NHS national data opt-outs: trends and potential consequences for health data research.

BACKGROUND: The English NHS data opt-out allows people to prevent use of their health data for purposes other than direct care. In 2021, the number of opt-outs increased in response to government-led proposals to create a centralised pseudonymised primary care record database. AIM: To describe the potential impact of NHS national data opt-outs in 2021 on health data research. DESIGN & SETTING: We conducted a descriptive analysis of opt-outs using publicly available data and the potential consequences on research are discussed. METHOD: Trends in opt-outs in England were described by age, sex, and region. Using a hypothetical study, we explored statistical and epidemiological implications of opt-outs. RESULTS: During the lead up to a key government-led deadline for registering opt-outs (from 31 May 2021-30 June 2021), 1 339 862 national data opt-outs were recorded; increasing the percentage of opt-outs in England from 2.77% to 4.97% of the population. Among females, percentage opt-outs increased by 83% (from 3.02% to 5.53%) compared with 76% in males (from 2.51% to 4.41%). Across age groups, the highest relative increase was among people aged 40-49 years, which rose from 2.89% to 6.04%. Considerable geographical variation was not clearly related to deprivation. Key research consequences of opt-outs include reductions in sample size and unpredictable distortion of observed measures of the frequency of health events or associations between these events. CONCLUSION: Opt-out rates varied by age, sex, and place. The impact of this and variation by other characteristics on research is not quantifiable. Potential effects of opt-outs on research and consequences for health policies based on this research must be considered when creating future opt-out solutions.

The risk of acute kidney injury in colorectal cancer survivors: an english population-based matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer survival has improved in recent decades but there are concerns that survivors may develop kidney problems due to adverse effects of cancer treatment or complications of the cancer itself. We quantified the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) in colorectal cancer survivors compared to people with no prior cancer. METHODS: Retrospective matched cohort study using electronic health record primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD linked to hospital data in England (HES-APC). Individuals with colorectal cancer between 1997-2018 were individually matched on age, sex, and GP practice to people with no prior cancer. We used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios for an incident hospital diagnosis of AKI in colorectal cancer survivors compared to individuals without cancer, overall and stratified by time since diagnosis adjusted for other individual-level factors (adj-HR). RESULTS: Twenty thousand three hundred forty colorectal cancer survivors were matched to 100,058 cancer-free individuals. Colorectal cancer survivors were at increased risk of developing AKI compared to people without cancer (adj-HR = 2.16; 95%CI 2.05-2.27). The HR was highest in the year after diagnosis (adj-HR 7.47, 6.66-8.37), and attenuated over time, but there was still increased AKI risk > 5 years after diagnosis (adj-HR = 1.26, 1.17-1.37). The association between colorectal cancer and AKI was greater for younger people, men, and those with pre-existing chronic kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: Colorectal cancer survivors were at increased risk of AKI for several years after cancer diagnosis, suggesting a need to prioritise monitoring, prevention, and management of kidney problems in this group of cancer survivors.

A high-throughput pipeline for DNA/RNA/small RNA purification from tissue samples for sequencing.

High-throughput total nucleic acid (TNA) purification methods based on solid-phase reversible immobilization (SPRI) beads produce TNA suitable for both genomic and transcriptomic applications. Even so, small RNA species, including miRNA, bind weakly to SPRI beads under standard TNA purification conditions, necessitating a separate workflow using column-based methods that are difficult to automate. Here, an SPRI-based high-throughput TNA purification protocol that recovers DNA, RNA and small RNA, called GSC-modified RLT+ Aline bead-based protocol (GRAB-ALL), which incorporates modifications to enhance small RNA recovery is presented. GRAB-ALL was benchmarked against existing nucleic acid purification workflows and GRAB-ALL efficiently purifies TNA, including small RNA, for next-generation sequencing applications in a plate-based format suitable for automated high-throughput sample preparation.

