Relationship between syringomyelia and myxomatous mitral valve disease in Cavalier King Charles spaniels.

BACKGROUND: Syringomyelia (SM) and myxomatous mitral valve disease (MMVD) are highly prevalent in Cavalier King Charles spaniels (CKCS). Cardiac status in CKCS with and without SM is currently unknown. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between SM and MMVD severity in CKCS and CKCS with SM with and without clinical signs of SM. ANIMALS: Fifty-five CKCS: 40 with SM (22 symptomatic and 18 asymptomatic) and 15 without SM. METHODS: A combined retrospective and prospective study. MRI and echocardiography were used to diagnose SM and MMVD, respectively. The association between SM and MMVD severity (left ventricle internal diameter in diastole normalized to bodyweight [LVIDDN] and left atrium to aortic ratio [LA/Ao]) were tested using multivariable linear regression analysis adjusting for sex and age. RESULTS: Overall, no significant difference in LVIDDN and LA/Ao was found between CKCS with or without SM. However, CKCS with symptomatic SM had significantly smaller LVIDDN (1.45 [1.30-1.50]) (median [IQR]) and LA/Ao (1.20 [1.10-1.28]) compared to CKCS with asymptomatic SM (1.60 [1.50-1.90] and 1.40 [1.20-1.75]) as well as CKCS without SM (0.24 [0.03-0.45] and 0.30 [0.05-0.56]) (all P values <.03). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: An association between MMVD and SM was not confirmed in this cohort of CKCS, indicating that MMVD and SM do not co-segregate. However, CKCS with symptomatic SM had smaller left ventricle and atrial size compared to CKCS with asymptomatic SM and CKCS without SM.

Estimation of separable direct and indirect effects in a continuous-time illness-death model.

In this article we study the effect of a baseline exposure on a terminal time-to-event outcome either directly or mediated by the illness state of a continuous-time illness-death process with baseline covariates. We propose a definition of the corresponding direct and indirect effects using the concept of separable (interventionist) effects (Robins and Richardson in Causality and psychopathology: finding the determinants of disorders and their cures, Oxford University Press, 2011; Robins et al. in arXiv:2008.06019 , 2021; Stensrud et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 117:175-183, 2022). Our proposal generalizes Martinussen and Stensrud (Biometrics 79:127-139, 2023) who consider similar causal estimands for disentangling the causal treatment effects on the event of interest and competing events in the standard continuous-time competing risk model. Unlike natural direct and indirect effects (Robins and Greenland in Epidemiology 3:143-155, 1992; Pearl in Proceedings of the seventeenth conference on uncertainty in artificial intelligence, Morgan Kaufmann, 2001) which are usually defined through manipulations of the mediator independently of the exposure (so-called cross-world interventions), separable direct and indirect effects are defined through interventions on different components of the exposure that exert their effects through distinct causal mechanisms. This approach allows us to define meaningful mediation targets even though the mediating event is truncated by the terminal event. We present the conditions for identifiability, which include some arguably restrictive structural assumptions on the treatment mechanism, and discuss when such assumptions are valid. The identifying functionals are used to construct plug-in estimators for the separable direct and indirect effects. We also present multiply robust and asymptotically efficient estimators based on the efficient influence functions. We verify the theoretical properties of the estimators in a simulation study, and we demonstrate the use of the estimators using data from a Danish registry study.

Inverse probability of treatment weighting with generalized linear outcome models for doubly robust estimation.

There are now many options for doubly robust estimation; however, there is a concerning trend in the applied literature to believe that the combination of a propensity score and an adjusted outcome model automatically results in a doubly robust estimator and/or to misuse more complex established doubly robust estimators. A simple alternative, canonical link generalized linear models (GLM) fit via inverse probability of treatment (propensity score) weighted maximum likelihood estimation followed by standardization (the g $$ g $$ -formula) for the average causal effect, is a doubly robust estimation method. Our aim is for the reader not just to be able to use this method, which we refer to as IPTW GLM, for doubly robust estimation, but to fully understand why it has the doubly robust property. For this reason, we define clearly, and in multiple ways, all concepts needed to understand the method and why it is doubly robust. In addition, we want to make very clear that the mere combination of propensity score weighting and an adjusted outcome model does not generally result in a doubly robust estimator. Finally, we hope to dispel the misconception that one can adjust for residual confounding remaining after propensity score weighting by adjusting in the outcome model for what remains 'unbalanced' even when using doubly robust estimators. We provide R code for our simulations and real open-source data examples that can be followed step-by-step to use and hopefully understand the IPTW GLM method. We also compare to a much better-known but still simple doubly robust estimator.

