Ambulatory blood pressure as risk factor for long-term kidney function decline in the general population: a distributional regression approach.

The results of randomized controlled trials are unclear about the long-term effect of blood pressure (BP) on kidney function assessed as the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in persons without chronic kidney disease or diabetes. The limited duration of follow-up and use of imprecise methods for assessing BP and GFR are important reasons why this issue has not been settled. Since a long-term randomized trial is unlikely, we investigated the association between 24-h ambulatory BP (ABP) and measured GFR in a cohort study with a median follow-up of 11 years. The Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey (RENIS) cohort is a representative sample of persons aged 50 to 62 years without baseline cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or kidney disease from the general population of Tromsø in northern Norway. ABP was measured at baseline, and iohexol clearance at baseline and twice during follow-up. The study population comprised 1589 persons with 4127 GFR measurements. Baseline ABP or office BP components were not associated with the GFR change rate in multivariable adjusted conventional regression models. In generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), higher daytime systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial ABP were associated with a slight shift of the central part of the GFR distribution toward lower GFR and with higher probability of GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 during follow-up (p < 0.05). The use of a distributional regression method and precise methods for measuring exposure and outcome were necessary to detect an unfavorable association between BP and GFR in this study of the general population.

Office and Ambulatory Heart Rate as Predictors of Age-Related Kidney Function Decline.

The decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) associated with aging is one of the most important predisposing causes of kidney failure in old age. Identifying persons at risk for accelerated GFR decline is an essential first step in the development of preventive measures to preserve kidney function in the elderly. Heart rate (HR) has not yet been studied as a risk factor for GFR decline in the general population. In the RENIS-T6 (Renal Iohexol-Clearance Survey in Tromsø 6), we measured baseline ambulatory HR and GFR as iohexol clearance in a representative, middle-aged cohort of 1627 persons without self-reported diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, or kidney disease. In the RENIS-FU (RENIS Follow-Up Study), we repeated the GFR measurements and calculated the rate of GFR decline in 81% of the participants after a median follow-up of 5.6 years. The unadjusted mean rate of GFR decline was 0.96 mL/min per year. In multivariable-adjusted linear mixed models, 10 bpm higher ambulatory 24-hour and daytime HRs and office HR were associated with steeper GFR decline rates of 0.20 to 0.21 mL/min per year ( P≤0.01). The odds ratio for predicting a rate of GFR decline twice that of the population mean in a fully adjusted model was 1.24 ( P=0.01) for ambulatory 24-hour HR. Office HR was also an independent predictor of a steeper rate of GFR decline. HR may be a useful biomarker to identify persons at risk of accelerated GFR decline.

Blood pressure and age-related GFR decline in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is one of the most important causes of end-stage renal disease, but it is unclear whether elevated blood pressure (BP) also accelerates the gradual decline in the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) seen in the general population with increasing age. The reason may be that most studies have considered only baseline BP and not the effects of changes in BP, antihypertensive treatment and other determinants of GFR during follow-up. Additionally, the use of GFR estimated from creatinine or cystatin C instead of measurements of GFR may have biased the results because of influence from non-GFR related confounders. We studied the relationship between BP and GFR decline using time-varying variables in a cohort representative of the general population using measurements of GFR as iohexol clearance. METHODS: We included 1594 subjects aged 50 to 62 years without baseline diabetes, kidney-, or cardiovascular disease in the Renal Iohexol-clearance Survey in Tromsø 6 (RENIS-T6). GFR, BP, antihypertensive medication and all adjustment variables were ascertained at baseline, and at follow-up after a median observation time of 5.6 years in 1299 persons (81%). The relationship between GFR decline and BP was analyzed in linear mixed models. RESULTS: The mean (standard deviation) GFR decline rate was 0.95 (2.23) mL/min/year. The percentage of persons with hypertension (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg or antihypertensive medication) increased from 42 to 52% between baseline and follow-up. In multivariable adjusted linear mixed models using time-varying independent variables measured at baseline and follow-up, higher systolic and diastolic BP were associated with slower GFR decline rates by 0.10 and 0.20 mL/min/year/10 mmHg, respectively (p < 0.05). The association was stronger in persons on antihypertensive medication than in others (p < 0.05 for the interaction between BP and antihypertensive medication). CONCLUSIONS: In the medium-term, elevated BP is not associated with accelerated GFR decline in the general middle-aged population. In persons using antihypertensive medication, elevated BP is associated with a paradoxical slower GFR decline. Studies with even longer observation periods are needed to evaluate the ultimate effect of BP on kidney function.