Timeliness of childhood vaccination in England: A population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Vaccine surveillance for children in England focuses on coverage at ages 1, 2, and 5 years. Previous studies exploring vaccine timeliness have used different arbitrary categories to define whether vaccines were received 'late' or 'on time'. This paper aims to provide more detailed and holistic information on timing and patterns of vaccine uptake across the childhood immunisation schedule in England. METHODS: We included all children born in England between 2006 and 2014 and registered in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum, a primary care electronic health record. We described vaccine uptake for representative antigens (pertussis, pneumococcus, measles) by age in days and stratified by ethnicity, region and birth cohort. Alluvial diagrams were used to illustrate common journeys through the vaccination schedule, and we applied survival analysis using accelerated failure time models (AFT) to predict age of vaccine receipt based on timing of previous doses. RESULTS: 573,015 children were followed up until their fifth birthday, when they had 90.16 % coverage for two doses of measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine and 88.78% coverage for four doses of diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (DTP) vaccine. Overall, the later the age at which a vaccine was due, the more delay in vaccination. Children of Black Ethnicity or from London showed deviating uptake patterns. If a child received their third DTP dose more than a year later than recommended, they would receive the next dose 2.7 times later than a child who was vaccinated on time. A smaller delay was found for children who did not receive first MMR dose on time. DISCUSSION: We showed that the risk of vaccination delay increased with the age of the child and significant delay of previous doses. Primary care data can help to promptly identify children at higher risk of delayed vaccination.

The genome sequence of the Loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta Linnaeus 1758.

We present a genome assembly of Caretta caretta (the Loggerhead sea turtle; Chordata, Testudines, Cheloniidae), generated from genomic data from two unrelated females. The genome sequence is 2.13 gigabases in size. The assembly has a busco completion score of 96.1% and N50 of 130.95 Mb. The majority of the assembly is scaffolded into 28 chromosomal representations with a remaining 2% of the assembly being excluded from these.

Bias assessment of a test-negative design study of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness used in national policymaking.

National test-negative-case-control (TNCC) studies are used to monitor COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in the UK. A questionnaire was sent to participants from the first published TNCC COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness study conducted by the UK Health Security Agency, to assess for potential biases and changes in behaviour related to vaccination. The original study included symptomatic adults aged ≥70 years testing for COVID-19 between 08/12/2020 and 21/02/2021. A questionnaire was sent to cases and controls tested from 1-21 February 2021. In this study, 8648 individuals responded to the questionnaire (36.5% response). Using information from the questionnaire to produce a combined estimate that accounted for all potential biases decreased the original vaccine effectiveness estimate after two doses of BNT162b2 from 88% (95% CI: 79-94%) to 85% (95% CI: 68-94%). Self-reported behaviour demonstrated minimal evidence of riskier behaviour after vaccination. These findings offer reassurance to policy makers and clinicians making decisions based on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness TNCC studies.

Challenges in Estimating the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Observational Data.

The COVID-19 vaccines were developed and rigorously evaluated in randomized trials during 2020. However, important questions, such as the magnitude and duration of protection, their effectiveness against new virus variants, and the effectiveness of booster vaccination, could not be answered by randomized trials and have therefore been addressed in observational studies. Analyses of observational data can be biased because of confounding and because of inadequate design that does not consider the evolution of the pandemic over time and the rapid uptake of vaccination. Emulating a hypothetical "target trial" using observational data assembled during vaccine rollouts can help manage such potential sources of bias. This article describes 2 approaches to target trial emulation. In the sequential approach, on each day, eligible persons who have not yet been vaccinated are matched to a vaccinated person. The single-trial approach sets a single baseline at the start of the rollout and considers vaccination as a time-varying variable. The nature of the confounding depends on the analysis strategy: Estimating "per-protocol" effects (accounting for vaccination of initially unvaccinated persons after baseline) may require adjustment for both baseline and "time-varying" confounders. These issues are illustrated by using observational data from 2 780 931 persons in the United Kingdom aged 70 years or older to estimate the effect of a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Addressing the issues discussed in this article should help authors of observational studies provide robust evidence to guide clinical and policy decisions.

Exploring the impact of mental health conditions on vaccine uptake in high-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is an essential public health intervention to reduce morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases. Despite being at higher at risk of infectious diseases, health inequalities towards vaccine uptake in people with mental health issues have not been systematically appraised. METHODS: We searched 7 databases from 1994 to 26/03/2021. We included all studies with a relative measure of effect comparing a group with a mental health issue to a control group. All studies covering any mental health issue were eligible with no constraints to study population, vaccine type or region, provided in a high-income country for comparability of health care systems. The study outcomes were synthesised by study population, mental health issue and type of vaccine. RESULTS: From 4,069 titles, 23 eligible studies from 12 different countries were identified, focusing on adults (n = 13) or children (n = 4) with mental health issues, siblings of children with mental health issues (n = 2), and mothers with mental health issue and vaccine uptake in their children (n = 6). Most studies focused on depression (n = 12), autism, anxiety, or alcoholism (n = 4 respectively). Many studies were at high risk of selection bias. DISCUSSION: Mental health issues were associated with considerably lower vaccine uptake in some contexts such as substance use disorder, but findings were heterogeneous overall and by age, mental health issue or types of vaccine. Only individuals with mental health issues and physical comorbidities had consistently higher uptake in comparison to other adults. Mental health should be considered as a health inequality for vaccine uptake but more context specific research is needed focusing more on specific mental health issues and subgroups of the population to understand who misses vaccination and why.