Functional and morphological renal changes in a Göttingen Minipig model of obesity-related and diabetic nephropathy.

Obesity-related glomerulopathy and diabetic nephropathy (DN) are serious complications to metabolic syndrome and diabetes. The purpose was to study effects of a fat, fructose and cholesterol-rich (FFC) diet with and without salt in order to induce hypertension on kidney function and morphology in Göttingen Minipigs with and without diabetes. Male Göttingen Minipigs were divided into 4 groups: SD (standard diet, n = 8), FFC (FFC diet, n = 16), FFC-DIA (FFC diet + diabetes, n = 14), FFC-DIA + S (FFC diet with extra salt + diabetes, n = 14). Blood and urine biomarkers, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), blood pressure (BP) and resistive index (RI) were evaluated after 6-7 months (T1) and 12-13 months (T2). Histology, electron microscopy and gene expression (excluding FFC-DIA + S) were evaluated at T2. All groups fed FFC-diet displayed obesity, increased GFR and RI, glomerulomegaly, mesangial expansion (ME) and glomerular basement membrane (GBM) thickening. Diabetes on top of FFC diet led to increased plasma glucose and urea and proteinuria and tended to exacerbate the glomerulomegaly, ME and GBM thickening. Four genes (CDKN1A, NPHS2, ACE, SLC2A1) were significantly deregulated in FFC and/or FFC-DIA compared to SD. No effects on BP were observed. Göttingen Minipigs fed FFC diet displayed some of the renal early changes seen in human obesity. Presence of diabetes on top of FFC diet exacerbated the findings and lead to changes resembling the early phases of human DN.

Estimation of separable direct and indirect effects in continuous time.

Many research questions involve time-to-event outcomes that can be prevented from occurring due to competing events. In these settings, we must be careful about the causal interpretation of classical statistical estimands. In particular, estimands on the hazard scale, such as ratios of cause-specific or subdistribution hazards, are fundamentally hard to interpret causally. Estimands on the risk scale, such as contrasts of cumulative incidence functions, do have a clear causal interpretation, but they only capture the total effect of the treatment on the event of interest; that is, effects both through and outside of the competing event. To disentangle causal treatment effects on the event of interest and competing events, the separable direct and indirect effects were recently introduced. Here we provide new results on the estimation of direct and indirect separable effects in continuous time. In particular, we derive the nonparametric influence function in continuous time and use it to construct an estimator that has certain robustness properties. We also propose a simple estimator based on semiparametric models for the two cause-specific hazard functions. We describe the asymptotic properties of these estimators and present results from simulation studies, suggesting that the estimators behave satisfactorily in finite samples. Finally, we reanalyze the prostate cancer trial from Stensrud et al. (2020).

Instrumental variable estimation of the causal hazard ratio.

Cox's proportional hazards model is one of the most popular statistical models to evaluate associations of exposure with a censored failure time outcome. When confounding factors are not fully observed, the exposure hazard ratio estimated using a Cox model is subject to unmeasured confounding bias. To address this, we propose a novel approach for the identification and estimation of the causal hazard ratio in the presence of unmeasured confounding factors. Our approach is based on a binary instrumental variable, and an additional no-interaction assumption in a first-stage regression of the treatment on the IV and unmeasured confounders. We propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first consistent estimator of the (population) causal hazard ratio within an instrumental variable framework. A version of our estimator admits a closed-form representation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of our estimator and provide a consistent estimator for its asymptotic variance. Our approach is illustrated via simulation studies and a data application.

Rejoinder to discussions on "Instrumental variable estimation of the causal hazard ratio".

