RESUMO
Context and objective In intensive care units (ICU), clinicians have little information to identify COVID-19 patients at high risk of poor prognosis requiring intubation. Considering the clinical and biological parameters of the patients during their admission to ICU, we determined the incidence of a pejorative evolution requiring intubation, and secondarily we searched among the starting parameters, which were predictors of the intubation during follow-up Methods We conducted a monocentric retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted for moderate, severe or critical COVID-19/WHO clinical classification, during the first two waves of the pandemic in Kinshasa/DR Congo. Our primary end point was the incidence of intubation. Potential predictors of intubation were determined by the Cox regression analysis. The relative risk of death was assessed according to treatment with mechanical ventilation. (intubation) Results We included 219 patients (average age of 56.8 ±15.2 years; 75 % men), respectively 37 % in the 1st and 63 % in the 2nd wave of the pandemic.Cumulative incidence of intubation was 24% (1stwave: 26% vs 2nd wave: 24%). One-third of intubations were performed on the first 3 days versus two-thirds beyond the third day. The Cox's regression model showed that among data from the 1st day of ICU admission, those predicting intubation were: age (Hazard ratio: 1.025, CI 95%: 1.005-1.044), obesity (HR: 4.808; CI 95%: 2.660-8.696), corticosteroid therapy (HR: 0.313, CI 95%: 0.102-0.965), ROX index < 4.88 (HR: 2.024, CI 95 %: 1.003-4.080) and black race (HR: 0.502, CI 95%: 0.272-0.928). In total, 54 deaths (25 % of patients) were recorded with a higher relative risk (18.8) in intubated patients. Conclusion A quarter of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU could worsen and be intubated. The majority of intubations were performed after the third day of admission and mortality was high. The predictors of intubation that have been identified can help anticipate management by being proactive
Assuntos
Humanos , COVID-19 , Incidência , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , IntubaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Despite it being a global pandemic, there is little research examining the clinical features of severe COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to identify predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients at Kinshasa Medical Center (KMC). METHODS: In this retrospective, observational, cohort study carried out at the Kinshasa Medical Center (KMC) between March 10, 2020 and July 10, 2020, we included all adult inpatients (≥ 18 years old) with a positive COVID-19 PCR result. The end point of the study was survival. The study population was dichotomized into survivors and non-survivors group. Kaplan-Meier plot was used for survival analyses. The Log-Rank test was employed to compare the survival curves. Predictors of mortality were identified by Cox regression models. The significance level of p value was set at 0.05. RESULTS: 432 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were identified and only 106 (24.5%) patients with moderate, severe or critical illness (mean age 55.6 ± 13.2 years old, 80.2% were male) were included in this study, of whom 34 (32%) died during their hospitalisation. The main complications of the patients included ARDS in 59/66 (89.4%) patients, coagulopathy in 35/93 (37.6%) patients, acute cardiac injury in 24/98 (24.5%) patients, AKI in 15/74 (20.3%) patients and secondary infection in 12/81 (14.8%) patients. The independent predictors of mortality were found to be age [aHR 1.38; 95% CI 1.10-1.82], AKI stage 3 [aHR 2.51; 95% CI 1.33-6.80], proteinuria [aHR 2.60; 95% CI 1.40-6.42], respiratory rate [aHR 1.42; 95% CI 1.09-1.92] and procalcitonin [aHR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.14]. The median survival time of the entire group was 12 days. The cumulative survival rate of COVID-19 patients was 86.9%, 65.0% and 19.9% respectively at 5, 10 and 20 days. Levels of creatinine (p = 0.012), were clearly elevated in non-survivors compared with survivors throughout the clinical course and increased deterioration. CONCLUSION: Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients is high, particularly in intubated patients and is associated with age, respiratory rate, proteinuria, procalcitonin and acute kidney injury.
