Development and testing of a lymphoma clinical trial-specific frailty index: a secondary analysis of the NCIC-CTG LY.12 clinical trial.

The prevalence of frailty in clinical trials of lymphoma is unknown. We conducted a secondary analysis of the phase III LY.12 trial in which patients with relapsed aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma were randomized to different salvage regimens before autologous stem cell transplant. The primary objective was to construct a lymphoma clinical trials-specific frailty index (LyFI) using previously described methods. The secondary objective was to describe the association of frailty withover all and event-free survival (OS, EFS). The LyFI was constructed using 619 patients, and11% (N = 70) were classified as frail. Frailty was associated with EFS (HR 1.94, 95%CI 1.53-2.46) and OS (HR 2.01, 95%CI 1.57-2.58) in univariable analysis, but was only significant as a continuous (not binary) variable in multivariable analysis controlling for prognostic score, suggesting limitations of a FI in this trial population. Future work could validate the FI using clinical assessments and/or apply it to an older trial population.

Integration of child life into adult oncology: A mixed-methods feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer in a loved one can have negative effects on child health and development. Child Life Specialists (CLSs) specialize in assisting children understand and cope with difficult medical scenarios but are generally not available in adult care facilities to support the needs of patient-families with minor children. We conducted a mixed-methods study of the implementation of a pilot CLS program at a tertiary oncology centre. METHODS: We collected administrative and clinical data on referred families; encounter data; and patient-reported questionnaire data before and 2 months after engagement with the program. RESULTS: Over the initial 10 months, 98 families were referred, 91 of whom engaged through a total of 257 clinical encounters. The cancer patient in the family was most commonly a woman with a mean age of 45 years and in the role of mother. Breast cancer was the most common diagnosis (24%) and 78% of patients had stage IV disease. Most families had >1 child at home, and children were most commonly school-aged (5-14y). Phone and Hospital/Clinic visits accounted for the largest portion of CLS time. Interventions ranged from diagnosis education through to bereavement support. Most cancer patients indicated that the program was helpful to them and their families. There were trends of moderate improvements on patient reported outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our study was able to provide an understanding of the initial CLS program operations to guide program development and future study. Such a program holds promise as an important aspect of adult oncology family-centered care.

Patient and Provider Attitudes and Preferences Regarding Early Palliative Care Delivery for Patients with Advanced Gastrointestinal Cancers: A Prospective Survey.

Early integrated palliative care (EIPC) for patients with advanced cancers requires the involvement of family doctors (FDs) and oncologists. We compared attitudes between patients and their providers regarding the delivery of EIPC. Patients with newly diagnosed incurable gastrointestinal (GI) cancer at a tertiary cancer centre in Ontario, Canada, were surveyed using a study-specific instrument regarding the importance of and preferences for accessing support across eight domains of palliative care. Physicians within the circle of care completed a parallel survey for each patient. The concordance between patient and physician responses was analyzed. A total of 66 patients were surveyed (median age 69, 35% female). All had an oncologist, 12% had a specialist palliative care provider (SPC), and 97% had an FD, but only 41% listed the FD as part of the care team. In total, 95 providers responded (oncologist = 68, FD = 21, SPC = 6; response rate 92%; 1-3 physician responses per patient). Disease management and physical concerns were most important to patients. Patients preferred to access care in these domains from oncologists or SPCs. For all other domains, most patients attributed primary responsibility to self or family rather than any healthcare provider. Thus, concordance was poor between patient and physician responses. Across most domains of palliative care, we found low agreement between cancer patients and their physicians regarding responsibilities for care, with FDs appearing to have limited involvement at this stage.

Reproductive Ageing: Current insights and a potential role of NAD in the reproductive health of aging fathers and their children.

In brief: In light of the increasing age of first-time fathers, this article summarizes the current scientific knowledge base on reproductive aging in the male, including sperm quality and health impacts for the offspring. The emerging role of NAD decline in reproductive aging is highlighted. Abstract: Over the past decades, the age of first-time fathers has been steadily increasing due to socio-economic pressures. While general mechanisms of aging are subject to intensive research, male reproductive aging has remained an understudied area, and the effects of increased age on the male reproductive system are still only poorly understood, despite new insights into the potential dire consequences of advanced paternal age for the health of their progeny. There is also growing evidence that reproductive aging is linked to overall health in men, but this review mainly focuses on pathophysiological consequences of old age in men, such as low sperm count and diminished sperm genetic integrity, with an emphasis on mechanisms underlying reproductive aging. The steady decline of NAD levels observed in aging men represents one of the emerging concepts in that regard. Because it offers some mechanistic rationale explaining the effects of old age on the male reproductive system, some of the NAD-dependent functions in male reproduction are briefly outlined in this review. The overview also provides many questions that remain open about the basic science of male reproductive aging.

