Supernova triggers for end-Devonian extinctions.

The Late Devonian was a protracted period of low speciation resulting in biodiversity decline, culminating in extinction events near the Devonian-Carboniferous boundary. Recent evidence indicates that the final extinction event may have coincided with a dramatic drop in stratospheric ozone, possibly due to a global temperature rise. Here we study an alternative possible cause for the postulated ozone drop: a nearby supernova explosion that could inflict damage by accelerating cosmic rays that can deliver ionizing radiation for up to [Formula: see text] ky. We therefore propose that the end-Devonian extinctions were triggered by supernova explosions at [Formula: see text], somewhat beyond the "kill distance" that would have precipitated a full mass extinction. Such nearby supernovae are likely due to core collapses of massive stars; these are concentrated in the thin Galactic disk where the Sun resides. Detecting either of the long-lived radioisotopes [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text] in one or more end-Devonian extinction strata would confirm a supernova origin, point to the core-collapse explosion of a massive star, and probe supernova nucleosynthesis. Other possible tests of the supernova hypothesis are discussed.

Hypothesis: Muon Radiation Dose and Marine Megafaunal Extinction at the End-Pliocene Supernova.

Considerable data and analysis support the detection of one or more supernovae (SNe) at a distance of about 50 pc, ∼2.6 million years ago. This is possibly related to the extinction event around that time and is a member of a series of explosions that formed the Local Bubble in the interstellar medium. We build on previous work, and propagate the muon flux from SN-initiated cosmic rays from the surface to the depths of the ocean. We find that the radiation dose from the muons will exceed the total present surface dose from all sources at depths up to 1 km and will persist for at least the lifetime of marine megafauna. It is reasonable to hypothesize that this increase in radiation load may have contributed to a newly documented marine megafaunal extinction at that time.

Terrestrial effects of moderately nearby supernovae.

Recent data indicate one or more moderately nearby supernovae in the Early Pleistocene, with additional events likely in the Miocene. This has motivated more detailed computations, using new information about the nature of supernovae and the distances of these events to describe in more detail the sorts of effects that are indicated at the Earth. This short communication/review is designed to describe some of these effects so that they may possibly be related to changes in the biota around these times.

A Possible Role for Stochastic Astrophysical Ionizing Radiation Events in the Systematic Disparity between Molecular and Fossil Dates.

Major discrepancies have been noted for some time between fossil ages and molecular divergence dates for a variety of taxa. Recently, systematic trends within avian clades have been uncovered. The trends show that the disparity is much larger for mitochondrial DNA than for nuclear DNA, also that it is larger for crown fossil dates than stem fossil dates. It has been argued that this pattern is largely inconsistent with incompleteness of the fossil record as the principal driver of the disparity. A case is presented that, given the expected mutations from a fluctuating background of astrophysical radiation from such sources as supernovae, the rate of molecular clocks is variable and should increase back to a few million years, before returning to the long-term average rate. This is a possible explanation for the disparity. One test of this hypothesis is to look for an acceleration of molecular clocks at 2 to 2.5 Ma due to one or more moderately nearby supernovae known to have happened at that time. Another is to look for reduced disparity in benthic organisms of the deep ocean. In addition, due to the importance of highly penetrating muon irradiation, the disparity should be magnified for megafauna. Key Words: Extreme events in Earth history-Molecular clock-Radiation physics-Evolution. Astrobiology 17, 87-90.

Astrophysical ionizing radiation and Earth: a brief review and census of intermittent intense sources.

Cosmic radiation backgrounds are a constraint on life, and their distribution will affect the Galactic Habitable Zone. Life on Earth has developed in the context of these backgrounds, and characterizing event rates will elaborate the important influences. This in turn can be a base for comparison with other potential life-bearing planets. In this review, we estimate the intensities and rates of occurrence of many kinds of strong radiation bursts by astrophysical entities, ranging from gamma-ray bursts at cosmological distances to the Sun itself. Many of these present potential hazards to the biosphere; on timescales long compared with human history, the probability of an event intense enough to disrupt life on the land surface or in the oceans becomes large. Both photons (e.g., X-rays) and high-energy protons and other nuclei (often called "cosmic rays") constitute hazards. For either species, one of the mechanisms that comes into play even at moderate intensities is the ionization of Earth's atmosphere, which leads through chemical changes (specifically, depletion of stratospheric ozone) to increased ultraviolet B flux from the Sun reaching the surface. UVB is extremely hazardous to most life due to its strong absorption by the genetic material DNA and subsequent breaking of chemical bonds. This often leads to mutation or cell death. It is easily lethal to the microorganisms that lie at the base of the food chain in the ocean. We enumerate the known sources of radiation and characterize their intensities at Earth and rates or upper limits on these quantities. When possible, we estimate a "lethal interval," our best estimate of how often a major extinction-level event is probable given the current state of knowledge; we base these estimates on computed or expected depletion of stratospheric ozone. In general, moderate-level events are dominated by the Sun, but the far more severe infrequent events are probably dominated by gamma-ray bursts and supernovae. We note for the first time that so-called "short-hard" gamma-ray bursts are a substantial threat, comparable in magnitude to supernovae and greater than that of the higher-luminosity long bursts considered in most past work. Given their precursors, short bursts may come with little or no warning.

Long-term cycles in the history of life: periodic biodiversity in the paleobiology database.

Time series analysis of fossil biodiversity of marine invertebrates in the Paleobiology Database (PBDB) shows a significant periodicity at approximately 63 My, in agreement with previous analyses based on the Sepkoski database. I discuss how this result did not appear in a previous analysis of the PBDB. The existence of the 63 My periodicity, despite very different treatment of systematic error in both PBDB and Sepkoski databases strongly argues for consideration of its reality in the fossil record. Cross-spectral analysis of the two datasets finds that a 62 My periodicity coincides in phase by 1.6 My, equivalent to better than the errors in either measurement. Consequently, the two data sets not only contain the same strong periodicity, but its peaks and valleys closely correspond in time. Two other spectral peaks appear in the PBDB analysis, but appear to be artifacts associated with detrending and with the increased interval length. Sampling-standardization procedures implemented by the PBDB collaboration suggest that the signal is not an artifact of sampling bias. Further work should focus on finding the cause of the 62 My periodicity.

Superluminous supernovae: no threat from eta Carinae.

Recently, Supernova 2006gy was noted as the most luminous ever recorded, with a total radiated energy of approximately 10(44) Joules. It was proposed that the progenitor may have been a massive evolved star similar to eta Carinae, which resides in our own Galaxy at a distance of about 2.3 kpc. eta Carinae appears ready to detonate. Although it is too distant to pose a serious threat as a normal supernova, and given that its rotation axis is unlikely to produce a gamma-ray burst oriented toward Earth, eta Carinae is about 30,000 times nearer than 2006gy, and we re-evaluate it as a potential superluminous supernova. We have found that, given the large ratio of emission in the optical to the X-ray, atmospheric effects are negligible. Ionization of the atmosphere and concomitant ozone depletion are unlikely to be important. Any cosmic ray effects should be spread out over approximately 10(4) y and similarly unlikely to produce any serious perturbation to the biosphere. We also discuss a new possible effect of supernovae-e-ndocrine disruption induced by blue light near the peak of the optical spectrum. This is a possibility for nearby supernovae at distances too large to be considered "dangerous" for other reasons. However, due to reddening and extinction by the interstellar medium, eta Carinae is unlikely to trigger such effects to any significant degree.

Considering the case for biodiversity cycles: re-examining the evidence for periodicity in the fossil record.

We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by, as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.