Economic Burden of Acute Gastroenteritis among Members of Integrated Healthcare Delivery System, United States, 2014-2016.

We conducted a large surveillance study among members of an integrated healthcare delivery system in Pacific Northwest of the United States to estimate medical costs attributable to medically attended acute gastroenteritis (MAAGE) on the day care was sought and during 30-day follow-up. We used multivariable regression to compare costs of MAAGE and non-MAAGE cases matched on age, gender, and index time. Differences accounted for confounders, including race, ethnicity, and history of chronic underlying conditions. Analyses included 73,140 MAAGE episodes from adults and 18,617 from children who were Kaiser Permanente Northwest members during 2014-2016. Total costs were higher for MAAGE cases relative to non-MAAGE comparators as were costs on the day care was sought and costs during follow-up. Costs of MAAGE are substantial relative to the cost of usual-care medical services, and much of the burden accrues during short-term follow-up.

Health Care Utilization and Clinical Management of All-Cause and Norovirus-Associated Acute Gastroenteritis Within a US Integrated Health Care System.

Background: Norovirus-associated acute gastroenteritis (AGE) exacts a substantial disease burden, yet the health care utilization for and clinical management of norovirus-associated AGE are not well characterized. Methods: We describe the health care encounters and therapeutics used for patients with all-cause and norovirus-associated AGE in the Kaiser Permanente Northwest health system from 1 April 2014 through 30 September 2016. Medical encounters for patients with AGE were extracted from electronic health records, and encounters within 30 days of one another were grouped into single episodes. An age-stratified random sample of patients completed surveys and provided stool samples for norovirus testing. Results: In total, 40 348 individuals had 52 509 AGE episodes; 460 (14%) of 3310 participants in the substudy tested positive for norovirus. An overall 35% of all-cause AGE episodes and 29% of norovirus-associated AGE episodes had ≥2 encounters. While 80% of norovirus-associated AGE episodes had at least 1 encounter in the outpatient setting, all levels of the health care system were affected: 10%, 22%, 10%, and 2% of norovirus-associated AGE episodes had at least 1 encounter in virtual, urgent care, emergency department, and inpatient settings, respectively. Corresponding proportions of therapeutic use between norovirus-positive and norovirus-negative episodes were 13% and 10% for intravenous hydration (P = .07), 65% and 50% for oral rehydration (P < .001), 7% and 14% for empiric antibiotic therapy (P < .001), and 33% and 18% for antiemetics (P < .001). Conclusions: Increased health care utilization and therapeutics are likely needed for norovirus-associated AGE episodes during peak norovirus winter seasons, and these data illustrate that effective norovirus vaccines will likely result in less health care utilization.

Endemic Coronavirus Infections are Associated with Strong Homotypic Immunity in a US Cohort of Children from Birth to 4 Years.

BACKGROUND: The endemic coronaviruses OC43, HKU1, NL63, and 229E cause cold-like symptoms and are related to SARS-CoV-2, but their natural histories are poorly understood. In a cohort of children followed from birth to 4 years, we documented all coronavirus infections, including SARS-CoV-2, to understand protection against subsequent infections with the same virus (homotypic immunity) or a different coronavirus (heterotypic immunity). METHODS: Mother-child pairs were enrolled in metropolitan Cincinnati during the third trimester of pregnancy in 2017-2018. Mothers reported their child's sociodemographics, risk factors, and weekly symptoms. Mid-turbinate nasal swabs were collected weekly. Blood was collected at 6 weeks, 6, 12, 18, 24 months, and annually thereafter. Infections were detected by testing nasal swabs by an RT-PCR multi-pathogen panel and by serum IgG responses. Health care visits were documented from pediatric records. Analysis was limited to 116 children with high sample adherence. Reconsent for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 infections from June 2020 through November 2021 was obtained for 74 (64%) children. RESULTS: We detected 345 endemic coronavirus infections (1.1 infections/child-year) and 21 SARS-CoV-2 infections (0.3 infections/child-year). Endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2 infections were asymptomatic or mild. Significant protective homotypic immunity occurred after a single infection with OC43 (77%) and HKU1 (84%) and after two infections with NL63 (73%). No heterotypic protection against endemic coronaviruses or SARS-CoV-2 was identified. CONCLUSIONS: Natural coronavirus infections were common and resulted in strong homotypic immunity but not heterotypic immunity against other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2 infections in this US cohort were typically asymptomatic or mild.

