The impact of Covid-19 vaccination on the Italian healthcare system: a scenario analysis

IntroductionThe objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the national immunisation strategy for Covid-19 in Italy on the national healthcare system. MethodsAn epidemiological scenario analysis was developed in order to simulate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian national healthcare system in 2021. Hospitalisations, ICU admissions and death rates were modelled based on 2020 data. We forecast the impact of the introduction of a primary prevention strategy on the national healthcare system by considering vaccine efficacy, availability of doses and potential population coverage over time. ResultsIn the absence of immunisation, between 57,000 and 63,000 additional deaths are forecast in 2021. Based on the assumptions underlying the two epidemiological scenarios from the 2020 data, our model predicts that cumulative hospital admissions in 2021 will range from 3.4 to 3.9 million. The deployment of vaccine immunisation has the potential to control the evolution of 2021 infections and avoid from 60 to 67 percent of deaths compared to not vaccinating. ConclusionsIn order to inform Italian policymakers on delivering a mass vaccination programme, this study highlights and detects some key factors that must be controlled to ensure that immunisation targets will be met in reasonable time.

Differential plasmacytoid dendritic cell phenotype and type I Interferon response in asymptomatic and severe COVID-19 infection

SARS-CoV-2 fine-tunes the interferon (IFN)-induced antiviral responses, which play a key role in preventing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) progression. Indeed, critically ill patients show an impaired type I IFN response accompanied by elevated inflammatory cytokine and chemokine levels, responsible for cell and tissue damage and associated multi-organ failure. Here, the early interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and immune cells was investigated by interrogating an in vitro human peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC)-based experimental model. We found that, even in absence of a productive viral replication, the virus mediates a vigorous TLR7/8-dependent production of both type I and III IFNs and inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, known to contribute to the cytokine storm observed in COVID-19. Interestingly, we observed how virus-induced type I IFN secreted by PBMC enhances anti-viral response in infected lung epithelial cells, thus, inhibiting viral replication. This type I IFN was released by plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDC) via an ACE-2-indipendent mechanism. Viral sensing regulates pDC phenotype by inducing cell surface expression of PD-L1 marker, a feature of type I IFN producing cells. Coherently to what observed in vitro, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects displayed a similar pDC phenotype associated to a very high serum type I IFN level and induction of anti-viral IFN-stimulated genes in PBMC. Conversely, hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 display very low frequency of circulating pDC with an inflammatory phenotype and high levels of chemokines and pro-inflammatory cytokines in serum. This study further shed light on the early events resulting from the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and immune cells occurring in vitro and confirmed ex vivo. These observations can improve our understanding on the contribution of pDC/type I IFN axis in the regulation of the anti-viral state in asymptomatic and severe COVID-19 patients. Author summarySARS-CoV-2 pandemic has resulted in millions of infections and deaths worldwide, yet the role of host innate immune responses in COVID-19 pathogenesis remains only partially characterized. Innate immunity represents the first line of host defense against viruses. Upon viral recognition, the secretion of type I and III interferons (IFN) establishes the cellular state of viral resistance, and contributes to induce the specific adaptive immune responses. Moving from in vitro evidences on the protective role played by plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDC)-released type I IFN in the early phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection, here we characterized ex vivo the pDC phenotype and the balance between anti-viral and pro-inflammatory cytokines of COVID-19 patients stratified according to disease severity. Our study confirms in COVID-19 the crucial and protective role of pDC/type I IFN axis, whose deeper understanding may contribute to the development of novel pharmacological strategies and/or host-directed therapies aimed at boosting pDC response since the early phases of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Missed opportunities of flu vaccination in Italian target categories: insights from the online EPICOVID 19 survey

We aimed to assess the reported rate of flu vaccination in the season 2019/2020 in respondents to the Italian nationwide online EPICOVID 19 survey. A national convenience sample of volunteers aged 18 or older was assessed between 13th April and 2nd June 2020. Flu vaccine rates were calculated for all classes of age. The association between the independent variables and the flu vaccine was assessed by applying a multivariable binary logistic regression model. Of the 198,822 respondents 41,818 (21.0%) reported to have received a flu vaccination shot during the last influenza season. In particular, 15,009 (53.4%) subjects aged 65 years or older received a flu vaccination shot. Being 65 years aged or older (aOR 3.06, 95%CI 2.92-3.20) and having a high education level (aOR 1.34. 95%CI 1.28-1.41) were independently associated to flu vaccination. Heart and lung diseases were the morbidities associated with the higher odds of being vaccinated [aOR 1.97 (95%CI 1.86-2.09) and aOR 1.92 (95%CI 1.84-2.01), respectively]. Nursing home residents aged [≥] 65 years showed a lower odds of being vaccinated [aOR 0.39 (95%CI 0.28-0.54)]. Our data claims for an urgent public heath effort to fill the gap of missed vaccination opportunities reported in the past flu seasons.

