RESUMO
CONTEXT: Although the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) is a reliable and validated tool to predict the survival of terminally ill cancer patients, all clinicians cannot always precisely diagnose delirium. OBJECTIVES: The primary aim of this study was to examine the predictive value of a simplified PPI. In the simplified PPI, a single item from the Communication Capacity Scale was substituted for the delirium item of the original. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014 and involved 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services. Palliative care physicians recorded clinical variables at the first assessment and followed up patients six months later. RESULTS: A total of 2425 subjects were recruited; 2343 had analyzable data. The C-statistics of the original and simplified PPIs were 0.801 and 0.800 for three week and 0.800 and 0.781 for six-week survival predictions, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for survival predictions using the simplified PPI were 72.9% and 67.6% (for three week) and 80.3% and 61.8% (for six week), respectively. CONCLUSION: The simplified PPI showed essentially the same predictive value as the original PPI and is an alternative when clinicians have difficulties in diagnosing delirium.