Correlates of Rotavirus Vaccine Shedding and Seroconversion in a U.S. Cohort of Healthy Infants.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is a leading cause of severe pediatric gastroenteritis; two highly effective vaccines are used in the US. We aimed to identify correlates of immune response to rotavirus vaccination in a US cohort. METHODS: PREVAIL is a birth cohort of 245 mother-child pairs enrolled 2017-2018 and followed for 2 years. Infant stool samples and symptom information were collected weekly. Shedding was defined as RT-PCR detection of rotavirus vaccine virus in stools collected 4-28 days after dose one. Seroconversion was defined as a threefold rise in IgA between the six-week and six-month blood draws. Correlates were analyzed using generalized estimating equations and logistic regression. RESULTS: Pre-vaccination IgG (OR=0.84, 95% CI [0.75-0.94] per 100-unit increase) was negatively associated with shedding. Shedding was also less likely among infants with a single-nucleotide polymorphism inactivating FUT2 antigen secretion ("non-secretors") with non-secretor mothers, versus all other combinations (OR 0.37 [0.16-0.83]). Of 141 infants with data, 105 (74%) seroconverted; 78 (77%) had shed vaccine virus following dose one. Pre-vaccination IgG and secretor status were significantly associated with seroconversion. Neither shedding nor seroconversion significantly differed by vaccine product. DISCUSSION: In this US cohort, pre-vaccination IgG and maternal and infant secretor status were associated with rotavirus vaccine response.

Factors Associated With Prolonged Respiratory Virus Detection From Polymerase Chain Reaction of Nasal Specimens Collected Longitudinally in Healthy Children in a US Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viral shedding is incompletely characterized by existing studies due to the lack of longitudinal nasal sampling and limited inclusion of healthy/asymptomatic children. We describe characteristics associated with prolonged virus detection by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in a community-based birth cohort. METHODS: Children were followed from birth to 2 years of age in the PREVAIL cohort. Weekly nasal swabs were collected and tested using the Luminex Respiratory Pathogen Panel. Weekly text surveys were administered to ascertain the presence of acute respiratory illnesses defined as fever and/or cough. Maternal reports and medical chart abstractions identified healthcare utilization. Prolonged virus detection was defined as a persistently positive test lasting ≥4 weeks. Factors associated with prolonged virus detection were assessed using mixed effects multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: From a sub-cohort of 101 children with ≥70% weekly swabs collected, a total of 1489 viral infections were detected. Prolonged virus detection was found in 23.4% of viral infections overall, 39% of bocavirus infections, 33% of rhinovirus/enterovirus infections, 14% of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A infections, and 7% of RSV B infections. No prolonged detection was found for influenza virus A or B, coronavirus 229E or HKU1, and parainfluenza virus 2 or 4 infections. First-lifetime infection with each virus, and co-detection of another respiratory virus were significantly associated with prolonged detection, while symptom status, child sex, and child age were not. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged virus detection was observed in 1 in 4 viral infections in this cohort of healthy children and varied by pathogen, occurring most often for bocavirus and rhinovirus/enterovirus. Evaluating the immunological basis of how viral co-detections and recurrent viral infections impact duration of virus detection by PCR is needed to better understand the dynamics of prolonged viral shedding.

Attitudes toward a future norovirus vaccine among members of an integrated healthcare delivery system in Portland, Oregon, 2016-2017.

With recent advances in U.S. clinical trials for norovirus vaccines, it is an opportune time to examine what is known about the public receptivity to this novel vaccine. From October 2016-September 2017, we surveyed Kaiser Permanente Northwest members in Portland, Oregon, to ask their level of agreement on a 5-point scale with statements about the need for and willingness to get a potential norovirus vaccine for themselves or their child and analyzed their responses according to age, occupational status, prior vaccine uptake, and history of prior norovirus diagnoses. The survey response rate was 13.5% (n = 3,894); 807 (21%) responded as legal guardians, on behalf of a child <18 y of age and 3,087 (79%) were adults aged 18+ y. The majority of respondents were in agreement about getting the norovirus vaccine, if available (60% of legal guardians, 52% of adults aged 18-64 y, and 55% of adults aged 65+ y). Prior vaccination for influenza and rotavirus (among children) was the only correlate significantly associated with more positive attitudes toward receiving norovirus vaccine. Pre-pandemic attitudes in our all-ages study population reveal generally positive attitudes toward willingness to get a norovirus vaccine, particularly among those who previously received influenza or rotavirus vaccines.

