Communicating demographic trends.

PIP: The remarks reported were originally directed to an audience of graduate students from developing countries studying population policy communications. The goal of communicating to policymakers is to place research results in a context of policy or program decision in a specific time and place. Important surveys are conducted and results need to be communicated to policymakers, i.e., the Demographic and Health Survey, the Contraceptive Prevalence surveys, and the World Fertility Survey. It is important to know who the audience is, what the issues are, the key policy players, the major concerns and views of key policymakers, the message, the channel for communication, and the method of evaluation of success in communicating the message. Newspapers and mass media are useful sources. Oversimplification or unsubstantiated positions will backfire. The standard is for technical scrutiny and understandability by a nontechnical audience. Judgment in selecting appropriate facts is essential. In explaining a complex relationship between education and fertility in a hypothetical study while at the same reporting the conclusion that more money needs to be spent on education leaves the reader confused. Be wary of reporting unsubstantiated recommendations. Demography sometimes can only provide the underpinnings even on such central issues as the role population growth and the damage to the environment. It could be that environmental resources are being poorly managed which is exacerbated by population growth. Slowing population growth may not change the outcome, but may minimize it. The context can be provided with a demographic perspective.^ieng

Demographic momentum. International population assistance should be a continued priority during the 1990s.

PIP: Commentary is provided on the rationale for population assistance, as well as about whether rapid population growth continues to threaten development and whether there is evidence that slower population growth has benefited countries. 1) The nature of the effect of population pressure on the environment in developing countries is considered separate from the damage caused by developed countries. One problem is seen as "quick fixes" used by farmers rather than use of appropriate technology and management for longterm growth in output. Immediate solutions to increasing output lead to soil erosion, salinization and silting from excess irrigation, deforestation, and pesticide resistant insects. Adverse effects of rapid growth are seen in achieving objectives in education, health, urban infrastructure, and employment creation. Population growth is a contributing or aggravating effect rather than an immediate cause. Public administration, which is frequently poorly managed, is unable to move fast enough to just maintain existing levels of services and infrastructure. Slower growth gives some leeway in beginning to institute economic and social reform. 2) The effectiveness of population assistance is also addressed. The availability of safe and effective contraception is a common element in fertility decline and accelerates the onset and rapidity of fertility decline. There are a variety of other forces that change the shape of reproductive behavior. a by-product of safe and effective contraception is the measure of control women are given over their lives. Employment opportunities for women are also possible in family planning programs and beneficial. Population donors have contributed to innovative research efforts, computer utilization, and information dissemination. The effort is cost effective and works. 3) The reasons for sustaining population assistance are discussed: demographic momentum, the existing policies and available program knowledge, and the timeliness. Although the needs for population assistance have changed over 29 years, there is still a need to give population the highest priority due to its impact on economic development. Maintaining the present levels and exceeding those levels are crucial for the 1990s. 9-10 billion dollars is an estimate of need.^ieng

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PIP: This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.^ieng

Demographics: people and markets.

PIP: The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.^ieng

Population pressures in Latin America.

PIP: In 1950 Latin America's population of 165 million was on a par with the 166 million of North America. 2 decades of growth at nearly 3% a year pushed the total to 405 million in 1985, vs. 264 million in North America. Despite substantial fertility declines since the 1960s, continued growth is ensured by the demographic momentum built into the region's large and youthful population bases. UN medium projections put the 2025 total at 779 million, compared to 345 million in North America. This Bulletin examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II and their links to economic and social changes in the region as well as their implications for international and social relations. The post World War II population surge was accompanied by massive rural-ruban and international migration, rapid urbanization, large labor shifts out of agriculture into industry and services, increased education for both men and women, and higher labor force participation for females. The rural exodus was spurred by extreme land tenure inequalities and the urban bias of postwar industrialization. The labor-saving bias of this industrialization forced exploding city populations to turn to the informal sector for jobs. Population pressures on city services and housing as well as jobs have been further exacerbated by overconcentration in a few large cities and economic downturns of the 1980s. Recent fertility declines seem to be the result of both increased access to family planning and the economic and social pressures posed by the gap between young adults' aspirations and their ability to realize them. Population and economic pressures could induce faster fertility declines than now projected but in the short run are likely to mean more employment problems, continued rapid urban growth, and even larger international immigration flows within the hemisphere, particularly to the US.^ieng

World population in transition.

