US homicide rates increase when resources are scarce and unequally distributed.

As homicide rates spike across the United States, researchers nominate diverse causes such as temperature, city greenness, structural racism, inequality, poverty and more. While variation in homicide rates clearly results from multiple causes, many correlation studies lack the systematic theory needed to identify the underlying factors that structure individual motivations. Building on pioneering work in evolutionary human sciences, we propose that when resources are unequally distributed, individuals may have incentives to undertake high-risk activities, including lethal violence, in order to secure material and social capital. Here we evaluate this theory by analysing federal data on homicide rates, poverty and income inequality across all 50 US states for the years 1990, 2000 and 2005-2020. Supporting predictions derived from evolutionary social sciences, we find that the interaction of poverty (scarcity) and inequality (unequal distribution) best explains variation in US homicide rates. Results suggest that the increase in homicide rates during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic are driven in part by these same underlying causes that structure homicide rates across the US over the last 30 years. We suggest that these results provide compelling evidence to expand strategies for reducing homicide rates by dismantling structures that generate and concentrate sustained poverty and economic inequality.

Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya.

The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

Subsistence strategy mediates ecological drivers of human violence.

Inter-personal violence (whether intra- or inter-group) is a pervasive yet highly variable human behavior. Evolutionary anthropologists suggest that the abundance and distribution of resources play an important role in influencing differences in rates of violence, with implications for how resource conditions structure adaptive payoffs. Here, we assess whether differences in large-scale ecological conditions explain variability in levels of inter-personal human violence. Model results reveal a significant relationship between resource conditions and violence that is mediated by subsistence economy. Specifically, we find that interpersonal violence is highest: (1) among foragers and mixed forager/farmers (horticulturalists) in productive, homogeneous environments, and (2) among agriculturalists in unproductive, heterogeneous environments. We argue that the trend reversal between foragers and agriculturalists represents differing competitive pathways to enhanced reproductive success. These alternative pathways may be driven by features of subsistence (i.e., surplus, storage, mobility, privatization), in which foragers use violence to directly acquire fitness-linked social payoffs (i.e., status, mating opportunities, alliances), and agriculturalists use violence to acquire material resources that can be transformed into social payoffs. We suggest that as societies transition from immediate return economies (e.g., foragers) to delayed return economies (e.g., agriculturalists) material resources become an increasingly important adaptive payoff for inter-personal, especially inter-group, violence.

Climate change-induced population pressure drives high rates of lethal violence in the Prehispanic central Andes.

Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of­and the interaction between­climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry 14C-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 14C dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity­whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition­can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.

Climate and demography drive 7000 years of dietary change in the Central Andes.

Explaining the factors that influence past dietary variation is critically important for understanding changes in subsistence, health, and status in past societies; yet systematic studies comparing possible driving factors remain scarce. Here we compile the largest dataset of past diet derived from stable isotope δ13C‰ and δ15N‰ values in the Americas to quantitatively evaluate the impact of 7000 years of climatic and demographic change on dietary variation in the Central Andes. Specifically, we couple paleoclimatic data from a general circulation model with estimates of relative past population inferred from archaeologically derived radiocarbon dates to assess the influence of climate and population on spatiotemporal dietary variation using an ensemble machine learning model capable of accounting for interactions among predictors. Results reveal that climate and population strongly predict diet (80% of δ15N‰ and 66% of Î´13C‰) and that Central Andean diets correlate much more strongly with local climatic conditions than regional population size, indicating that the past 7000 years of dietary change was influenced more by climatic than socio-demographic processes. Visually, the temporal pattern suggests decreasing dietary variation across elevation zones during the Late Horizon, raising the possibility that sociopolitical factors overrode the influence of local climatic conditions on diet during that time. The overall findings and approach establish a general framework for understanding the influence of local climate and demography on dietary change across human history.

Using a multimethod life history approach to navigate the osteological paradox: A case study from Prehispanic Nasca, Peru.

