Landscape planning for agricultural non-point source pollution reduction. II. Balancing watershed size, number of watersheds, and implementation effort.

Agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution poses a severe threat to water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In response, tremendous efforts have been directed toward reducing these pollution inputs by implementing agricultural conservation practices. Although conservation practices reduce pollution inputs from individual fields, scaling pollution control benefits up to the watershed level (i.e., improvements in stream water quality) has been a difficult challenge. This difficulty highlights the need for NPS reduction programs that focus efforts within target watersheds and at specific locations within target watersheds, with the ultimate goal of improving stream water quality. Fundamental program design features for NPS control programs--i.e., number of watersheds in the program, total watershed area, and level of effort expended within watersheds--have not been considered in any sort of formal analysis. Here, we present an optimization model that explores the programmatic and environmental trade-offs between these design choices. Across a series of annual program budgets ranging from $2 to $200 million, the optimal number of watersheds ranged from 3 to 27; optimal watershed area ranged from 29 to 214 km(2); and optimal expenditure ranged from $21,000 to $35,000/km(2). The optimal program configuration was highly dependent on total program budget. Based on our general findings, we delineated hydrologically complete and spatially independent watersheds ranging in area from 20 to 100 km(2). These watersheds are designed to serve as implementation units for a targeted NPS pollution control program currently being developed in Wisconsin.

Landscape planning for agricultural nonpoint source pollution reduction III: assessing phosphorus and sediment reduction potential.

Riparian buffers have the potential to improve stream water quality in agricultural landscapes. This potential may vary in response to landscape characteristics such as soils, topography, land use, and human activities, including legacies of historical land management. We built a predictive model to estimate the sediment and phosphorus load reduction that should be achievable following the implementation of riparian buffers; then we estimated load reduction potential for a set of 1598 watersheds (average 54 km(2)) in Wisconsin. Our results indicate that land cover is generally the most important driver of constituent loads in Wisconsin streams, but its influence varies among pollutants and according to the scale at which it is measured. Physiographic (drainage density) variation also influenced sediment and phosphorus loads. The effect of historical land use on present-day channel erosion and variation in soil texture are the most important sources of phosphorus and sediment that riparian buffers cannot attenuate. However, in most watersheds, a large proportion (approximately 70%) of these pollutants can be eliminated from streams with buffers. Cumulative frequency distributions of load reduction potential indicate that targeting pollution reduction in the highest 10% of Wisconsin watersheds would reduce total phosphorus and sediment loads in the entire state by approximately 20%. These results support our approach of geographically targeting nonpoint source pollution reduction at multiple scales, including the watershed scale.

Changes in the dissolved nitrogen pool across land cover gradients in Wisconsin streams.

Increases in anthropogenic nitrogen fixation have resulted in wide-scale enrichment of aquatic ecosystems. Existing biogeochemical theory suggests that N enrichment is associated with increasing concentrations of nitrate; however, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) is often a major component of the total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) pool in streams and rivers, and its concentration can be significantly elevated in human-influenced basins. We examined N concentrations during summer base flow conditions in 324 Wisconsin streams to determine whether DON was a significant component of TDN and how its relative contribution changed across a gradient of increasing human (agriculture and urban) land use for 84 of these sites. Total dissolved nitrogen varied from 0.09 to 20.74 mg/L, and although DON was significantly higher in human-dominated basins relative to forested and mixed-cover basins, its concentration increased relatively slowly in response to increasing human land cover. This limited response reflected a replacement of wetland-derived DON in low-N streams by anthropogenic sources in human-dominated sites, such that net changes in DON were small across the land use gradient. Nitrate-N increased exponentially in response to greater human land cover, and NH4-N and NO2-N were present at low levels. Nitrite-N exceeded NH4-N at 20% of sites and reached a maximum concentration of 0.10 mg/L. This examination suggests that basic mechanisms driving N losses from old-growth forests subject to N saturation also shape the summertime N pool in Wisconsin streams, in addition to other processes dictated by landscape context. The overwhelming role of human land use in determining the relative and absolute composition of the summertime N pool included (1) rapid increases in NO3-N, (2) limited changes in DON, and (3) the unexpected occurrence of NO2-N. High (>3 mg/L) TDN conditions dominated by NO3-N, regardless of landscape context or forms of N inputs, indicate a state of "N hypersaturation", which appears to be increasingly common in human-influenced streams and rivers. Many sites in agriculturally rich areas had NO2-N and NO3-N concentrations that, if sustained, are at chronically toxic levels for sensitive aquatic biota, suggesting that N enrichment now has local consequences for resident stream biota in addition to contributing to coastal eutrophication.

Landscape planning for agricultural nonpoint source pollution reduction I: a geographical allocation framework.

