Gendered Parenthood-Employment Gaps from Midlife: A Demographic Perspective Across Three Different Welfare Systems.

Women's labor force participation has increased in Western countries, but gender gaps remain, especially among parents. Using a novel comparative perspective, we assess women's and men's employment trajectories from midlife onward by parity and education. We provide insights into the gendered parenthood-employment gaps examining the long-term implications of parenthood beyond the core childbearing ages by decomposing years lived between ages 40-74, in years of employment, joblessness, and retirement. Using multistate incidence-based life tables, we compare different cultural and institutional contexts: Finland, Italy, and the USA. Our results document large cross-national variation, with education playing a key role. In Finland, the number of years of employment increases with parity for women and men, and the gender gap is small; in the USA, the relationship between parity and years of employment is relatively flat, although a gender gap emerges among those with two or more children; in Italy, the number of years of employment decreases sharply for women as parity increases, while it increases for men. Notably, education has a similar positive impact on years of employment across all groups in Finland. In contrast, in the USA and Italy, the gender gap is only half as large among highly educated mothers as it is among low educated mothers. The employment trajectories of childless women and men differ greatly across countries.

Family ideals in an era of low fertility.

Taking stock of individuals' perceived family ideals is particularly important in the current moment given unprecedented fertility declines and the diversification of households in advanced industrial societies. Study participants in urban China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Italy, Spain, and Norway were asked to evaluate vignettes describing families whose characteristics vary on ten dimensions. In contrast to previous studies that focused on a single dimension, such as fertility ideals or gender roles, this holistic vignette approach identifies the relative importance of each dimension. Multilevel regression analysis reveals both expected and unexpected findings. Parenthood remains a positive ideal, but the number of children does not matter once other family dimensions are considered, a potentially important finding in light of conventional wisdom regarding the two-children ideal. When evaluating families with at least one child, respondents tend to positively evaluate more traditional arrangements, including valuing marriage relative to cohabitation and, particularly, divorce. Also, in addition to financial resources, good communication between immediate and extended family members, as well as maintaining respect in the larger community, are highly salient attributes of an ideal family. Notwithstanding some important cross-national differences, egalitarian gender roles and avoiding work-family conflict are also valued positively. Overall, even as the study reveals some notable variations between societies, respondents across countries identify similar components of an ideal family.

Does bribery increase maternal mortality? Evidence from 135 Sub-Saharan African regions.

About 295,000 women died globally during and following pregnancy and childbirth in 2017. Two-thirds of these deaths occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa. By linking individual and regional data from 135 regions in 17 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2002-2018 this study explores how bribery affects maternal mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results show that the percentage of people who had first-hand experience in bribery is significantly and positively associated with pregnancy related deaths. We find that a 10 p.p. increase in the prevalence of bribery is associated with up to 41 [95% CI: 10-73] additional deaths for every 1,000 pregnancy-related deaths. However, the healthcare system quality appears to be an important moderator. To reduce maternal mortality, policy makers should not only increase investments in healthcare, they need also to implement measures to combat corruption.

The association between COVID-19 policy responses and mental well-being: Evidence from 28 European countries.

This study assesses how the implementation and lifting of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), deployed by most governments, to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, were associated with individuals' mental well-being (MWB) across 28 European countries. This is done both for the general population and across key-groups. We analyze longitudinal data for 15,147 respondents from three waves of the Eurofound-"Living, Working and COVID-19" survey, covering the period April 2020-March 2021. MWB is measured by the WHO-5 index. Our evidence suggests that restriction on international travel, private gatherings, and contact tracing (workplace closures) were negatively (positively) associated with MWB by about, respectively, -0.63 [95% CI: -0.79 to -0.47], -0.24 [95% CI: -0.38 to -0.10], and -0.22 [95% CI: -0.36 to -0.08] (0.29 [95% CI: 0.11 to 0.48]) points. These results correspond to -3.9%, -1.5%, and -1.4% (+1.8%) changes compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, these findings mask important group-differences. Women compared to men fared worse under stay-at-home requirements, internal movement restrictions, private gatherings restrictions, public events cancellation, school closures, and workplace closures. Those residing with children below 12, compared to those who do not, fared worse under public events cancellation, school closures and workplace closures. Conversely, those living with children 12-17, compared to those who do not, fared better under internal movement restrictions and public events cancelling. Western-Europeans vis-à-vis Eastern-Europeans fared better under NPIs limiting their mobility and easing their debts, whereas they fared worse under health-related NPIs. This study provides timely evidence of the rise in inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic and offers strategies for mitigating them.

Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?

The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406.

What Tears Couples Apart: A Machine Learning Analysis of Union Dissolution in Germany.

