Effect modification by statin use status on the association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and cardiovascular mortality.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have linked fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to increased cardiovascular mortality. Less is known how the PM2.5-cardiovascular mortality association varies by use of cardiovascular medications. This study sought to quantify effect modification by statin use status on the associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality from any cardiovascular cause, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. METHODS: In this nested case-control study, we followed 1.2 million community-dwelling adults aged ≥66 years who lived in Ontario, Canada from 2000 through 2018. Cases were patients who died from the three causes. Each case was individually matched to up to 30 randomly selected controls using incidence density sampling. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the associations between PM2.5 and mortality. We evaluated the presence of effect modification considering both multiplicative (ratio of ORs) and additive scales (the relative excess risk due to interaction, RERI). RESULTS: Exposure to PM2.5 increased the risks for cardiovascular, CHD, and stroke mortality. For all three causes of death, compared with statin users, stronger PM2.5-mortality associations were observed among non-users [e.g. for cardiovascular mortality corresponding to each interquartile range increase in PM2.5, OR = 1.042 (95% CI, 1.032-1.053) vs OR = 1.009 (95% CI, 0.996-1.022) in users, ratio of ORs = 1.033 (95% CI, 1.019-1.047), RERI = 0.039 (95% CI, 0.025-0.050)]. Among users, partially adherent users exhibited a higher risk of PM2.5-associated mortality than fully adherent users. CONCLUSIONS: The associations of chronic exposure to PM2.5 with cardiovascular and CHD mortality were stronger among statin non-users compared to users.

Understanding Reductions of PM2.5 Concentration and Its Chemical Composition in the United States: Implications for Mitigation Strategies.

Motivated by the recent tightening of the US annual standard of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations from 12 to 9 µg/m3, there is a need to understand the spatial variation and drivers of historical PM2.5 reductions. We evaluate and interpret the variability of PM2.5 reductions across the contiguous US using high-resolution estimates of PM2.5 and its chemical composition over 1998-2019, inferred from satellite observations, air quality modeling, and ground-based measurements. We separated the 3092 counties into four characteristic regions sorted by PM2.5 trends. Region 1 (primarily Central Atlantic states, 25.9% population) exhibits the strongest population-weighted annual PM2.5 reduction (-3.6 ± 0.4%/yr) versus Region 2 (primarily rest of the eastern US, -3.0 ± 0.3%/yr, 39.7% population), Region 3 (primarily western Midwest, -1.9 ± 0.3%/yr, 25.6% population), and Region 4 (primarily the Mountain West, -0.4 ± 0.5%/yr, 8.9% population). Decomposition of these changes by chemical composition elucidates that sulfate exhibits the fastest reductions among all components in 2720 counties (76% of population), mostly over Regions 1-3, with the 1998-2019 mean sulfate mass fraction in PM2.5 decreasing from Region 1 (29.5%) to Region 4 (11.8%). Complete elimination of the remaining sulfate may be insufficient to meet the new standard for many regions in exceedance. Additional measures are needed to reduce other PM2.5 sources and components for further progress.

Global health costs of ambient PM2·5 from combustion sources: a modelling study supporting air pollution control strategies.