In this paper, we respond to comments on our paper, "Instrumental variable estimation of the causal hazard ratio."

Discussion of "A formal causal interpretation of the case-crossover design".

Discussion on "A formal causal interpretation of the case-crossover design" by Zach Shahn, Miguel A. Hernan, and James M. Robins.

Development of upper gastrointestinal cancer in patients with symptomatic gallstones, cholecystectomy, and sphincterotomy: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Exposures of gallstones and treatments thereof in relation to development of cancer have not been explored before in long-term follow-up studies. Our objective was to determine whether symptomatic gallstones, cholecystectomy, or sphincterotomy were associated with development of upper gastrointestinal cancers. METHODS: This is a nationwide cohort study of persons born in Denmark 1930-1984 included from age 30 years with long-term follow-up (1977-2014). Exposures were hospital admissions with gallstones, cholecystectomy, and sphincterotomy. Time-varying covariates were included in analyses to allow the impact of exposures to change with time. Follow-up periods were 2-5 and > 5 years. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. RESULTS: A total of 4,465,962 persons were followed. We found positive associations between sphincterotomy and biliary (>5 years HR 4.34, CI [2.17-8.70]), gallbladder (2-5 years HR 20.7, CI [8.55-50.1]), and pancreatic cancer (2-5 years HR 3.68, CI [2.09-6.49]). Cholecystectomy was positively associated with duodenal (2-5 years HR 2.94, CI [1.31-6.58]) and small bowel cancer (2-5 years HR 2.75, CI [1.56-4.87]). Inverse associations were seen for cholecystectomy and biliary (>5 years HR 0.60, CI [0.41-0.87]), pancreatic (>5 years HR 0.45 CI [0.35-0.57]), esophageal (>5 years HR 0.57, CI [0.43-0.74]), and gastric cancer (>5 years HR 0.68, CI [0.55-0.86]) and for gallstones and pancreatic cancer (>5 years HR 0.66, CI [0.47-0.93]). Gallstones were positively associated with gallbladder (>5 years HR 3.51, CI [2.02-6.10]) and small bowel cancer (2-5 years HR 3.21, CI [1.60-6.45]). CONCLUSIONS: A positive association between sphincterotomy and biliary cancer was identified. Cholecystectomy seems to be inversely associated with biliary, pancreatic, esophageal, and gastric cancer. Associations should be explored in similar large cohorts.

Maternal intake of folate during pregnancy and risk of cerebral palsy in the MOBAND-CP cohort.

BACKGROUND: Folate prevents neural tube defects and may play a role in some neurodevelopmental disorders. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether higher intakes of periconceptional or midpregnancy folate, as recommended, were associated with a reduced risk of offspring cerebral palsy (CP). METHODS: We included participants from the Nordic collaboration cohort consisting of mother-child dyads in the Danish National Birth Cohort and the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study [combined as MOthers and BAbies in Norway and Denmark (MOBAND-CP)]. A total of 190,989 live-born children surviving the first year of life were included. Missing covariate data were multiply imputed. Our exposures were defined as any or no folic acid supplementation in gestational weeks (GWs) -4 to 8 (periconceptional), 9 to 12, and -4 to 12, and supplemental, dietary, and total folate during midpregnancy (GWs 22-25). CP overall and the unilateral and bilateral spastic subtypes, as well as CP with low or moderate/high gross motor function impairments, were our outcomes of interest. RESULTS: Periconceptional folic acid supplementation was not associated with CP [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.02; 95% CI: 0.82-1.28]. However, supplementation in GWs 9 to 12 was associated with a reduced risk of CP (aOR, 0.74; 95% CI: 0.57-0.96), and inverse associations were indicated for both the unilateral (aOR, 0.68; 95% CI: 0.46-1.02) and bilateral (aOR, 0.70; 95% CI: 0.49-1.02) spastic subtypes, although the associations were not statistically significant. Supplemental or dietary folate in midpregnancy alone were not associated with CP. Strong inverse associations were observed with low gross motor function impairment (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI: 0.29-0.83), while for unilateral CP the aOR was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.34-1.22) for intakes of ≥500 compared to ≤199 dietary folate equivalents/day during midpregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that folate intakes in GWs 9 to 12 and midpregnancy were associated with lower risks of CP, while no association was observed for periconceptional supplementation.