Household Transmission of Viral Acute Gastroenteritis Among Participants Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System, 2014-2016.

Background: While enteric viruses are highly transmissible, household factors associated with transmission are less well documented. We identified individual- and household-level factors associated with viral acute gastroenteritis (AGE) transmission in a large health care network in the United States. Methods: Patients presenting with AGE were enrolled from April 2014 to September 2016. Patients and symptomatic household members were interviewed, and stool specimens were collected and tested for viral pathogens. Within a household, primary cases were those with the earliest symptom onset and a positive viral test result; secondary cases were household contacts (HHCs) with symptom onset 1-7 days from the primary case onset. Transmission households had at least 1 secondary case. Results: Our analysis included 570 primary cases with 1479 HHCs. The overall secondary attack rate was 23%. HHCs were likely to become secondary cases (n = 338) if they were <5 years old (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.6). Secondary transmission was likely to occur if the primary case was aged <5 years (aOR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4-3.6) or 5 to 17 years (aOR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.9-5.7), was norovirus positive (aOR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.9-3.7), had a diapered contact (aOR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.6-3.2), or reported symptoms for >4 days (aOR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1). Households with ≥3 members (aOR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.1-4.5) were more likely to experience transmission. Discussion: Risk of AGE transmission within households increased if the primary case was younger, was norovirus positive, had a longer symptom duration, or had a diapered contact. Targeted prevention messaging around appropriate cleaning, disinfection, and isolation of persons with AGE should be encouraged.

Correlates of healthcare-seeking behavior for acute gastroenteritis-United States, October 1, 2016 -September 30, 2017.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, public health surveillance systems often underestimate the burden of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) because they only identify disease among those who interact with the healthcare system. OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with healthcare-seeking behavior among individuals experiencing community-acquired AGE. METHODS: From October 2016 -September 2017, we conducted a weekly, age-stratified, random sample of Kaiser Permanente Northwest members located in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, United States. Individuals who completed the online survey and experienced AGE were included in the analysis. Univariate and multivariable logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of healthcare-seeking behavior. RESULTS: Of the 3,894 survey respondents, 395 experienced an AGE episode and were eligible for analysis, of whom, 82 (21%) sought care for their AGE episode. In the final multivariable model, individuals with a concurrent fever (odds ratio [OR]: 4.76, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 2.48-9.13), increased diarrhea duration (≥6 days vs 1-4 days, OR: 4.22, 95% CI: 1.78-10.03), or increased vomiting duration (≥3 days vs 1 days, OR: 2.97, 95% CI: 1.22-7.26), were significantly more likely to seek healthcare. In the adjusted model, no sociodemographic or chronic disease variables were associated with healthcare-seeking behavior. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that individuals with a short duration of AGE and those without concurrent fever are underrepresented in healthcare facility-based surveillance systems.

Burden of Respiratory Viruses in Children Less Than 2 Years Old in a Community-based Longitudinal US Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viral infections are a major cause of morbidity and hospitalization in young children. Nevertheless, the population burden of respiratory viral infections, especially asymptomatic cases, is not known due to the lack of prospective community-based cohort studies with intensive monitoring. METHODS: To address this gap, we enacted the PREVAIL cohort, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-sponsored birth cohort in Cincinnati, Ohio, where children were followed from 0 to 2 years of age. Weekly text surveys were administered to record acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs), which were defined as the presence of cough or fever (≥38°C). Weekly midturbinate nasal swabs were collected and tested using the Luminex Respiratory Pathogen Panel, which detected 16 viral pathogens. Viral infection was defined as ≥1 positive tests from the same virus or viral subtype ≤30 days of a previous positive test. Maternal report and medical chart abstractions identified healthcare utilization. RESULTS: From 4/2017 to 7/2020, 245 mother-infant pairs were recruited and followed. From the 13 781 nasal swabs tested, a total of 2211 viral infections were detected, of which 821 (37%) were symptomatic. Children experienced 9.4 respiratory viral infections/child-year; half were rhinovirus/enterovirus. Viral ARI incidence was 3.3 episodes/child-year. Emergency department visits or hospitalization occurred with only 15% of respiratory syncytial virus infections, 10% of influenza infections, and only 4% of all viral infections. Regardless of pathogen, most infections were asymptomatic or mild. CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory viral infections are common in children 0-2 years. Most viral infections are asymptomatic or non-medically attended, underscoring the importance of community-based cohort studies.

