prevention in these groups. However, 40-60% of infections were outside these ages, emphasising the importance of providing appropriate HIV prevention to adults of all ages. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Strengthening measurement and performance of HIV prevention programmes.

Indicators for the measurement of programmes for the primary prevention of HIV are less aligned than indicators for HIV treatment, which results in a high burden of data collection, often without a clear vision for its use. As new evidence becomes available, the opportunity arises to critically evaluate the way countries and global bodies monitor HIV prevention programmes by incorporating emerging data on the strength of the evidence linking various factors with HIV acquisition, and by working to streamline indicators across stakeholders to reduce burdens on health-care systems. Programmes are also using new approaches, such as targeting specific sexual networks that might require non-traditional approaches to measurement. Technological advances can support these new directions and provide opportunities to use real-time analytics and new data sources to more effectively understand and adapt HIV prevention programmes to reflect population movement, risks, and an evolving epidemic.

Direct maternal deaths attributable to HIV in the era of antiretroviral therapy: evidence from three population-based HIV cohorts with verbal autopsy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether HIV is associated with an increased risk of mortality from direct maternal complications. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study using data from three demographic surveillance sites in Eastern and Southern Africa. METHODS: We use verbal autopsy data, with cause of death assigned using the InSilicoVA algorithm, to describe the association between HIV and direct maternal deaths amongst women aged 20-49 years. We report direct maternal mortality rates by HIV status, and crude and adjusted rate ratios comparing HIV-infected and uninfected women, by study site and by ART availability. We pool the study-specific rate ratios using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: There was strong evidence that HIV increased the rate of direct maternal mortality across all the study sites in the period ART was widely available, with the rate ratios varying from 4.5 in Karonga, Malawi [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-12.6] to 5.2 in Kisesa, Tanzania (95% CI 1.7-16.1) and 5.9 in uMkhanyakude, South Africa (95% CI 2.3-15.2) after adjusting for sociodemographic confounders. Combining these adjusted results across the study sites, we estimated that HIV-infected women have 5.2 times the rate of direct maternal mortality compared with HIV-uninfected women (95% CI 2.9-9.5). CONCLUSION: HIV-infected women face higher rates of mortality from direct maternal causes, which suggests that we need to improve access to quality maternity care for these women. These findings also have implications for the surveillance of HIV/AIDS-related mortality, as not all excess mortality attributable to HIV will be explicitly attributed to HIV/AIDS on the basis of a verbal autopsy interview.

Trends in sexual activity and demand for and use of modern contraceptive methods in 74 countries: a retrospective analysis of nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: A quarter of a century ago, two global events-the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing-placed gender equality and reproductive health and rights at the centre of the development agenda. Progress towards these goals has been slower than hoped. We used survey data and national-level indicators of social determinants from 74 countries to examine change in satisfaction of contraceptive need from a contextual perspective. METHODS: We searched for individual-level data from repeated nationally representative surveys that included information on sexual and reproductive health, and created a single dataset by harmonising data from each survey to a standard data specification. We described the relative timings of sexual initiation, first union (cohabitation or marriage), and first birth and used logistic regression to show the change in prevalence of sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used linear regression to examine country-level associations between the gender development index and the expected length of time in education for women and the three outcomes: sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used principal component analysis to describe countries using a combination of social-structural and behavioural indicators and assessed how well the components explained country-level variation in the proportion of women using contraception with fractional logistic regression. FINDINGS: In 34 of the 74 countries examined, proportions of all women who were sexually active, not wanting to conceive, and not using a modern contraceptive method decreased over time. Proportions of women who had been sexually active in the past year changed over time in 43 countries, with increases in 30 countries; demand for contraception increased in 42 countries, and use of a modern method of contraception increased in 37 countries. Increases over time in met need for contraception were correlated with increases in gender equality and with women's time in education. Regression analysis on the principal components showed that country-level variation in met contraceptive need was largely explained by a single component that combined behavioural and social-contextual variables. INTERPRETATION: Progress towards satisfying demand for contraception should take account of the changing context in which it is practised. To remove the remaining barriers, policy responses-and therefore research priorities-could require a stronger focus on social-structural determinants and broader aspects of sexual health. FUNDING: UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.