Phosphorus applications adjusted to optimal crop yields can help sustain global phosphorus reserves.

With the longevity of phosphorus reserves uncertain, distributing phosphorus to meet food production needs is a global challenge. Here we match plant-available soil Olsen phosphorus concentrations to thresholds for optimal productivity of improved grassland and 28 of the world's most widely grown and valuable crops. We find more land (73%) below optimal production thresholds than above. We calculate that an initial capital application of 56,954 kt could boost soil Olsen phosphorus to their threshold concentrations and that 28,067 kt yr-1 (17,500 kt yr-1 to cropland) could maintain these thresholds. Without additional reserves becoming available, it would take 454 years at the current rate of application (20,500 kt yr-1) to exhaust estimated reserves (2020 value), compared with 531 years at our estimated maintenance rate and 469 years if phosphorus deficits were alleviated. More judicious use of phosphorus fertilizers to account for soil Olsen phosphorus can help achieve optimal production without accelerating the depletion of phosphorus reserves.

Determining the likelihood and cost of detecting reductions of nitrate­nitrogen concentrations in groundwater across New Zealand.

Nitrate­nitrogen (NO3-N) is a contaminant of concern in groundwater worldwide. Stakeholders need information on the ability to detect changes in NO3-N concentrations to prove that land management practices are meeting water quality aims. We created a database of quarterly to monthly NO3-N measurements in 948 sites across New Zealand; 186 of those sites had mean residence time (MRT) data. New Zealand has set a target of sufficient land use mitigations in the next 30 years to ensure steady state surface water concentrations do not exceed 2.4 mg L-1. Here we assess whether the current monitoring network could identify the impacts of these mitigations, assuming that the mitigations are successfully implemented at the source. Only 41 % of the network could detect statistically significant reductions with the current standard quarterly sampling after 30 years of monitoring. The percentage of sites increased to 60 % with increased monitoring frequency (often weekly) but this required a 100-300 % increase in monitoring costs. However, policy makers and stakeholders typically require information on policy and mitigation effectiveness within 5-10 years. Detection within 5-10 years was very unlikely (0-20 % of sites) regardless of the sampling frequency. Importantly, these analyses include the impacts of groundwater lag and temporal dispersion on the likelihood of detecting change, ignoring these impacts, incorrectly, yields a much higher likelihood of detecting reductions. We conclude that the current monitoring network is unlikely to be fit for the purpose of detecting NO3-N reductions within practical timeframes or budgets. Furthermore, we conclude that lag and temporal dispersion effects must be included in detection power calculations; we therefore recommend that MRT data is regularly collected. We also provide a python package to enable easy detection power calculations with lag and temporal dispersion impacts, thereby supporting the development of robust change-detection monitoring networks.

Monitoring to detect changes in water quality to meet policy objectives.

Detecting change in water quality is key to providing evidence of progress towards meeting water quality objectives. A key measure for detecting change is statistical power. Here we calculate statistical power for all regularly (monthly) monitored streams in New Zealand to test the effectiveness of monitoring for policy that aims to decrease contaminant (phosphorus and nitrogen species, E. coli and visual clarity) concentrations to threshold levels in 5 or 20 years. While > 95% of all monitored sites had sufficient power and samples to detect change in nutrients and clarity over 20 years, on average, sampling frequency would have to double to detect changes in E. coli. Furthermore, to detect changes in 5 years, sampling for clarity, dissolved reactive phosphorus and E. coli would have to increase up to fivefold. The cost of sampling was predicted to increase 5.3 and 4.1 times for 5 and 20 years, respectively. A national model of statistical power was used to demonstrate that a similar number of samples (and cost) would be required for any new monitoring sites. Our work suggests that demonstrating the outcomes of implementing policy for water quality improvement may not occur without a step change in investment into monitoring systems. Emerging sampling technologies have potential to reduce the cost, but existing monitoring networks may also have to be rationalised to provide evidence that water quality is meeting objectives. Our study has important implications for investment decisions involving balancing the need for intensively sampled sites where changes in water quality occur rapidly versus other sites which provide long-term time series.

Linking the uptake of best management practices on dairy farms to catchment water quality improvement over a 20-year period.