Elevated blood pressure is not associated with accelerated glomerular filtration rate decline in the general non-diabetic middle-aged population.

Although hypertension is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease, this complication develops in only a minority of hypertensive patients. Whether non-malignant hypertension itself is sufficient to cause reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is unclear. Therefore, we investigated whether elevated blood pressure (BP) was associated with accelerated GFR decline in the general population. The study was based on the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey in Tromsø 6 (RENIS-T6), which included a representative sample of 1594 individuals aged 50 to 62 years from the general population without baseline diabetes or kidney or cardiovascular disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and follow-up after a median observation time of 5.6 years. BP was measured according to a standardized procedure. The mean (SD) GFR decline rate was 0.95 (2.23) ml/min/yr. In multivariable adjusted linear mixed regressions with either baseline systolic or diastolic BP as the independent variable, there were no statistically significant associations with GFR decline. Thus, elevated BP is not associated with accelerated mean GFR decline in the general middle-aged population. Hence, additional genetic and environmental factors are probably necessary for elevated BP to develop manifest chronic kidney disease in some individuals.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease is associated with a high glomerular filtration rate in the nondiabetic general population.

A reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in chronic kidney disease is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, evidence indicates that a high GFR may also be a cardiovascular risk factor. This issue remains unresolved due to a lack of longitudinal studies of manifest cardiovascular disease with precise GFR measurements. Here, we performed a cross-sectional study of the relationship between high GFR measured as iohexol clearance and subclinical cardiovascular disease in the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey in Tromsø 6 (RENIS-T6), a representative sample of the middle-aged general population. A total of 1521 persons without cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, or micro- or macroalbuminuria were examined with carotid ultrasonography and electrocardiography. The GFR in the highest quartile was associated with an increased odds ratio of having total carotid plaque area greater than the median of non-zero values (odds ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.02-2.39) or electrocardiographic signs of left ventricular hypertrophy (odds ratio 1.62, 95% confidence interval 1.10-2.38) compared to the lowest quartile. The analyses were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, urinary albumin excretion, and fasting serum glucose. Thus, high GFR is associated with carotid atherosclerosis and left ventricular hypertrophy and should be investigated as a possible risk factor for manifest cardiovascular disease in longitudinal studies.

Ambulatory blood pressure is associated with measured glomerular filtration rate in the general middle-aged population.

OBJECTIVES: Hypertension is both a cause and a consequence of kidney disease. Whether there is an association between the earliest stages of elevated blood pressure and variations in kidney function within the normal range in the general population has not been investigated using accurate methodology. METHODS: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by iohexol clearance and 24-h blood pressure were measured in a cross-sectional sample (n = 1627) from the general population aged from 50 to 62 years. None of the participants had known cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, or diabetes. RESULTS: In multiple linear regression analyses with multivariate adjustment, GFR was associated with both ambulatory SBP and DBP and their interaction in separate models for daytime and night-time (P < 0.05). For blood pressure in the normotensive range, GFR increased with higher daytime SBP and with night-time SBP and DBP. In the daytime, higher DBP was associated with a slight decrease in GFR. CONCLUSION: GFR was associated with blood pressure in both the normotensive and hypertensive range. Although no conclusion about causality can be drawn from these cross-sectional relationships, they are consistent with the hypotheses of a causal relationship between renal function and blood pressure at a very early stage of hypertension or renal impairment.

