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Nat Commun ; 12(1): 220, 2021 01 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33431866

RESUMO

Absent pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing, lock-downs and mobility restrictions remain our prime response in the face of epidemic outbreaks. To ease their potentially devastating socioeconomic consequences, we propose here an alternating quarantine strategy: at every instance, half of the population remains under lockdown while the other half continues to be active - maintaining a routine of weekly succession between activity and quarantine. This regime minimizes infectious interactions, as it allows only half of the population to interact for just half of the time. As a result it provides a dramatic reduction in transmission, comparable to that achieved by a population-wide lockdown, despite sustaining socioeconomic continuity at  ~50% capacity. The weekly alternations also help address the specific challenge of COVID-19, as their periodicity synchronizes with the natural SARS-CoV-2 disease time-scales, allowing to effectively isolate the majority of infected individuals precisely at the time of their peak infection.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/transmissão , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Distanciamento Físico , Rede Social , Fatores Socioeconômicos
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