Fall incidents in nursing home residents: development of a predictive clinical rule (FINDER).

OBJECTIVES: To develop (part I) and validate (part II) an electronic fall risk clinical rule (CR) to identify nursing home residents (NH-residents) at risk for a fall incident. DESIGN: Observational, retrospective case-control study. SETTING: Nursing homes. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1668 (824 in part I, 844 in part II) NH-residents from the Netherlands were included. Data of participants from part I were excluded in part II. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Development and validation of a fall risk CR in NH-residents. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the fall risk-variables in part I. With these, three CRs were developed (ie, at the day of the fall incident and 3 days and 5 days prior to the fall incident). The overall prediction quality of the CRs were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC), and a cut-off value was determined for the predicted risk ensuring a sensitivity ≥0.85. Finally, one CR was chosen and validated in part II using a new retrospective data set. RESULTS: Eleven fall risk-variables were identified in part I. The AUROCs of the three CRs form part I were similar: the AUROC for models I, II and III were 0.714 (95% CI: 0.679 to 0.748), 0.715 (95% CI: 0.680 to 0.750) and 0.709 (95% CI: 0.674 to 0.744), respectively. Model III (ie, 5 days prior to the fall incident) was chosen for validation in part II. The validated AUROC of the CR, obtained in part II, was 0.603 (95% CI: 0.565 to 0.641) with a sensitivity of 83.41% (95% CI: 79.44% to 86.76%) and a specificity of 27.25% (95% CI 23.11% to 31.81%). CONCLUSION: Medication data and resident characteristics alone are not sufficient enough to develop a successful CR with a high sensitivity and specificity to predict fall risk in NH-residents. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not available.

Validation of an automated delirium prediction model (DElirium MOdel (DEMO)): an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Delirium is an underdiagnosed, severe and costly disorder, and 30%-40% of cases can be prevented. A fully automated model to predict delirium (DEMO) in older people has been developed, and the objective of this study is to validate the model in a hospital setting. SETTING: Secondary care, one hospital with two locations. DESIGN: Observational study. PARTICIPANTS: The study included 450 randomly selected patients over 60 years of age admitted to Zuyderland Medical Centre. Patients who presented with delirium on admission were excluded. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Development of delirium through chart review. RESULTS: A total of 383 patients were included in this study. The analysis was performed for delirium within 1, 3 and 5 days after a DEMO score was obtained. Sensitivity was 87.1% (95% CI 0.756 to 0.939), 84.2% (95% CI 0.732 to 0.915) and 82.7% (95% CI 0.734 to 0.893) for 1, 3 and 5 days, respectively, after obtaining the DEMO score. Specificity was 77.9% (95% CI 0.729 to 0.882), 81.5% (95% CI 0.766 to 0.856) and 84.5% (95% CI 0.797 to 0.884) for 1, 3 and 5 days, respectively, after obtaining the DEMO score. CONCLUSION: DEMO is a satisfactory prediction model but needs further prospective validation with in-person delirium confirmation. In the future, DEMO will be applied in clinical practice so that physicians will be aware of when a patient is at an increased risk of developing delirium, which will facilitate earlier recognition and diagnosis, and thus will allow the implementation of prevention measures.

Supporting clinical rules engine in the adjustment of medication (SCREAM): protocol of a multicentre, prospective, randomised study.

BACKGROUND: In the nursing home population, it is estimated that 1 in every 3 patients is polymedicated and given their considerable frailty, these patients are especially prone to adverse drug reactions. Clinical pharmacist-led medication reviews are considered successful interventions to improve medication safety in the inpatient setting. Due to the limited available evidence concerning the benefits of medication reviews performed in the nursing home setting, we propose a study aiming to demonstrate a positive effect that a clinical decision support system, as a health care intervention, may have on the target population. The primary objective of this study is to reduce the number of patients with at least one event when using the clinical decision support system compared to the regular care. These events consist of hospital referrals, delirium, falls, and/or deaths. METHOD/DESIGN: This study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised study with a cluster group design. The randomisation will be per main nursing home physician and stratified per ward (somatic and psychogeriatric). In the intervention group the clinical decision support system will be used to screen medication list, laboratory values and medical history in order to obtain potential clinical relevant remarks. The remarks will be sent to the main physician and feedback will be provided whether the advice was followed or not. In the control group regular care will be applied. DISCUSSION: We strongly believe that by using a clinical decision support system, medication reviews are performed in a standardised way which leads to comparable results between patients. In addition, using a clinical decision support system eliminates the time factor to perform medication reviews as the major problems related to medication, laboratory values, indications and/or established patient characteristics will be directly available. In this way, and in order to make the medication review process complete, consultation within healthcare professionals and/or the patient itself will be time effective and the medication surveillance could be performed around the clock. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Netherlands National Trial Register NTR5165 . Registered 2nd April 2015.

The support of medication reviews in hospitalised patients using a clinical decision support system.