Intensive land use, such as dairying, can impair water quality. Although many guidelines exist on how to mitigate the loss of dairy-associated contaminants from land to water through best management practices (BMPs), few datasets exist on the success of implementation on-farm. Five dairy-dominated catchments (from 598 to 2480 ha) in New Zealand were studied from 2001 to 2020. The first period, from 2001 to 2010, involved comprehensive "extension" advice to farmers consisting of workshops, stream water quality and flow monitoring, farm practice surveys, and identified solutions to address site-specific contaminant losses. In the second period (2011-2020), termed "post-extension", only water quality monitoring and farm practice surveys were continued. Of the water quality contaminants (including dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total phosphorus (TP), ammoniacal-nitrogen, nitrate-nitrite-nitrogen [NNN], suspended sediment and E. coli), 83 % of water quality trend directions were either improving (n = 16) or showed no change (n = 9) during the extension period. Over the 20-year dataset, which included the post-extension period, 20 out of 30 contaminant-catchment combinations (67 %) were improving, but nine were degrading, dominated by NNN (n = 4), DRP (n = 2) and E. coli (n = 2). Abrupt decreases in contaminant concentrations, were correlated with on-farm practice changes mainly associated with transition from direct discharge of farm dairy shed effluent to waterways to land application, and the capture of effluent from off-paddock facilities (like stand off or feed pads). Best management practices reduced phosphorus (P) forms, E. coli and sediment concentrations. Increase in NNN concentrations was caused by transitioning from flood to spray irrigation and a commensurate increase in cow numbers and NNN leaching. These data indicate that extension advice and on-farm practice change have helped to improve overall water quality over time. Nevertheless, recent regulatory threshold values for some contaminant concentrations are not being met, meaning that more actions are required, over and above the BMPs implemented.

A Global Database of Soil Plant Available Phosphorus.

Soil phosphorus drives food production that is needed to feed a growing global population. However, knowledge of plant available phosphorus stocks at a global scale is poor but needed to better match phosphorus fertiliser supply to crop demand. We collated, checked, converted, and filtered a database of c. 575,000 soil samples to c. 33,000 soil samples of soil Olsen phosphorus concentrations. These data represent the most up-to-date repository of freely available data for plant available phosphorus at a global scale. We used these data to derive a model (R2 = 0.54) of topsoil Olsen phosphorus concentrations that when combined with data on bulk density predicted the distribution and global stock of soil Olsen phosphorus. We expect that these data can be used to not only show where plant available P should be boosted, but also where it can be drawn down to make more efficient use of fertiliser phosphorus and to minimise likely phosphorus loss and degradation of water quality.

Phosphorus and iron-oxide transport from a hydrologically isolated grassland hillslope.

Dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) loss from agricultural soils can negatively affect water quality. Shallow subsurface pathways can dominate P losses in grassland soils, especially in wetter months when waterlogging is common. This study investigated the processes controlling intra- and inter-event and seasonal DRP losses from poorly drained permanent grassland hillslope plots. Temporal flow related water samples were taken from surface runoff and subsurface (in-field pipe) discharge, analysed, and related to the likelihood of anaerobic conditions and redoximorphic species including nitrate (NO3-) over time. Subsurface drainage accounted for 89% of total losses. Simple linear regression and correlation matrices showed positive relationships between DRP and iron and soil moisture deficit; and negative relationships between these three factors and NO3- concentrations in drainage. These data indicate that waterlogging and low NO3- concentrations control the release of P in drainage, potentially via reductive dissolution. The relationship between DRP and metal release was less obvious in surface runoff, as nutrients gathered from P-rich topsoil camoflaged redox reactions. The data suggest a threshold in NO3- concentrations that could exacerbate P losses, even in low P soils. Knowledge of how nutrients interact with soil drainage throughout the year can be used to better time soil N and P inputs via, for example, fertiliser or grazing to avoid to excessive P loss that could harm water quality.

The longevity of fencing out livestock as a method of decreasing contaminant concentrations in a headwater stream.