OBJECTIVES: We leverage recent bioarchaeological approaches and life history theory to address the implications of the osteological paradox in a study population. The goal of this article is to evaluate morbidity and mortality patterns as well as variability in the risk of disease and death during the Late Intermediate period (LIP; 950-1450 C.E.) in the Nasca highlands of Peru. We demonstrate how the concurrent use of multiple analytical techniques and life history theory can engage the osteological paradox and provide salient insights into the study of stress, frailty, and resilience in past populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Crania from LIP burial contexts in the Nasca highlands were examined for cribra orbitalia (n = 325) and porotic hyperostosis (n = 270). All age groups and both sexes are represented in the sample. Survivor/nonsurvivor analysis assessed demographic differences in lesion frequency and severity. Hazard models were generated to assess differences in survivorship. The relationship between dietary diversity and heterogeneity in morbidity was assessed using stable δ15 N and δ13 C isotope values for bone collagen and carbonate. One hundred and twenty-four crania were directly AMS radiocarbon dated, allowing for a diachronic analysis of morbidity and mortality. RESULTS: The frequency and expression of both orbital and vault lesions increases significantly during the LIP. Survivor/nonsurvivor analysis indicates cranial lesions co-vary with frailty rather than robusticity or longevity. Hazard models show (1) decreasing survivorship with the transition into the LIP, (2) significantly lower adult life expectancy for females compared to males, and (3) individuals with cranial lesions have lower survivorship across the life course. Stable isotope results show very little dietary diversity. Mortality risk and frequency of pathological skeletal lesions were highest during Phase III (1300-1450 C.E.) of the LIP. CONCLUSION: Results provide compelling evidence of increasing physiological stress and mortality in the Nasca highlands during the LIP, but also reveal substantial heterogeneity in frailty and the risk of death. Certain members of society experienced a heavier disease burden and higher mortality compared to their contemporaries. Elevated levels of disease and lethal trauma among females account for some of the sex differences in survivorship but cannot explain the large degree of female-biased mortality. We hypothesize that parental investment in males or increased female fertility rates may explain these differences.

A genetic history of the pre-contact Caribbean.

Humans settled the Caribbean about 6,000 years ago, and ceramic use and intensified agriculture mark a shift from the Archaic to the Ceramic Age at around 2,500 years ago1-3. Here we report genome-wide data from 174 ancient individuals from The Bahamas, Haiti and the Dominican Republic (collectively, Hispaniola), Puerto Rico, Curaçao and Venezuela, which we co-analysed with 89 previously published ancient individuals. Stone-tool-using Caribbean people, who first entered the Caribbean during the Archaic Age, derive from a deeply divergent population that is closest to Central and northern South American individuals; contrary to previous work4, we find no support for ancestry contributed by a population related to North American individuals. Archaic-related lineages were >98% replaced by a genetically homogeneous ceramic-using population related to speakers of languages in the Arawak family from northeast South America; these people moved through the Lesser Antilles and into the Greater Antilles at least 1,700 years ago, introducing ancestry that is still present. Ancient Caribbean people avoided close kin unions despite limited mate pools that reflect small effective population sizes, which we estimate to be a minimum of 500-1,500 and a maximum of 1,530-8,150 individuals on the combined islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the dozens of generations before the individuals who we analysed lived. Census sizes are unlikely to be more than tenfold larger than effective population sizes, so previous pan-Caribbean estimates of hundreds of thousands of people are too large5,6. Confirming a small and interconnected Ceramic Age population7, we detect 19 pairs of cross-island cousins, close relatives buried around 75 km apart in Hispaniola and low genetic differentiation across islands. Genetic continuity across transitions in pottery styles reveals that cultural changes during the Ceramic Age were not driven by migration of genetically differentiated groups from the mainland, but instead reflected interactions within an interconnected Caribbean world1,8.

The character of conflict: A bioarchaeological study of violence in the Nasca highlands of Peru during the Late Intermediate Period (950-1450 C.E.).

OBJECTIVES: This study uses osteological and radiocarbon datasets combined with formal quantitative analyses to test hypotheses concerning the character of conflict in the Nasca highlands during the Late Intermediate Period (LIP, 950-1450 C.E.). We develop and test osteological expectations regarding what patterns should be observed if violence was characterized by intragroup violence, ritual conflict, intermittent raiding, or internecine warfare. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Crania (n = 267) were examined for antemortem and perimortem, overkill, and critical trauma. All age groups and both sexes are represented in the sample. One hundred twenty-four crania were AMS dated, allowing a detailed analysis of diachronic patterns in violence among various demographic groups. RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent (102/267) of crania exhibit some form of cranial trauma, a significant increase from the preceding Middle Horizon era. There are distinct trauma frequencies within the three subphases of the LIP, but Phase III (1300-1450 C.E.) exhibits the highest frequencies of all trauma types. Males exhibit significantly more antemortem trauma than females, but both exhibit similar perimortem trauma rates. DISCUSSION: There was chronic, internecine warfare throughout the Late Intermediate Period with important variations in violence throughout the three temporal phases. Evidence for heterogeneity in violent mortality shows a pattern consistent with social substitutability, whereby any and all members of the Nasca highland population were appropriate targets for lethal and sublethal violence. We argue that by testing hypotheses regarding the targets and types of conflict we are better able to explain the causes and consequences of human conflict.