Fifteen-year mortality and prognostic factors in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy: persistent standardized application of drug therapy and strengthened management may bring about encouraging change in an aging society.

BACKGROUND: There is scarce data on the long-term mortality and associated prognostic factors in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). The study aimed to investigate the all-cause mortality up to 15 years (mean 7.9 ± 5.7 years) in such patients, and the independent prognostic factors influencing their long-term mortality. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-six consecutive patients with DCM were prospectively enrolled from 2002 to 2003. The mean age of patients was 59.5 ± 10.4 years, and approximately 57% were male. They were followed up by telephone or outpatient visit at least every three months until 2019 or all-cause death occurred. Predictors of mortality were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: During the 15 years of follow-up, five patients were lost to follow-up, and the complete data records of 161 patients were included in the analysis. Patients were treated with angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin-receptor blocker (ARB), ß-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA), diuretics and digitalis from 2002 to 2004, and maintained at the maximum tolerated doses between 2004 and 2019. Our safety targets to maintain heart rate and blood pressure at 60-80 beats/min and 90-120/60-80 mmHg, respectively. All-cause mortality in the first five years was 55.9%. The independent risk factors for the 5-year mortality were age ≥ 70 years old (OR = 5.45, P = 0.006), systolic blood pressure (SBP) > 120 mmHg (OR = 3.63, P = 0.004), 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) < 450 m (OR = 3.84, P = 0.001). 15-year all-cause mortality was 65.8%. The independent risk factors for 15-year mortality were age ≥ 70 years old (OR = 16.07, P = 0.009), LVEF ≤ 35% (OR = 5.69, P = 0.003), and SBP > 120 mmHg (OR = 9.56, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study was the first to demonstrate the 15-year survival rate of 34% in DCM patients. The DCM patients' first five-year all-cause mortality decreased significantly after continuous standardized treatment and intensive management. The mortality then plateaued in the following 10 years. Age ≥ 70 years, LVEF ≤ 35%, and SBP > 120 mmHg were independent predictors of 15-year all-cause mortality.

The association between orthostatic blood pressure changes and subclinical target organ damage in subjects over 60 years old.

BACKGROUND: Although recent studies have indicated that both orthostatic hypotension and orthostatic hypertension independently predict cardiovascular events, the underlying mechanisms are still controversial. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationships between orthostatic changes and organ damage in subjects over 60 years old. METHODS: This is a prospective observational cohort study. One thousand nine hundred and ninety-seven subjects over 60 years old were enrolled. Participants were grouped according to whether they had a drop ≥ 20 mmHg in systolic or ≥ 10 mmHg in diastolic BP (orthostatic hypotension), an increase in mean orthostatic systolic blood pressure ≥ 20 mm Hg (orthostatic hypertension), or normal changes within 3 min of orthostatism. Multiple regression modeling was used to investigate the relationship between orthostatic hypotension, orthostatic hypertension and subclinical organ damage with adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: Orthostatic hypotension and orthostatic hypertension were found in 461 (23.1%) and 189 (9.5%) participants, respectively. Measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), clearance of creatinine, and microalbuminuria were associated with orthostatic hypotension; measurement of IMT and baPWV were associated with orthostatic hypertension in a cruse model. After adjustment, IMT [odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI) per one-SD increment: 1.385, 1.052-1.823; P = 0.02], baPWV (OR = 1.627, 95% CI: 1.041-2.544; P = 0.033) and microalbuminuria (OR = 1.401, 95% CI: 1.002-1.958; P = 0.049) were still associated with orthostatic hypotension, while orthostatic hypertension was only associated with IMT (OR = 1.730, 95% CI: 1.143-2.618; P = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Orthostatic hypotension seems to be independently correlated with increased carotid atherosclerosis, arterial stiffness and renal damage in subjects over 60 years old. Orthostatic hypertension correlates with carotid atherosclerosis only.

A severity index study of long-term prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure.

AIMS: The present study describes the derivation and validation of the Chronic Heart Failure Severity Index (CHFSI). MAIN METHODS: The CHFSI was derived using data obtained from a single-center prospective cohort study (2000-2014) that enrolled 756 patients. Logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and quality of life over a 15-year follow-up period. KEY FINDINGS: The score was validated at the first 5-year (n = 644), second 5-year (n = 364), and third 5-year (n = 262). Independent predictors of mortality were older age (OR = 2.04, P < 0.001), etiology score (OR = 2.61, P < 0.001), faster heart rate (OR = 1.46, P = 0.027), higher systolic blood pressure (OR = 2.35, P < 0.001), and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% (OR = 1.97, P = 0.018). The derived CHFSI predicted the mortality, and the AUC for the logistic model was 0.78 (95% confidence interval = 0.74-0.81, P < 0.001). Based on the logistic model, an integer scoring system was derived. Patients were classified into three groups: low risk (0-7 points), intermediate risk (8-11 points) and high risk (≥12 points) groups. The cumulative mortality for 15 years was 45.5% (125/275), 84.0% (204/243), and 100% (99/99), respectively (P < 0.001). The 6-min walk test revealed a significant difference in quality of life among patients in the low, medium and high risk groups (all, P < 0.0001). SIGNIFICANCE: The CHFSI is a very useful clinical predictive tool that identifies patients at risk of future mortality and their quality of life across healthcare systems.