Country transition index based on hierarchical clustering to predict next COVID-19 waves.

COVID-19 has widely spread around the world, impacting the health systems of several countries in addition to the collateral damage that societies will face in the next years. Although the comparison between countries is essential for controlling this disease, the main challenge is the fact of countries are not simultaneously affected by the virus. Therefore, from the COVID-19 dataset by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, we present a temporal analysis on the number of new cases and deaths among countries using artificial intelligence. Our approach incrementally models the cases using a hierarchical clustering that emphasizes country transitions between infection groups over time. Then, one can compare the current situation of a country against others that have already faced previous waves. By using our approach, we designed a transition index to estimate the most probable countries' movements between infectious groups to predict next wave trends. We draw two important conclusions: (1) we show the historical infection path taken by specific countries and emphasize changing points that occur when countries move between clusters with small, medium, or large number of cases; (2) we estimate new waves for specific countries using the transition index.

Protein residue network analysis reveals fundamental properties of the human coagulation factor VIII.

Hemophilia A is an X-linked inherited blood coagulation disorder caused by the production and circulation of defective coagulation factor VIII protein. People living with this condition receive either prophylaxis or on-demand treatment, and approximately 30% of patients develop inhibitor antibodies, a serious complication that limits treatment options. Although previous studies performed targeted mutations to identify important residues of FVIII, a detailed understanding of the role of each amino acid and their neighboring residues is still lacking. Here, we addressed this issue by creating a residue interaction network (RIN) where the nodes are the FVIII residues, and two nodes are connected if their corresponding residues are in close proximity in the FVIII protein structure. We studied the characteristics of all residues in this network and found important properties related to disease severity, interaction to other proteins and structural stability. Importantly, we found that the RIN-derived properties were in close agreement with in vitro and clinical reports, corroborating the observation that the patterns derived from this detailed map of the FVIII protein architecture accurately capture the biological properties of FVIII.

Prediction of hemophilia A severity using a small-input machine-learning framework.

Hemophilia A is a relatively rare hereditary coagulation disorder caused by a defective F8 gene resulting in a dysfunctional Factor VIII protein (FVIII). This condition impairs the coagulation cascade, and if left untreated, it causes permanent joint damage and poses a risk of fatal intracranial hemorrhage in case of traumatic events. To develop prophylactic therapies with longer half-lives and that do not trigger the development of inhibitory antibodies, it is essential to have a deep understanding of the structure of the FVIII protein. In this study, we explored alternative ways of representing the FVIII protein structure and designed a machine-learning framework to improve the understanding of the relationship between the protein structure and the disease severity. We verified a close agreement between in silico, in vitro and clinical data. Finally, we predicted the severity of all possible mutations in the FVIII structure - including those not yet reported in the medical literature. We identified several hotspots in the FVIII structure where mutations are likely to induce detrimental effects to its activity. The combination of protein structure analysis and machine learning is a powerful approach to predict and understand the effects of mutations on the disease outcome.

Concept drift detection on social network data using cross-recurrence quantification analysis.

This paper presents our efforts to detect Concept Drifts (changes in data generation processes), using the Cross-Recurrence Quantification Analysis, on time series produced by social network systems. Experiments were performed on the TSViz project (http://www.tsviz.com.br), which collects online tweets associated with predefined hashtags and processes them to generate different time series: one to measure the amount of information contained in textual short messages and another to quantify the positiveness and negativeness of users' sentiments, etc. In that context, this work proposed and evaluated a Concept Drift approach to point out when generating processes change along time, indicating the detection of relevant textual changes in terms of the amount of information and sentiments. As a main contribution, results show that our approach indicates when the most important social events happen, which were confirmed by official news.