Primary prevention of acute cardiovascular events by influenza vaccination: an observational study.

AIMS: Previous studies show a reduced incidence of first myocardial infarction and stroke 1-3 months after influenza vaccination, but it is unclear how underlying cardiovascular risk impacts the association. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data from England between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2019. From the data, individuals aged 40-84 years with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccination occurring within 12 months of each September were selected. Using a self-controlled case series analysis, season-adjusted cardiovascular risk stratified incidence ratios (IRs) for cardiovascular events after vaccination compared with baseline time before and >120 days after vaccination were generated. 193 900 individuals with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccine were included. 105 539 had hypertension and 172 050 had a QRISK2 score ≥10%. In main analysis, acute cardiovascular event risk was reduced in the 15-28 days after vaccination [IR 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74)] and, while the effect size tapered, remained reduced to 91-120 days after vaccination [0.83 (0.81-0.88)]. Reduced cardiovascular events were seen after vaccination among individuals of all age groups and with raised and low cardiovascular risk. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccine may offer cardiovascular benefit among individuals at varying cardiovascular risk. Further studies are needed to characterize the populations who could derive the most cardiovascular benefits from vaccination.

Describing the population experiencing COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough following second vaccination in England: a cohort study from OpenSAFELY.

BACKGROUND: While the vaccines against COVID-19 are highly effective, COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough is possible despite being fully vaccinated. With SARS-CoV-2 variants still circulating, describing the characteristics of individuals who have experienced COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs could be hugely important in helping to determine who may be at greatest risk. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using routine clinical data from the OpenSAFELY-TPP database of fully vaccinated individuals, linked to secondary care and death registry data and described the characteristics of those experiencing COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs. RESULTS: As of 1st November 2021, a total of 15,501,550 individuals were identified as being fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with a median follow-up time of 149 days (IQR: ​107-179). From within this population, a total of 579,780 (<4%) individuals reported a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. For every 1000 years of patient follow-up time, the corresponding incidence rate (IR) was 98.06 (95% CI 97.93-98.19). There were 28,580 COVID-19-related hospital admissions, 1980 COVID-19-related critical care admissions and 6435 COVID-19-related deaths; corresponding IRs 4.77 (95% CI 4.74-4.80), 0.33 (95% CI 0.32-0.34) and 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.09), respectively. The highest rates of breakthrough COVID-19 were seen in those in care homes and in patients with chronic kidney disease, dialysis, transplant, haematological malignancy or who were immunocompromised. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases in England were mild, some differences in rates of breakthrough cases have been identified in several clinical groups. While it is important to note that these findings are simply descriptive and cannot be used to answer why certain groups have higher rates of COVID-19 breakthrough than others, the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 coupled with the number of positive SARS-CoV-2 tests still occurring is concerning and as numbers of fully vaccinated (and boosted) individuals increases and as follow-up time lengthens, so too will the number of COVID-19 breakthrough cases. Additional analyses, to assess vaccine waning and rates of breakthrough COVID-19 between different variants, aimed at identifying individuals at higher risk, are needed.

Guillain-Barré syndrome following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in the UK: a prospective surveillance study.