This study contributes to the literature on union dissolution by adopting a machine learning (ML) approach, specifically Random Survival Forests (RSF). We used RSF to analyze data on 2,038 married or cohabiting couples who participated in the German Socio-Economic Panel Survey, and found that RSF had considerably better predictive accuracy than conventional regression models. The man's and the woman's life satisfaction and the woman's percentage of housework were the most important predictors of union dissolution; several other variables (e.g., woman's working hours, being married) also showed substantial predictive power. RSF was able to detect complex patterns of association, and some predictors examined in previous studies showed marginal or null predictive power. Finally, while we found that some personality traits were strongly predictive of union dissolution, no interactions between those traits were evident, possibly reflecting assortative mating by personality traits. From a methodological point of view, the study demonstrates the potential benefits of ML techniques for the analysis of union dissolution and for demographic research in general. Key features of ML include the ability to handle a large number of predictors, the automatic detection of nonlinearities and nonadditivities between predictors and the outcome, generally superior predictive accuracy, and robustness against multicollinearity.

A first glance into the black box of life satisfaction surrounding childbearing.

The vast majority of studies looking into the relationship between childbearing and subjective well-being use overall measures where respondents either report their general level of happiness or their life satisfaction, leaving substantial doubt about the underlying mechanisms. However, life satisfaction and happiness are intuitively multidimensional concepts, simply because there cannot be only one aspect that affects individuals' well-being. In this study, by considering seventeen specific life satisfaction domains, these features come out very clearly. Whereas all the domains considered matter for the overall life satisfaction, only three of them, namely satisfaction with leisure, health and satisfaction with the partnership, change dramatically surrounding childbearing events. Even though we cannot generalise (since these results stem from one particular panel survey, i.e., Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia data), it appears that the typical anticipation and post-child decrease of life satisfaction, so often found in existing studies, stems from changes in these three domains.

Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries.

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8.4%), and Portugal (-6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.

Trust and fertility in uncertain times.

Recent studies have shown higher uncertainty to be associated with fertility decline. This study considers the role of social trust as a coping mechanism when general uncertainty increases. We analyse the fertility data of Italian provinces from 2004 to 2013, thereby incorporating the period of economic recession, which unexpectedly and exogenously increased uncertainty across the population. We find a robust and significantly positive impact of social trust on fertility, which is stronger among younger age groups. Moreover, we find that the buffer effect of trust decreases with the level of public childcare provision, suggesting that low trust endowments may be counterbalanced through public policy.

How the internet increases modern contraception uptake: evidence from eight sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have the highest worldwide levels of unmet need for modern contraception. This has led to persistently high fertility rates in the region, rates which have had major adverse repercussions on the development potential there. Family planning programmes play a key role in improving the uptake of modern contraception, both by fostering women's health and by lowering their fertility. Increasing awareness of contraception benefits is a major component of such programmes. Here, we ask whether internet access can bridge the gap between women's need for modern contraception and women's uptake of the same. METHODS: We use a compendium of data for 125 242 women, aged 15-49, from the Demographic Health Survey, Akamai and International Communication Union data, covering eight SSA countries, for the period 2014-2019. We apply a Two-Stage Least Square model, using as instruments for individual internet exposure the distance to the main server in the country and whether the backbone network in the country has been connected to at least one submarine cable. RESULTS: Internet exposure, measured as women access the internet at least monthly (almost daily), is associated with a positive, 11.4% (95% CI 10.6% to 12.2%) (53.8% (95% CI 13.4% to 94.1%)), increase in modern contraception uptake. Education is an important moderator. Poorly educated women benefit the most from internet exposure. DISCUSSION: Internet exposure appears to have significantly increased the uptake of modern contraception among sub-Saharan women. The poorly educated appear particularly to benefit. There are two mechanisms at play: the internet increases women's knowledge of contraception; and, in parallel, fosters their empowerment.

The impact of gynecologists' conscientious objection on abortion access.

Although abortion in Italy is free of charge and legal in a broad set of circumstances, 71% of gynecologists are registered as conscientious objectors, i.e. they are exempted from performing abortions for reasons of religious or moral beliefs. To assess whether this practice limits abortion access, we analyze aggregate regional data on abortion and a dataset of over one million clinical records of single interventions performed between 2002 and 2016. Results, from both cross-regional panel data and microdata analysis, suggest that conscientious objection hampers abortion access at the local level, being a significant driver of a woman's decision of having an abortion out of the region of residence and leading to longer waiting times to have one. Conscientious objection appears to have a stronger impact on women living in lower-income regions or experiencing other forms of economic disadvantage.

Is the effect of job uncertainty on fertility intentions channeled by subjective well-being?

This article combines two apparently distinct strands of contemporary research on fertility: the literature on economic uncertainty and fertility; and the literature on subjective well-being and fertility. We advance the hypothesis that the impact of jobs with uncertain conditions on fertility intentions is channeled by an individual's level of subjective well-being, which captures also unmeasured amenities of the job, including prestige, work-life balance, or welfare provision. To offer evidence for this hypothesis, we apply techniques of mediation analysis to data from two rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS 2004 and 2010). Our analysis suggested that the effect of jobs with uncertain conditions on fertility intentions depends on the level of subjective well-being: the negative effect is found only when subjective well-being is relatively low (i.e. life satisfaction levels equal or below six). Detailed results show that parents and older individuals have lower fertility intentions than childless and younger individuals when they have a job with uncertain conditions and a consequent low subjective well-being. We also found that - while the economic crisis was underway in 2010 - it was especially the deterioration in men's position in the labor market that was associated with lower fertility plans.

