Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. METHODS: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. RESULTS: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. CONCLUSION: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil

ABSTRACT Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.

Comparison of Neutralizing Dengue Virus B Cell Epitopes and Protective T Cell Epitopes With Those in Three Main Dengue Virus Vaccines.

The four serotypes of Dengue virus (DENV1-4) are arboviruses (arthropod-borne viruses) that belong to the Flavivirus genus, Flaviviridae family. They are the causative agents of an infectious disease called dengue, an important global public health problem with significant social-economic impact. Thus, the development of safe and effective dengue vaccines is a priority according to the World Health Organization. Only one anti-dengue vaccine has already been licensed in endemic countries and two formulations are under phase III clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to compare the main anti-dengue virus vaccines, DENGVAXIA®, LAV-TDV, and TAK-003, regarding their antigens and potential to protect. We studied the conservation of both, B and T cell epitopes involved in immunological control of DENV infection along with vaccine viruses and viral isolates. In addition, we assessed the population coverage of epitope sets contained in each vaccine formulation with regard to different human populations. As main results, we found that all three vaccines contain the main B cell epitopes involved in viral neutralization. Similarly, LAV-TDV and TAK-003 contain most of T cell epitopes involved in immunological protection, a finding not observed in DENGVAXIA®, which explains main limitations of the only licensed dengue vaccine. In summary, the levels of presence and absence of epitopes that are target for protective immune response in the three main anti-dengue virus vaccines are shown in this study. Our results suggest that investing in vaccines that contain the majority of epitopes involved in protective immunity (cellular and humoral arms) is an important issue to be considered.

Comparison of neutralizing dengue virus B cell epitopes and protective T cell epitopes with those in three main dengue virus vaccines

The four serotypes of Dengue virus (DENV1-4) are arboviruses (arthropod-borne viruses) that belong to the Flavivirus genus, Flaviviridae family. They are the causative agents of an infectious disease called dengue, an important global public health problem with significant social-economic impact. Thus, the development of safe and effective dengue vaccines is a priority according to the World Health Organization. Only one anti-dengue vaccine has already been licensed in endemic countries and two formulations are under phase III clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to compare the main anti-dengue virus vaccines, DENGVAXIA®, LAV-TDV, and TAK-003, regarding their antigens and potential to protect. We studied the conservation of both, B and T cell epitopes involved in immunological control of DENV infection along with vaccine viruses and viral isolates. In addition, we assessed the population coverage of epitope sets contained in each vaccine formulation with regard to different human populations. As main results, we found that all three vaccines contain the main B cell epitopes involved in viral neutralization. Similarly, LAV-TDV and TAK-003 contain most of T cell epitopes involved in immunological protection, a finding not observed in DENGVAXIA®, which explains main limitations of the only licensed dengue vaccine. In summary, the levels of presence and absence of epitopes that are target for protective immune response in the three main anti-dengue virus vaccines are shown in this study. Our results suggest that investing in vaccines that contain the majority of epitopes involved in protective immunity (cellular and humoral arms) is an important issue to be considered.

Anti-dengue Vaccines: From Development to Clinical Trials.

Dengue Virus (DENV) is an arbovirus (arthropod-borne virus). Four serotypes of DENV are responsible for the infectious disease called dengue that annually affects nearly 400 million people worldwide. Although there is only one vaccine formulation licensed for use in humans, there are other vaccine formulations under development that apply different strategies. In this review, we present information about anti-dengue vaccine formulations regarding development, pre-clinical tests, and clinical trials. The improvement in vaccine development against dengue is much needed, but it should be considered that the correlate of protection is still uncertain. Neutralizing antibodies have been proposed as a correlate of protection, but this ignores the key role of T-cell mediated immunity in controlling DENV infection. It is important to confirm the accurate correlate of protection against DENV infection, and also to have other anti-dengue vaccine formulations licensed for use.