Longitudinal prognosis of Parkinson's outcomes using causal connectivity.

Despite the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD), there are no clinically-accepted neuroimaging biomarkers to predict the trajectory of motor or cognitive decline or differentiate Parkinson's disease from atypical progressive parkinsonian diseases. Since abnormal connectivity in the motor circuit and basal ganglia have been previously shown as early markers of neurodegeneration, we hypothesize that patterns of interregional connectivity could be useful to form patient-specific predictive models of disease state and of PD progression. We use fMRI data from subjects with Multiple System Atrophy (MSA), Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP), idiopathic PD, and healthy controls to construct predictive models for motor and cognitive decline and differentiate between the four subgroups. Further, we identify the specific connections most informative for progression and diagnosis. When predicting the one-year progression in the MDS-UPDRS-III1* and Montreal Cognitive assessment (MoCA), we achieve new state-of-the-art mean absolute error performance. Additionally, the balanced accuracy we achieve in the diagnosis of PD, MSA, PSP, versus healthy controls surpasses that attained in most clinics, underscoring the relevance of the brain connectivity features. Our models reveal the connectivity between deep nuclei, motor regions, and the thalamus as the most important for prediction. Collectively these results demonstrate the potential of fMRI connectivity as a prognostic biomarker for PD and increase our understanding of this disease.

Novel machine learning approaches for improving the reproducibility and reliability of functional and effective connectivity from functional MRI.

Objective.New measures of human brain connectivity are needed to address gaps in the existing measures and facilitate the study of brain function, cognitive capacity, and identify early markers of human disease. Traditional approaches to measure functional connectivity (FC) between pairs of brain regions in functional MRI, such as correlation and partial correlation, fail to capture nonlinear aspects in the regional associations. We propose a new machine learning based measure of FC (ML.FC) which efficiently captures linear and nonlinear aspects.Approach.To capture directed information flow between brain regions, effective connectivity (EC) metrics, including dynamic causal modeling and structural equation modeling have been used. However, these methods are impractical to compute across the many regions of the whole brain. Therefore, we propose two new EC measures. The first, a machine learning based measure of effective connectivity (ML.EC), measures nonlinear aspects across the entire brain. The second, Structurally Projected Granger Causality (SP.GC) adapts Granger Causal connectivity to efficiently characterize and regularize the whole brain EC connectome to respect underlying biological structural connectivity. The proposed measures are compared to traditional measures in terms ofreproducibilityand theability to predict individual traitsin order to demonstrate these measures' internal validity. We use four repeat scans of the same individuals from the Human Connectome Project and measure the ability of the measures to predict individual subject physiologic and cognitive traits.Main results.The proposed new FC measure ofML.FCattains high reproducibility (mean intra-subjectR2of 0.44), while the proposed EC measure ofSP.GCattains the highest predictive power (meanR2across prediction tasks of 0.66).Significance.The proposed methods are highly suitable for achieving high reproducibility and predictiveness and demonstrate their strong potential for future neuroimaging studies.

Reproducible neuroimaging features for diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder with machine learning.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is the fourth most common neurodevelopmental disorder, with a prevalence of 1 in 160 children. Accurate diagnosis relies on experts, but such individuals are scarce. This has led to increasing interest in the development of machine learning (ML) models that can integrate neuroimaging features from functional and structural MRI (fMRI and sMRI) to help reveal central nervous system alterations characteristic of ASD. We optimized and compared the performance of 12 of the most popular and powerful ML models. Each was separately trained using 15 different combinations of fMRI and sMRI features and optimized with an unbiased model search. Deep learning models predicted ASD with the highest diagnostic accuracy and generalized well to other MRI datasets. Our model achieves state-of-the-art 80% area under the ROC curve (AUROC) in diagnosis on test data from the IMPAC dataset; and 86% and 79% AUROC on the external ABIDE I and ABIDE II datasets (with further improvement to 93% and 90% after supervised domain adaptation). The highest performing models identified reproducible putative biomarkers for accurate ASD diagnosis in accord with known ASD markers as well as novel cerebellar biomarkers. Such reproducibility lends credence to their tremendous potential for defining and using a set of truly generalizable ASD biomarkers that will advance scientific understanding of neuronal changes in ASD.

Patterns of Pretreatment Reward Task Brain Activation Predict Individual Antidepressant Response: Key Results From the EMBARC Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The lack of biomarkers to inform antidepressant selection is a key challenge in personalized depression treatment. This work identifies candidate biomarkers by building deep learning predictors of individual treatment outcomes using reward processing measures from functional magnetic resonance imaging, clinical assessments, and demographics. METHODS: Participants in the EMBARC (Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response in Clinical Care) study (n = 222) underwent reward processing task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and were randomized to 8 weeks of sertraline (n = 106) or placebo (n = 116). Subsequently, sertraline nonresponders (n = 37) switched to 8 weeks of bupropion. The change in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale was measured after treatment. Reward processing, clinical measurements, and demographics were used to train treatment-specific deep learning models. RESULTS: The predictive model for sertraline achieved R2 of 48% (95% CI, 33%-61%; p < 10-3) in predicting the change in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and number-needed-to-treat (NNT) of 4.86 participants in predicting response. The placebo model achieved R2 of 28% (95% CI, 15%-42%; p < 10-3) and NNT of 2.95 in predicting response. The bupropion model achieved R2 of 34% (95% CI, 10%-59%, p < 10-3) and NNT of 1.68 in predicting response. Brain regions where reward processing activity was predictive included the prefrontal cortex and cerebellar crus 1 for sertraline and the cingulate cortex, caudate, orbitofrontal cortex, and crus 1 for bupropion. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate the utility of reward processing measurements and deep learning to predict antidepressant outcomes and to form multimodal treatment biomarkers.