Pleiotropic effect of Lactoferrin in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 infection: in vivo, in silico and in vitro preliminary evidences

Lactoferrin, a multifunctional cationic glycoprotein, secreted by exocrine glands and neutrophils, possesses an antiviral activity extendable to SARS-CoV-2. We performed in vitro assays proving lactoferrin antiviral activity through direct attachment to both virus and cell surface components. This activity varied according to concentration (100/500g/ml), multiplicity of infection (0.1/0.01) and cell type (Vero E6/Caco-2 cells). Interestingly, the in silico results strongly supported the hypothesis of a direct recognition between the lactoferrin and the Spike S glycoprotein, thus hindering the viral entry into the cells. Hence, we conducted a clinical trial to investigate effect and tolerability of a liposomal lactoferrin formulation as a supplementary nutraceutical agent in mild-to-moderate and asymptomatic COVID-19 patients. A total of 92 mild-to-moderate (67/92) and asymptomatic (25/92) COVID-19 patients were recruited and divided in 3 groups according to the administered regimen. Thirty-two patients, 14 hospitalised and 18 in home-based insolation received oral and intranasal liposomal bovine lactoferrin (bLf), 32 hospitalised patients were treated with standard of care treatment (hydroxychloroquine, azitromicin and lopinavir/darunavir), and 28, in home-based isolation, did not take any medication. Furthermore, 32 COVID-19 negative, not-treated, healthy subjects were added as a control group for ancillary analysis. bLf-supplemented COVID-19 patients obtained an earlier and significant (p < 0,0001.) median rRT-PCR SARS-COV-2 RNA negative conversion than standard of care-treated and non-treated COVID-19 patients (14.25 vs 27.13 vs 32.61 days, respectively). In addition, bLf-supplemented COVID-19 patients showed significant fast clinical symptoms recovery than standard of care-treated and non-treated COVID-19 patients. Moreover, in bLf-supplemented patients, a significant decrease of either serum ferritin or IL-6 levels or host iron overload, all parameters characterizing inflammatory processes, were observed. Serum D-dimers was also found significantly decreased following bLf supplement. No adverse events were reported. These in vitro and in vivo observations led us to speculate a potential and safe supplementary role of Blf in the management of mild-to-moderate and asymptomatic COVID-19 patients.

EPICOVID19: Psychometric assessment and validation of a short diagnostic scale for a rapid Covid-19 screening based on reported symptoms

