Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples.

BACKGROUND: Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. MAIN BODY: For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013-14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication. CONCLUSIONS: These efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.

Bacterial septic arthritis infections associated with intra-articular injection practices for osteoarthritis knee pain-New Jersey, 2017.

BACKGROUND: In March 2017, the New Jersey Department of Health received reports of 3 patients who developed septic arthritis after receiving intra-articular injections for osteoarthritis knee pain at the same private outpatient facility in New Jersey. The risk of septic arthritis resulting from intra-articular injection is low. However, outbreaks of septic arthritis associated with unsafe injection practices in outpatient settings have been reported. METHODS: An infection prevention assessment of the implicated facility's practices was conducted because of the ongoing risk to public health. The assessment included an environmental inspection of the facility, staff interviews, infection prevention practice observations, and a medical record and office document review. A call for cases was disseminated to healthcare providers in New Jersey to identify patients treated at the facility who developed septic arthritis after receiving intra-articular injections. RESULTS: We identified 41 patients with septic arthritis associated with intra-articular injections. Cultures of synovial fluid or tissue from 15 of these 41 case patients (37%) recovered bacteria consistent with oral flora. The infection prevention assessment of facility practices identified multiple breaches of recommended infection prevention practices, including inadequate hand hygiene, unsafe injection practices, and poor cleaning and disinfection practices. No additional cases were identified after infection prevention recommendations were implemented by the facility. DISCUSSION: Aseptic technique is imperative when handling, preparing, and administering injectable medications to prevent microbial contamination. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation highlights the importance of adhering to infection prevention recommendations. All healthcare personnel who prepare, handle, and administer injectable medications should be trained in infection prevention and safe injection practices.

Serotype 10A in case patients with invasive pneumococcal disease: a pilot study of PCR-based serotyping in New Jersey.

In 2008, the New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH) identified a 21.1% increase in reported invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). In 2009, NJDOH piloted nucleic acid-based serotyping to characterize serotypes causing IPD. From April through September, NJDOH received specimens from 149 of 302 (49%) case patients meeting our case definition. An uncommon serotype, 10A, accounted for 25.2% of IPD overall and was identified in 12 counties, but it was associated with one county (rate ratio = 5.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1, 11.8). NJDOH subsequently conducted a case-control study to assess the presentation of and clinical risk factors for 10A IPD. Case patients with 10A IPD were more likely to have had immunosuppression, asthma, and multiple chronic medical conditions than control subjects had (odds ratio [OR] = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1, 6.3; OR=4.7, 95% CI 1.7, 13.2; and OR=2.3, 95% CI 1.0, 5.2, respectively). State-based pneumococcal serotype testing identified an uncommon serotype in New Jersey. Continued pneumococcal serotype surveillance might help the NJDOH identify and respond to future serotype-specific increases.

Tick paralysis: atypical presentation, unusual location.

We present 2 unrelated cases of tick paralysis presenting within a 2-month period in the greater Philadelphia region, a geographic area in which this disease is highly unusual. Our first patient demonstrated early onset of prominent bulbar palsies, an atypical presentation. Our second patient, residing in a nearby but distinct community, presented with ascending paralysis 2 months after the first. The atypical presentation of our first patient and the further occurrence within a few months of a second patient, both from the Northeastern United States where this diagnosis is rarely made, suggest the need to maintain a high index of suspicion for this disease in patients presenting with acute onset of cranial nerve dysfunction or muscle weakness. Through simple diagnostic and therapeutic measures (ie, careful physical examination to locate and remove the offending tick), misdiagnosis and unnecessary morbidity can be avoided.