Objective: To investigate features of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and evaluate for a causal link between the two. Methods: We captured cases of GBS after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination through a national, open-access, online surveillance system. For each case, the certainty of GBS was graded using the Brighton criteria, and the relationship to the vaccine was examined using modified WHO Causality Assessment criteria. We compared age distribution of cases with that of prepandemic GBS cases and clinical features with the International GBS Outcome Study (IGOS). Results: Between 1 January and 30 June 2021, we received 67 reports of GBS following the ChAdOx1 vaccine (65 first doses) and three reports following the BNT162b2 vaccine (all first doses). The causal association with the vaccine was classified as probable for 56 (80%, all ChAdOx1), possible for 12 (17%, 10 ChAdOx1) and unlikely for two (3%, 1 ChAdOx1). A greater proportion of cases occurred in the 50-59 age group in comparison with prepandemic GBS. Most common clinical variants were sensorimotor GBS (n=55; 79%) and facial diplegia with paraesthesias (n=10; 14%). 10% (n=7/69) of patients reported an antecedent infection, compared with 77% (n=502/652) of the IGOS cohort (p<0.00001). Facial weakness (63% (n=44/70) vs 36% (n=220/620); p<0.00001) and sensory dysfunction (93% (n=63/68) vs 69% (n=408/588); p=0.00005) were more common but disease severity and outcomes were similar to the IGOS study. Interpretation: Most reports of GBS followed the first dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine. While our study cannot confirm or refute causation, this observation, together with the absence of alternative aetiologies, different than expected age distribution and the presence of unusual clinical features support a causal link. Clinicians and surveillance bodies should remain vigilant to the possibility of this very rare adverse event and its atypical variants.

Comparative effectiveness of ChAdOx1 versus BNT162b2 covid-19 vaccines in health and social care workers in England: cohort study using OpenSAFELY.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) covid-19 vaccines against infection and covid-19 disease in health and social care workers. DESIGN: Cohort study, emulating a comparative effectiveness trial, on behalf of NHS England. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 surveillance records available within the OpenSAFELY-TPP research platform, covering a period when the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was dominant. PARTICIPANTS: 317 341 health and social care workers vaccinated between 4 January and 28 February 2021, registered with a general practice using the TPP SystmOne clinical information system in England, and not clinically extremely vulnerable. INTERVENTIONS: Vaccination with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 administered as part of the national covid-19 vaccine roll-out. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recorded SARS-CoV-2 positive test, or covid-19 related attendance at an accident and emergency (A&E) department or hospital admission occurring within 20 weeks of receipt of the first vaccine dose. RESULTS: Over the duration of 118 771 person-years of follow-up there were 6962 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 282 covid-19 related A&E attendances, and 166 covid-19 related hospital admissions. The cumulative incidence of each outcome was similar for both vaccines during the first 20 weeks after vaccination. The cumulative incidence of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection 20 weeks after first-dose vaccination with BNT162b2 was 21.7 per 1000 people (95% confidence interval 20.9 to 22.4) and with ChAdOx1 was 23.7 (21.8 to 25.6), representing a difference of 2.04 per 1000 people (0.04 to 4.04). The difference in the cumulative incidence per 1000 people of covid-19 related A&E attendance at 20 weeks was 0.06 per 1000 people (95% CI -0.31 to 0.43). For covid-19 related hospital admission, this difference was 0.11 per 1000 people (-0.22 to 0.44). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of healthcare workers where we would not anticipate vaccine type to be related to health status, we found no substantial differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or covid-19 disease up to 20 weeks after vaccination. Incidence dropped sharply at 3-4 weeks after vaccination, and there were few covid-19 related hospital attendance and admission events after this period. This is in line with expected onset of vaccine induced immunity and suggests strong protection against Alpha variant covid-19 disease for both vaccines in this relatively young and healthy population of healthcare workers.

Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and immune-modifying therapies: a nationwide cohort study in the OpenSAFELY platform.