BackgroundConfirmed COVID-19 cases have been registered in more than two hundred countries and regions and of July 28 over 16 million cases of COVID-19, including 650805 deaths, have been reported to WHO. The number of cases changes quickly and varies depending upon which source you use to track, so in the current epidemiological context, the early recognition is critical for the rapid identification of suspected cases (with SARS-CoV-2 infection-like symptoms and signs) to be immediately subjected to quarantine measures. Although surveys are widely used for identifying COVID-19 cases, outcomes and associated risks, no validated epidemiological tool exists for surveying SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population so far. MethodsOur study is the phase II of the EPICOVID19 Italian national survey, launched in April 2020 including a national convenience sample of 201121 adults, who voluntarily filled the EPICOVID19 questionnaire. The phase II questionnaire was mailed to all subjects who underwent tests for COVID-19 by nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) and who accepted to be involved in the second phase of the study, focused on the results reported for NPS and/or serological IgG/IgM tests. We evaluated the capability of the self-reported symptoms collected through the EPICOVID19 questionnaire to discriminate the COVID-19 among symptomatic subjects, in order to identify possible cases to undergo instrumental measurements and clinical examinations. We defined a method for the identification of a total score and validated it with reference to the serological and molecular clinical diagnosis, using four standard steps: identification of critical factors, confirmation of presence of latent variable, development of optimal scoring algorithm and validation of the scoring algorithm. Findings2703 subjects [66% response rate] completed the Phase II questionnaire. Of 2703 individuals, 694 (25.7%) were NPS(+) and of these 84 (12.1% of the 694 NPS(+)) were asymptomatic. In the individuals who performed serological testing, of the 472 who did IgG(+) and 421 who did IgM(+), 22.9% and 11.6% tested positive, respectively. Among IgG(+) 1 of 108 subjects was asymptomatic (0.9%) while 5/49 subjects among IgM(+) were asymptomatic (10.2%). Compared with NPS(-), among NPS(+) subjects there was a higher rate for Fever (421 [60.7%] vs 391[19.5%]; p<0.0001), Loss of Taste and/or Smell (365 [52.6%] vs 239 [11.9%]; p<0.0001) and Cough (352 [50.7%] vs 580 [28.9%]; p<0.0001). Also for other symptoms the frequencies were significantly higher in NPS(+) subjects than in NPS(-) ones (p<0.001). Among groups with serological tests, the symptoms with higher percentages in the subjects IgG(+) were Fever (65 [60.2%] vs 43[11.8%]; p<0.0001) and Pain in muscles, bones, joints (73 [67.6%] vs 71 [19.5%]; p<0.0001). For the COVID-19 self-reported symptoms items, exploratory (proportion variance explained [89.9%]) and confirmatory factor analysis results (SMSR 0.072; RMSEA 0.052) highlights the presence of one latent variable (factor) underlying the symptoms. We define the one-factor solution as EPICOVID19 diagnostic scale and optimal score for each items was identified: Respiratory problems (1.03), Chest pain (1.07), Loss of Taste and/or Smell (0.97) and Tachycardia (palpitations) (1.05) were the most important symptoms. The cut-off score was 2.56 (Sensitivity 76.56%; Specificity 68.24%) in NPS(+) and 2.59 (Se 80.37; Sp 80.17) in IgG(+) subjects. InterpretationWe developed a short diagnostic scale to detect subjects with symptoms potentially associated with COVID-19 among a wide population. Early recognition screening and rapid diagnosis are essential to prevent transmission and provide supportive care in a timely manner and our score supports the potential for identifying individuals who need to seek immediate clinical evaluation. Although these results are referred to the Italian pandemic period, this short diagnostic scale could be optimised and tested as a screening tool in other similar pandemic contexts.

No evidence for allelic association between Covid-19 and ACE2 genetic variants by direct exome sequencing in 99 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients

BackgroundCoronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that are common in people and many animal species. Animal coronaviruses rarely infect humans with the exceptions of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV), the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), and now SARS-CoV-2, which is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Many studies suggested that genetic variants in ACE2 gene may influence the host susceptibility/resistance to SARS-CoV-2 virus according to the functional role of ACE2 in human pathophysiology. However, all these studies have been conducted in silico based on epidemiological and population data. We therefore investigated the occurrence of ACE2 variants in a cohort of 99 Italian unrelated individuals clinically diagnosed with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) to experimental demonstrate allelic association with disease severity. MethodsBy whole-exome sequencing we analysed 99 DNA samples of severely and extremely severely COVID-19 patients hospitalized at the University Hospital of Rome "Tor Vergata" and Bambino Gesu Hospital in Rome. ResultsWe identified three different germline variants, one intronic (c.439+4G>A) and two missense (c.2158A>G, p.Asn720Asp; c.1888G>C, p.Asp630His), in 26 patients with a similar frequency between male and female and a not statistically different frequency, except for c.1888G>C, (p.Asp630His) with the ethnically matched populations (EUR). ConclusionsOur results suggest that there is not any ACE2 exonic allelic association with disease severity. It is possible that rare susceptibility alleles are located in the non-coding region of the gene able to control ACE2 gene activity. It is therefore of interest, to explore the existence of ACE2 susceptibility alleles to SARS-Co-V2 in these regulatory regions. In addition, we found no significant evidence that ACE2 alleles is associated with disease severity/sex bias in the Italian population.

Ombitasvir/Paritaprevir/Ritonavir and Dasabuvir Combination Treatment in Patients with HIV/HCV Co-Infection: Results of an Italian Compassionate Use Program.

Patients co-infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at high risk of liver disease progression. We report a favorable safety profile and SVR12 rates of 96.7% among HIV/HCV co-infected patients participating in an Italian compassionate-use program of ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir + dasabuvir (OBV/PTV/r + DSV) ± ribavirin (RBV).

Complication of nasal piercing by Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis: a case report and a review of literature.

Body piercing, a growing trend especially in young people, is often complicated by severe infections. We present a case of acute bacterial endocarditis by Staphylococcus aureus complicated by multiple cerebral, kidney, spleen embolisms in a young girl, with no known previous cardiac abnormalities, following the piercing of nasal septum. This case highlights the importance of education of patients with and without structural heart disease to the potential dangerous and even life threatening infectious complications of piercing, and stimulate further discussion on the possibility of antibiotic prophylaxis of such procedures.