Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R.

African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.

Retrospective investigation of the 2019 African swine fever epidemic within smallholder pig farms in Oudomxay province, Lao PDR.

The 2019 African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR or Laos) represented a major epidemiologic event where a transitioning lower-middle income nation (LMIC) experienced a viral epidemic in a naïve pig population. The diversity of pig management styles creates challenges for local and regional policymakers when formulating recommendations to control an ASF outbreak. The aim of this study were to investigate the management of pigs in villages of Oudomxay province that were affected by ASF in 2019, as a case study in a smallholder pig-rasing system in northern Laos. The frequencies of well known risk factors were measured in the affected villages and the timelines and household level stock losses due to the outbreak were investigated. These findings were compared to data available from a similar outbreak in the southern province of Savannakhet. Disease control implications of these findings are discussed. Mean losses were 3.0-23.3 pigs per household, with a mean lost herd value of USD 349, 95% CI (294-415). These pig losses reflect those estimated in Savannakhet (6.7 pigs per household). However, the financial loss estimated per household was higher, USD 349 versus USD 215, possibly due to higher pig values and a higher input/output management approach in Oudomxay. The investigation revealed the presence of numerous ASF risk factors, such as swill-feeding and free-ranging. In addition, poor biosecurity practices - such as inappropriate garbage disposal and slaughtering - that could contaminate the environment were present. ASF cases occurred across all villages between June and December 2019, with outbreak periods ranging from 22-103 days. These values are consistent with the outbreak in Savannakhet; however, notable differences in management styles were observed. These findings demonstrate the need for more disease control resources from the village to the Governmental level. Villages need support in enacting context appropriate biosecurity measures, whilst the ongoing surveillance and investigation of ASF require investment in logistical and veterinary resources at the Governmental level.

Utilising abattoir sero-surveillance for high-impact and zoonotic pig diseases in Lao PDR.

National disease surveillance systems are essential to a healthy pig industry but can be costly and logistically complex. In 2019, Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) piloted an abattoir disease surveillance system to assess for the presence of high impact pig diseases (HIPDs) using serological methods. The Lao Department of Livestock and Fisheries (DLF) identified Classical Swine Fever (CSF), Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Syndrome (PRRS) and Brucella suis as HIPDs of interest for sero-surveillance purposes. Porcine serum samples (n = 597) were collected from six Lao abattoirs in March to December of 2019. Serological enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) methods were chosen for their high-throughput and relatively low-costs. The true seroprevalence for CSF and PRRS seropositivity were 68.7%, 95% CI (64.8-72.3) and 39.5%, 95% CI (35.7-43.5), respectively. The results demonstrated no evidence of Brucella spp. seroconversion. Lao breed pigs were less likely to be CSF seropositive (P < 0.05), whilst pigs slaughtered at <1 year of age were less likely to be PRRS seropositive (P < 0.01). The testing methods could not differentiate between seropositivity gained from vaccine or natural infection, and investigators were unable to obtain the vaccine status of the slaughtered pigs from the abattoirs. These results demonstrate that adequate sample sizes are possible from abattoir sero-surveillance and lifetime health traceability is necessary to understand HIPDs in Lao PDR.

Abattoir-Based Serological Surveillance and Spatial Risk Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Brucellosis, and Q Fever in Lao PDR Large Ruminants.

A national animal disease surveillance network initiated by the Lao PDR government is adopted and reinforced by a joint research project between the National Animal Health Laboratory (NAHL), the Department of Livestock and Fisheries (DLF), and the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU). The network is strengthened by staff training and practical exercises and is utilised to provide zoonotic or high-impact disease information on a national scale. Between January and December 2020, large ruminant samples are collected monthly from 18 abattoirs, one in each province, by provincial and district agriculture and forestry officers. The surveillance network collected a total of 4247 serum samples (1316 buffaloes and 2931 cattle) over this period. Samples are tested for antibodies against Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Non-Structural Protein (FMD NSP) using commercial ELISA kits and the Rose Bengal test. Seroprevalences of Q fever and brucellosis in large ruminants are low at 1.7% (95% CI: 1.3, 2.1) and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.5, 1.0) respectively, while for FMD NSP it is 50.5% (95% CI: 49.0, 52.0). Univariate analyses show differences in seroprevalences of Q fever between destination (abattoir) province (p-value = 0.005), province of origin (p-value = 0.005), animal type (buffalo or cattle) (p-value = 0.0008), and collection month (p-value = 3.4 × 10−6). Similar to Q fever, seroprevalences of brucellosis were significantly different for destination province (p-value < 0.00001), province of origin (p-value < 0.00001), animal type (p-value = 9.9 × 10−5) and collection month (p-value < 0.00001), plus body condition score (p-value = 0.003), and age (p-value = 0.007). Additionally, risk factors of the FMD NSP dataset include the destination province (p-value < 0.00001), province of origin (p-value < 0.00001), sex (p-value = 7.97 × 10−8), age (p-value = 0.009), collection date (p-value < 0.00001), and collection month (p-value < 0.00001). Spatial analyses revealed that there is no spatial correlation of FMD NSP seropositive animals. High-risk areas for Q fever and brucellosis are identified by spatial analyses. Further investigation of the higher risk areas would provide a better epidemiological understanding of both diseases in Lao PDR. In conclusion, the abattoir serological survey provides useful information about disease exposure and potential risk factors. The network is a good base for field and laboratory staff training in practical technical skills. However, the sustainability of such a surveillance activity is relatively low without an external source of funding, given the operational costs and insufficient government budget. The cost-effectiveness of the abattoir survey could be increased by targeting hotspot areas, reducing fixed costs, and extending the focus to cover more diseases.

