Circadian activity of small brown bear populations living in human-dominated landscapes.

Whereas numerous studies on large carnivores have focused on analyzing spatial patterns and habitat use, the temporal dimension of their activity has been relatively little investigated, making this a topic of growing interest, especially in human-dominated landscapes. Relict and isolated Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) have been living in a human-modified landscape since millennia, but no information is available on their activity patterns. By means of GPS telemetry (26,880 GPS locations collected from 18 adult Apennine brown bears) we investigated their circadian rhythms, using hourly movement rates as an index of bear activity. Based on a Bayesian modeling approach, circadian activity of Apennine brown bears was described by a bimodal curve, with peaks of activity around sunrise and sunset. We revealed seasonal effects, with bears exhibiting higher movement rates throughout the mating season, but no relevant influence of sex. In addition, bears increased their movement rate at distances < 100-500 m to roads and settlements exclusively during spring and late summer, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and risk avoidance. The absence of a marked nocturnality in Apennine brown bears suggests a relatively low degree of habitat encroachment and disturbance by humans. Yet, the occurrence of crepuscular activity patterns and the responses in proximity of anthropogenic landscape features likely indicate a coadaptation by bears to human presence through a shift in their temporal niche. Further studies should aim to unveil fitness implications of such modifications in activity patterns.

Cost of Coexisting with a Relict Large Carnivore Population: Impact of Apennine Brown Bears, 2005-2015.

Human-carnivore conflicts are a major conservation issue. As bears are expanding their range in Europe's human-modified landscapes, it is increasingly important to understand, prevent, and address human-bear conflicts and evaluate mitigation strategies in areas of historical coexistence. Based on verified claims, we assessed costs, patterns, and drivers of bear damages in the relict Apennine brown bear population in the Abruzzo Lazio and Molise National Park (PNALM), central Italy. During 2005-2015, 203 ± 71 (SD) damage events were verified annually, equivalent to 75,987 ± 30,038 €/year paid for compensation. Most damages occurred in summer and fall, with livestock depredation, especially sheep and cattle calves, prevailing over other types of damages, with apiaries ranking second in costs of compensation. Transhumant livestock owners were less impacted than residential ones, and farms that adopted prevention measures loaned from the PNALM were less susceptible to bear damages. Livestock farms chronically damaged by bears represented 8 ± 3% of those annually impacted, corresponding to 24 ± 6% of compensation costs. Further improvements in the conflict mitigation policy adopted by the PNALM include integrated prevention, conditional compensation, and participatory processes. We discuss the implications of our study for Human-bear coexistence in broader contexts.

Using network analysis to identify seasonal patterns and key nodes for risk-based surveillance of pig diseases in Italy.

The description of the pattern of livestock movements between herds provides essential information for both improving risk-based surveillance and to understand the likely spread of infectious diseases. This study provides a description of the temporal pattern of pig movements recorded in Italy on a 4-year period (2013-2016). Data, provided by the National Livestock registry, were described by social network analysis and the application of a walk-trap algorithm for community detection. Our results show a highly populated community located in Northern Italy, which is the focal point of the Italian industrial pig production and as a general pattern an overall decline of medium and backyard farms and an increase in the number of large farms, in agreement with the trend observed by other EU pig-producing countries. A seasonal pattern of all the parameters evaluated, including the number of active nodes in both the intensive and smaller production systems, emerged: that is characterized by a higher number of movements in spring and autumn, linked with the breeding and production cycle as pigs moved from the growing to the finishing phase and with periods of increased slaughtering at Christmas and Easter. The same pattern was found when restricting the analysis to imported pig batches. Outbreaks occurring during these periods would have a greater impact on the spread of infectious diseases; therefore, targeted surveillance may be appropriate. Finally, potential super-spreader nodes have been identified and represent 0.47% of the total number of pig holdings (n = 477). Those nodes are present during the whole study period with a similar ranking in their potential of being super-spreaders. Most of them were in Northern Italy, but super-spreaders with high mean out-degree centrality were also located in other Regions. Seasonality, communities and super-spreaders should be considered when planning surveillance activity and when applying disease control strategies.

Correlates of parasites and pseudoparasites in wolves (Canis lupus) across continents: A comparison among Yellowstone (USA), Abruzzo (IT) and Mercantour (FR) national parks.

