Kimberlite eruptions driven by slab flux and subduction angle.

Kimberlites are sourced from thermochemical upwellings which can transport diamonds to the surface of the crust. The majority of kimberlites preserved at the Earth's surface erupted between 250 and 50 million years ago, and have been attributed to changes in plate velocity or mantle plumes. However, these mechanisms fail to explain the presence of strong subduction signatures observed in some Cretaceous kimberlites. This raises the question whether there is a subduction process that unifies our understanding of the timing of kimberlite eruptions. We develop a novel formulation for calculating subduction angle based on trench migration, convergence rate, slab thickness and density to connect the influx of slab material into the mantle with the timing of kimberlite eruptions. We find that subduction angles combined with peaks in slab flux predict pulses of kimberlite eruptions. High rates of subducting slab material trigger mantle return flow that stimulates fertile reservoirs in the mantle. These convective instabilities transport slab-influenced melt to the surface at a distance inbound from the trench corresponding to the subduction angle. Our deep-time slab dip formulation has numerous potential applications including modelling the deep carbon and water cycles, and an improved understanding of subduction-related mineral deposits.

Evolution of Earth's tectonic carbon conveyor belt.

Concealed deep beneath the oceans is a carbon conveyor belt, propelled by plate tectonics. Our understanding of its modern functioning is underpinned by direct observations, but its variability through time has been poorly quantified. Here we reconstruct oceanic plate carbon reservoirs and track the fate of subducted carbon using thermodynamic modelling. In the Mesozoic era, 250 to 66 million years ago, plate tectonic processes had a pivotal role in driving climate change. Triassic-Jurassic period cooling correlates with a reduction in solid Earth outgassing, whereas Cretaceous period greenhouse conditions can be linked to a doubling in outgassing, driven by high-speed plate tectonics. The associated 'carbon subduction superflux' into the subcontinental mantle may have sparked North American diamond formation. In the Cenozoic era, continental collisions slowed seafloor spreading, reducing tectonically driven outgassing, while deep-sea carbonate sediments emerged as the Earth's largest carbon sink. Subduction and devolatilization of this reservoir beneath volcanic arcs led to a Cenozoic increase in carbon outgassing, surpassing mid-ocean ridges as the dominant source of carbon emissions 20 million years ago. An increase in solid Earth carbon emissions during Cenozoic cooling requires an increase in continental silicate weathering flux to draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide, challenging previous views and providing boundary conditions for future carbon cycle models.

Constraining the response of continental-scale groundwater flow to climate change.

Numerical models of groundwater flow play a critical role for water management scenarios under climate extremes. Large-scale models play a key role in determining long range flow pathways from continental interiors to the oceans, yet struggle to simulate the local flow patterns offered by small-scale models. We have developed a highly scalable numerical framework to model continental groundwater flow which capture the intricate flow pathways between deep aquifers and the near-surface. The coupled thermal-hydraulic basin structure is inferred from hydraulic head measurements, recharge estimates from geochemical proxies, and borehole temperature data using a Bayesian framework. We use it to model the deep groundwater flow beneath the Sydney-Gunnedah-Bowen Basin, part of Australia's largest aquifer system. Coastal aquifers have flow rates of up to 0.3 m/day, and a corresponding groundwater residence time of just 2,000 years. In contrast, our model predicts slow flow rates of 0.005 m/day for inland aquifers, resulting in a groundwater residence time of [Formula: see text] 400,000 years. Perturbing the model to account for a drop in borehole water levels since 2000, we find that lengthened inland flow pathways depart significantly from pre-2000 streamlines as groundwater is drawn further from recharge zones in a drying climate. Our results illustrate that progressively increasing water extraction from inland aquifers may permanently alter long-range flow pathways. Our open-source modelling approach can be extended to any basin and may help inform policies on the sustainable management of groundwater.

Intraplate volcanism triggered by bursts in slab flux.

Long-lived, widespread intraplate volcanism without age progression is one of the most controversial features of plate tectonics. Previously proposed edge-driven convection, asthenospheric shear, and lithospheric detachment fail to explain the ~5000-km-wide intraplate volcanic province from eastern Australia to Zealandia. We model the subducted slab volume over 100 million years and find that slab flux drives volcanic eruption frequency, indicating stimulation of an enriched mantle transition zone reservoir. Volcanic isotope geochemistry allows us to distinguish a high-µ (HIMU) reservoir [>1 billion years (Ga) old] in the slab-poor south, from a northern EM1/EM2 reservoir, reflecting a more recent voluminous influx of oceanic lithosphere into the mantle transition zone. We provide a unified theory linking plate boundary and slab volume reconstructions to upper mantle reservoirs and intraplate volcano geochemistry.

An Early Cretaceous subduction-modified mantle underneath the ultraslow spreading Gakkel Ridge, Arctic Ocean.

Earth's upper mantle, as sampled by mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs) at oceanic spreading centers, has developed chemical and isotopic heterogeneity over billions of years through focused melt extraction and re-enrichment by recycled crustal components. Chemical and isotopic heterogeneity of MORB is dwarfed by the large compositional spectrum of lavas at convergent margins, identifying subduction zones as the major site for crustal recycling into and modification of the mantle. The fate of subduction-modified mantle and if this heterogeneity transmits into MORB chemistry remains elusive. Here, we investigate the origin of upper mantle chemical heterogeneity underneath the Western Gakkel Ridge region in the Arctic Ocean through MORB geochemistry and tectonic plate reconstruction. We find that seafloor lavas from the Western Gakkel Ridge region mirror geochemical signatures of an Early Cretaceous, paleo-subduction zone, and conclude that the upper mantle can preserve a long-lived, stationary geochemical memory of past geodynamic processes.