The impact of African swine fever virus on smallholder village pig production: An outbreak investigation in Lao PDR.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a deadly disease of pigs which spread through southeast Asia in 2019. We investigated one of the first outbreaks of ASFV in Lao People's Democratic Republic amongst smallholder villages of Thapangtong District, Savannakhet Province. In this study, two ASFV affected villages were compared to two unaffected villages. Evidence of ASFV-like clinical signs appeared in pig herds as early as May 2019, with median epidemic days on 1 and 18 June in the two villages, respectively. Using participatory epidemiology mapping techniques, we found statistically significant spatial clustering in both outbreaks (p < 0.001). Villagers reported known risk factors for ASFV transmission - such as free-ranging management systems and wild boar access - in all four villages. The villagers reported increased pig trader activity from Vietnam before the outbreaks; however, the survey did not determine a single outbreak source. The outbreak caused substantial household financial losses with an average of nine pigs lost to the disease, and Monte Carlo analysis estimated this to be USD 215 per household. ASFV poses a significant threat to food and financial security in smallholder communities such as Thapangtong, where 40.6% of the district's population are affected by poverty. This study shows ASFV management in the region will require increased local government resources, knowledge of informal trader activity and wild boar monitoring alongside education and support to address intra-village risk factors such as free-ranging, incorrect waste disposal and swill feeding.

Seroepidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease using passive surveillance techniques in selected provinces of Lao PDR.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a high-impact, contagious transboundary animal disease that is endemic in Southeast Asia. Abattoir samples were routinely collected in six selected provinces between March and December 2019. A total of 1280 samples of abattoir animals were tested for FMD Non-Structural Protein (NSP) antibodies to indicate natural infections. Overall, 22.8% were seropositive for FMD NSP antibodies while seroprevalence of cattle (n = 469), buffalo (n = 214), and pigs (n = 597) were 44.6%, 35.0%, and 1.3%, respectively. The highest seroprevalence destination province was Xiengkhouang (35.3% of 272 samples), followed by Savannakhet (27.0% of 244 samples). Risk factors for evidence of natural infection identified by a multivariate logistic regression model included age groups (p-value = 0.02) and origin provinces (p-value = 2.8 × 10-5) of the animals. There were significant differences of FMD NSP seroprevalence between age groups and origin provinces of the animals. The odds ratio of a seropositive result in the less than 1 year old group was 2.5 (95% CI; 1.4, 4.4) when compared to the 3-4 years old group, while the odds ratios for animals that originated from Khammouane and Xiengkhouang provinces were 4.5 (95% CI; 1.1, 18.7) and 2.4 (95% CI; 1.4, 4.1), respectively, when compared to Champasak province. Serotype-specific antibody ELISA for 44 NSP antibody-positive samples revealed evidence of FMD serotypes O and A virus circulation in some provinces. Despite the passive abattoir survey providing useful information on FMD virus previous exposure and geographic locations of the animals, timely information on FMD virus circulation and distribution is also crucial to an effective control program. Alternative approaches to increase the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance network are also discussed.

The Development of an Abattoir-Based Surveillance System in Lao PDR for the Detection of Zoonoses in Large Ruminants: Q Fever and Brucellosis Seroepidemiology as a Pilot Study.

Although animal health surveillance programmes are useful for gaining information to help improve global health and food security, these programmes can be challenging to establish in developing economies with a low-resource base. This study focused on establishing a national surveillance system initiated by the Lao PDR government using a passive surveillance system of abattoir samples as a pilot model, and to gain information on contagious zoonoses, particularly Q fever and brucellosis, in the large ruminant population. A total of 683 cattle and buffalo samples were collected from six selected provinces of Lao PDR between March-December 2019. Out of 271 samples tested, six samples (2.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.0, 4.8) were positive in the Q fever antibody ELISA test. Only one sample (out of 683; 0.2%, 95% CI 0.0, 0.8) tested positive to the Brucella antibody ELISA test. Seroprevalence of these important zoonoses in Lao PDR were relatively low in cattle and buffaloes; however, extensive animal movement within the country was identified which could increase risks of spreading transboundary diseases. The study highlights the importance of ongoing animal health surveillance and the need to find cost-effective approaches for its long-term sustainability.

Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of an affordable rapid diagnostic test for African Swine Fever antigen detection in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a transboundary animal disease of pigs and wild suids that appeared in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) in mid-2019, having spread across China and Vietnam in the months prior. Despite the scale of the Asian ASF pandemic and the availability of pen-side rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) on the market, few locally produced and easily available ASF RDTs have been evaluated for diagnostic accuracy. In this study, an ASF antigen detection RDT from Shenzhen Lvshiyuan Biotechnology Co. Ltd was evaluated using clinical field samples submitted to the National Animal Health Laboratory (NAHL) from ASF suspect cases between June and December 2019 in Lao PDR. Positive (n = 57) and negative (n = 50) samples of whole blood, serum and haemolysed serum were assessed by RDT and PCR, with the latter used as the gold standard reference comparator. Overall the RDT had a diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) of 65 %, 95 % CI [51-77] and diagnostic specificity (DSp) of 76 %, 95 % CI [62-87]. The RDT demonstrated improved performance on samples with lower PCR cycle threshold (ct) values with each additional cycle reducing the odds of the RDT returning a positive by 17 % relative to the previous cycle, 95 % CI [8 %-28 %] (P < 0.01). While this test shows promise for field application, complete validation of diagnostic accuracy requires a larger sample size.