BACKGROUND: Climate actions targeting combustion sources can generate large ancillary health benefits via associated air-quality improvements. Therefore, understanding the health costs associated with ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) from combustion sources can guide policy design for both air pollution and climate mitigation efforts. METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the health costs attributable to ambient PM2·5 from six major combustion sources across 204 countries using updated concentration-response models and an age-adjusted valuation method. We defined major combustion sources as the sum of total coal, liquid fuel and natural gas, solid biofuel, agricultural waste burning, other fires, and 50% of the anthropogenic fugitive, combustion, and industrial dust source. FINDINGS: Global long-term exposure to ambient PM2·5 from combustion sources imposed US$1·1 (95% uncertainty interval 0·8-1·5) trillion in health costs in 2019, accounting for 56% of the total health costs from all PM2·5 sources. Comparing source contributions to PM2·5 concentrations and health costs, we observed a higher share of health costs from combustion sources compared to their contribution to population-weighted PM2·5 concentration across 134 countries, accounting for more than 87% of the global population. This disparity was primarily attributed to the non-linear relationship between PM2·5 concentration and its associated health costs. Globally, phasing out fossil fuels can generate 23% higher relative health benefits compared to their share of PM2·5 reductions. Specifically, the share of health costs for total coal was 36% higher than the source's contributions to corresponding PM2·5 concentrations and the share of health costs for liquid fuel and natural gas was 12% higher. Other than fossil fuels, South Asia was expected to show 16% greater relative health benefits than the percentage reduction in PM2·5 from the abatement of solid biofuel emissions. INTERPRETATION: In most countries, targeting combustion sources might offer greater health benefits than non-combustion sources. This finding provides additional rationale for climate actions aimed at phasing out combustion sources, especially those related to fossil fuels and solid biofuel. Mitigation efforts designed according to source-specific health costs can more effectively avoid health costs than strategies that depend solely on the source contributions to overall PM2·5 concentration. FUNDING: The Health Effects Institute, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and NASA.

Enhancing Global Estimation of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations by Including Geophysical a Priori Information in Deep Learning.

Global fine particulate matter (PM2.5) assessment is impeded by a paucity of monitors. We improve estimation of the global distribution of PM2.5 concentrations by developing, optimizing, and applying a convolutional neural network with information from satellite-, simulation-, and monitor-based sources to predict the local bias in monthly geophysical a priori PM2.5 concentrations over 1998-2019. We develop a loss function that incorporates geophysical a priori estimates and apply it in model training to address the unrealistic results produced by mean-square-error loss functions in regions with few monitors. We introduce novel spatial cross-validation for air quality to examine the importance of considering spatial properties. We address the sharp decline in deep learning model performance in regions distant from monitors by incorporating the geophysical a priori PM2.5. The resultant monthly PM2.5 estimates are highly consistent with spatial cross-validation PM2.5 concentrations from monitors globally and regionally. We withheld 10% to 99% of monitors for testing to evaluate the sensitivity and robustness of model performance to the density of ground-based monitors. The model incorporating the geophysical a priori PM2.5 concentrations remains highly consistent with observations globally even under extreme conditions (e.g., 1% for training, R2 = 0.73), while the model without exhibits weaker performance (1% for training, R2 = 0.51).

Quantifying Prescribed-Fire Smoke Exposure Using Low-Cost Sensors and Satellites: Springtime Burning in Eastern Kansas.

Prescribed fires (fires intentionally set for mitigation purposes) produce pollutants, which have negative effects on human and animal health. One of the pollutants produced from fires is fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The Flint Hills (FH) region of Kansas experiences extensive prescribed burning each spring (March-May). Smoke from prescribed fires is often understudied due to a lack of monitoring in the rural regions where prescribed burning occurs, as well as the short duration and small size of the fires. Our goal was to attribute PM2.5 concentrations to the prescribed burning in the FH. To determine PM2.5 increases from local burning, we used low-cost PM2.5 sensors (PurpleAir) and satellite observations. The FH were also affected by smoke transported from fires in other regions during 2022. We separated the transported smoke from smoke from fires in eastern Kansas. Based on data from the PurpleAir sensors, we found the 24-hr median PM2.5 to increase by 3.0-5.3 µg m-3 (based on different estimates) on days impacted by smoke from fires in the eastern Kansas region compared to days unimpacted by smoke. The FH region was the most impacted by smoke PM2.5 compared to other regions of Kansas, as observed in satellite products and in situ measurements. Additionally, our study found that hourly PM2.5 estimates from a satellite-derived product aligned with our ground-based measurements. Satellite-derived products are useful in rural areas like the FH, where monitors are scarce, providing important PM2.5 estimates.