Spatiotemporal Trends in Norovirus Outbreaks in the United States, 2009-2019.

BACKGROUND: Globally, noroviruses cause infections year-round but have recognized winter seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere and yearly variations in incidence. With candidate norovirus vaccines in development, understanding temporal and geographic trends in norovirus disease is important to inform potential vaccination strategies and evaluate vaccine impact. METHODS: We analyzed data from the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) and CaliciNet on single-state norovirus outbreaks that occurred during August 2009-July 2019 in the contiguous United States. We defined norovirus season onset and offset as the weeks by which 10% and 90% of norovirus outbreaks in a surveillance year occurred, respectively, and duration as the difference in weeks between onset and offset. We compared norovirus seasons across surveillance years and geographic regions. RESULTS: During August 2009-July 2019, 24 995 single-state norovirus outbreaks were reported to NORS and/or CaliciNet. Nationally, the median norovirus season duration was 24 weeks, with onset occurring between October and December and offset occurring between April and May. Across all years combined, we observed a west-to-east trend in seasonality, with the earliest onset (October) and latest offset (May) occurring in western regions and the latest onset (December) and earliest offset (April) occurring in northeastern regions. CONCLUSIONS: Timing and duration of the US norovirus season varied annually but generally occurred during October-May. Norovirus wintertime seasonality was less distinct in western regions and was progressively more pronounced moving east. Further understanding the drivers of spatiotemporal dynamics of norovirus could provide insights into factors that promote virus transmission and help guide future interventions.

Neighbourhood socio-economic environment predicts adiposity and obesity risk in children under two.

BACKGROUND: Neighbourhood socio-economic environment (SEE) is associated with obesity in older children and adults, but little is known about this relationship in younger children. Breastfeeding is an important preventative of adiposity in childhood, but its relationship with neighbourhood SEE is unknown. AIMS: We assessed differences in adiposity and obesity in children before age two by neighbourhood SEE, controlling for family socio-demographics and breastfeeding duration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Family socio-demographics, child body mass index z scores (BMIz), and breastfeeding duration were collected at periodic study visits from participants in PREVAIL (n = 245), a birth cohort in Cincinnati, OH. Addresses were assigned a Deprivation Index score, a validated measure of SEE, and dichotomized into highest SEE (least deprived quartile of scores) and not highest SEE (remaining quartiles). Longitudinal and Poisson models assessed differences in BMIz by SEE over the second year of life and obesity risk at age two, respectively (highest SEE, reference), while attenuation of obesity risk by breastfeeding duration was tested in mediation models. RESULTS: Residing outside of the highest SEE neighbourhoods was associated with an increased BMIz of 0.04 (95%CI 0.02, 0.06) per month of life and increased obesity risk at age two (aRR: 3.7, 95%CI 1.2, 16.2), controlling for family socio-demographics. Breastfeeding duration attenuated >9% of the obesity risk attributable to SEE (mediated RR: 3.4, 95%CI 1.1, 14.8). DISCUSSION: In the PREVAIL Cohort, residing outside of the highest SEE neighbourhoods predicted a significant increase in BMIz and obesity risk in children before age two, a relationship that was partially mediated by breastfeeding duration. CONCLUSION: Breastfeeding support may play an important role in reducing obesity rates in children in lower SEE neighbourhoods.

Childcare and School Acute Gastroenteritis Outbreaks: 2009-2020.

