Predation impact on threatened spur-thighed tortoises by golden eagles when main prey is scarce.

A reduction in adult survival in long-living species may compromise population growth rates. The spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca) is a long-lived reptile that is threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation. Golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), whose breeding habitats overlap that of tortoises, may predate them by dropping them onto rocks and breaking their carapaces. In SE Spain, the number of golden eagles has increased in the last decades and the abundance of their main prey (i.e., rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus) has decreased. Our aims were to 1) describe the role of tortoises in golden eagles' diet, and 2) estimate the predation impact of golden eagles on tortoises in eagles' territories and in the regional tortoise population. We collected regurgitated pellets and prey remains under eagle nests and roosts, and obtained information on tortoise abundance and population structure and rabbit abundance. We found that tortoises were an alternative prey to rabbits, so that eagles shifted to the former where the latter were scarce. The average predation rate on tortoises was very low at the two studied scales. However, eagles showed a marked selection for adult female tortoises, which led the tortoise sex ratio to be biased towards males in those eagle territories with higher tortoise predation. Whether this may compromise the spur-thighed tortoise long-term population viability locally deserves further attention.

An integral approach to address socio-ecological systems sustainability and their uncertainties.

The analysis of the sustainability should be addressed with a holistic approach that facilitates an integral analysis of the social, economic, institutional and environmental factors and their interactions characterizing complex socio-ecological systems (SES). Nevertheless, despite the increasing acknowledgment about the need for such systemic approaches, their application in real SES are less frequent than desirable. Among the difficulties behind this, the need for a new conceptual perspective concerning the relationships between science and the management of real SES, as well as the lack of tools to manage the inherent complexity of such systems should be emphasized. In this work, we further discuss these difficulties and propose an integral methodological framework for the assessment of SES sustainability, with the following key components: i) The hierarchical definition of sustainability goals and indicators. ii) A dynamic system model taking into account the key socio-economic and environmental factors and their interactions, in which the most representative indicators and their sustainability thresholds are integrated. iii) The analysis of vulnerabilities to exogenous drivers (scenario analysis) and the exploration of available management and planning options (policy assessment). iv) An uncertainty assessment concerning system behavior and model outcomes to guide decisions for an improved sustainability in complex SES. The whole framework highlights the need to integrate a participative approach, above all at the initial and final steps. In this work, these components are exemplified by means of their application to a real socio-ecological system: Fuerteventura island (The Canary Islands, Spain).

Nest sites as a key resource for population persistence: A case study modelling nest occupancy under forestry practices.

Natural nest sites are important breeding resource in terms of population dynamics, especially in forest systems where nest trees limit populations or timber harvesting destroys nests. Nest structures usually have a long life and can be reused by breeding pairs across multiple breeding seasons, so studying their dynamics is of relevance for biodiversity conservation. In this study, we develop a dynamic model to evaluate nest site availability and its influence on the breeding settlement of a forest raptor community composed of booted eagle (Hieraaetus pennatus), common buzzard (Buteo buteo) and northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) in a Mediterranean forest ecosystem in southeast Spain. This model approach is also applied to analyse the influence of forestry practices on the dynamics of occupied nests for a simulated period (2010-2050). The simulated scenarios include unmanaged forest and timber harvesting practices of clearcuttings every ten years considering two factors: the age class of trees for clearcutting (40, 50, 60 and 70 years old) and the type of forest management (with or without nest protection). Our simulated results show that the number of breeding pairs is constant during the period without timber harvest, whereas breeding pairs gradually decrease in the scenario of clearcutting trees aged from 70 to 50-years without nest protection, and populations become extinct with the clearcutting of 40-year old trees. Considering the practice of clearcutting and nest protection, nest occupancy can reach the maximum number of occupied nests for the scenarios of cutting 70 and 60-year old trees, and maintain populations without extinction for the scenarios of cutting 40-year old trees. We conclude that nest sites (whether occupied or not) are key resources for increasing the occupancy of the forest raptor community and that nest protection measures buffer the effects of clearcuttings, thus preventing population extinction.

Trade-offs between maintenance of ecosystem services and socio-economic development in rural mountainous communities in southern Spain: a dynamic simulation approach.

Mountainous rural communities have traditionally managed their land extensively, resulting in land uses that provide important ecosystem services for both rural and urban areas. Over recent decades, these communities have undergone drastic changes in economic structure, population size and land use. Our understanding of the exact mechanisms that drive these changes is limited, and there is also a lack of integrative approaches to enable decision makers to steer rural development towards a more sustainable path. In this study, we build a dynamic simulation model to calculate the trade-offs between the provisions of two ecosystem services - landscape aesthetic value and water supply for human use - and the economic development associated with different land use changes. The study area for the simulation comprises two rural communities located in southern Spain. Our results show trade-offs between economic development and the provision of the selected ecosystem services in the selected study area. Land use intensification results in economic development but is not enough to prevent population loss and has a negative impact on both the water supply and on aesthetic services. We conclude that more proactive management policies are needed to mitigate a loss in ecosystem services. Simulation models like ours may facilitate the choice of these policies, as they could test the result of land use planning policies contributing therefore, to a more integrative and sustainable management of rural communities.