Increasing Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Ambient Air Pollution-Attributable Morbidity and Mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5) threaten public health in the US, and systemic racism has led to modern-day disparities in the distribution and associated health impacts of these pollutants. OBJECTIVES: Many studies on environmental injustices related to ambient air pollution focus only on disparities in pollutant concentrations or provide only an assessment of pollution or health disparities at a snapshot in time. In this study, we compare injustices in NO2- and PM2.5-attributable health burdens, considering NO2-attributable health impacts across the entire US; document changing disparities in these health burdens over time (2010-2019); and evaluate how more stringent air quality standards would reduce disparities in health impacts associated with these pollutants. METHODS: Through a health impact assessment, we quantified census tract-level variations in health outcomes attributable to NO2 and PM2.5 using health impact functions that combine demographic data from the US Census Bureau; two spatially resolved pollutant datasets, which fuse satellite data with physical and statistical models; and epidemiologically derived relative risk estimates and incidence rates from the Global Burden of Disease study. RESULTS: Despite overall decreases in the public health damages associated with NO2 and PM2.5, racial and ethnic relative disparities in NO2-attributable pediatric asthma and PM2.5-attributable premature mortality have widened in the US during the last decade. Racial relative disparities in PM2.5-attributable premature mortality and NO2-attributable pediatric asthma have increased by 16% and 19%, respectively, between 2010 and 2019. Similarly, ethnic relative disparities in PM2.5-attributable premature mortality have increased by 40% and NO2-attributable pediatric asthma by 10%. DISCUSSION: Enacting and attaining more stringent air quality standards for both pollutants could preferentially benefit the most marginalized and minoritized communities by greatly reducing racial and ethnic relative disparities in pollution-attributable health burdens in the US. Our methods provide a semi-observational approach to track changes in disparities in air pollution and associated health burdens across the US. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11900.

Inequality in the Distribution of Air Pollution Attributable Mortality Within Canadian Cities.

Recent studies have identified inequality in the distribution of air pollution attributable health impacts, but to our knowledge this has not been examined in Canadian cities. We evaluated the extent and sources of inequality in air pollution attributable mortality at the census tract (CT) level in seven of Canada's largest cities. We first regressed fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) attributable mortality against the neighborhood (CT) level prevalence of age 65 and older, low income, low educational attainment, and identification as an Indigenous (First Nations, Métis, Inuit) or Black person, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We next examined the distribution of baseline mortality rates, PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, and attributable mortality by neighborhood (CT) level prevalence of these characteristics, calculating the concentration index, Atkinson index, and Gini coefficient. Finally, we conducted a counterfactual analysis of the impact of reducing baseline mortality rates and air pollution concentrations on inequality in air pollution attributable mortality. Regression results indicated that CTs with a higher prevalence of low income and Indigenous identity had significantly higher air pollution attributable mortality. Concentration index, Atkinson index, and Gini coefficient values revealed different degrees of inequality among the cities. Counterfactual analysis indicated that inequality in air pollution attributable mortality tended to be driven more by baseline mortality inequalities than exposure inequalities. Reducing inequality in air pollution attributable mortality requires reducing disparities in both baseline mortality and air pollution exposure.

Reversal of trends in global fine particulate matter air pollution.

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Quantification is needed of regional contributions to changes in global PM2.5 exposure. Here we interpret satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates over 1998-2019 and find a reversal of previous growth in global PM2.5 air pollution, which is quantitatively attributed to contributions from 13 regions. Global population-weighted (PW) PM2.5 exposure, related to both pollution levels and population size, increased from 1998 (28.3 µg/m3) to a peak in 2011 (38.9 µg/m3) and decreased steadily afterwards (34.7 µg/m3 in 2019). Post-2011 change was related to exposure reduction in China and slowed exposure growth in other regions (especially South Asia, the Middle East and Africa). The post-2011 exposure reduction contributes to stagnation of growth in global PM2.5-attributable mortality and increasing health benefits per µg/m3 marginal reduction in exposure, implying increasing urgency and benefits of PM2.5 mitigation with aging population and cleaner air.