OBJECTIVES: Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) outbreaks commonly occur in congregate settings, including schools and childcare facilities. These outbreaks disrupt institutions, causing absences and temporary facility closures. This study analyzed the epidemiology of school and childcare AGE outbreaks in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed AGE outbreaks occurring in kindergarten to grade 12 schools and childcare facilities reported via the National Outbreak Reporting System in the United States from 2009 to 2019 and compared this information to 2020 data. Outbreak and case characteristics were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test, χ2 goodness-of-fit test, and Fisher exact test. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2019, there were 2623 school, 1972 childcare, and 38 school and childcare outbreaks. School outbreaks were larger (median, 29 cases) than childcare outbreaks (median, 10 cases). Childcare outbreaks were longer (median, 15 days) than school outbreaks (median, 9 days). Norovirus (2383 outbreaks; 110 190 illnesses) and Shigella spp. (756 outbreaks; 9123 illnesses) were the most reported etiologies. Norovirus was the leading etiology in schools; norovirus and Shigella spp. were dominant etiologies in childcare centers. Most (85.7%) outbreaks were spread via person-to-person contact. In 2020, 123 outbreaks were reported, 85% in the first quarter. CONCLUSIONS: Schools and childcare centers are common AGE outbreak settings in the United States. Most outbreaks were caused by norovirus and Shigella spp. and spread via person-to-person transmission. Fewer outbreaks were reported in 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic. Prevention and control efforts should focus on interrupting transmission, including environmental disinfection, proper handwashing, safe diapering, and exclusion of ill persons.

Incidence, Etiology, and Healthcare Utilization for Acute Gastroenteritis in the Community, United States.

Knowledge of the epidemiology of sporadic acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in the United States is limited. During September 2016-September 2017, we surveyed Kaiser Permanente Northwest members in Oregon and Washington, USA, to collect data on the 30-day prevalence of dually defined AGE and diarrhea disease and related health-seeking behavior; from a subset of participants, we obtained a stool specimen. Using the iterative proportional fitting algorithm with raked weights, we generated AGE prevalence and annualized rate estimates. We detected norovirus, rotavirus, astrovirus, and sapovirus from submitted stool specimens through real-time quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR). We estimated a 30-day prevalence of 10.4% for AGE and 7.6% for diarrhea only; annual rates were 1.27 cases/person/year for AGE and 0.92 cases/person/year for diarrhea only. Of those with AGE, 19% sought medical care. Almost one quarter (22.4%) of stool specimens from those reporting AGE tested positive for ≥1 viral pathogen, compared with 8.2% from those without AGE.

Rotavirus Vaccine Impact Within an Integrated Healthcare Delivery System in the United States.

We assessed rotavirus vaccine impact using data on acute gastroenteritis (AGE) encounters within an integrated healthcare delivery system during 2000-2018. Following rotavirus vaccine introduction, all-cause AGE rates among children <5 years declined by 36% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 32%-40%) for outpatient and 54% (95% CI: 46%-60%) for inpatient encounters.

Norovirus Outbreaks in Long-term Care Facilities in the United States, 2009-2018: A Decade of Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, norovirus is the leading cause of healthcare-associated gastroenteritis outbreaks. To inform prevention efforts, we describe the epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) collect epidemiologic and laboratory data on norovirus outbreaks from US health departments through the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) and CaliciNet. Reports from both systems were merged, and norovirus outbreaks in nursing homes, assisted living, and other LTCFs occurring in 2009-2018 were analyzed. Data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the National Center for Health Statistics were used to estimate state LTCF counts. RESULTS: During 2009-2018, 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico reported 13 092 norovirus outbreaks and 416 284 outbreak-associated cases in LTCFs. Participation in NORS and CaliciNet increased from 2009 to 2014 and median reporting of LTCF norovirus outbreaks stabilized at 4.1 outbreaks per 100 LTCFs (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.0-7.1) annually since 2014. Most outbreaks were spread via person-to-person transmission (90.4%), and 75% occurred during December-March. Genogroup was reported for 7292 outbreaks with 862 (11.8%) positive for GI and 6370 (87.3%) for GII. Among 4425 GII outbreaks with typing data, 3618 (81.8%) were GII.4. LTCF residents had higher attack rates than staff (median 29.0% vs 10.9%; P < .001). For every 1000 cases, there were 21.6 hospitalizations and 2.3 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: LTCFs have a high burden of norovirus outbreaks. Most LTCF norovirus outbreaks occurred during winter months and were spread person-to-person. Outbreak surveillance can inform development of interventions for this vulnerable population, such as vaccines targeting GII.4 norovirus strains.