Predicting Parkinson's disease trajectory using clinical and neuroimaging baseline measures.

INTRODUCTION: Predictive biomarkers of Parkinson's Disease progression are needed to expedite neuroprotective treatment development and facilitate prognoses for patients. This work uses measures derived from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, including regional homogeneity (ReHo) and fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations (fALFF), to predict an individual's current and future severity over up to 4 years and to elucidate the most prognostic brain regions. METHODS: ReHo and fALFF are measured for 82 Parkinson's Disease subjects and used to train machine learning predictors of baseline clinical and future severity at 1 year, 2 years, and 4 years follow-up as measured by the Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS). Predictive performance is measured with nested cross-validation, validated on an external dataset, and again validated through leave-one-site-out cross-validation. Important predictive features are identified. RESULTS: The models explain up to 30.4% of the variance in current MDS-UPDRS scores, 55.8% of the variance in year 1 scores, and 47.1% of the variance in year 2 scores (p < 0.0001). For distinguishing high and low-severity individuals at each timepoint (MDS-UPDRS score above or below the median, respectively), the models achieve positive predictive values up to 79% and negative predictive values up to 80%. Higher ReHo and fALFF in several regions, including components of the default motor network, predicted lower severity across current and future timepoints. CONCLUSION: These results identify an accurate prognostic neuroimaging biomarker which may be used to better inform enrollment in trials of neuroprotective treatments and enable physicians to counsel their patients.

Anatomically-Informed Data Augmentation for Functional MRI with Applications to Deep Learning.

The application of deep learning to build accurate predictive models from functional neuroimaging data is often hindered by limited dataset sizes. Though data augmentation can help mitigate such training obstacles, most data augmentation methods have been developed for natural images as in computer vision tasks such as CIFAR, not for medical images. This work helps to fills in this gap by proposing a method for generating new functional Magnetic Resonance Images (fMRI) with realistic brain morphology. This method is tested on a challenging task of predicting antidepressant treatment response from pre-treatment task-based fMRI and demonstrates a 26% improvement in performance in predicting response using augmented images. This improvement compares favorably to state-of-the-art augmentation methods for natural images. Through an ablative test, augmentation is also shown to substantively improve performance when applied before hyperparameter optimization. These results suggest the optimal order of operations and support the role of data augmentation method for improving predictive performance in tasks using fMRI.

Improved motion correction for functional MRI using an omnibus regression model.

Head motion during functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging acquisition can significantly contaminate the neural signal and introduce spurious, distance-dependent changes in signal correlations. This can heavily confound studies of development, aging, and disease. Previous approaches to suppress head motion artifacts have involved sequential regression of nuisance covariates, but this has been shown to reintroduce artifacts. We propose a new motion correction pipeline using an omnibus regression model that avoids this problem by simultaneously regressing out multiple artifacts using the best performing algorithms to estimate each artifact. We quantitatively evaluate its motion artifact suppression performance against sequential regression pipelines using a large heterogeneous dataset (n=151) which includes high-motion subjects and multiple disease phenotypes. The proposed concatenated regression pipeline significantly reduces the association between head motion and functional connectivity while significantly outperforming the traditional sequential regression pipelines in eliminating distance-dependent head motion artifacts.

Architectural configurations, atlas granularity and functional connectivity with diagnostic value in Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Currently, the diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is dependent upon a subjective, time-consuming evaluation of behavioral tests by an expert clinician. Non-invasive functional MRI (fMRI) characterizes brain connectivity and may be used to inform diagnoses and democratize medicine. However, successful construction of predictive models, such as deep learning models, from fMRI requires addressing key choices about the model's architecture, including the number of layers and number of neurons per layer. Meanwhile, deriving functional connectivity (FC) features from fMRI requires choosing an atlas with an appropriate level of granularity. Once an accurate diagnostic model has been built, it is vital to determine which features are predictive of ASD and if similar features are learned across atlas granularity levels. Identifying new important features extends our understanding of the biological underpinnings of ASD, while identifying features that corroborate past findings and extend across atlas levels instills model confidence. To identify aptly suited architectural configurations, probability distributions of the configurations of high versus low performing models are compared. To determine the effect of atlas granularity, connectivity features are derived from atlases with 3 levels of granularity and important features are ranked with permutation feature importance. Results show the highest performing models use between 2-4 hidden layers and 16-64 neurons per layer, granularity dependent. Connectivity features identified as important across all 3 atlas granularity levels include FC to the supplementary motor gyrus and language association cortex, regions whose abnormal development are associated with deficits in social and sensory processing common in ASD. Importantly, the cerebellum, often not included in functional analyses, is also identified as a region whose abnormal connectivity is highly predictive of ASD. Results of this study identify important regions to include in future studies of ASD, help assist in the selection of network architectures, and help identify appropriate levels of granularity to facilitate the development of accurate diagnostic models of ASD.

