RESUMO
Bangladesh registered 1573828 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the death toll crossed the grim milestone of 27946 across the country as of 9th December, 2021. Despite the enforcement of stringent COVID-19 measures, including nationwide lockdowns, travel bans, tighter curbs on nonessential activities, and social distancing, the country witnessed an accelerated diffusion of coronavirus cases during the national events and festivals in 2020. The present study aims to examine the association between the national events / festivals and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 by looking at the instantaneous reproduction number, Rt, of the 64 districts in Bangladesh. We further illustrate the COVID-19 diffusion explicitly in Dhaka Division at the first phase of the pandemic. The comprehensive analysis shows an escalation of Rt value in Dhaka and in all industrialized cities during the major events such as, Garments reopening and religious holidays in Bangladesh. Based on the analysis, a set of array measurements has been also suggested to evade the future pandemic risks while running the national festival activities. HighlightsO_LIBangladesh confirmed 1573828 coronavirus cases and 27946 deaths due to the current COVID-19 outbreak. C_LIO_LICountry observed significant COVID-19 diffusion in its business hubs during national holidays. C_LIO_LIDhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is the epicenter of the ongoing pandemic. C_LIO_LICalculated Rt value illustrates its escalation in Dhaka and its neighboring cities at the time of national events. C_LIO_LIBangladesh Government needs to consider interdisciplinary approaches and contextual policies to contain the future pandemic during any national events. C_LI
RESUMO
As one of the most densely populated countries in the world, Bangladesh have been trying to contain the impact of a pandemic like COVID-19 since March, 2020. Although government announced an array of restricted measures to slow down the diffusion in the beginning of the pandemic, the lockdown has been lifted gradually by reopening all the industries, markets and offices with a notable exception of educational institutes. As the physical geography of Bangladesh is highly variable across the largest delta, the population of different regions and their lifestyle also differ in the country. Thus, to get the real scenario of the current pandemic across Bangladesh, it is essential to analyze the transmission dynamics over the individual districts. In this article, we propose to integrate the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) with classic SIRD model to explain the epidemic evolution of individual districts in the country. We show that UKF-SIRD model results in a robust prediction of the transmission dynamics for 1-4 months. Then we apply the robust UKF-SIRD model over different regions in Bangladesh to estimates the course of the epidemic. Our analysis demonstrate that in addition to the densely populated areas, industrial areas and popular tourist spots are in the risk of higher COVID-19 transmission. In the light of these outcomes, we provide a set of suggestions to contain the pandemic in Bangladesh. All the data and relevant codebase is available at https://mjonyh.github.io. HighlightsO_LIWe integrate the UKF with classic SIRD model for the better estimation of the COVID-19 diffusion of 64 districts in Bangladesh. C_LIO_LINationwide analysis show the strong correlation between population density and the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country. C_LIO_LIIndustrial zones and popular tourists spots are at greater risk of spreading the Coronavirus. C_LIO_LIWith the better assessment of the COVID-19 cases dynamics, the Government will find effective policies to contain the current pandemic. C_LI