Fine particulate matter composition in American Indian vs. Non-American Indian communities.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure is a known risk factor for numerous adverse health outcomes, with varying estimates of component-specific effects. Populations with compromised health conditions such as diabetes can be more sensitive to the health impacts of air pollution exposure. Recent trends in PM2.5 in primarily American Indian- (AI-) populated areas examined in previous work declined more gradually compared to the declines observed in the rest of the US. To further investigate components contributing to these findings, we compared trends in concentrations of six PM2.5 components in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties over time (2000-2017) in the contiguous US. METHODS: We implemented component-specific linear mixed models to estimate differences in annual county-level concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic matter, black carbon, and mineral dust from well-validated surface PM2.5 models in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties, using a multi-criteria approach to classify counties as AI- or non-AI-populated. Models adjusted for population density and median household income. We included interaction terms with calendar year to estimate whether concentration differences in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties varied over time. RESULTS: Our final analysis included 3108 counties, with 199 (6.4%) classified as AI-populated. On average across the study period, adjusted concentrations of all six PM2.5 components in AI-populated counties were significantly lower than in non-AI-populated counties. However, component-specific levels in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties varied over time: sulfate and ammonium levels were significantly lower in AI- vs. non-AI-populated counties before 2011 but higher after 2011 and nitrate levels were consistently lower in AI-populated counties. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates time trend differences of specific components by AI-populated county type. Notably, decreases in sulfate and ammonium may contribute to steeper declines in total PM2.5 in non-AI vs. AI-populated counties. These findings provide potential directives for additional monitoring and regulations of key emissions sources impacting tribal lands.

Arctic warming by abundant fine sea salt aerosols from blowing snow.

The Arctic warms nearly four times faster than the global average, and aerosols play an increasingly important role in Arctic climate change. In the Arctic, sea salt is a major aerosol component in terms of mass concentration during winter and spring. However, the mechanisms of sea salt aerosol production remain unclear. Sea salt aerosols are typically thought to be relatively large in size but low in number concentration, implying that their influence on cloud condensation nuclei population and cloud properties is generally minor. Here we present observational evidence of abundant sea salt aerosol production from blowing snow in the central Arctic. Blowing snow was observed more than 20% of the time from November to April. The sublimation of blowing snow generates high concentrations of fine-mode sea salt aerosol (diameter below 300 nm), enhancing cloud condensation nuclei concentrations up to tenfold above background levels. Using a global chemical transport model, we estimate that from November to April north of 70° N, sea salt aerosol produced from blowing snow accounts for about 27.6% of the total particle number, and the sea salt aerosol increases the longwave emissivity of clouds, leading to a calculated surface warming of +2.30 W m-2 under cloudy sky conditions.

Prenatal air pollution, maternal immune activation, and autism spectrum disorder.

BACKGROUND: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) risk is highly heritable, with potential additional non-genetic factors, such as prenatal exposure to ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and maternal immune activation (MIA) conditions. Because these exposures may share common biological effect pathways, we hypothesized that synergistic associations of prenatal air pollution and MIA-related conditions would increase ASD risk in children. OBJECTIVES: This study examined interactions between MIA-related conditions and prenatal PM2.5 or major PM2.5 components on ASD risk. METHODS: In a population-based pregnancy cohort of children born between 2001 and 2014 in Southern California, 318,751 mother-child pairs were followed through electronic medical records (EMR); 4,559 children were diagnosed with ASD before age 5. Four broad categories of MIA-related conditions were classified, including infection, hypertension, maternal asthma, and autoimmune conditions. Average exposures to PM2.5 and four PM2.5 components, black carbon (BC), organic matter (OM), nitrate (NO3-), and sulfate (SO42-), were estimated at maternal residential addresses during pregnancy. We estimated the ASD risk associated with MIA-related conditions, air pollution, and their interactions, using Cox regression models to adjust for covariates. RESULTS: ASD risk was associated with MIA-related conditions [infection (hazard ratio 1.11; 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.18), hypertension (1.30; 1.19-1.42), maternal asthma (1.22; 1.08-1.38), autoimmune disease (1.19; 1.09-1.30)], with higher pregnancy PM2.5 [1.07; 1.03-1.12 per interquartile (3.73 µg/m3) increase] and with all four PM2.5 components. However, there were no interactions of each category of MIA-related conditions with PM2.5 or its components on either multiplicative or additive scales. CONCLUSIONS: MIA-related conditions and pregnancy PM2.5 were independently associations with ASD risk. There were no statistically significant interactions of MIA conditions and prenatal PM2.5 exposure with ASD risk.