Health-related quality of life in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma: a longitudinal analysis of the ABVD arm in the randomized controlled trial HD.6.

Early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma has become one of the most curable hematologic malignancies. Depending upon the disease location, possible toxicities, and patient preference, chemotherapy alone with ABVD remains an accepted treatment modality for this disease. There remains a paucity of data regarding the longitudinal trajectory of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients treated for HL. The impact of disease and treatment on HRQoL is increasingly important to understand as the number of long-term survivors increases. We report the longitudinal HRQoL using data prospectively collected from diagnosis up to 10 years post-treatment in the ABVD arm of the HD.6 randomized controlled trial for early-stage HL patients (N=169). We analyzed HRQoL using the EORTC QLQ-C30 collected at baseline, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months after completion of chemotherapy and yearly up to year 10. Clinically and statistically significant improvements were noted for specific domains including emotional (3 months post-treatment), social (12 months post-treatment) and financial functioning (2 years post-treatment), and the specific symptom of fatigue (6 months post-treatment) during the follow-up period. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective, longitudinal analysis of HRQoL specifically among patients with early-stage HL treated with ABVD therapy alone. Although improvements were noted, sustained clinically and statistically significant improvements were noted only in select symptoms emphasizing the need to better understand and optimize HRQoL among this patient group.

Beyond Pellagra-Research Models and Strategies Addressing the Enduring Clinical Relevance of NAD Deficiency in Aging and Disease.

Research into the functions of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) has intensified in recent years due to the insight that abnormally low levels of NAD are involved in many human pathologies including metabolic disorders, neurodegeneration, reproductive dysfunction, cancer, and aging. Consequently, the development and validation of novel NAD-boosting strategies has been of central interest, along with the development of models that accurately represent the complexity of human NAD dynamics and deficiency levels. In this review, we discuss pioneering research and show how modern researchers have long since moved past believing that pellagra is the overt and most dramatic clinical presentation of NAD deficiency. The current research is centered on common human health conditions associated with moderate, but clinically relevant, NAD deficiency. In vitro and in vivo research models that have been developed specifically to study NAD deficiency are reviewed here, along with emerging strategies to increase the intracellular NAD concentrations.

Endogenous metabolism in endothelial and immune cells generates most of the tissue vitamin B3 (nicotinamide).

In mammals, nicotinamide (NAM) is the primary NAD precursor available in circulation, a signaling molecule, and a precursor for methyl-nicotinamide (M-NAM) synthesis. However, our knowledge about how the body regulates tissue NAM levels is still limited. Here we demonstrate that dietary vitamin B3 partially regulates plasma NAM and NAM-derived metabolites, but not their tissue levels. We found that NAD de novo synthesis from tryptophan contributes to plasma and tissue NAM, likely by providing substrates for NAD-degrading enzymes. We also demonstrate that tissue NAM is mainly generated by endogenous metabolism and that the NADase CD38 is the main enzyme that produces tissue NAM. Tissue-specific CD38-floxed mice revealed that CD38 activity on endothelial and immune cells is the major contributor to tissue steady-state levels of NAM in tissues like spleen and heart. Our findings uncover the presence of different pools of NAM in the body and a central role for CD38 in regulating tissue NAM levels.

Low NAD+ Levels Are Associated With a Decline of Spermatogenesis in Transgenic ANDY and Aging Mice.

Advanced paternal age has increasingly been recognized as a risk factor for male fertility and progeny health. While underlying causes are not well understood, aging is associated with a continuous decline of blood and tissue NAD+ levels, as well as a decline of testicular functions. The important basic question to what extent ageing-related NAD+ decline is functionally linked to decreased male fertility has been difficult to address due to the pleiotropic effects of aging, and the lack of a suitable animal model in which NAD+ levels can be lowered experimentally in chronologically young adult males. We therefore developed a transgenic mouse model of acquired niacin dependency (ANDY), in which NAD+ levels can be experimentally lowered using a niacin-deficient, chemically defined diet. Using ANDY mice, this report demonstrates for the first time that decreasing body-wide NAD+ levels in young adult mice, including in the testes, to levels that match or exceed the natural NAD+ decline observed in old mice, results in the disruption of spermatogenesis with small testis sizes and reduced sperm counts. ANDY mice are dependent on dietary vitamin B3 (niacin) for NAD+ synthesis, similar to humans. NAD+-deficiency the animals develop on a niacin-free diet is reversed by niacin supplementation. Providing niacin to NAD+-depleted ANDY mice fully rescued spermatogenesis and restored normal testis weight in the animals. The results suggest that NAD+ is important for proper spermatogenesis and that its declining levels during aging are functionally linked to declining spermatogenesis and male fertility. Functions of NAD+ in retinoic acid synthesis, which is an essential testicular signaling pathway regulating spermatogonial proliferation and differentiation, may offer a plausible mechanism for the hypospermatogenesis observed in NAD+-deficient mice.

