Bayesian estimation of parameters in viral dynamics models with antiviral effect of interferons in a cell culture.

The goal of this work is to estimate the efficacy of interferon therapy in the inhibition of infection by the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in a cell culture. For this purpose, three viral dynamics models with the antiviral effect of interferons are presented; the dynamics of cell growth differ among the models, and a variant with Gompertz-type cell dynamics is proposed. A Bayesian statistics approach is used to estimate the cell dynamics parameters, viral dynamics and interferon efficacy. The models are fitted to sets of experimental data on cell growth, HIV-1 infection without interferon therapy and HIV-1 infection with interferon therapy, respectively. The Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used to determine the model that best fits the experimental data. In addition to the estimated model parameters, the average lifespan of the infected cells and the basic reproductive number are calculated.

Existence of a Conserved Quantity and Stability of In Vitro Virus Infection Dynamics Models with Absorption Effect.

The estimation of parameters in biomathematical models is useful to characterize quantitatively the dynamics of biological processes. In this paper, we consider some systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) modelling the viral dynamics in a cell culture. These models incorporate the loss of viral particles due to the absorption into target cells. We estimated the parameters of models by least-squares minimization between numerical solution of the system and experimental data of cell cultures. We derived a first integral or conserved quantity, and we proved the use of experimental data in order to test the conservation law. The systems have nonhyperbolic equilibrium points, and the conditions for their stability are obtained by using a Lyapunov function. We complemented these theoretical results with some numerical simulations.