OBJECTIVES: First, to estimate the added value of a clinical decision support system (CDSS) in the performance of medication reviews in hospitalised elderly. Second, to identify the limitations of the current CDSS by analysing generated drug-related problems (DRPs). METHODS: Medication reviews were performed in patients admitted to the geriatric ward of the Zuyderland medical centre. Additionally, electronically available patient information was introduced into a CDSS. The DRP notifications generated by the CDSS were compared with those found in the medication review. The DRP notifications were analysed to learn how to improve the CDSS. RESULTS: A total of 223 DRP strategies were identified during the medication reviews. The CDSS generated 70 clinically relevant DRP notifications. Of these DRP notifications, 63 % (44) were also found during the medication reviews. The CDSS generated 10 % (26) new DRP notifications and conveyed 28 % (70) of all 249 clinically relevant DRPs that were found. Classification of the CDSS generated DRP notifications related to 'medication error type' revealed that 'contraindications/interactions/side effects' and 'indication without medication' were the main categories not identified during the manual medication review. The error types 'medication without indication', 'double medication', and 'wrong medication' were mostly not identified by the CDSS. CONCLUSIONS: The CDSS used in this study is not yet sufficiently advanced to replace the manual medication review, though it does add value to the manual medication review. The strengths and weaknesses of the current CDSS can be determined according to the medication error types.

The development of an automated ward independent delirium risk prediction model.

Background A delirium is common in hospital settings resulting in increased mortality and costs. Prevention of a delirium is clearly preferred over treatment. A delirium risk prediction model can be helpful to identify patients at risk of a delirium, allowing the start of preventive treatment. Current risk prediction models rely on manual calculation of the individual patient risk. Objective The aim of this study was to develop an automated ward independent delirium riskprediction model. To show that such a model can be constructed exclusively from electronically available risk factors and thereby implemented into a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to optimally support the physician to initiate preventive treatment. Setting A Dutch teaching hospital. Methods A retrospective cohort study in which patients, 60 years or older, were selected when admitted to the hospital, with no delirium diagnosis when presenting, or during the first day of admission. We used logistic regression analysis to develop a delirium predictive model out of the electronically available predictive variables. Main outcome measure A delirium risk prediction model. Results A delirium risk prediction model was developed using predictive variables that were significant in the univariable regression analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the "medication model" model was 0.76 after internal validation. Conclusions CDSSs can be used to automatically predict the risk of a delirium in individual hospitalised patients' by exclusively using electronically available predictive variables. To increase the use and improve the quality of predictive models, clinical risk factors should be documented ready for automated use.

To what extent is clinical and laboratory information used to perform medication reviews in the nursing home setting? the CLEAR study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate to what extent laboratory data, actual medication, medical history, and/or drug indication influence the quality of medication reviews for nursing home patients. METHODS: Forty-six health care professionals from different fields were requested to perform medication reviews for three different cases. Per case, the amount of information provided varied in three subsequent stages: stage 1, medication list only; stage 2, adding laboratory data and reason for hospital admission; and stage 3, adding medical history/drug indication. Following a slightly modified Delphi method, a multidisciplinary team performed the medication review for each case and stage. The results of these medication reviews were used as reference reviews (gold standard). The remarks from the participants were scored, according to their potential clinical impact, from relevant to harmful on a scale of 3 to -1. A total score per case and stage was calculated and expressed as a percentage of the total score from the expert panel for the same case and stage. RESULTS: The overall mean percentage over all cases, stages, and groups was 37.0% when compared with the reference reviews. For one of the cases, the average score decreased significantly from 40.0% in stage 1, to 30.9% in stage 2, and 27.9% in stage 3; no significant differences between stages was found for the other cases. CONCLUSION: The low performance, against the gold standard, of medication reviews found in the present study highlights that information is incorrectly used or wrongly interpreted, irrespective of the available information. Performing medication reviews without using the available information in an optimal way can have potential implications for patient safety.

Evaluation of clinical rules in a standalone pharmacy based clinical decision support system for hospitalized and nursing home patients.

OBJECTIVES: To improve the current standalone pharmacy clinical decision support system (CDSS) by identifying and quantifying the benefits and limitations of the system. METHODS: Alerts and handling of the executed clinical rules were extracted from the CDSS from the period September 2011 to December 2011. The number of executed clinical rule alerts, number of actions on alerts, and the reason why alerts were classified as not relevant were analyzed. The alerts where considered clinically relevant when the pharmacist needed to contact the physician. RESULTS: The 4065 alerts have been separated into: 1137 (28.0%) new alerts, 2797 (68.8%) repeat alerts and 131 (3.2%) double alerts. When the alerts were analyzed, only 3.6% were considered clinically relevant. Reasons why alerts were considered as not to be relevant were: (a) the dosage was correct or already adjusted, (b) the drug was (temporarily) stopped and (c) the monitored laboratory value or drug dosage had already reverted to be within the reference limits. The reasons for no action were linked to three categorical limitations of the used system: 'algorithm alert criteria', 'CDSS optimization', and 'data delivery'. CONCLUSION: This study highlighted a number of ways in which the CDSS could be improved. These different aspects have been identified as important for developing an efficient CDSS.

Development of a computer system to support medication reviews in nursing homes.

The frail elderly populations of nursing homes frequently use drugs and suffer from considerable comorbidities. Medication reviews are intended to support evidence based prescribing and optimise therapy. However, literature is still ambiguous regarding the optimal method and the effects of medication reviews. Innovative computerised systems may support the medication reviews in the future. We are developing a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that, independently of the prescribing software, continuously monitors all prescribed drugs while taking into account co-medication, laboratory-data and co-morbidities. The CDSS will be developed in five phases: (1) development of the computerised system, (2) development of the clinical rules, (3) validation of the CDSS, (4) randomised controlled trial, and (5) feasibility for implementation in different nursing homes. The clinical decision support system aims at supporting the traditional medication review.