Water quality can be improved by fencing off streams from livestock. However, the remedial effect of fencing can fail as livestock trample near stream areas. Water samples were taken every 3-4 wk, and flow was monitored over time in a headwater stream from 2003 to 2019. In November 2005, the stream edge and an area near the stream used for wallowing by farmed red deer was fenced off and planted in native trees, shrubs, and grasses. Contaminant (nitrogen and phosphorus species, sediment, and the fecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli) concentrations decreased after fencing until at least 2013 (55-84%). However, nitrate concentrations more than doubled owing to the use of a portion of the catchment for a grazed winter forage crop in 2013. Most concentrations remained low after fencing, but sediment concentrations slowing increased (3% yr-1 ), which was attributed to animal tracking near the fence line. The presence of stock in the catchment enriched stormflow losses but prevented losses during baseflow. These data indicate that, when implemented well, fencing and planting could potentially sustain good water quality for decades in farmed red deer systems.

Minimizing phosphorus leaching from a sandy clay loam caused by phosphorus fertilizers.

At moderate to high fertilization rates, sandy-textured soils can leach much phosphorus (P) threatening surface water quality. High rates are used to compensate for P leaching, but there is also potential to reduce P leaching by using different P fertilizers. We examined the effect of poultry manure (PM), sheep manure (SM), triple superphosphate (TSP), sewage sludge of Sanandaj (SSS), sewage sludge of Toyserkan (SST), and biochars of Sanandaj and Toyserkan sewage sludges (BSSS and BSST, respectively) applied at a rate of 100 mg P kg-1 (equivalent to 220 kg P ha-1 yr-1, the current regional practice for capital applications designed to raise and maintain soil P in the region) on P leaching over 10 pore volumes (equivalent to 589 mm rainfall) through a sandy clay loam soil widespread in Iran (and the Middle East). Phosphorus leaching losses decreased in the following order: TSP > SM > PM > SST > BSSS > control > SSS > BSST. The leachability of fertilized soil was best estimated by measurement of the mobile KCl-P fraction. At the capital application rate used, SSs or their biochars represented the least risk of P leaching and could be used in place of highly soluble manures or TSP to either protect water quality or maintain more P in the soil. However, this should only occur after confirming that this substitution does not impair agronomic performance.

Do soil cadmium concentrations decline after phosphate fertiliser application is stopped: A comparison of long-term pasture trials in New Zealand?

Decreasing soil cadmium (Cd) is one method of removing Cd from the food chain. Phosphorus (P) fertilisers are a major source of Cd inputs into soil. Stopping P fertiliser should theoretically decrease Cd inputs and soil Cd accumulation, but there are few field data to show if this occurs. We examined three long-term grazed pasture trials in New Zealand (Ballantrae, Winchmore and Whatawhata) where P fertiliser had been applied (from 10 to 100 kg P ha-1 yr-1) for up to six years and then stopped for 10 to 26 years. Stopping P fertiliser applications reduced soil Cd concentrations at Winchmore and Whatawhata where P had been applied at ≥34 kg P ha-1 yr-1. No reductions occurred below this rate nor at Ballantrae where only 10 years post P-application data were available. Decreases were ascribed to moderate rainfall (1630 mm at Whatawhata and 740 mm rainfall plus 770 mm irrigation at Winchmore) that enhanced Cd leaching and may have been aided at Winchmore by a decrease in soil pH over time (0.4 units). However, because stopping P fertiliser inputs may quickly impair pasture production, additional strategies may be required to decrease soil Cd quickly.

Limiting grazing periods combined with proper housing can reduce nutrient losses from dairy systems.

Pasture-based and grass-fed branding are often associated with consumer perceptions of improved human health, environmental performance and animal welfare. Here, to examine the impacts of dairy production in detail, we contrasted global observational (n = 156) data for nitrogen and phosphorus losses from land by the duration of outdoor livestock grazing in confined, grazed and hybrid systems. Observational nitrogen losses for confined systems were lowest on a productivity-but not area-basis. No differences were noted for phosphorus losses between the systems. Modelling of the three dairy systems in New Zealand, the United States and the Netherlands yielded similar results. We found insufficient evidence that grazed dairy systems have lower nutrient losses than confined ones, but trade-offs exist between systems at farm scale. The use of a hybrid system may allow for uniform distribution of stored excreta, controlled dietary intake, high productivity and mitigation of animal welfare issues arising from climatic extremes.