Atorvastatin impairs liver mitochondrial function in obese Göttingen Minipigs but heart and skeletal muscle are not affected.

Statins lower the risk of cardiovascular events but have been associated with mitochondrial functional changes in a tissue-dependent manner. We investigated tissue-specific modifications of mitochondrial function in liver, heart and skeletal muscle mediated by chronic statin therapy in a Göttingen Minipig model. We hypothesized that statins enhance the mitochondrial function in heart but impair skeletal muscle and liver mitochondria. Mitochondrial respiratory capacities, citrate synthase activity, coenzyme Q10 concentrations and protein carbonyl content (PCC) were analyzed in samples of liver, heart and skeletal muscle from three groups of Göttingen Minipigs: a lean control group (CON, n = 6), an obese group (HFD, n = 7) and an obese group treated with atorvastatin for 28 weeks (HFD + ATO, n = 7). Atorvastatin concentrations were analyzed in each of the three tissues and in plasma from the Göttingen Minipigs. In treated minipigs, atorvastatin was detected in the liver and in plasma. A significant reduction in complex I + II-supported mitochondrial respiratory capacity was seen in liver of HFD + ATO compared to HFD (P = 0.022). Opposite directed but insignificant modifications of mitochondrial respiratory capacity were seen in heart versus skeletal muscle in HFD + ATO compared to the HFD group. In heart muscle, the HFD + ATO had significantly higher PCC compared to the HFD group (P = 0.0323). In the HFD group relative to CON, liver mitochondrial respiration decreased whereas in skeletal muscle, respiration increased but these changes were insignificant when normalizing for mitochondrial content. Oral atorvastatin treatment in Göttingen Minipigs is associated with a reduced mitochondrial respiratory capacity in the liver that may be linked to increased content of atorvastatin in this organ.

Analysis of time-to-event for observational studies: Guidance to the use of intensity models.

This paper provides guidance for researchers with some mathematical background on the conduct of time-to-event analysis in observational studies based on intensity (hazard) models. Discussions of basic concepts like time axis, event definition and censoring are given. Hazard models are introduced, with special emphasis on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. We provide check lists that may be useful both when fitting the model and assessing its goodness of fit and when interpreting the results. Special attention is paid to how to avoid problems with immortal time bias by introducing time-dependent covariates. We discuss prediction based on hazard models and difficulties when attempting to draw proper causal conclusions from such models. Finally, we present a series of examples where the methods and check lists are exemplified. Computational details and implementation using the freely available R software are documented in Supplementary Material. The paper was prepared as part of the STRATOS initiative.

Pharmacokinetics of Repeated Oral Dosing with Coenzyme Q10 in Cavalier King Charles Spaniels with Myxomatous Mitral Valve Disease.

Coenzyme Q10 (Q10) is a mitochondrial cofactor and an antioxidant with the potential to combat oxidative stress in heart failure. This study aims to determine the pharmacokinetics of repeated oral dosing of Q10 in Cavalier King Charles Spaniels (CKCS) with spontaneous myxomatous mitral valve disease (MMVD) and to evaluate echocardiographic parameters, circulating cardiac biomarkers, and quality of life (QoL) after treatment. The study is a randomized, placebo-controlled, single-blinded crossover study. Nineteen CKCS with MMVD were randomized to receive 100 mg Q10 (ubiquinone) bi-daily for three weeks, then placebo (or in reverse order). Clinical examination, blood sampling, echocardiography, and QoL assessment were performed before and after each treatment phase. Q10 plasma concentrations were determined in plasma using a validated high-performance liquid chromatography method using electrochemical detection (HPLC-ECD). Eighteen CKCS were included in the analyses. Total plasma concentration of Q10 increased significantly (p < 0.0001) from baseline (median, 0.92 µg/mL; interquartile range (IQR), 0.70-1.26) to after treatment (median, 3.51 µg/mL; IQR, 2.30-6.88). Thirteen dogs reached the threshold of a total plasma Q10 concentration of ≥2.0 µg/mL. The average half-life (T1/2) of Q10 was 2.95 days (IQR, 1.75-4.02). No significant differences were observed in clinical MMVD severity, and the owner perceived QoL between Q10 and placebo treatment. The solubilized Q10 formulation was well-tolerated in the dogs. Individual variation in plasma concentrations was observed following oral treatment. A long-term placebo-controlled trial is warranted in dogs with MMVD to determine long-term efficacy on the clinical severity of MMVD.

