Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe. METHODS: Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics. RESULTS: The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Spatial clustering of fourteen tick species across districts of Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Ticks transmit several diseases that result in high morbidity and mortality in livestock. Tick-borne diseases are an economic burden that negatively affect livestock production, cost countries billions of dollars through vaccine procurement and other disease management efforts. Thus, understanding the spatial distribution of tick hotspots is critical for identifying potential areas of high tick-borne disease transmission and setting up priority areas for targeted tick disease management. In this study, optimised hotspot analysis was applied to detect hotspots and coldspots of 14 common tick species in Zimbabwe. Data on the spatial distribution of tick species were obtained from the Epidemiology Unit of the Division of Veterinary Field Services of Zimbabwe. RESULTS: A total of 55,133 ticks were collected with Rhipicephalus decoloratus being the most common species (28.7%), followed by Amblyomma hebraeum (20.6%), and Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (0.06%) being the least common species. Results also showed that tick hotspots are species-specific with particular tick species occupying defined localities in the country. For instance, Amblyomma variegatum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, Rhipicephalus decoloratus, Rhipicephalus compostus, Rhipicephalus microplus, Rhipicephalus pravus, and Rhipicephalus simus were concentrated in the north and north eastern districts of the country. In contrast, Amblyomma hebraeum, Hyalomma rufipes, Hyalomma trancatum and Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi were prevalent in the southern districts of Zimbabwe. CONCLUSION: The occurrence of broadly similar hotspots of several tick species in different districts suggests presence of spatial overlaps in the niche of the tick species. As ticks are vectors of several tick-borne diseases, there is high likelihood of multiple disease transmission in the same geographic region. This study is the first in Zimbabwe to demonstrate unique spatial patterns in the distribution of several tick species across the country. The results of this study provide an important opportunity for the development of spatially-targeted tick-borne disease management strategies.