A clearer view of Southern Ocean air-sea interaction using surface heat flux asymmetry.

Progress in understanding Southern Ocean heat exchange and wind forcing is discussed and new results presented. These include a metric of the zonal asymmetry between surface ocean heat gain in the Atlantic/Indian sector and heat loss in the Pacific sector. The asymmetry arises from an intersector variation in the humidity gradient between the sea surface and near-surface atmosphere. This gradient increases by 60% in the Pacific sector enabling a 20 Wm-2 stronger latent heat loss compared with the Atlantic/Indian sector. The new metric is used for intercomparison of atmospheric reanalyses and CMIP6 climate simulations. CMIP6 has weaker Atlantic/Indian sector heat gain compared with the reanalyses primarily due to Indian Ocean sector differences. The potential for surface flux buoys to provide an observation-based counterpart to the asymmetry metric is explored. Over the past decade, flux buoys have been deployed at two sites (south of Tasmania and upstream of Drake Passage). The data record provided by these moorings is assessed and an argument developed for a third buoy to sample the Atlantic/Indian sector of the asymmetry metric. To close, we assess evidence that the main westerly wind belt has strengthened and moved southward in recent decades using the ERA5 reanalysis. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice-Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations.

A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere-only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice-driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979-2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa2 for Arctic-averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75-1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic.