Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards.

Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, and societies become more urbanised and interconnected. This need is recognised by the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises the importance of preparing for the disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies that aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While the vast majority of natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced by historical context, some authors have sought to provide decision makers with risk-quantification approaches that can be used to cultivate a sustainable future. This Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work that has modelled and quantified the individual components that comprise tomorrow's risk, i.e., future natural hazards affected by climate change, future exposure (e.g., in terms of population, land use, and the built environment), and the evolving physical vulnerabilities of the world's infrastructure. We end with a discussion on the challenges faced by modellers in determining the risks that tomorrow's world may face from natural hazards, and the constraints these place on the decision-making abilities of relevant stakeholders.

Dynamic earthquake triggering response tracks evolving unrest at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands.

The propensity for dynamic earthquake triggering is thought to depend on the local stress state and amplitude of the stress perturbation. However, the nature of this dependency has not been confirmed within a single crustal volume. Here, we show that at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands, the intensity of dynamically triggered earthquakes increased as inflation of a magma reservoir elevated the stress state. The perturbation of short-term seismicity within teleseismic surface waves also increased with peak dynamic strain. Following rapid coeruptive subsidence and reduction in stress and background seismicity rates, equivalent dynamic strains no longer triggered detectable seismicity. These findings offer direct constraints on the primary controls on dynamic triggering and suggest that the response to dynamic stresses may help constrain the evolution of volcanic unrest.

Operations and outcomes of a Hospital-wide Emergency Airway Response Team (HEART) in a quaternary academic children's hospital.

BACKGROUND: To improve pediatric airway management outside of the operating room, a Hospital-wide Emergency Airway Response Team (HEART) program composed of anesthesiology, otorhinolaryngology, and respiratory therapy clinicians was developed. AIMS: To report processes and outcomes of HEART activations in a quaternary academic children's hospital. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study between January 2017 and December 2019. Local airway emergency database was reviewed for HEART activations. Additional safety data was obtained from patients' electronic health records. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Adverse airway outcomes, either adverse tracheal intubation-associated events or oxygen desaturation (SpO2 <80%). We compared airway management by primary teams before HEART arrival and by HEART after arrival. RESULTS: Of 96 HEART activations, 36 were from neonatal intensive care unit, 35 from pediatric and cardiac intensive care units, 14 from emergency department, and 11 from inpatient wards. 56 (62%) children had airway anomalies and 41/96 (43%) were invasively ventilated. Median HEART arrival time was 5 min (interquartile range, 3-5). 56/96 (58%) required insertion of an advanced airway (supra/extra-glottic airway, endotracheal tube, tracheostomy tube). HEART succeeded in establishing a definitive airway in 53/56 (94%). Adverse airway outcomes were more common before (56/96, 58%) versus after HEART arrival (28/96, 29%; absolute risk difference 29%; 95% confidence interval 16, 41%; p < .001). Oxygen desaturation occurred more frequently before (46/96, 48%) versus after HEART arrival (24/96, 25%; absolute risk difference 23%; 95% confidence interval 11, 35%; p = .02). Cardiac arrests were more common before (9/96, 9%) versus after HEART arrival (3/96, 3%). Multiple (≥3) intubation attempts were more frequent before (14/42, 33%) versus after HEART arrival (9/46, 20%; absolute risk difference -14%; 95% confidence interval -32, 5%; p = .15). CONCLUSIONS: A multidisciplinary emergency airway response team plays an important role in pediatric airway management outside of the operating room. Adverse airway outcomes were more frequent before compared to after HEART arrival.

The Current State of Combined Pediatric Anesthesiology-Critical Care Practice: A Survey of Dual-Trained Practitioners in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Combined practice in pediatric anesthesiology (PA) and pediatric critical care medicine (PCCM) was historically common but has declined markedly with time. The reasons for this temporal shift are unclear, but existing evidence suggests that length of training is a barrier to contemporary trainees. Among current practitioners, restriction in dual-specialty practice also occurs, for reasons that are unknown at present. We sought to describe the demographics of this population, investigate their perceptions about the field, and consider factors that lead to attrition. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, observational study of physicians in the United States with a combined practice in PA and PCCM. The survey was distributed electronically and anonymously to the distribution list of the Pediatric Anesthesia Leadership Council (PALC) of the Society for Pediatric Anesthesia (SPA), directing the recipients to forward the link to their faculty meeting our inclusion criteria. Attending-level respondents (n = 62) completed an anonymous, 40-question multidomain survey. RESULTS: Forty-seven men and 15 women, with a median age of 51, completed the survey. Major leadership positions are held by 44%, and 55% are externally funded investigators. A minority (26%) have given up one or both specialties, citing time constraints and politics as the dominant reasons. Duration of training was cited as the major barrier to entry by 77%. Increasing age and faculty rank and lack of a comparably trained institutional colleague were associated with attrition from dual-specialty practice. The majority (88%) reported that they would do it all again. CONCLUSIONS: The current cohort of pediatric anesthesiologist-intensivists in the United States is a small but accomplished group of physicians. Efforts to train, recruit, and retain such providers must address systematic barriers to completion of the requisite training and continued practice.

Two classes of active transcription sites and their roles in developmental regulation.

The expression of genes encoding powerful developmental regulators is exquisitely controlled, often at multiple levels. Here, we investigate developmental expression of three conserved genes, Caenorhabditis elegans mpk-1, lag-1, and lag-3/sel-8, which encode homologs of ERK/MAPK and core components of the Notch-dependent transcription complex, respectively. We use single-molecule FISH (smFISH) and MATLAB to visualize and quantify nuclear nascent transcripts and cytoplasmic mRNAs as a function of position along the germline developmental axis. Using differentially labeled probes, one spanning an exceptionally long first intron and the other spanning exons, we identify two classes of active transcription sites (ATS). The iATS class, for "incomplete" ATS, harbors only partial nascent transcripts; the cATS class, for "complete" ATS, harbors full-length nascent transcripts. Remarkably, the frequencies of iATS and cATS are patterned along the germline axis. For example, most mpk-1 ATS are iATS in hermaphrodite germline stem cells, but most are cATS in differentiating stem cell daughters. Thus, mpk-1 ATS class frequencies switch in a graded manner as stem cell daughters begin differentiation. Importantly, the patterns of ATS class frequency are gene-, stage-, and sex-specific, and cATS frequency strongly correlates with transcriptional output. Although the molecular mechanism underlying ATS classes is not understood, their primary difference is the extent of transcriptional progression. To generate only partial nascent transcripts in iATS, progression must be slowed, paused, or aborted midway through the gene. We propose that regulation of ATS class can be a critical mode of developmental gene regulation.

Pediatric Airway Management in COVID-19 Patients: Consensus Guidelines From the Society for Pediatric Anesthesia's Pediatric Difficult Intubation Collaborative and the Canadian Pediatric Anesthesia Society.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]) pandemic has challenged medical systems and clinicians globally to unforeseen levels. Rapid spread of COVID-19 has forced clinicians to care for patients with a highly contagious disease without evidence-based guidelines. Using a virtual modified nominal group technique, the Pediatric Difficult Intubation Collaborative (PeDI-C), which currently includes 35 hospitals from 6 countries, generated consensus guidelines on airway management in pediatric anesthesia based on expert opinion and early data about the disease. PeDI-C identified overarching goals during care, including minimizing aerosolized respiratory secretions, minimizing the number of clinicians in contact with a patient, and recognizing that undiagnosed asymptomatic patients may shed the virus and infect health care workers. Recommendations include administering anxiolytic medications, intravenous anesthetic inductions, tracheal intubation using video laryngoscopes and cuffed tracheal tubes, use of in-line suction catheters, and modifying workflow to recover patients from anesthesia in the operating room. Importantly, PeDI-C recommends that anesthesiologists consider using appropriate personal protective equipment when performing aerosol-generating medical procedures in asymptomatic children, in addition to known or suspected children with COVID-19. Airway procedures should be done in negative pressure rooms when available. Adequate time should be allowed for operating room cleaning and air filtration between surgical cases. Research using rigorous study designs is urgently needed to inform safe practices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Until further information is available, PeDI-C advises that clinicians consider these guidelines to enhance the safety of health care workers during airway management when performing aerosol-generating medical procedures. These guidelines have been endorsed by the Society for Pediatric Anesthesia and the Canadian Pediatric Anesthesia Society.

East/West Visiting Scholars in Pediatric Anesthesia Program (ViSiPAP): Developing tomorrow's pediatric anesthesia leaders.