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and on immune-modifying drugs might not be fully mediated by comorbidities and might vary by factors such as ethnicity. We aimed to assess the risk of severe COVID-19 in adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and in those on immune-modifying therapies. Methods: We did a cohort study, using OpenSAFELY (an analytics platform for electronic health records) and TPP (a software provider for general practitioners), analysing routinely collected primary care data linked to hospital admission, death, and previously unavailable hospital prescription data. We included people aged 18 years or older on March 1, 2020, who were registered with TPP practices with at least 12 months of primary care records before March, 2020. We used Cox regression (adjusting for confounders and mediators) to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the risk of COVID-19-related death, critical care admission or death, and hospital admission (from March 1 to Sept 30, 2020) in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases compared with the general population, and in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases on targeted immune-modifying drugs (eg, biologics) compared with those on standard systemic treatment (eg, methotrexate). Findings: We identified 17 672 065 adults; 1 163 438 adults (640 164 [55·0%] women and 523 274 [45·0%] men, and 827 457 [71·1%] of White ethnicity) had immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, and 16 508 627 people (8 215 020 [49·8%] women and 8 293 607 [50·2%] men, and 10 614 096 [64·3%] of White ethnicity) were included as the general population. Of 1 163 438 adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, 19 119 (1·6%) received targeted immune-modifying therapy and 181 694 (15·6%) received standard systemic therapy. Compared with the general population, adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases had an increased risk of COVID-19-related death after adjusting for confounders (age, sex, deprivation, and smoking status; HR 1·23, 95% CI 1·20-1·27) and further adjusting for mediators (body-mass index [BMI], cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and current glucocorticoid use; 1·15, 1·11-1·18). Adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases also had an increased risk of COVID-19-related critical care admission or death (confounder-adjusted HR 1·24, 95% CI 1·21-1·28; mediator-adjusted 1·16, 1·12-1·19) and hospital admission (confounder-adjusted 1·32, 1·29-1·35; mediator-adjusted 1·20, 1·17-1·23). In post-hoc analyses, the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases was higher in non-White ethnic groups than in White ethnic groups (as it was in the general population). We saw no evidence of increased COVID-19-related death in adults on targeted, compared with those on standard systemic, therapy after adjusting for confounders (age, sex, deprivation, BMI, immune-mediated inflammatory diseases [bowel, joint, and skin], cardiovascular disease, cancer [excluding non-melanoma skin cancer], stroke, and diabetes (HR 1·03, 95% CI 0·80-1·33), and after additionally adjusting for current glucocorticoid use (1·01, 0·78-1·30). There was no evidence of increased COVID-19-related death in adults prescribed tumour necrosis factor inhibitors, interleukin (IL)-12/IL­23 inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors, IL-6 inhibitors, or Janus kinase inhibitors compared with those on standard systemic therapy. Rituximab was associated with increased COVID-19-related death (HR 1·68, 95% CI 1·11-2·56), with some attenuation after excluding people with haematological malignancies or organ transplants (1·54, 0·95-2·49). Interpretation: COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions were higher in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. We saw no increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in those on most targeted immune-modifying drugs for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases compared with those on standard systemic therapy. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at King's College London and Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, and Wellcome Trust.

Safety of COVID-19 vaccination and acute neurological events: A self-controlled case series in England using the OpenSAFELY platform.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the potential association of COVID-19 vaccination with three acute neurological events: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), transverse myelitis and Bell's palsy. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England we analysed primary care data from >17 million patients in England linked to emergency care, hospital admission and mortality records in the OpenSAFELY platform. Separately for each vaccine brand, we used a self-controlled case series design to estimate the incidence rate ratio for each outcome in the period following vaccination (4-42 days for GBS, 4-28 days for transverse myelitis and Bell's palsy) compared to a within-person baseline, using conditional Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 7,783,441 ChAdOx1 vaccinees, there was an increased rate of GBS (N = 517; incidence rate ratio 2·85; 95% CI2·33-3·47) and Bell's palsy (N = 5,350; 1·39; 1·27-1·53) following a first dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine, corresponding to 11.0 additional cases of GBS and 17.9 cases of Bell's palsy per 1 million vaccinees if causal. For GBS this applied to the first, but not the second, dose. There was no clear evidence of an association of ChAdOx1 vaccination with transverse myelitis (N = 199; 1·51; 0·96-2·37). Among 5,729,152 BNT162b2 vaccinees, there was no evidence of any association with GBS (N = 283; 1·09; 0·75-1·57), transverse myelitis (N = 109; 1·62; 0·86-3·03) or Bell's palsy (N = 3,609; 0·89; 0·76-1·03). Among 255,446 mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients there was no evidence of an association with Bell's palsy (N = 78; 0·88, 0·32-2·42). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccines save lives, but it is important to understand rare adverse events. We observed a short-term increased rate of Guillain-Barré syndrome and Bell's palsy after first dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine. The absolute risk, assuming a causal effect attributable to vaccination, was low.

