Women's changing work arrangements, career paths, and marital fertility in Japan.

By drawing upon birth history data gleaned from the 2007 and 2010 rounds of the National Survey on Work and Family (NSWF), we estimate the relationship between the married female worker's use of the childcare leave scheme and her hourly wage, and then evaluate the impact of her predicted hourly wage upon her probability of proceeding from parity 0 to parity 1, as well as from parity 1 to parity 2. We find that married Japanese women working full-time, who took advantage of childcare leave, earned considerably higher hourly wages than their part-time counterparts. However, the higher predicted hourly wage lowered the probability of having first two children. This implies that the opportunity cost of having children is greater than the income effect for full time workers. In comparison with full-time workers, married women working part-time show much lower probabilities of having first two children.

Multidimensional life table estimation of the total fertility rate and its components.

Using discrete-time survival models of parity progression and illustrative data from the Philippines, this article develops a multivariate multidimensional life table of nuptiality and fertility, the dimensions of which are age, parity, and duration in parity. The measures calculated from this life table include total fertility rate (TFR), [corrected] total marital fertility rate (TMFR), parity progression ratios (PPR), age-specific fertility rates, mean and median ages at first marriage, mean and median closed birth intervals, and mean and median ages at childbearing by child's birth order and for all birth orders combined. These measures are referred to collectively as "TFR and its components." Because the multidimensional life table is multivariate, all measures derived from it are also multivariate in the sense that they can be tabulated by categories or selected values of one socioeconomic variable while controlling for other socioeconomic variables. The methodology is applied to birth history data, in the form of actual birth histories from a fertility survey or reconstructed birth histories derived from a census or household survey. The methodology yields period estimates as well as cohort estimates of the aforementioned measures.

Multivariate analysis of parity progression-based measures of the total fertility rate and its components.

This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model-the complementary log-log model-to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). The components of the TFR are PPRs, the total marital fertility rate (TMFR), and the TFR itself as measures of the quantum of fertility, and mean and median ages at first marriage and mean and median closed birth intervals by birth order as measures of the tempo or timing of fertility. The focus is on effects of predictor variables on these measures rather than on coefficients, which are often difficult to interpret in the complex models that are considered. The methodology is applicable to both period and cohort data. It is illustrated by application to data from the 1993, 1998, and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in the Philippines.