Promoting and retaining junior faculty are major challenges for many medical schools. High clinical workloads often limit time for scholarly projects and academic development, especially in anesthesiology. To address this, we created the East/West Visiting Scholars in Pediatric Anesthesia Program (ViSiPAP). The program's goal is to help "jumpstart" academic careers by providing opportunities for national exposure and recognition through invited lectures and collaborative opportunities. East/West ViSiPAP benefits the participating scholars, the home and hosting anesthesia departments, and pediatric anesthesia fellowship training programs. By fostering a sense of well-being and inclusion in the pediatric anesthesia community, East/West ViSiPAP has the potential to increase job satisfaction, help faculty attain promotion, and reduce attrition. Faculty and trainees are exposed to new expertise and role models. Moreover, ViSiPAP provides opportunities for women and underrepresented in medicine faculty. This program can help develop today's junior faculty into tomorrow's leaders in pediatric anesthesia. We advocate for expanding the concept of ViSiPAP to other institutions in academic medicine.

Education News.

First responders need hands-on experience with pediatric airway management, but the impact of a learner program in the operating room (OR) is unknown. We developed, implemented, and evaluated a pediatric airway "rotator" (PAR) program for 8 multidisciplinary groups to obtain this experience. This quality improvement pilot was conducted in the pediatric ORs from November 2017 to January 2018. We surveyed learner group leaders and anesthesia teachers about their PAR airway management expectations and developed a universal set of prerequisites, objectives, and simulation experiences. Airway management skills were assessed in a group of PARs at baseline. During implementation, another group of PARs completed prerequisites and reviewed objectives before coming to the OR for simu-lation using an infant mannequin. Then they entered the OR for "live" airway management. A comparison of preintervention and postintervention skills suggested an improvement in performance for most airway management domains except laryngeal mask airway insertion, which stayed about the same, and intubation, which decreased in the postintervention group. In the postassessment surveys, the PARs indicated that the interventions were helpful to their learning, and the anesthesia teachers' responses indicated that the primary goals to improve PARs' preparedness, airway management, and communication skills were achieved.

Videolaryngoscopy versus Fiber-optic Intubation through a Supraglottic Airway in Children with a Difficult Airway: An Analysis from the Multicenter Pediatric Difficult Intubation Registry.

BACKGROUND: The success rates and related complications of various techniques for intubation in children with difficult airways remain unknown. The primary aim of this study is to compare the success rates of fiber-optic intubation via supraglottic airway to videolaryngoscopy in children with difficult airways. Our secondary aim is to compare the complication rates of these techniques. METHODS: Observational data were collected from 14 sites after management of difficult pediatric airways. Patient age, intubation technique, success per attempt, use of continuous ventilation, and complications were recorded for each case. First-attempt success and complications were compared in subjects managed with fiber-optic intubation via supraglottic airway and videolaryngoscopy. RESULTS: Fiber-optic intubation via supraglottic airway and videolaryngoscopy had similar first-attempt success rates (67 of 114, 59% vs. 404 of 786, 51%; odds ratio 1.35; 95% CI, 0.91 to 2.00; P = 0.16). In subjects less than 1 yr old, fiber-optic intubation via supraglottic airway was more successful on the first attempt than videolaryngoscopy (19 of 35, 54% vs. 79 of 220, 36%; odds ratio, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.04 to 4.31; P = 0.042). Complication rates were similar in the two groups (20 vs. 13%; P = 0.096). The incidence of hypoxemia was lower when continuous ventilation through the supraglottic airway was used throughout the fiber-optic intubation attempt. CONCLUSIONS: In this nonrandomized study, first-attempt success rates were similar for fiber-optic intubation via supraglottic airway and videolaryngoscopy. Fiber-optic intubation via supraglottic airway is associated with higher first-attempt success than videolaryngoscopy in infants with difficult airways. Continuous ventilation through the supraglottic airway during fiber-optic intubation attempts may lower the incidence of hypoxemia.

Reducing Unnecessary Postoperative Complete Blood Count Testing in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

CONTEXT: Complete blood count (CBC) testing commonly occurs to determine the need for blood transfusions after surgical procedures. Many clinicians believe postoperative CBCs are "routine." OBJECTIVE: To decrease unnecessary routine CBC testing in a low-risk cohort of postoperative patients in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia by 50% in 6 months. DESIGN: Quality-improvement study. Data from our institution regarding frequency of ordering laboratory studies and transfusion requirements were collected for prior quality-improvement work demonstrating the safety and feasibility of avoiding routine postoperative CBCs in this cohort. Baseline survey data were gathered from key stakeholders on attitudes about and utilization of routine postoperative laboratory testing. Patient and clinician data were shared with all PICU clinicians. Simple Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles involving education, audit, and feedback were put into place. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Percentage of postoperative patients receiving CBCs within 48 hours of PICU admission. Balancing measures were hemoglobin level below 8 g/dL in patients for whom CBCs were sent and blood transfusions up to 7 days postoperatively for any patients in this cohort. RESULTS: Sustained decreases below our 50% goal were seen after our interventions. There were no hemoglobin results below 8 g/dL or surgery-related blood transfusions in this cohort within 7 days of surgery. Estimated hospital charges related to routine postoperative CBCs decreased by 87% during 6 postintervention months. CONCLUSION: A simple approach to a systemic problem in the PICU of unnecessary laboratory testing is feasible and effective. By using local historical data, we were able to identify a cohort of patients for whom routine postoperative CBC testing is unnecessary.