Targeting PARP11 to avert immunosuppression and improve CAR T therapy in solid tumors.

Evasion of antitumor immunity and resistance to therapies in solid tumors are aided by an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment (TME). We found that TME factors, such as regulatory T cells and adenosine, downregulated type I interferon receptor IFNAR1 on CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). These events relied upon poly-ADP ribose polymerase-11 (PARP11), which was induced in intratumoral CTLs and acted as a key regulator of the immunosuppressive TME. Ablation of PARP11 prevented loss of IFNAR1, increased CTL tumoricidal activity and inhibited tumor growth in an IFNAR1-dependent manner. Accordingly, genetic or pharmacologic inactivation of PARP11 augmented the therapeutic benefits of chimeric antigen receptor T cells. Chimeric antigen receptor CTLs engineered to inactivate PARP11 demonstrated a superior efficacy against solid tumors. These findings highlight the role of PARP11 in the immunosuppressive TME and provide a proof of principle for targeting this pathway to optimize immune therapies.

Post-discharge after surgery Virtual Care with Remote Automated Monitoring-1 (PVC-RAM-1) technology versus standard care: randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if virtual care with remote automated monitoring (RAM) technology versus standard care increases days alive at home among adults discharged after non-elective surgery during the covid-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Multicentre randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 8 acute care hospitals in Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 905 adults (≥40 years) who resided in areas with mobile phone coverage and were to be discharged from hospital after non-elective surgery were randomised either to virtual care and RAM (n=451) or to standard care (n=454). 903 participants (99.8%) completed the 31 day follow-up. INTERVENTION: Participants in the experimental group received a tablet computer and RAM technology that measured blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, temperature, and body weight. For 30 days the participants took daily biophysical measurements and photographs of their wound and interacted with nurses virtually. Participants in the standard care group received post-hospital discharge management according to the centre's usual care. Patients, healthcare providers, and data collectors were aware of patients' group allocations. Outcome adjudicators were blinded to group allocation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was days alive at home during 31 days of follow-up. The 12 secondary outcomes included acute hospital care, detection and correction of drug errors, and pain at 7, 15, and 30 days after randomisation. RESULTS: All 905 participants (mean age 63.1 years) were analysed in the groups to which they were randomised. Days alive at home during 31 days of follow-up were 29.7 in the virtual care group and 29.5 in the standard care group: relative risk 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.02); absolute difference 0.2% (95% confidence interval -0.5% to 0.9%). 99 participants (22.0%) in the virtual care group and 124 (27.3%) in the standard care group required acute hospital care: relative risk 0.80 (0.64 to 1.01); absolute difference 5.3% (-0.3% to 10.9%). More participants in the virtual care group than standard care group had a drug error detected (134 (29.7%) v 25 (5.5%); absolute difference 24.2%, 19.5% to 28.9%) and a drug error corrected (absolute difference 24.4%, 19.9% to 28.9%). Fewer participants in the virtual care group than standard care group reported pain at 7, 15, and 30 days after randomisation: absolute differences 13.9% (7.4% to 20.4%), 11.9% (5.1% to 18.7%), and 9.6% (2.9% to 16.3%), respectively. Beneficial effects proved substantially larger in centres with a higher rate of care escalation. CONCLUSION: Virtual care with RAM shows promise in improving outcomes important to patients and to optimal health system function. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04344665.

Evaluating the Indirect Costs of Care Associated with Salvage Chemotherapy for Relapsed and Refractory Aggressive-Histology Lymphoma: A Subset Analysis of the Canadian Cancer Trials Group (CCTG) LY.12 Clinical Trial.

We conducted an analysis of indirect costs alongside the LY.12 randomized trial in patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Lost productivity data for Canadian patients and caregivers in the trial were collected at baseline and with each chemotherapy cycle pre-transplant, using an adapted Lost Productivity questionnaire. Mean per patient indirect costs were CAD 2999 for patients in the GDP arm and CAD 3400 in the DHAP arm. A substantial majority was not working or had to reduce their workload during this treatment time. Salvage chemotherapy for R/R aggressive NHL is associated with significant indirect costs to patients and their caregivers.