Association between oral anticoagulants and COVID-19-related outcomes: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early evidence has shown that anticoagulant reduces the risk of thrombotic events in those infected with COVID-19. However, evidence of the role of routinely prescribed oral anticoagulants (OACs) in COVID-19 outcomes is limited. AIM: To investigate the association between OACs and COVID-19 outcomes in those with atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2. DESIGN AND SETTING: On behalf of NHS England, a population-based cohort study was conducted. METHOD: The study used primary care data and pseudonymously-linked SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing data, hospital admissions, and death records from England. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for COVID-19 outcomes comparing people with current OAC use versus non-use, accounting for age, sex, comorbidities, other medications, deprivation, and general practice. RESULTS: Of 71 103 people with atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2, there were 52 832 current OAC users and 18 271 non-users. No difference in risk of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 was associated with current use (adjusted HR [aHR] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.95 to 1.04) versus non-use. A lower risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (aHR 0.77, 95% CI = 0.63 to 0.95) and a marginally lower risk of COVID-19-related death (aHR, 0.74, 95% CI = 0.53 to 1.04) were associated with current use versus non-use. CONCLUSION: Among those at low baseline stroke risk, people receiving OACs had a lower risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and severe COVID-19 outcomes than non-users; this might be explained by a causal effect of OACs in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes or unmeasured confounding, including more cautious behaviours leading to reduced infection risk.

Household Tenure and Its Associations with Multiple Long-Term Conditions amongst Working-Age Adults in East London: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Using Linked Primary Care and Local Government Records.

Multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) are influenced in extent and nature by social determinants of health. Few studies have explored associations between household tenure and different definitions of MLTCs. This study aimed to examine associations between household tenure and MLTCs amongst working-age adults (16 to 64 years old, inclusive). This cross-sectional study used the 2019−2020 wave of an innovative dataset that links administrative data across health and local government for residents of a deprived borough in East London. Three definitions of MLTCs were operationalised based on a list of 38 conditions. Multilevel logistic regression models were built for each outcome and adjusted for a range of health and sociodemographic factors. Compared to working-age owner-occupiers, odds of basic MLTCs were 36% higher for social housing tenants and 19% lower for private renters (OR 1.36; 95% CI 1.30−1.42; p < 0.001 and OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.77−0.84, p < 0.001, respectively). Results were consistent across different definitions of MLTCs, although associations were stronger for social housing tenants with physical-mental MLTCs. This study finds strong evidence that household tenure is associated with MLTCs, emphasising the importance of understanding household-level determinants of health. Resources to prevent and tackle MLTCs among working-age adults could be differentially targeted by tenure type.

Investigating the optimal handling of uncertain pregnancy episodes in the CPRD GOLD Pregnancy Register: a methodological study using UK primary care data.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate why episodes of pregnancy identified from electronic health records may be incomplete or conflicting (overlapping), and provide guidance on how to handle them. SETTING: Pregnancy Register generated from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD UK primary care database. PARTICIPANTS: Female patients with at least one pregnancy episode in the Register (01 January 1937-31 December 2017) which had no recorded outcome or conflicted with another episode. DESIGN: We identified multiple scenarios potentially explaining why uncertain episodes occur. Criteria were established and systematically applied to determine whether episodes had evidence of each scenario. Linked Hospital Episode Statistics were used to identify pregnancy events not captured in primary care. RESULTS: Of 5.8 million pregnancy episodes in the Register, 932 604 (16%) had no recorded outcome, and 478 341 (8.5%) conflicted with another episode (251 026 distinct conflicting pairs of episodes among 210 593 women). 826 146 (89%) of the episodes without outcome recorded in primary care and 215 577 (86%) of the conflicting pairs were consistent with one or more of our proposed scenarios. For 689 737 (74%) episodes with recorded outcome missing and 215 544 (86%) of the conflicting pairs (at least one episode), supportive evidence (eg, antenatal records, linked hospital records) suggested they were true and current pregnancies. Furthermore, 516 818 (55 %) and 160 936 (64%), respectively, were during research quality follow-up time. For a sizeable proportion of uncertain episode, there is evidence to suggest that historical outcomes being recorded by the general practitioner during an ongoing pregnancy may offer explanation (73 208 (29.2%) and 349 874 (37.5%)). CONCLUSIONS: This work provides insight to users of the CPRD Pregnancy Register on why uncertain pregnancy episodes exist and indicates that most of these episodes are likely to be real pregnancies. Guidance is given to help researchers consider whether to include/exclude uncertain pregnancies from their studies, and how to tailor approaches to minimise underestimation and bias.

