Reconciling fossils with phylogenies reveals the origin and macroevolutionary processes explaining the global cycad biodiversity.

The determinants of biodiversity patterns can be understood using macroevolutionary analyses. The integration of fossils into phylogenies offers a deeper understanding of processes underlying biodiversity patterns in deep time. Cycadales are considered a relict of a once more diverse and globally distributed group but are restricted to low latitudes today. We still know little about their origin and geographic range evolution. Combining molecular data for extant species and leaf morphological data for extant and fossil species, we study the origin of cycad global biodiversity patterns through Bayesian total-evidence dating analyses. We assess the ancestral geographic origin and trace the historical biogeography of cycads with a time-stratified process-based model. Cycads originated in the Carboniferous on the Laurasian landmass and expanded in Gondwana in the Jurassic. Through now-vanished continental connections, Antarctica and Greenland were crucial biogeographic crossroads for cycad biogeography. Vicariance is an essential speciation mode in the deep and recent past. Their latitudinal span increased in the Jurassic and restrained toward subtropical latitudes in the Neogene in line with biogeographic inferences of high-latitude extirpations. We show the benefits of integrating fossils into phylogenies to estimate ancestral areas of origin and to study evolutionary processes explaining the global distribution of present-day relict groups.

A comprehensive phylogeny and revised taxonomy illuminate the origin and diversification of the global radiation of Papilio (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae).

The swallowtail genus Papilio (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) is species rich, distributed worldwide, and has broad morphological habits and ecological niches. Because of its elevated species richness, it has been historically difficult to reconstruct a densely sampled phylogeny for this clade. Here we provide a taxonomic working list for the genus, resulting in 235 Papilio species, and assemble a molecular dataset of seven gene fragments representing ca. 80% of the currently described diversity. Phylogenetic analyses reconstructed a robust tree with highly supported relationships within subgenera, although a few nodes in the early history of the Old World Papilio remain unresolved. Contrasting with previous results, we found that Papilio alexanor is sister to all Old World Papilio and that the subgenus Eleppone is no longer monotypic. The latter includes the recently described Fijian Papilio natewa with the Australian Papilio anactus and is sister to subgenus Araminta (formerly included in subgenus Menelaides) occurring in Southeast Asia. Our phylogeny also includes rarely studied (P. antimachus, P. benguetana) or endangered species (P. buddha, P. chikae). Taxonomic changes resulting from this study are elucidated. Molecular dating and biogeographic analyses indicate that Papilio originated ca. 30 million years ago (Oligocene), in a northern region centered on Beringia. A rapid early Miocene radiation in the Paleotropics is revealed within Old World Papilio, potentially explaining their low early branch support. Most subgenera originated in the early to middle Miocene followed by synchronous southward biogeographic dispersals and repeated local extirpations in northern latitudes. This study provides a comprehensive phylogenetic framework for Papilio with clarification of subgeneric systematics and species taxonomic changes enumerated, which will facilitate further studies to address questions on their ecology and evolutionary biology using this model clade.

Pulled Diversification Rates, Lineages-Through-Time Plots, and Modern Macroevolutionary Modeling.

Estimating time-dependent rates of speciation and extinction from dated phylogenetic trees of extant species (timetrees), and determining how and why they vary, is key to understanding how ecological and evolutionary processes shape biodiversity. Due to an increasing availability of phylogenetic trees, a growing number of process-based methods relying on the birth-death model have been developed in the last decade to address a variety of questions in macroevolution. However, this methodological progress has regularly been criticized such that one may wonder how reliable the estimations of speciation and extinction rates are. In particular, using lineages-through-time (LTT) plots, a recent study has shown that there are an infinite number of equally likely diversification scenarios that can generate any timetree. This has led to questioning whether or not diversification rates should be estimated at all. Here, we summarize, clarify, and highlight technical considerations on recent findings regarding the capacity of models to disentangle diversification histories. Using simulations, we illustrate the characteristics of newly proposed "pulled rates" and their utility. We recognize that the recent findings are a step forward in understanding the behavior of macroevolutionary modeling, but they in no way suggest we should abandon diversification modeling altogether. On the contrary, the study of macroevolution using phylogenetic trees has never been more exciting and promising than today. We still face important limitations in regard to data availability and methods, but by acknowledging them we can better target our joint efforts as a scientific community. [Birth-death models; extinction; phylogenetics; speciation.].