A Canadian Prospective Study of Linkage of Randomized Clinical Trial to Cancer and Mortality Registry Data.

In a prospective study, we sought to determine acceptability of linkage of administrative and clinical trial data among Canadian patients and Research Ethics Boards (REBs). The goal is to develop a more harmonized approach to data, with potential to improve clinical trial conduct through enhanced data quality collected at reduced cost and inconvenience for patients. On completion of the original LY.12 randomized clinical trial in lymphoma (NCT00078949), participants were invited to enrol in the Long-term Innovative Follow-up Extension (LIFE) component. Those consenting to do so provided comprehensive identifying information to facilitate linkage with their administrative data. We prospectively designed a global assessment of this innovative approach to clinical trial follow-up including rates of REB approval and patient consent. The pre-specified benchmark for patient acceptability was 80%. Of 16 REBs who reviewed the research protocol, 14 (89%) provided approval; two in Quebec declined due to small patient numbers. Of 140 patients invited to participate, 115 (82%, 95% CI 76 to 88%) from across 9 Canadian provinces provided consent and their full name, date of birth, health insurance number and postal code to facilitate linkage with their administrative data for long-term follow-up. Linkage of clinical trial and administrative data is feasible and acceptable. Further collaborative work including many stakeholders is required to develop an optimized secure approach to research. A more coordinated national approach to health data could facilitate more rapid testing and identification of new effective treatments across multiple jurisdictions and diseases from diabetes to COVID-19.

Metabolism in Male Reproductive Aging.

Similar to female reproductive health, male reproductive health declines with increasing age, albeit in a more gradual way. In the US, the average age of first-time fathers has been steadily increasing since 1980. This is concerning because increasing paternal age is positively correlated with reduced sperm chromatin quality and higher numbers of DNA strand breaks (DNA sb), which negatively affects pregnancy outcome and child development. While underlying reasons are not well understood, one of the well-known hallmarks of aging is a significant decline of body nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) levels. We propose that low body-wide NAD levels provide a plausible explanation for metabolic alterations that are associated with declining hormonal production and testicular volume, as well as reduced sperm quality in aging men.

The conditional survival analysis of relapsed DLBCL after autologous transplant: a subgroup analysis of LY.12 and CORAL.

The conditional survival of patients after frontline therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) approaches that of the general population once patients have survived disease free for 2 years. We sought to determine the conditional survival of patients among patients with relapsed de novo DLBCL successfully undergoing an autologous stem-cell transplant (ASCT) after first relapse. A total of 478 patients with de novo DLBCL, relapsed after 1 treatment from the Collaborative Trial in Relapsed Aggressive Lymphoma (CORAL) and LY.12, were included. Patients were followed prospectively after ASCT for a median of 5.3 and 8.2 years, respectively. Individual patient data were analyzed for event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated using French and Canadian life tables. The EFS estimates declined with each year of follow-up after ASCT and were 50.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 43.7% to 56.3%) and 43.4% (95% CI: 36.7% to 49.9%) at 5 years in CORAL and LY.12, respectively. The rate of death stabilized once patients achieved at least 4 years of EFS. Compared with the age- and sex-matched population, the SMR was significantly higher until 5 years after ASCT, when values were no longer statistically significant. Patients undergoing ASCT for relapsed DLBCL continue to have a higher rate of death at least until they have survived event free for 5 years. These observations can help to determine endpoints for future clinical trials in this population and for patient counseling. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00078949.