Cystatin C as risk factor for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in the general population. The Tromsø Study.

BACKGROUND: Glomerular filtration rate<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Cystatin C is believed to be a better tool than creatinine for detection of mild renal dysfunction (>60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and possibly a more sensitive marker for cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality. We examined the association of cystatin C with cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality in a prospective population-based study. METHODS: Cystatin C was measured in 2852 men and 3153 women in the Tromsø Study 1994/95. Gender-specific associations during 12 years of follow-up for all-cause mortality and 9.5 years for myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke were assessed (Cox proportional hazard ratios, HRs). RESULTS: During follow-up, 591 MIs, 293 ischaemic strokes and 1262 deaths occurred. In women, HR for all-cause mortality was increased in the upper cystatin C quartile (≥0.93 mg/L) compared with the lowest quartile (≤0.73 mg/L); 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.84. A significant interaction with gender was observed. One SD (0.17 mg/L) increase in cystatin C was associated with 9% higher risk of death in women, also when persons with a cancer history were excluded. Crude HRs for MI and ischaemic stroke were increased in both genders, but the associations did not persist after multivariable adjustments. No independent associations with end points were observed in non-gender-specific analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Cystatin C was not independently associated with fatal and non-fatal MI or ischaemic stroke in the general population. However, cystatin C was a risk factor for all-cause mortality in women.

GFR normalized to total body water allows comparisons across genders and body sizes.

The normalization of GFR to a standardized body-surface area of 1.73 m(2) impedes comparison of GFR across individuals of different genders, heights, or weights. Ideally, GFR should be normalized to a parameter that best explains variation in GFR. Here, we measured true GFR by iohexol clearance in a representative sample of 1627 individuals from the general population who did not have diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or kidney disease. We also estimated total body water (TBW), extracellular fluid volume, lean body mass, liver volume, metabolic rate, and body-surface area. We compared two methods of normalizing GFR to these physiologic variables: (1) the conventional method of scaling GFR to each physiologic variable by simple division and (2) a method based on regression of the GFR on each variable. TBW explained a higher proportion of the variation in GFR than the other physiologic variables. GFR adjusted for TBW by the regression method exhibited less dependence on gender, height, and weight compared with the other physiologic variables. Thus, adjusting GFR for TBW by the regression method allows direct comparisons between individuals of different genders, weights, and heights. We propose that regression-based normalization of GFR to a standardized TBW of 40 L should replace the current practice of normalizing GFR to 1.73 m(2) of body-surface area.

Cystatin C is not a better estimator of GFR than plasma creatinine in the general population.

Accurate measurement of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is complicated and costly; therefore, GFR is commonly estimated by assessing creatinine or cystatin C concentrations. Because estimates based on cystatin C predict cardiovascular disease better than creatinine, these estimates have been hypothesized to be superior to those based on creatinine, when the GFR is near the normal range. To test this, we measured GFR by iohexol clearance in a representative sample of middle-aged (50-62 years) individuals in the general population, excluding those with coronary heart or kidney disease, stroke or diabetes mellitus. Bias, precision (median and interquartile range of estimated minus measured GFR (mGFR)), and accuracy (percentage of estimates within 30% of mGFR) of published cystatin C and creatinine-based GFR equations were compared in a total of 1621 patients. The cystatin C-based equation with the highest accuracy (94%) had a bias of 3.5 and precision of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m², whereas the most accurate (95%) creatinine-based equation had a bias of 2.9 and precision of 15 ml/min per 1.73 m² The best equation, based on both cystatin C and creatinine, had a bias of 7.6 ml/min per 1.73 m², precision of 15 ml/min per 1.73 m², and accuracy of 92%. Thus, estimates of GFR based on cystatin C were not superior to those based on creatinine in the general population. Hence, the better prediction of cardiovascular disease by cystatin C than creatinine measurements, found by others, may be due to factors other than GFR.