Assessing the leaching of cadmium in an irrigated and grazed pasture soil.

To decrease the concentration of the toxic metal cadmium (Cd) in topsoil, and the human food chain, many countries have limited the Cd concentration allowed in phosphorus (P) fertilisers. However, to inform those limits we need accurate estimates of Cd leaching from established farming systems. Different soil layers were sampled to 2000 mm depth of a long-term trial that had applied 22.5 kg P ha-1 yr-1 for 67 years to grazed pastures that received either no irrigation or were irrigated when soil moisture fell below 10 or 20%. The annual yield of Cd leaching from the top 150 mm of soil to the 151-250 mm layer was between 1.1 and 1.8 g ha-1 with Cd leaching increasing with the frequency of irrigation. The rate of Cd accumulation measured to 2000 mm was within the mean and standard error estimated for treatments using a mass balance approach. Estimates of annual Cd leaching loss were like those established from field trials measuring leaching events over a year (0.3-1.8 g ha-1) with a similar rate of P application (9-24 kg P ha-1 yr-1). Using a Cd leaching rate of 1.8 g ha-1 yr-1 and P applications rates of 22.5 kg P ha-1, topsoil Cd concentrations may stop increasing if Cd concentrations in P fertiliser can be maintained at < 72 mg Cd kg-1 P.

The implications of lag times between nitrate leaching losses and riverine loads for water quality policy.

Understanding the lag time between land management and impacts on riverine nitrate-nitrogen (N) loads is critical to understand when action to mitigate nitrate-N leaching losses from the soil profile may start improving water quality. These lags occur due to leaching of nitrate-N through the subsurface (soil and groundwater). Actions to mitigate nitrate-N losses have been mandated in New Zealand policy to start showing improvements in water quality within five years. We estimated annual rates of nitrate-N leaching and annual nitrate-N loads for 77 river catchments from 1990 to 2018. Lag times between these losses and riverine loads were determined for 34 catchments but could not be determined in other catchments because they exhibited little change in nitrate-N leaching losses or loads. Lag times varied from 1 to 12 years according to factors like catchment size (Strahler stream order and altitude) and slope. For eight catchments where additional isotope and modelling data were available, the mean transit time for surface water at baseflow to pass through the catchment was on average 2.1 years less than, and never greater than, the mean lag time for nitrate-N, inferring our lag time estimates were robust. The median lag time for nitrate-N across the 34 catchments was 4.5 years, meaning that nearly half of these catchments wouldn't exhibit decreases in nitrate-N because of practice change within the five years outlined in policy.

Evidence for the leaching of dissolved organic phosphorus to depth.

Phosphorus (P) can leach from topsoil in inorganic and organic forms. While some evidence has shown inorganic P (orthophosphate) can leach to depth in some soils, less is known of dissolved organic P (DOP). This is not helped by a paucity DOP data for groundwater. We hypothesized that DOP species would leach in greater amounts to depth and at a faster rate through aquifer gravels than orthophosphate. We applied superphosphate with or without dung to a low P-sorption soil under pasture and irrigation. Between 0.7 (control) and 2.4 (dung +superphosphate) kg P ha-1 was leached through 30 cm with a mean ratio of DRP to DOP of 1.5. At 50 cm, 0.7 and 1.3 kg P ha-1 was leached with the DRP to DOP ratio decreasing to 1.1 due to greater DOP leaching (or DRP sorption). There was little difference in DRP losses measured at 50 and 150 cm depth. All DOP compounds except the monoester - inositol hexakisphosphate were leached at a faster rate than orthophosphate through aquifer gravels. These data suggest that where low P-sorption soils overlay similarly low P-sorption aquifers, DOP may reach groundwater at a faster rate than orthophosphate. Furthermore, as many DOP species are bioavailable to periphyton, our data suggest that DOP should be included in the assessment of the risk of P contamination of groundwater where connection to baseflow could be a long-term stimulant of periphyton growth.

Global mapping of freshwater nutrient enrichment and periphyton growth potential.