Rapid Recovery Pathway After Spinal Fusion for Idiopathic Scoliosis.

BACKGROUND: Posterior spinal fusion (PSF) for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is associated with significant pain and prolonged hospitalization. There is evidence that early mobilization and multimodal analgesia can accelerate functional recovery and reduced length of stay (LOS). Using these principles, we implemented a quality improvement initiative to enable earlier functional recovery in our AIS-PSF population. METHODS: We designed and implemented a standardized rapid recovery pathway (RRP) with evidence-based management recommendations for children aged 10 to 21 years undergoing PSF for AIS. Our primary outcome, functional recovery, was assessed using statistical process control charts for LOS and average daily pain scores. Our process measures were medication adherence and order set utilization. The balancing measure was 30-day readmission rate. RESULTS: We included 322 patients from January 1, 2011 to June 30, 2015 with 134 (42%) serving as historical controls, 104 (32%) representing our transition population, and 84 (26%) serving as our RRP population. Baseline average LOS was 5.7 days and decreased to 4 days after RRP implementation. Average daily pain scores remained stable with improvement on postoperative day 0 (3.8 vs 4.9 days) and 1 (3.8 vs 5 days) after RRP implementation. In the second quarter of 2015, gabapentin (91%) and ketorolac (95%) use became routine and order set utilization was 100%. Readmission rates did not increase as a result of this pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a standardized RRP with multimodal pain management and early mobilization strategies resulted in reduced LOS without an increase in reported pain scores or readmissions.

Medication Reconciliation Improvement Through the Use of Video.

Accurate medication reconciliation at the time of hospital admission is vital to preventing adverse drug events. Compliance with medication reconciliation in our pediatric intensive care unit was low initially with overall medication reconciliation at 70%. Due to the high front line provider turnover in our unit, we focused on technological reminders for completion and used unique and innovative ways to motivate our supervising staff. Our goal was to reach >95% completion within 24 hours for medication reconciliation for all patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit. Pre-pilot discussions focused on examples of errors of medication reconciliation within our own institution resulting in patient harm via traditional power point presentation. The initial pilot phase instituted a job aid on how to add the medication reconciliation completion reminder column. Email updates on completion status began one week after initiation. During the implementation and spread phase, fun interactive videos were used to acknowledge roll out to the full unit. Compliance was monitored and humorous biweekly video updates emphasizing accountability were introduced. In the sustain phase, monthly video updates served as education and a reminder for provider staff. The use of a medication reconciliation completion column and reminder emails resulted in goal completion (>95%) by three weeks post intervention for the pilot unit. Overall medication reconciliation completion also reached goal of >95% completion within the entire unit after three weeks of implementation and spread. Compliance fell below goal so video updates were modified utilizing humor and emphasizing accountability. This resulted in sustained compliance now more than forty weeks post implementation. Unit compliance currently remains >95% completion within 24 hours now more than forty weeks post intervention. The use of the medication reconciliation reminder column resulted in improvement in compliance; however, that improvement was not sustained. The addition of humorous videos highlighting accountability allowed for sustained improvements.

Social dimensions of science-humanitarian collaboration: lessons from Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia.

This paper contains a critical exploration of the social dimensions of the science-humanitarian relationship. Drawing on literature on the social role of science and on the social dimensions of humanitarian practice, it analyses a science-humanitarian partnership for disaster risk reduction (DRR) in Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia, an area threatened by tsunamigenic earthquakes. The paper draws on findings from case study research that was conducted between 2010 and 2011. The case study illustrates the social processes that enabled and hindered collaboration between the two spheres, including the informal partnership of local people and scientists that led to the co-production of earthquake and tsunami DRR and limited organisational capacity and support in relation to knowledge exchange. The paper reflects on the implications of these findings for science-humanitarian partnering in general, and it assesses the value of using a social dimensions approach to understand scientific and humanitarian dialogue.