Barriers and facilitators of use of analytics for strategic health and care decision-making: a qualitative study of senior health and care leaders' perspectives.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the barriers and facilitators that senior leaders' experience when using knowledge generated from the analysis of administrative health or care records ('analytics') to inform strategic health and care decision-making. SETTING: One London-based sustainability and transformation partnership (STP) in England, as it was on the cusp of forming an integrated care system (ICS). PARTICIPANTS: 20 senior leaders, including health and social care commissioners, public health leads and health providers. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they were a senior leader of a constituent organisation of the STP and involved in using analytics to make decisions for their own organisations or health and care systems. DESIGN: Semi-structured interviews conducted between January 2020 and March 2020 and analysed using the framework method to generate common themes. RESULTS: Organisational fragmentation hindered use of analytics by creating siloed data systems, barriers to data sharing and different organisational priorities. Where trusted and collaborative relationships existed between leaders and analysts, organisational barriers were circumvented and access to and support for analytics facilitated. Trusted and collaborative relationships between individual leaders of different organisations also aided cross-organisational priority setting, which was a key facilitator of strategic health and care decision-making and use of analytics. Data linked across health and care settings were viewed as an enabler of use of analytics for decision-making, while concerns around data quality often stopped analytics use as a part of decision-making, with participants relying more so on expert opinion or intuition. CONCLUSIONS: The UK Governments' 2021 White Paper set out aspirations for data to transform care. While necessary, policy changes to facilitate data sharing across organisations will be insufficient to realise this aim. Better integration of organisations with aligned priorities could support and sustain cross-organisational relationships between leaders and analysts, and leaders of different organisations, to facilitate use of analytics in decision-making.

Comparison of methods for predicting COVID-19-related death in the general population using the OpenSAFELY platform.

BACKGROUND: Obtaining accurate estimates of the risk of COVID-19-related death in the general population is challenging in the context of changing levels of circulating infection. METHODS: We propose a modelling approach to predict 28-day COVID-19-related death which explicitly accounts for COVID-19 infection prevalence using a series of sub-studies from new landmark times incorporating time-updating proxy measures of COVID-19 infection prevalence. This was compared with an approach ignoring infection prevalence. The target population was adults registered at a general practice in England in March 2020. The outcome was 28-day COVID-19-related death. Predictors included demographic characteristics and comorbidities. Three proxies of local infection prevalence were used: model-based estimates, rate of COVID-19-related attendances in emergency care, and rate of suspected COVID-19 cases in primary care. We used data within the TPP SystmOne electronic health record system linked to Office for National Statistics mortality data, using the OpenSAFELY platform, working on behalf of NHS England. Prediction models were developed in case-cohort samples with a 100-day follow-up. Validation was undertaken in 28-day cohorts from the target population. We considered predictive performance (discrimination and calibration) in geographical and temporal subsets of data not used in developing the risk prediction models. Simple models were contrasted to models including a full range of predictors. RESULTS: Prediction models were developed on 11,972,947 individuals, of whom 7999 experienced COVID-19-related death. All models discriminated well between individuals who did and did not experience the outcome, including simple models adjusting only for basic demographics and number of comorbidities: C-statistics 0.92-0.94. However, absolute risk estimates were substantially miscalibrated when infection prevalence was not explicitly modelled. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed models allow absolute risk estimation in the context of changing infection prevalence but predictive performance is sensitive to the proxy for infection prevalence. Simple models can provide excellent discrimination and may simplify implementation of risk prediction tools.

Mortality among Care Home Residents in England during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study of 4.3 million adults over the age of 65.

BACKGROUND: Residents in care homes have been severely impacted by COVID-19. We describe trends in the mortality risk among residents of care homes compared to private homes. METHODS: On behalf of NHS England we used OpenSAFELY-TPP to calculate monthly age-standardised risks of death due to all causes and COVID-19 among adults aged >=65 years between 1/2/2019 and 31/03/2021. Care home residents were identified using linkage to Care and Quality Commission data. FINDINGS: We included 4,340,648 people aged 65 years or older on the 1st of February 2019, 2.2% of whom were classified as residing in a care or nursing home. Age-standardised mortality risks were approximately 10 times higher among care home residents compared to those in private housing in February 2019: comparative mortality figure (CMF) = 10.59 (95%CI = 9.51, 11.81) among women, and 10.87 (9.93, 11.90) among men. By April 2020 these relative differences had increased to more than 17 times with CMFs of 17.57 (16.43, 18.79) among women and 18.17 (17.22, 19.17) among men. CMFs did not increase during the second wave, despite a rise in the absolute age-standardised COVID-19 mortality risks. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on the mortality of care home residents in England compared to older residents of private homes, but only in the first wave. This may be explained by a degree of acquired immunity, improved protective measures or changes in the underlying frailty of the populations. The care home population should be prioritised for measures aimed at controlling COVID-19. FUNDING: Medical Research Council MR/V015737/1.