Subtleties in the interpretation of hazard contrasts.

The hazard ratio is one of the most commonly reported measures of treatment effect in randomised trials, yet the source of much misinterpretation. This point was made clear by Hernán (Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass) 21(1):13-15, 2010) in a commentary, which emphasised that the hazard ratio contrasts populations of treated and untreated individuals who survived a given period of time, populations that will typically fail to be comparable-even in a randomised trial-as a result of different pressures or intensities acting on different populations. The commentary has been very influential, but also a source of surprise and confusion. In this note, we aim to provide more insight into the subtle interpretation of hazard ratios and differences, by investigating in particular what can be learned about a treatment effect from the hazard ratio becoming 1 (or the hazard difference 0) after a certain period of time. We further define a hazard ratio that has a causal interpretation and study its relationship to the Cox hazard ratio, and we also define a causal hazard difference. These quantities are of theoretical interest only, however, since they rely on assumptions that cannot be empirically evaluated. Throughout, we will focus on the analysis of randomised experiments.

S100B and NSE in Cluster Headache - Evidence for Glial Cell Activation?

OBJECTIVE: Neuronal-specific enolase (NSE) and protein S100B have gained considerable interest as the markers of CNS injury, glial cell activation, and/or blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption. No studies have investigated NSE and S100B in cluster headache (CH), but these biomarkers could contribute to the understanding of CH. METHODS: Patients with episodic CH in bout (eCHa), in remission (eCHr), and chronic CH (cCH) were included in this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2-way cross-over provocation study carried out at the Danish Headache Center. The primary endpoints included (1) differences of NSE and S100B in between groups (eCHa, eCHr, and cCH) at baseline; (2) differences over time in plasma concentrations of NSE and S100B between patient developing an attack and those who did not; (3) differences in plasma concentrations over time of NSE and S100B between active day and placebo day. Baseline findings were compared to the historical data on migraine patients and healthy controls and presented with means ± SD. RESULTS: Nine eCHa, 9 eCHr, and 13 cCH patients completed the study and blood samples from 11 CGRP-induced CH attacks were obtained. There were no differences in NSE levels between CH groups at baseline, but CH patients in active disease phase had higher levels compared with 32 migraine patients (9.1 ± 2.2 µg/L vs 6.0 ± 2.2 µg/L, P < .0001) and 6 healthy controls (9.1 ± 2.2 µg/L vs 7.3 ± 2.0 µg/L, P = .007). CGRP-infusion caused no NSE changes and, but a slight, non-significant, increase in NSE was seen in patients who reported a CGRP-induced CH attack (2.39 µg/L, 95% Cl [-0.26, 3.85], P = .061). At baseline S100B levels in eCHa patients were higher compared to cCH patients (0.06 ± 0.02 µg/L vs 0.04 ± 0.02 µg/L, P = .018). Infusion of CGRP and CGRP-induced attacks did not change S100B levels. Apart from induced CH-attacks no other adverse events were noted. CONCLUSIONS: At baseline eCHa patients had higher S100B plasma levels than cCH patients and there was a slight, however not significant, NSE increase in response to CGRP-induced CH attack. Our findings suggest a possible role of an ictal activation of glial cells in CH pathophysiology, but further studies are warranted.