Satellite reveals a steep decline in China's CO2 emissions in early 2022.

Response actions to the coronavirus disease 2019 perturbed economies and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The Omicron variant that emerged in 2022 caused more substantial infections than in 2020 and 2021 but it has not yet been ascertained whether Omicron interrupted the temporary post-2021 rebound of CO2 emissions. Here, using satellite nitrogen dioxide observations combined with atmospheric inversion, we show a larger decline in China's CO2 emissions between January and April 2022 than in those months during the first wave of 2020. China's CO2 emissions are estimated to have decreased by 15% (equivalent to -244.3 million metric tons of CO2) during the 2022 lockdown, greater than the 9% reduction during the 2020 lockdown. Omicron affected most of the populated and industrial provinces in 2022, hindering China's CO2 emissions rebound starting from 2021. China's emission variations agreed with downstream CO2 concentration changes, indicating a potential to monitor CO2 emissions by integrating satellite and ground measurements.

Source Contributions to Fine Particulate Matter and Attributable Mortality in India and the Surrounding Region.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure is a leading mortality risk factor in India and the surrounding region of South Asia. This study evaluates the contribution of emission sectors and fuels to PM2.5 mass for 29 states in India and 6 surrounding countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar) by combining source-specific emission estimates, stretched grid simulations from a chemical transport model, high resolution hybrid PM2.5, and disease-specific mortality estimates. We find that 1.02 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.78-1.26) million deaths in South Asia attributable to ambient PM2.5 in 2019 were primarily from three leading sectors: residential combustion (28%), industry (15%), and power generation (12%). Solid biofuel is the leading combustible fuel contributing to the PM2.5-attributable mortality (31%), followed by coal (17%), and oil and gas (14%). State-level analyses reveal higher residential combustion contributions (35%-39%) in states (Delhi, Uttar-Pradesh, Haryana) with high ambient PM2.5 (>95 µg/m3). The combined mortality burden associated with residential combustion (ambient) and household air pollution (HAP) in India is 0.72 million (95% CI:0.54-0.89) (68% attributable to HAP, 32% attributable to residential combustion). Our results illustrate the potential to reduce PM2.5 mass and improve population health by reducing emissions from traditional energy sources across multiple sectors in South Asia.

Advances in Simulating the Global Spatial Heterogeneity of Air Quality and Source Sector Contributions: Insights into the Global South.

High-resolution simulations are essential to resolve fine-scale air pollution patterns due to localized emissions, nonlinear chemical feedbacks, and complex meteorology. However, high-resolution global simulations of air quality remain rare, especially of the Global South. Here, we exploit recent developments to the GEOS-Chem model in its high-performance implementation to conduct 1-year simulations in 2015 at cubed-sphere C360 (∼25 km) and C48 (∼200 km) resolutions. We investigate the resolution dependence of population exposure and sectoral contributions to surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), focusing on understudied regions. Our results indicate pronounced spatial heterogeneity at high resolution (C360) with large global population-weighted normalized root-mean-square difference (PW-NRMSD) across resolutions for primary (62-126%) and secondary (26-35%) PM2.5 species. Developing regions are more sensitive to spatial resolution resulting from sparse pollution hotspots, with PW-NRMSD for PM2.5 in the Global South (33%), 1.3 times higher than globally. The PW-NRMSD for PM2.5 for discrete southern cities (49%) is substantially higher than for more clustered northern cities (28%). We find that the relative order of sectoral contributions to population exposure depends on simulation resolution, with implications for location-specific air pollution control strategies.