Life satisfaction favors reproduction. The universal positive effect of life satisfaction on childbearing in contemporary low fertility countries.

Do people with higher life satisfaction have more children? Having children requires considerable energy and investment on the part of parents. However, even in countries where contraceptives are easily available and widely used, where having children is optional and most of time the result of an intended action, parenthood has not gone "out of fashion". This paper tests the hypothesis that higher life satisfaction fosters reproductive behavior. We argue that people satisfied with their overall life feel better prepared to start the monumental task of childrearing. If, it is suggested, life satisfaction facilitates fertility, then this positive link should be observable in contemporary low fertility societies. The hypothesis is tested by taking overall life satisfaction as a determinant of fertility behavior using long longitudinal data available for developed countries: namely for Australia, Germany, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We find that higher levels of subjective well-being are, indeed, associated with a higher probability of having children in all the countries considered. We, therefore, conclude that life satisfaction favors reproduction, at least in low fertility societies.

The time benefits of young adult home stayers in France and Italy: a new perspective on the transition to adulthood?

This article analyses how two co-residing generations contribute to the housework workload in Italy and France during the early 2000s. It studies the intergenerational exchange of time between young adults and their parents by indirectly comparing the level of domestic comfort enjoyed by young people in the two closely neighbouring countries. A focus on the reasons for staying in the parental home provides an explanation for the tendency of young Italian adults to prolong their stay in the family nest. The results of time-use surveys suggest that young Italians (especially young men) may benefit more than their French counterparts in co-residing with their parents. Beyond the compositional or structural effects, they perform fewer domestic tasks than their French counterparts, a result that is related to different cultural practices.

Fertility and Life Satisfaction in Rural Ethiopia.

Despite recent strong interest in the link between fertility and subjective well-being, the focus has centered on developed countries. For poorer countries, in contrast, the relationship remains rather elusive. Using a well-established panel survey-the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS)-we investigate the empirical relationship between fertility and life satisfaction in rural Ethiopia, the largest landlocked country in Africa. Consistent with the fertility theories for developing countries and with the sociodemographic characteristics of rural Ethiopia, we hypothesize that this relationship varies by gender and across life stages, being more positive for men and for parents in old age. Indeed, our results suggest that older men benefit the most in terms of life satisfaction from having a large number of children, while the recent birth of a child is detrimental for the subjective well-being of women at reproductive ages. We address endogeneity issues by using lagged life satisfaction in ordinary least squares regressions, through fixed-effects estimation and the use of instrumental variables.

The Parenthood Happiness Puzzle: An Introduction to Special Issue.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, recent studies argue that parenthood is not necessarily related to higher parental subjective well-being (SWB). However, parenthood remains an important aspect of adults' lives, also in highly developed societies where childbearing has become optional, financially expensive and affecting other goals in life. Whereas a great deal of effort has been put into answering why fertility is low in so many developed countries, one may even ask why is it not even lower. The answer is not obvious but stems from the fact that, to date, the relationship between fertility and SWB has been understudied and the mechanisms at work are not well understood. This special issue makes a step forward in this line of research, providing a coherent set of papers addressing different dimensions of the relationship between fertility and SWB and its mechanisms, starting from a demographic perspective, but integrating theories and research results from other disciplines. The collection of papers assesses the effect of the birth of a child on the individual SWB from angles still unexplored with the idea that the effects of fertility on individuals' SWB are diverse depending on individual, couple and country contextual factors.

Work-Family Conflict Moderates the Relationship Between Childbearing and Subjective Well-Being.

Many empirical studies find that parents are not as happy as non-parents or that parenthood exerts a negative effect on subjective well-being (SWB). We add to these findings by arguing that there is a key moderating factor that has been overlooked in previous research, i.e. the level of work-family conflict. We hypothesize that the birth of a child means an increase in the level of work-family tension, which may be substantial for some parents and relatively weak for others. To outline such an approach, we estimate fixed-effects models using panel data from the Household, Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia survey. We find that childbearing negatively affects SWB only when parents, mothers in particular, face a substantial work-family conflict, providing thus support for our hypothesis.

Fertility intentions and outcomes: Implementing the Theory of Planned Behavior with graphical models.

This paper studies fertility intentions and their outcomes, analyzing the complete path leading to fertility behavior according to the social psychological model of Theory Planned Behavior (TPB). We move beyond existing research using graphical models to have a precise understanding, and a formal description, of the developmental fertility decision-making process. Our findings yield new results for the Italian case which are empirically robust and theoretically coherent, adding important insights to the effectiveness of the TPB for fertility research. In line with TPB, all intentions' primary antecedents are found to be determinants of the level of fertility intentions, but do not affect fertility outcomes, being pre-filtered by fertility intentions. Nevertheless, in contrast with TPB, background factors are not fully mediated by intentions' primary antecedents, influencing directly fertility intentions and even fertility behaviors.