Clinging to the top: natal dispersal tracks climate gradient in a trailing-edge population of a migratory songbird.

PURPOSE: Trailing-edge populations at the low-latitude, receding edge of a shifting range face high extinction risk from climate change unless they are able to track optimal environmental conditions through dispersal. METHODS: We fit dispersal models to the locations of 3165 individually-marked black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina, USA from 2002 to 2023. Black-throated blue warbler breeding abundance in this population has remained relatively stable at colder and wetter areas at higher elevations but has declined at warmer and drier areas at lower elevations. RESULTS: Median dispersal distance of young warblers was 917 m (range 23-3200 m), and dispersal tended to be directed away from warm and dry locations. In contrast, adults exhibited strong site fidelity between breeding seasons and rarely dispersed more than 100 m (range 10-1300 m). Consequently, adult dispersal kernels were much more compact and symmetric than natal dispersal kernels, suggesting adult dispersal is unlikely a driving force of declines in this population. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that directional natal dispersal may mitigate fitness costs for trailing-edge populations by allowing individuals to track changing climate and avoid warming conditions at warm-edge range boundaries.

An experimental test of the Allee effect range limitation hypothesis.

Understanding how climate change impacts trailing-edge populations requires information about how abiotic and biotic factors limit their distributions. Theory indicates that socially mediated Allee effects can limit species distributions by suppressing growth rates of peripheral populations when social information is scarce. The goal of our research was to determine if socially mediated Allee effects limit the distribution of Canada warbler Cardellina canadensis at the trailing-edge of the geographic range. Using 4 years of observational data from 71 sites and experimental data at 10 sites, we tested two predictions of the socially mediated range limitation hypothesis: (a) local growth rates should be positively correlated with local density and (b) the addition of social cues immediately outside the trailing-edge range boundary would result in colonization of formerly unoccupied habitat and increased growth rates. During the third breeding season, social cues were experimentally added at 10 formerly unoccupied sites within and beyond the species' local range margin to determine if the addition of social information could increase density and effectively expand the species' range. No experimental sites were colonized after adding social cues and no evidence of Allee effects was found. Rather, temperature, precipitation and negative density dependence strongly influenced population growth rates. Although theoretical models indicate that the presence of socially mediated Allee effects at species range boundaries could increase the rate of climate-induced range shifts and local extinctions, empirical results from the first test of this hypothesis suggest that Allee effects play a minimal role in limiting species' distributions.