A cross-sectional analysis of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and haemoglobin levels in children aged under 5 years living in 36 countries.

Low haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations and anaemia in children have adverse effects on development and functioning, some of which may have consequences in later life. Exposure to ambient air pollution is reported to be associated with anaemia, but there is little evidence specific to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where childhood anaemia prevalence is greatest. We aimed to determine if long-term ambient fine particulate matter (≤2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5]) exposure was associated with Hb levels and the prevalence of anaemia in children aged <5 years living in 36 LMICs. We used Demographic and Health Survey data, collected between 2010 and 2019, which included blood Hb measurements. Satellite-derived estimates of annual average PM2.5 was the main exposure variable, which was linked to children's area of residence. Anaemia was defined according to standard World Health Organization guidelines (Hb < 11 g/dL). The association of PM2.5 with Hb levels and anaemia prevalence was examined using multivariable linear and logistic regression models, respectively. We examined whether the effects of ambient PM2.5 were modified by a child's sex and age, household wealth index, and urban/rural place of residence. Models were adjusted for relevant covariates, including other outdoor pollutants and household cooking fuel. The study included 154,443 children, of which 89,904 (58.2%) were anaemic. The country-level prevalence of anaemia ranged from 15.8% to 87.9%. Mean PM2.5 exposure was 33.0 (±21.6) µg/m3. The adjusted model showed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5 concentration was associated with greater odds of anaemia (OR = 1.098 95% CI: 1.087, 1.109). The same increase in PM2.5 was associated with a decrease in average Hb levels of 0.075 g/dL (95% CI: 0.081, 0.068). There was evidence of effect modification by household wealth index and place of residence, with greater adverse effects in children from lower wealth quintiles and children in rural areas. Exposure to annual PM2.5 was cross-sectionally associated with decreased blood Hb levels, and greater risk of anaemia, in children aged <5 years living in 36 LMICs.

Using Parametric g-Computation to Estimate the Effect of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality Risk and Simulate the Benefits of Hypothetical Policies: The Canadian Community Health Survey Cohort (2005 to 2015).

BACKGROUND: Numerous epidemiological studies have documented the adverse health impact of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter [particulate matter ≤2.5µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] on mortality even at relatively low levels. However, methodological challenges remain to consider potential regulatory intervention's complexity and provide actionable evidence on the predicted benefits of interventions. We propose the parametric g-computation as an alternative analytical approach to such challenges. METHOD: We applied the parametric g-computation to estimate the cumulative risks of nonaccidental death under different hypothetical intervention strategies targeting long-term exposure to PM2.5 in the Canadian Community Health Survey cohort from 2005 to 2015. On both relative and absolute scales, we explored the benefits of hypothetical intervention strategies compared with the natural course that a) set the simulated exposure value at each follow-up year to a threshold value if exposure was above the threshold (8.8 µg/m3, 7.04 µg/m3, 5 µg/m3, and 4 µg/m3), and b) reduced the simulated exposure value by a percentage (5% and 10%) at each follow-up year. We used the 3-y average PM2.5 concentration with 1-y lag at the postal code of respondents' annual mailing addresses as their long-term exposure to PM2.5. We considered baseline and time-varying confounders, including demographics, behavior characteristics, income level, and neighborhood socioeconomic status. We also included the R syntax for reproducibility and replication. RESULTS: All hypothetical intervention strategies explored led to lower 11-y cumulative mortality risks than the estimated value under the natural course without intervention, with the smallest reduction of 0.20 per 1,000 participants (95% CI: 0.06, 0.34) under the threshold of 8.8 µg/m3, and the largest reduction of 3.40 per 1,000 participants (95% CI: -0.23, 7.03) under the relative reduction of 10% per interval. The reductions in cumulative risk, or numbers of deaths that would have been prevented if the intervention was employed instead of maintaining the status quo, increased over time but flattened toward the end of the follow-up period. Estimates among those ≥65 years of age were greater with a similar pattern. Our estimates were robust to different model specifications. DISCUSSION: We found evidence that any intervention further reducing the long-term exposure to PM2.5 would reduce the cumulative mortality risk, with greater benefits in the older population, even in a population already exposed to low levels of ambient PM2.5. The parametric g-computation used in this study provides flexibilities in simulating real-world interventions, accommodates time-varying exposure and confounders, and estimates adjusted survival curves with clearer interpretation and more information than a single hazard ratio, making it a valuable analytical alternative in air pollution epidemiological research. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11095.