Enteric Illness Outbreaks Reported Through the National Outbreak Reporting System-United States, 2009-2019.

BACKGROUND: The National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) captures data on foodborne, waterborne, and enteric illness outbreaks in the United States. This study describes enteric illness outbreaks reported during 11 years of surveillance. METHODS: We extracted finalized reports from NORS for outbreaks occurring during 2009-2019. Outbreaks were included if caused by an enteric etiology or if any patients reported diarrhea, vomiting, bloody stools, or unspecified acute gastroenteritis. RESULTS: A total of 38 395 outbreaks met inclusion criteria, increasing from 1932 in 2009 to 3889 in 2019. Outbreaks were most commonly transmitted through person-to-person contact (n = 23 812; 62%) and contaminated food (n = 9234; 24%). Norovirus was the most commonly reported etiology, reported in 22 820 (59%) outbreaks, followed by Salmonella (n = 2449; 6%) and Shigella (n = 1171; 3%). Norovirus outbreaks were significantly larger, with a median of 22 illnesses per outbreak, than outbreaks caused by the other most common outbreak etiologies (P < .0001, all comparisons). Hospitalization rates were higher in outbreaks caused by Salmonella and Escherichia coli outbreaks (20.9% and 22.8%, respectively) than those caused by norovirus (2%). Case fatality rate was highest in E. coli outbreaks (0.5%) and lowest in Shigella and Campylobacter outbreaks (0.02%). CONCLUSIONS: Norovirus caused the most outbreaks and outbreak-associated illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. However, persons in E. coli and Salmonella outbreaks were more likely to be hospitalized or die. Outbreak surveillance through NORS provides the relative contributions of each mode of transmission and etiology for reported enteric illness outbreaks, which can guide targeted interventions.

Norovirus and Other Viral Causes of Medically Attended Acute Gastroenteritis Across the Age Spectrum: Results from the Medically Attended Acute Gastroenteritis Study in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) causes a substantial burden in the United States, but its etiology frequently remains undetermined. Active surveillance within an integrated healthcare delivery system was used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of medically attended norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus. METHODS: Active surveillance was conducted among all enrolled members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest during July 2014-June 2016. An age-stratified, representative sample of AGE-associated medical encounters were recruited to provide a stool specimen to be tested for norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus. Medically attended AGE (MAAGE) encounters for a patient occurring within 30 days were grouped into 1 episode, and all-cause MAAGE incidence was calculated. Pathogen- and healthcare setting-specific incidence estimates were calculated using age-stratified bootstrapping. RESULTS: The overall incidence of MAAGE was 40.6 episodes per 1000 person-years (PY), with most episodes requiring no more than outpatient care. Norovirus was the most frequently detected pathogen, with an incidence of 5.5 medically attended episodes per 1000 PY. Incidence of norovirus MAAGE was highest among children aged < 5 years (20.4 episodes per 1000 PY), followed by adults aged ≥ 65 years (4.5 episodes per 1000 PY). Other study pathogens showed similar patterns by age, but lower overall incidence (sapovirus: 2.4 per 1000 PY; astrovirus: 1.3 per 1000 PY; rotavirus: 0.5 per 1000 PY). CONCLUSIONS: Viral enteropathogens, particularly norovirus, are important contributors to MAAGE, especially among children < 5 years of age. The present findings underline the importance of judicious antibiotics use for pediatric AGE and suggest that an effective norovirus vaccine could substantially reduce MAAGE.