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution remains a persistent environmental problem, despite the large amount of money that has been spent on its abatement. At local scales, agricultural best management practices (BMPs) have been shown to be effective at reducing nutrient and sediment inputs to surface waters. However, these effects have rarely been found to act in concert to produce measurable, broad-scale improvements in water quality. We investigated potential causes for this failure through an effort to develop recommendations for the use of riparian buffers in addressing nonpoint source pollution in Wisconsin. We used frequency distributions of phosphorus pollution at two spatial scales (watershed and field), along with typical stream phosphorus (P) concentration variability, to simulate benefit/cost curves for four approaches to geographically allocating conservation effort. The approaches differ in two ways: (1) whether effort is aggregated within certain watersheds or distributed without regard to watershed boundaries (dispersed), and (2) whether effort is targeted toward the most highly P-polluting fields or is distributed randomly with regard to field-scale P pollution levels. In realistic implementation scenarios, the aggregated and targeted approach most efficiently improves water quality. For example, with effort on only 10% of a model landscape, 26% of the total P load is retained and 25% of watersheds significantly improve. Our results indicate that agricultural conservation can be more efficient if it accounts for the uneven spatial distribution of potential pollution sources and the cumulative aspects of environmental benefits.

Separating the determinants of phylogenetic community structure.

The role of competition in forbidding similar species from co-occurring has long been debated. A difficulty in identifying this repulsion of similar species is that similar species share similar environmental requirements and hence show an attraction to communities where these requirements are met. To disentangle these opposing patterns, we use phylogenetic relatedness as an objective metric of species similarities. Studying 11 sunfishes (Centrarchidae) from 890 lakes, we first show no phylogenetic pattern in the raw community data. We then regressed sunfish presence/absence against seven environmental variables and show that lakes with similar water clarity and latitude likely contain closely related species. After statistically removing the environmental effects, phylogenetic repulsion was apparent, with closely related sunfishes less likely to co-occur. Thus, both phylogenetic attraction, driven by environmental filtering, and phylogenetic repulsion, possibly caused by competition, simultaneously occur and obscure one another in the overall phylogenetic structure of sunfish communities.

Modeling spawning dates of Hucho taimen in Mongolia to establish fishery management zones.

The ecological impacts of recreational fisheries are of growing concern and pose a number of unique management challenges. Here we report on our efforts to provide guidance for managing a recreational fishery for taimen, the giant Eurasian trout (Hucho taimen) in Mongolia. This species has declined dramatically across its range of Siberia and Central Asia, and is currently listed as endangered in Mongolia. Strong populations persist in remote regions of Mongolia because of limited anthropogenic impacts and harvest, though interest in the fishery is expanding rapidly. Current fishing regulations list the spring "opening date" for taimen fishing as 15 June, although regulations have not been consistently enforced, partially because taimen spawn much earlier than 15 June in much of the country. Through a combination of statistical models, climate data, knowledge of taimen biology, and geographic information systems (GIS), we model taimen spawning dates for potential habitat in Mongolia. A parametric bootstrap procedure was used to simulate variability in spawning date derived from inter-annual climate variability and model error, from which we estimated the date in which taimen spawning is predicted to occur with 90% confidence. We recommend the designation of three fisheries management zones, with corresponding opening dates of 20 May, 1 June, and 15 June. Our fishery opening date recommendations are less restrictive than existing regulations. Provided there is little or no catch-and-release fishing mortality, this approach serves both environmental and human needs by protecting taimen during the reproductive period, while still allowing a post-spawning catch-and-release fishery that benefits local economies and generates revenue (through fishing concession fees) for local conservation efforts.

Forecasting the spread of invasive rainbow smelt in the Laurentian Great Lakes region of North America.

Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) have invaded many North American lakes, often resulting in the extirpation of native fish populations. Yet, their invasion is incipient and provides the rationale for identifying ecosystems likely to be invaded and where management and prevention efforts should be focused. To predict smelt presence and absence, we constructed a classification-tree model based on habitat data from 354 lakes in the native range for smelt in southern Maine. Maximum lake depth, lake area, and Secchi depth (surrogate measure of lake productivity) were the most important predictors. We then used our model to identify lakes vulnerable to invasion in three regions outside the smelt's native range: northern Maine (52 of 244 lakes in the non-native range), Ontario (4447 of 8110), and Wisconsin (553 of 5164). We further identified a subset of lakes with a strong potential for impact (potential-impact lakes) based on the presence of fish species that are affected by rainbow smelt. Ninety-four percent of vulnerable lakes in the non-native range in Maine are also potential-impact lakes, as are 94% and 58% of Ontario and Wisconsin's vulnerable lakes, respectively. Our modeling approach can be applied to other invaders and regions to identify invasion-prone ecosystems, thus aiding in the management of invasive species and the efficient allocation of invasive species mitigation and prevention resources.