Little is known about the impact of infectious diseases on large carnivores. We investigated factors structuring the helminth and protozoan infections of wolves (Canis lupus) by using coprological analyses. Faecal samples (n = 342) were analysed from 11 wolf packs belonging to three different geographical and ecological settings in Italy (Abruzzo, Lazio e Molise National Park, PNALM: 4 packs, 88 samples), in France (Mercantour National Park, PNM: 4 packs, 68 samples) and in the U.S.A. (Yellowstone National Park, YNP: 3 packs, 186 samples). Parasites were found in 29.4%-88.6% of the samples and parasite taxa ranged from four to ten in each study area. Taeniidae (Taenia/Echinococcus), Sarcocystis spp. and Toxascaris leonina were most common in faecal samples from YNP, whereas Capillaria spp., Taeniidae and Uncinaria stenocephala were predominant in PNALM. We used generalised linear mixed models to assess the relationship between parasite infection or the number of parasite taxa and selected ecological drivers across study areas. Significant effects illustrated the importance of the ecological factors such as occurrence of free-ranging dogs, diet composition and wolf density, as well as the ancestry of the wolf populations, in shaping parasite-wolf communities. Additional investigations are needed to elucidate the impact of parasitic infections on wolf populations, as well as the role of anthropogenic factors in facilitating parasitic diffusion to apex predators.

Predictive probability of success using surrogate endpoints.

The predictive probability of success of a future clinical trial is a key quantitative tool for decision-making in drug development. It is derived from prior knowledge and available evidence, and the latter typically comes from the accumulated data on the clinical endpoint of interest in previous clinical trials. However, a surrogate endpoint could be used as primary endpoint in early development and, usually, no or limited data are collected on the clinical endpoint of interest. We propose a general, reliable, and broadly applicable methodology to predict the success of a future trial from surrogate endpoints, in a way that makes the best use of all the available evidence. The predictions are based on an informative prior, called surrogate prior, derived from the results of past trials on one or several surrogate endpoints. If available, in a Bayesian framework, this prior could be combined with data from past trials on the clinical endpoint of interest. Two methods are proposed to address a potential discordance between the surrogate prior and the data on the clinical endpoint. We investigate the patterns of behavior of the predictions in a comprehensive simulation study, and we present an application to the development of a drug in Multiple Sclerosis. The proposed methodology is expected to support decision-making in many different situations, since the use of predictive markers is important to accelerate drug developments and to select promising drug candidates, better and earlier.

The seascape of demersal fish nursery areas in the North Mediterranean Sea, a first step towards the implementation of spatial planning for trawl fisheries.

The identification of nursery grounds and other essential fish habitats of exploited stocks is a key requirement for the development of spatial conservation planning aimed at reducing the adverse impact of fishing on the exploited populations and ecosystems. The reduction in juvenile mortality is particularly relevant in the Mediterranean and is considered as one of the main prerequisites for the future sustainability of trawl fisheries. The distribution of nursery areas of 11 important commercial species of demersal fish and shellfish was analysed in the European Union Mediterranean waters using time series of bottom trawl survey data with the aim of identifying the most persistent recruitment areas. A high interspecific spatial overlap between nursery areas was mainly found along the shelf break of many different sectors of the Northern Mediterranean indicating a high potential for the implementation of conservation measures. Overlap of the nursery grounds with existing spatial fisheries management measures and trawl fisheries restricted areas was also investigated. Spatial analyses revealed considerable variation depending on species and associated habitat/depth preferences with increased protection seen in coastal nurseries and minimal protection seen for deeper nurseries (e.g. Parapenaeus longirostris 6%). This is partly attributed to existing environmental policy instruments (e.g. Habitats Directive and Mediterranean Regulation EC 1967/2006) aiming at minimising impacts on coastal priority habitats such as seagrass, coralligenous and maerl beds. The new knowledge on the distribution and persistence of demersal nurseries provided in this study can support the application of spatial conservation measures, such as the designation of no-take Marine Protected Areas in EU Mediterranean waters and their inclusion in a conservation network. The establishment of no-take zones will be consistent with the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy applying the ecosystem approach to fisheries management and with the requirements of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to maintain or achieve seafloor integrity and good environmental status.