Immunologic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Norovirus Transmission in Daycare and School Outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus outbreaks are notoriously explosive, with dramatic symptomology and rapid disease spread. Children are particularly vulnerable to infection and drive norovirus transmission due to their high contact rates with each other and the environment. Despite the explosive nature of norovirus outbreaks, attack rates in schools and daycares remain low with the majority of students not reporting symptoms. METHODS: We explore immunologic and epidemiologic mechanisms that may underlie epidemic norovirus transmission dynamics using a disease transmission model. Towards this end, we compared different model scenarios, including innate resistance and acquired immunity (collectively denoted 'immunity'), stochastic extinction, and an individual exclusion intervention. We calibrated our model to daycare and school outbreaks from national surveillance data. RESULTS: Including immunity in the model led to attack rates that were consistent with the data. However, immunity alone resulted in the majority of outbreak durations being relatively short. The addition of individual exclusion (to the immunity model) extended outbreak durations by reducing the amount of time that symptomatic people contribute to transmission. Including both immunity and individual exclusion mechanisms resulted in simulations where both attack rates and outbreak durations were consistent with surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in daycare and school settings cannot be well described by a simple transmission model in which all individuals start as fully susceptible. More studies on how best to design interventions which leverage population immunity and encourage more rigorous individual exclusion may improve venue-level control measures. See video abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B795.

Cost-effectiveness of pediatric norovirus vaccination in daycare settings.

OBJECTIVE: Noroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the United States and outbreaks frequently occur in daycare settings. Results of norovirus vaccine trials have been promising, however there are open questions as to whether vaccination of daycare children would be cost-effective. We investigated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical norovirus vaccination for children in daycare settings compared to no vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using a disease transmission model of children attending daycare. Vaccination with a 90% coverage rate in addition to the observed standard of care (exclusion of symptomatic children from daycare) was compared to the observed standard of care. The main outcomes measures were infections and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Cost-effectiveness was analyzed from a societal perspective, including medical costs to children as well as productivity losses of parents, over a two-year time horizon. Data sources included outbreak surveillance data and published literature. RESULTS: A 50% efficacious norovirus vaccine averts 571.83 norovirus cases and 0.003 norovirus-related deaths per 10,000 children compared to the observed standard of care. A $200 norovirus vaccine that is 50% efficacious has a net cost increase of $178.10 per child and 0.025 more QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $7,028/QALY. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we estimated that a $200 vaccination with 50% efficacy was 94.0% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000/QALY threshold and 95.3% likely at a $150,000/QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: Due to the large disease burden associated with norovirus, it is likely that vaccinating children in daycares could be cost-effective, even with modest vaccine efficacy and a high per-child cost of vaccination. Norovirus vaccination of children in daycare has a cost-effectiveness ratio similar to other commonly recommended childhood vaccines.

Arsenic, blood pressure, and hypertension in the Strong Heart Family Study.

BACKGROUND: Arsenic has been associated with hypertension, though it is unclear whether associations persist at the exposure concentrations (e.g. <100 µg/L) in drinking water occurring in parts of the Western United States. METHODS: We assessed associations between arsenic biomarkers and systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and hypertension in the Strong Heart Family Study, a family-based cohort of American Indians from the Northern plains, Southern plains, and Southwest. We included 1910 participants from three study centers with complete baseline visit data (2001-2003) in the cross-sectional analysis of all three outcomes, and 1453 participants in the prospective analysis of incident hypertension (follow-up 2006-2009). We used generalized estimating equations with exchangeable correlation structure conditional on family membership to estimate the association of arsenic exposure biomarker levels with SBP or DBP (linear regressions) or hypertension prevalence and incidence (Poisson regressions), adjusting for urine creatinine, urine arsenobetaine, and measured confounders. RESULTS: We observed cross-sectional associations for a two-fold increase in inorganic and methylated urine arsenic species of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.07, 1.35) mm Hg for SBP, 0.49 (95% CI: 0.03, 1.02) mm Hg for DBP, and a prevalence ratio of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.21) for hypertension in fully adjusted models. During follow-up, 14% of subjects developed hypertension. We observed non-monotonic relationships between quartiles of arsenic and incident hypertension. Effect estimates were null for incident hypertension with continuous exposure metrics. Stratification by study site revealed elevated associations in Arizona, the site with the highest arsenic levels, while results for Oklahoma and North and South Dakota were largely null. Blood pressure changes with increasing arsenic concentrations were larger for those with diabetes at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a modest cross-sectional association of arsenic exposure biomarkers with blood pressure, and possible non-linear effects on incident hypertension.