Periphyton (viz. algal) growth in many freshwater systems is associated with severe eutrophication that can impair productive and recreational use of water by billions of people. However, there has been limited analysis of periphyton growth at a global level. To predict where nutrient over-enrichment and undesirable periphyton growth occurs, we combined several databases to model and map global dissolved and total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations, climatic and catchment characteristics for up to 1406 larger rivers that were analysed between 1990 and 2016. We predict that 31% of the global landmass contained catchments may exhibit undesirable levels of periphyton growth. Almost three-quarters (76%) of undesirable periphyton growth was caused by P-enrichment and mapped to catchments dominated by agricultural land in North and South America and Europe containing 1.7B people. In contrast, undesirable periphyton growth due to N-enrichment was mapped to parts of North Africa and parts of the Middle East and India affecting 280 M people. The findings of this global modelling approach can be used by landowners and policy makers to better target investment and actions at finer spatial scales to remediate poor water quality owing to periphyton growth.

Direct Exports of Phosphorus from Fertilizers Applied to Grazed Pastures.

Since its discovery in 1669, phosphorus (P) in the form of fertilizer has become an essential input for many agroecosystems. By introducing a concentrated P source, fertilizers increase short-term P export potential soon after their application and longer-term export potential by increasing soil fertility (legacy P). The 4R concept was developed to help mitigate P exports from the fertilizers that sustain agricultural productivity. This review investigates the factors affecting P exports soon after the application of mineral fertilizers to pasture-based grazing systems and studies quantifying its potential impact in different systems, with an emphasis on Australasia. Initially, P fertilizers and reactions that might affect their short-term P export potential are reviewed, along with P transport pathways, the forms of P exported from grazing systems, factors affecting P mobilization into water, and studies demonstrating the possible short-term effects of fertilizer application on P exports. Using that foundation, we review studies quantifying the short-term impact of fertilizer application in different regions; they show that under poor management, recently applied fertilizer can contribute a considerable proportion (30-80%) of total farm P exports in drainage, but when fertilizer is well-managed, that figure is expected to be <10%. We then use three model systems of varying hydrology that are common to Australasia to demonstrate the principles for selecting fertilizers that are likely to minimize P exports soon after their application.

Assessing the Yield and Load of Contaminants with Stream Order: Would Policy Requiring Livestock to Be Fenced Out of High-Order Streams Decrease Catchment Contaminant Loads?

Catchment contaminant loads vary with stream order as catchment characteristics influence inputs and in-stream processing. However, the relative influence and policy significance of these characteristics across a number of contaminants and at a national scale is unclear. We modeled the significance of catchment characteristics (e.g., climate, topography, geology, land cover), as captured by a national-scale River Environment Classification (REC) system, and stream order in the estimation of contaminant yields. We used this model to test if potential regulation in New Zealand requiring livestock to be fenced off from large (high)-order streams would substantially decrease catchment contaminant loads. Concentration and flow data for 1998 to 2009 were used to calculate catchment load and yields of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) species, suspended sediment, and at 728 water quality monitoring sites. On average, the yields of all contaminants increased with increasing stream order in catchments dominated by agriculture (generally lowland and pastoral REC land cover classes). Loads from low-order small streams (<1 m wide, 30 cm deep, and in flat catchments dominated by pasture) exempt from potential fencing regulations accounted for an average of 77% of the national load (varying from 73% for total N to 84% for dissolved reactive P). This means that to substantially reduce contaminant losses, other mitigations should be investigated in small streams, particularly where fencing of larger streams has low efficacy.

Using the Provenance of Sediment and Bioavailable Phosphorus to Help Mitigate Water Quality Impact in an Agricultural Catchment.

The quality and health of surface waters can be impaired by sediment and sediment-bound phosphorus (P). The Waituna Lagoon catchment in southern New Zealand has undergone agricultural intensification that has been linked to increases in sediment and sediment-bound bioavailable P (BAP) in the lagoon. Time-integrated samplers trapped suspended sediment from the water column, and their geochemical signature was compared with likely sources (stream banks, stream beds, topsoil, and subsoil) in each of the lagoon's contributing streams and rivers. The proportion of BAP, but not necessarily total P, within trapped sediment was much greater in samples from the Moffat and Carran Creeks than from the Waituna Creek, probably due to the erosion of organic-rich soils that had little capacity to retain P compared with the more mineral soils of the Waituna Creek. Annually, most BAP and sediment came from bank erosion, and strategies such as fencing out stock should focus on minimizing this throughout the catchment. However, when considering losses in space and time relative to the impact on the Waituna Lagoon, strategies the Waituna Creek catchment should also minimize contributions from topsoil in winter-spring, whereas in the Carran and Moffat Creek catchments strategies need to decrease P inputs (e.g., effluent) to Organic soils likely to lose much BAP in summer-autumn when the impact on the Lagoon is quickest. This study highlighted the need to identify sources and timings of BAP and sediment loss before recommending mitigation practices, which without this information may be slow or not succeed.