Reconfiguring Motor Circuits for a Joint Manual and BCI Task.

Designing brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) that can be used in conjunction with ongoing motor behavior requires an understanding of how neural activity co-opted for brain control interacts with existing neural circuits. For example, BCIs may be used to regain lost motor function after stroke. This requires that neural activity controlling unaffected limbs is dissociated from activity controlling the BCI. In this study we investigated how primary motor cortex accomplishes simultaneous BCI control and motor control in a task that explicitly required both activities to be driven from the same brain region (i.e. a dual-control task). Single-unit activity was recorded from intracortical, multi-electrode arrays while a non-human primate performed this dual-control task. Compared to activity observed during naturalistic motor control, we found that both units used to drive the BCI directly (control units) and units that did not directly control the BCI (non-control units) significantly changed their tuning to wrist torque. Using a measure of effective connectivity, we observed that control units decrease their connectivity. Through an analysis of variance we found that the intrinsic variability of the control units has a significant effect on task proficiency. When this variance is accounted for, motor cortical activity is flexible enough to perform novel BCI tasks that require active decoupling of natural associations to wrist motion. This study provides insight into the neural activity that enables a dual-control brain-computer interface.

Predicting Response to the Antidepressant Bupropion using Pretreatment fMRI.

Major depressive disorder is a primary cause of disability in adults with a lifetime prevalence of 6-21% worldwide. While medical treatment may provide symptomatic relief, response to any given antidepressant is unpredictable and patient-specific. The standard of care requires a patient to sequentially test different antidepressants for 3 months each until an optimal treatment has been identified. For 30-40% of patients, no effective treatment is found after more than one year of this trial-and-error process, during which a patient may suffer loss of employment or marriage, undertreated symptoms, and suicidal ideation. This work develops a predictive model that may be used to expedite the treatment selection process by identifying for individual patients whether the patient will respond favorably to bupropion, a widely prescribed antidepressant, using only pretreatment imaging data. This is the first model to do so for individuals for bupropion. Specifically, a deep learning predictor is trained to estimate the 8-week change in Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAMD) score from pretreatment task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) obtained in a randomized controlled antidepressant trial. An unbiased neural architecture search is conducted over 800 distinct model architecture and brain parcellation combinations, and patterns of model hyperparameters yielding the highest prediction accuracy are revealed. The winning model identifies bupropion-treated subjects who will experience remission with the number of subjects needed-to-treat (NNT) to lower morbidity of only 3.2 subjects. It attains a substantially high neuroimaging study effect size explaining 26% of the variance (R2 = 0.26) and the model predicts post-treatment change in the 52-point HAMD score with an RMSE of 4.71. These results support the continued development of fMRI and deep learning-based predictors of response for additional depression treatments.

Sensitivity of derived clinical biomarkers to rs-fMRI preprocessing software versions.

When common software packages (CONN and SPM) are used to process fMRI, results such as functional connectivity measures can substantially differ depending on the versions of the packages used and the tools used to convert image formats such as DICOM to NIFTI. The significance of these differences are illustrated within the context of a realistic research application: finding moderators of antidepressant response from a large psychiatric study of 288 major depressive disorder (MDD) patients. Significant differences in functional connectivity measurements and discrepancies in derived moderators were found between nearly all software configurations. These results should encourage researchers to be vigilant of software versions during fMRI preprocessing, to maintain consistency throughout each project, and to carefully report versions to facilitate reproducibility.

Multiple Deep Learning Architectures Achieve Superior Performance Diagnosing Autism Spectrum Disorder Using Features Previously Extracted from Structural and Functional MRI.

The diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a subjective process requiring clinical expertise in neurodevelopmental disorders. Since such expertise is not available at many clinics, automated diagnosis using machine learning (ML) algorithms would be of great value to both clinicians and the imaging community to increase the diagnoses' availability and reproducibility while reducing subjectivity. This research systematically compares the performance of classifiers using over 900 subjects from the IMPAC database [1], using the database's derived anatomical and functional features to diagnose a subject as autistic or healthy. In total 12 classifiers are compared from 3 categories including: 6 nonlinear shallow ML models, 3 linear shallow models, and 3 deep learning models. When evaluated with an AUC ROC performance metric, results include: (1) amongst the shallow learning methods, linear models outperformed nonlinear models, agreeing with [2]. (2) Deep learning models outperformed shallow ML models. (3) The best model was a dense feedforward network, achieving 0.80 AUC which compares to the recently reported 0.79±0.01 AUC average of the top 10 methods from the IMPAC challenge [3]. These results demonstrate that even when using features derived from imaging data, deep learning methods can provide additional predictive accuracy over classical methods.