Rivaroxaban Versus Apixaban for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: An Instrumental Variable Analysis of a Nationwide Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The comparative effectiveness of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) is uncertain, as they have not been compared directly in randomized trials. Previous observational comparisons of NOACs are likely to be biased by unmeasured confounders. We sought to compare the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban and apixaban for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), using practice variation in preference for NOAC as an instrumental variable. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients started on apixaban or rivaroxaban after newly diagnosed AF were identified using Danish nationwide registries. Patients were categorized according to facility preferences for type of NOAC, independent of actual treatment, measured as fraction of the prior 20 patients with AF initiated on rivaroxaban in the same facility. Facility preference for NOAC was used as an instrumental variable. The occurrence of stroke/thromboembolism, major bleeding, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality over 2 years of follow-up were investigated using adjusted Cox regressions. We analyzed 6264 patients with AF initiated on rivaroxaban or apixaban. NOAC preference was strongly related to actual choice of treatment but not associated with any other measured baseline characteristics. Patients treated in facilities that had preference for rivaroxaban had more major bleeding: compared with patients treated in facilities that used rivaroxaban in 0% to 20% of cases, the adjusted hazard ratio for bleeding was 1.06 when treated in a facility with 25% to 40% use; 1.41 with 45% to 60% use; 1.51 with 65% to 80% use; and 1.81 with 0% to 100% use (Ptrend=0.01). Higher facility preference for rivaroxaban was not significantly associated with increased risk of stroke/thromboembolism (Ptrend=0.06), myocardial infarction (Ptrend=0.65), or all-cause mortality (Ptrend=0.89). When we used the instrumental variable to model the causal relationship between choice of NOAC and major bleeding, relative risk with rivaroxaban was 1.89 (95% CI, 1.06-2.72) compared with apixaban. CONCLUSIONS: Using instrumental variable estimation in a cohort of patients with AF, rivaroxaban was associated with higher risk of major bleeding compared with apixaban. No significant associations to other outcomes were found in main analyses.

Instrumental variables estimation with competing risk data.

Time-to-event analyses are often plagued by both-possibly unmeasured-confounding and competing risks. To deal with the former, the use of instrumental variables (IVs) for effect estimation is rapidly gaining ground. We show how to make use of such variables in competing risk analyses. In particular, we show how to infer the effect of an arbitrary exposure on cause-specific hazard functions under a semi-parametric model that imposes relatively weak restrictions on the observed data distribution. The proposed approach is flexible accommodating exposures and IVs of arbitrary type, and enabling covariate adjustment. It makes use of closed-form estimators that can be recursively calculated, and is shown to perform well in simulation studies. We also demonstrate its use in an application on the effect of mammography screening on the risk of dying from breast cancer.

Ovarian reserve markers after discontinuing long-term use of combined oral contraceptives.

RESEARCH QUESTION: How early do the ovarian reserve markers anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and antral follicle count (AFC) normalize after discontinuation of the long-term use of combined oral contraceptives (COC). DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study of 68 women with a history of long-term COC use. Serum AMH concentrations, ovarian volume and AFC were measured during COC use and serially in a 4-month period after discontinuing COC: 1 and 2 weeks after discontinuation, and on cycle day 2-5 during three consecutive menstrual cycles. Changes in AMH and AFC were investigated using linear mixed models of repeated measurements adjusted for relevant covariates. RESULTS: Mean age was 29.4 years and mean duration of COC use 8.0 years. Baseline median AMH concentrations during COC use of 13 pmol/l (interquartile range [IQR] 8.4-22 pmol/l) increased to a median of 22.5 pmol/l (IQR 11-37 mol/l) 3 months after discontinuation. The estimated average increase was 53% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40-1.68, P < 0.001). AFC increased from a median value of 17 (IQR 11-25) to 24 (IQR 17-34). The estimated average increase was 41% (95% CI 1.30-1.52, P < 0.001). Ovarian volume increased from 2.4 to 5.8 ml (P < 0.001). The ovarian reserve markers increased continuously from baseline measurements until 2 months after discontinuation. Thereafter a plateau was reached. CONCLUSION: After discontinuation of COC, AMH increased by 53% and AFC by 41%, with values returning to normal within 2 months. This study provides clinicians with the highly relevant knowledge that AMH and AFC can be measured 2 months after discontinuation of COC without having to account for their influence.