Relationship between Sediment Chemistry, Equilibrium Phosphorus Concentrations, and Phosphorus Concentrations at Baseflow in Rivers of the New Zealand National River Water Quality Network.

Stream sediments can act as a source or a sink of dissolved (filtered) phosphorus (P) via abiotic and biotic processes. The cumulative action and magnitude of abiotic processes has been quantified by the equilibrium P concentration at zero net sorption or desorption (EPC). The EPC was determined in 76 large rivers of contrasting climate, topography, and geology across New Zealand. Measurements of EPC (0.004-0.065 mg L) indicated sediments were acting as a source of filtered reactive P (FRP) to the water column. The EPC was related to the proportion of intensive agriculture in the catchment, the concentration of readily available P in the sediment, sediment size, and catchment slope and elevation. Determination of EPC will yield a relative assessment of the sediment's ability to supply P to the water column especially at baseflow. Furthermore, the EPC may be less prone to short-term variation (e.g., diurnal patterns) compared with grab samples. This information will help target efforts to mitigate FRP concentrations in rivers by managing sediment inputs. Additional work is required to determine, for instance, how long an EPC measurement remains valid before new sediment is deposited or existing sediment is scoured.

Estimating the mitigation of anthropogenic loss of phosphorus in New Zealand grassland catchments.

Managing phosphorus in catchments is central to improving surface water quality, but knowing how much can be mitigated from agricultural land, and at what cost relative to a natural baseline (or reference condition), is difficult to assess. The difference between median concentrations now and under reference was defined as the anthropogenic loss, while the manageable loss was defined as the median P concentration possible without costing more than 10% of farm profitability (measured as earnings before interest and tax, EBIT). Nineteen strategies to mitigate P loss were ranked according to cost (low, medium, high, very high). Using the average dairy and drystock farms in 14 grassland catchments as test cases, the potential to mitigate P loss from land to water was then modelled for different strategies, beginning with strategies within the lowest cost category from best to least effective, before applying a strategy from a more expensive category. The anthropogenic contribution to stream median FRP and TP concentrations was estimated as 44 and 69%, respectively. However, applying up to three strategies per farm theoretically enabled mitigation of FRP and TP losses sufficient to maintain aesthetic and trout fishery values to be met and at a cost <1% EBIT for drystock farms and <6% EBIT for dairy farms. This shows that defining and acting upon the manageable loss in grassland catchments (with few point sources) has potential to achieve a water quality outcome within an ecological target at little cost.

A cost-effective management practice to decrease phosphorus loss from dairy farms.

Phosphorus (P) loss from land can impair surface water quality. A paired-catchment study was conducted on a grazed dairy farm that tested the hypothesis that cultivating and sowing a low-P-requiring grass in near stream areas and high-P-requiring clover ( L.) elsewhere lost less P to water and was potentially more profitable than a mixed grass-clover pasture managed for the cover component. Two catchments were treated the same for 2 yr, after which 40% of the treatment catchment was cultivated around the stream, sown in ryegrass ( L.) and fertilized with 150 kg nitrogen (N) ha yr and 10 kg P ha yr. White clover was established in the remainder of the catchment and received no N but 30 kg P ha yr. The control catchment received 150 kg N ha yr and 30 kg P ha yr. After the monocultures were installed, filterable reactive P and total P concentrations decreased by 44 and 26% respectively, while the better-quality forage suggested a possible improvement in profitability. We concluded that with some caveats (e.g., a 2% increase in modeled N loss), using grass-clover monocultures strategically across a dairy farm may decrease P loss to surface water and improve profitability compared with a mixed pasture.