PIP: The world's population growth rate peaked at slightly over 2%/year in the late 1960s and in 1986 is down to 1.7% and falling. Annual numbers added continue to rise because these rates apply to a very large base, 4.9 billion in 1986. According to UN medium variant projections, world population growth will peak at 89 million/year in the late 1990s and then taper off until world population stabilizes in the late decade of the 21st century at about 10.2 billion. Close to 95% of this growth is occurring in less developed countries (LDCs) of Africa, Asia (minus Japan), and Latin America. LDC fertility rates are declining, except in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America and South Asia, but most have far to go to reach the replacement level of 2.1 births/woman. Fertility is below replacement in virtually all more developed countries. For LDCs, large numbers will be added before stabilization even after attainment of replacement level fertility because of the demographic momentum built into their large and young population bases. This complicates efforts to bridge gaps between living standards in LDCs and industrialized countries. From a new debate about whether rapid population growth deters or stimulates economic growth, a more integrated view has emerged. This view recognizes the complementary relationship between efforts to slow population growth and other development efforts; e.g., to improve health and education, upgrade women's status, increase productivity. Most effective in the increased contraceptive prevalence and fertility declines seen in many LDCs has been the combination of organized programs to increase access to family planning information and supplies with socioeconomic development that enhances the desire for smaller families.^ieng

Land availability and rural fertility in Northeastern Brazil.

PIP: The relation between land and demographic factors in 2 regions of Brazil--the Northeast and the Amazon--are examined. The Northeast is Brazil's poorest region, with a tradition of export oriented plantation agriculture combined with subsistence farming. For the last 3 decades, it has experienced a high rate of natural increase relative to its capacity to absorb additional population. The Amazon, Brazil's last remaining agricultural frontier, has been the target of several recent government incentive programs and other initiatives aimed at increasing utilization, including the Trans-Amazon Highway. The analysis uses data that have been assembled from published tables in Brazil's 1970 population and agricultural censuses and from unpublished tables made available by the country's Census Bureau. The tables provide information on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the rural population for 106 microregions in 8 Brazilian states selected from the 2 regions. In terms of the variability in indices of the number of children ever born, their survival, school attendance, and farm labor participation, the range in the Northeast and the Amazon is at least as great as that found in the rural Southeast. The significance of differences, however, varies in several important respects. The evidence of the Southeast suggested a pattern of incipient fertility decline relating to conscious individual fertility control, i.e., a response to factors associated with increased costs of raising children. In the Northeast and the Amazon, the links between land availability, land tenure patterns, and fertility are related to supply factors. No evidence exists that fertility differences in these regions are determined by conscious individual reproductive choices. Thus the observed number of children for rural married women aged 30-34 represent the maximum number that they could have within existing limits on their capacity to reproduce. This number could be less than, equal to, or possibly greater than the number that they desire, but in the absence of control, it is supply and not demand that is identified by this number. Thus the analysis of observed fertility focuses on the impact of land availability, tenure, and literacy on supply. The analysis shows that the direct effects are balanced or offset by indirect effects through mediating variables. That supply rather than demand conditions are more influential in the number of children does not imply that other aspects of the rural households' demographic behavior related to demand factors are inoperative for investment in child quality. In the case of schooling and child labor, the behavior of rural households exhibits patterns that are consistent with demand theory.^ieng

Fertility and land availability in rural Brazil.

Differences between the marital fertility of the agricultural frontier and that of the more settled rural areas of southern Brazil are analyzed in this paper. Fertility rates derived from 1970 census data appear to decrease as the degree of settlement increases, suggesting an experience parallel to the decline in U.S. rural fertility in the late nineteenth century, which Easterlin and others have attributed to increased scarcity of land for starting new farm households. Multivariate analysis of the Brazilian data shows parallels between the two situations but also reveals that the importance of literacy, child survival, and access to land is relatively greater than that of the availability of land for explaining fertility differentials in Brazil.

Interregional differences in fertility in Brazil, 1950-1970.

Trends and interregional differences in the birth rate in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined. Estimates are based on data from the 1950 and 1970 censuses. Regional differences in birth measures (crude and general rates) were found to widen between 1950 and 1970 despite a decline in fertility at the national level and a narrowing of regional differences in important socioeconomicvariables like income and urbanization, The substantial interregional migration flows which occurred in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined for their possible impact on differentials. The effects are mixed, but the conclusion is that migration contributed to widening differences.