Effects of long-term ambient air pollution exposure on township-level pulmonary tuberculosis notification rates during 2005-2017 in Ningxia, China.

Studies examining long-term effects of ambient air pollution exposure, measured as annual averages, on pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence are scarce, particularly in endemic, rural settings. We performed a small-area study in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), a high TB-burden area in rural China, using township-level (n = 358 non-overlapping townships) annual TB notification data (2005-2017). We aimed to determine if annual average concentrations of ambient air pollution (particulate matter <2·5 µm [PM2·5], nitrogen dioxide [NO2] ozone [O3]) were associated with TB notification rates (as a proxy for incidence). Air pollution effects on TB notification rates at township-level were estimated as incidence rate ratios (IRR), fitted using a generalised estimating equation (GEE) adjusted for covariates (age, sex, occupation, education, ethnicity, remoteness [urban or rural], household crowding and solid fuel use). A total of 38,942 TB notifications were reported in NHAR between 2005 and 2017. The mean annual TB notification rate was 67 (standard deviation [SD]; 7) per 100,000 people. Median concentrations of PM2·5, NO2, and O3 were 42 µg/m3 (interquartile range [IQR]; 38-48 µg/m3), 15 ppb (IQR; 12-16 ppb), and 56 ppb (IQR; 56-57 ppb), respectively. In single pollutant models, adjusted for covariates, an interquartile range (IQR) increase (10 µg/m3) in PM2·5 was significantly associated with higher TB notification rates (IRR: 1∙35; 95% CI: 1·25-1·48). Comparable effects on notifications of TB were observed for increases in NO2 exposure (IRR: 1·20 per IQR (4 ppb) increase; 95% CI: 1·08-1·31). Ground-level ozone was not associated with TB notification rate in any models. The observed effects were consistent over time, in multi-pollutant models, and appeared robust to additional adjustment for indicators of household crowding, solid fuel use and remoteness. More rigorous study designs are needed to understand if improving air quality has population-level benefits on TB disease incidence in endemic settings.

Associations of Autism Spectrum Disorder with PM2.5 Components: A Comparative Study Using Two Different Exposure Models.

This retrospective cohort study examined associations of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) with prenatal exposure to major fine particulate matter (PM2.5) components estimated using two independent exposure models. The cohort included 318 750 mother-child pairs with singleton deliveries in Kaiser Permanente Southern California hospitals from 2001 to 2014 and followed until age five. ASD cases during follow-up (N = 4559) were identified by ICD codes. Prenatal exposures to PM2.5, elemental (EC) and black carbon (BC), organic matter (OM), nitrate (NO3-), and sulfate (SO42-) were constructed using (i) a source-oriented chemical transport model and (ii) a hybrid model. Exposures were assigned to each maternal address during the entire pregnancy, first, second, and third trimester. In single-pollutant models, ASD was associated with pregnancy-average PM2.5, EC/BC, OM, and SO42- exposures from both exposure models, after adjustment for covariates. The direction of effect estimates was consistent for EC/BC and OM and least consistent for NO3-. EC/BC, OM, and SO42- were generally robust to adjustment for other components and for PM2.5. EC/BC and OM effect estimates were generally larger and more consistent in the first and second trimester and SO42- in the third trimester. Future PM2.5 composition health effect studies might consider using multiple exposure models and a weight of evidence approach when interpreting effect estimates.