Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability.

The Sun provides the energy required to sustain life on Earth and drive our planet's atmospheric circulation. However, establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge. The canon of solar variability is derived from the 400 years of observations that demonstrates the waxing and waning number of sunspots over an 11(-ish) year period. Recent research has demonstrated the significance of the underlying 22 years magnetic polarity cycle in establishing the shorter sunspot cycle. Integral to the manifestation of the latter is the spatiotemporal overlapping and migration of oppositely polarized magnetic bands. We demonstrate the impact of "terminators"-the end of Hale magnetic cycles-on the Sun's radiative output and particulate shielding of our atmosphere through the rapid global reconfiguration of solar magnetism. Using direct observation and proxies of solar activity going back some six decades we can, with high statistical significance, demonstrate a correlation between the occurrence of terminators and the largest swings of Earth's oceanic indices: the transition from El Niño to La Niña states of the central Pacific. This empirical relationship is a potential source of increased predictive skill for the understanding of El Niño climate variations, a high-stakes societal imperative given that El Niño impacts lives, property, and economic activity around the globe. A forecast of the Sun's global behavior places the next solar cycle termination in mid-2020; should a major oceanic swing follow, then the challenge becomes: when does correlation become causation and how does the process work?

Global maps of the magnetic field in the solar corona.

Understanding many physical processes in the solar atmosphere requires determination of the magnetic field in each atmospheric layer. However, direct measurements of the magnetic field in the Sun's corona are difficult to obtain. Using observations with the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter, we have determined the spatial distribution of the plasma density in the corona and the phase speed of the prevailing transverse magnetohydrodynamic waves within the plasma. We combined these measurements to map the plane-of-sky component of the global coronal magnetic field. The derived field strengths in the corona, from 1.05 to 1.35 solar radii, are mostly 1 to 4 gauss. Our results demonstrate the capability of imaging spectroscopy in coronal magnetic field diagnostics.

Triggering The Birth of New Cycle's Sunspots by Solar Tsunami.

When will a new cycle's sunspots appear? We demonstrate a novel physical mechanism, namely, that a "solar tsunami" occurring in the Sun's interior shear-fluid layer can trigger new cycle's magnetic flux emergence at high latitudes, a few weeks after the cessation of old cycle's flux emergence near the equator. This tsunami is excited at the equator when magnetic dams, created by the oppositely-directed old cycle's toroidal field in North and South hemispheres, break due to mutual annihilation of toroidal flux there. The fluid supported by these dams rushes to the equator; the surplus of fluid cannot be contained there, so it reflects back towards high latitudes, causing a tsunami. This tsunami propagates poleward at a speed of ~300 m/s until it encounters the new cycle's spot-producing toroidal fields in mid-latitudes, where it perturbs the fields, triggering their surface-eruption in the form of new cycle spots. A new sunspot cycle is preceded for several years by other forms of high-latitude magnetic activity, such as coronal bright points and ephemeral regions, until the tsunami causes the birth of new cycle's spots. The next tsunami is due by 2020, portending the start of intense 'space weather' that can adversely impact the Earth.

The Origin of the "Seasons" in Space Weather.

Powerful 'space weather' events caused by solar activity pose serious risks to human health, safety, economic activity and national security. Spikes in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and other diseases occurred during prolonged power outages. Currently it is hard to prepare for and mitigate the impact of space weather because it is impossible to forecast the solar eruptions that can cause these terrestrial events until they are seen on the Sun. However, as recently reported in Nature, eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic "seasons", which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods. We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline). Our results for the first time provide a quantitative physical mechanism for forecasting the strength and duration of bursty seasons several months in advance, which can greatly enhance our ability to warn humans about dangerous solar bursts and prevent damage to satellites and power stations from space weather events.

The solar magnetic activity band interaction and instabilities that shape quasi-periodic variability.

Solar magnetism displays a host of variational timescales of which the enigmatic 11-year sunspot cycle is most prominent. Recent work has demonstrated that the sunspot cycle can be explained in terms of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction between the overlapping activity bands of the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle. Those activity bands appear to be driven by the rotation of the Sun's deep interior. Here we deduce that activity band interaction can qualitatively explain the 'Gnevyshev Gap'­a well-established feature of flare and sunspot occurrence. Strong quasi-annual variability in the number of flares, coronal mass ejections, the radiative and particulate environment of the heliosphere is also observed. We infer that this secondary variability is driven by surges of magnetism from the activity bands. Understanding the formation, interaction and instability of these activity bands will considerably improve forecast capability in space weather and solar activity over a range of timescales.

Alfvénic waves with sufficient energy to power the quiet solar corona and fast solar wind.

Energy is required to heat the outer solar atmosphere to millions of degrees (refs 1, 2) and to accelerate the solar wind to hundreds of kilometres per second (refs 2-6). Alfvén waves (travelling oscillations of ions and magnetic field) have been invoked as a possible mechanism to transport magneto-convective energy upwards along the Sun's magnetic field lines into the corona. Previous observations of Alfvénic waves in the corona revealed amplitudes far too small (0.5 km s(-1)) to supply the energy flux (100-200 W m(-2)) required to drive the fast solar wind or balance the radiative losses of the quiet corona. Here we report observations of the transition region (between the chromosphere and the corona) and of the corona that reveal how Alfvénic motions permeate the dynamic and finely structured outer solar atmosphere. The ubiquitous outward-propagating Alfvénic motions observed have amplitudes of the order of 20 km s(-1) and periods of the order of 100-500 s throughout the quiescent atmosphere (compatible with recent investigations), and are energetic enough to accelerate the fast solar wind and heat the quiet corona.

Geometrical properties of avalanches in self-organized critical models of solar flares.

We investigate the geometrical properties of avalanches in self-organized critical models of solar flares. Traditionally, such models differ from the classical sandpile model in their formulation of stability criteria in terms of the curvature of the nodal field, and belong to a distinct universality class. With a view toward comparing these properties to those inferred from spatially and temporally resolved flare observations, we consider the properties of avalanche peak snapshots, time-integrated avalanches in two and three dimensions, and the two-dimensional projections of the latter. The nature of the relationship between the avalanching volume and its projected area is an issue of particular interest in the solar flare context. Using our simulation results we investigate this relationship, and demonstrate that proper accounting of the fractal nature of avalanches can bring into agreement hitherto discrepant results of observational analyses based on simple, nonfractal geometries for the flaring volume.