In vitro effects of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors on the production of tumor necrosis factor-α by interferon- γ - and lipopolysaccharide-stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells of horses.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate effects of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP1) inhibitors on the production of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) by interferon-γ (IFN-γ)- and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of horses as an in vitro model of inflammation in horses. SAMPLE: 1,440 samples of PBMCs from 6 healthy research horses. PROCEDURES: From heparinized whole blood samples, PBMC cultures were obtained. An initial dose-response trial on 48 PBMC samples from 2 horses (24 samples each) was used to determine concentrations of IFN-γ and LPS for use as low- and high-level stimulation concentrations. Seventy-two PBMC samples from 6 horses were assigned equally to 1 of 4 PARP1 inhibition categories: no PARP1 inhibitor (PARP1 inhibition control); 2-((R)-2-methylpyrrolidin-2-yl)-1H-benzimidazole-4-carbozamide dihydrochloride (ABT888);4-(3-(1-(cyclopropanecarbonyl)piperazine-4-carbonyl)-4-fluorobenzyl)phthalazin-1(2H)-one (AZD2281); or N-(6-oxo-5,6-dihydrophenanthridin-2-yl) -N,N-dimethylacetamide hydrochloride (PJ34). Samples of PBMCs from each horse and each PARP1 inhibition category were then assigned to 1 of 3 levels of IFN-γ and LPS stimulation: none (control), low stimulation, or high stimulation. After a 24-hour incubation period, a TNF-α ELISA was used to measure TNF-α concentration in the supernatant. Results were compared across treatments and for each horse. Data were analyzed with repeated-measures ANOVA. RESULTS: Median TNF-α concentration was significantly lower for PJ34-treated, high-level stimulated PBMCs than for PARP1 inhibition control, high-level stimulated PBMCs; however, no other meaningful differences in TNF-α concentration were detected among the inhibition and stimulation combinations. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Findings suggested that PJ34 PARP1 inhibition may reduce TNF-α production in horses, a potential benefit in reducing inflammation and endotoxin-induced damage in horses.

First prospective comparison of genotypic versus phenotypic tropism assays in predicting virologic responses to maraviroc in a phase 3 study.

Maraviroc (MVC, a CCR5 antagonist) is only fully active against CCR5 tropic [R5] HIV-1, and tropism testing is required prior to initiating treatment. The MODERN study prospectively compared genotypic (GTT) and phenotypic (Trofile®) tropism testing with treatment-naive HIV-1-infected participants randomized 1:1 to either GTT or Trofile tropism assessments. Participants with R5 virus were randomized 1:1 to receive darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r) with either MVC or tenofovir/emtricitabine. Screening samples were also retrospectively tested using the alternative assay. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for each assay were estimated using both the observed MVC+DRV/r response rate (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL at Week 48) and model-based response estimates. The observed MVC+DRV/r response rate was 146/181 (80.7%) for GTT versus 160/215 (74.4%) for Trofile, with a stratification adjusted difference of 6.6% (95% CI, -1.5% to 14.7%) in favor of GTT. The model-based PPV estimates (±standard error) were 80.5% (±2.38) and 78.0% (±2.35) for GTT and Trofile, respectively (difference, 2.5%; 95% CI, -2.0% to 7.0%). Most participants had R5 results using both assays (285/396; 72%) and, of those, 79.3% (226/285) had HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL at Week 48. Both the genotypic and phenotypic tropism assays evaluated can effectively predict treatment response to MVC.

Alpha-Amino-Beta-Carboxy-Muconate-Semialdehyde Decarboxylase Controls Dietary Niacin Requirements for NAD+ Synthesis.

NAD+ is essential for redox reactions in energy metabolism and necessary for DNA repair and epigenetic modification. Humans require sufficient amounts of dietary niacin (nicotinic acid, nicotinamide, and nicotinamide riboside) for adequate NAD+ synthesis. In contrast, mice easily generate sufficient NAD+ solely from tryptophan through the kynurenine pathway. We show that transgenic mice with inducible expression of human alpha-amino-beta-carboxy-muconate-semialdehyde decarboxylase (ACMSD) become niacin dependent similar to humans when ACMSD expression is high. On niacin-free diets, these acquired niacin dependency (ANDY) mice developed reversible, mild-to-severe NAD+ deficiency, depending on the nutrient composition of the diet. NAD deficiency in mice contributed to behavioral and health changes that are reminiscent of human niacin deficiency. This study shows that ACMSD is a key regulator of mammalian dietary niacin requirements and NAD+ metabolism and that the ANDY mouse represents a versatile platform for investigating pathologies linked to low NAD+ levels in aging and neurodegenerative diseases.

Assessment of Poly(ADP-ribose) Polymerase1 (PARP1) expression and activity in cells purified from blood and milk of dairy cattle.

Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation (PAR) is a post-translational protein modification catalysed by enzyme member of the poly(ADP-ribose) polymerases (PARPs) family. The activation of several PARPs is triggered by DNA strand breakage and the main PARP enzyme involved in this process is PARP1. Besides its involvement in DNA repair, PARP1 is involved in several cellular processes including transcription, epigenetics, chromatin re-modelling as well as in the maintenance of genomic stability. Moreover, several studies in human and animal models showed PARP1 activation in various inflammatory disorders. The aims of the study were (1) to characterize PARP1 expression in bovine peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and (2) to evaluate PAR levels as a potential inflammatory marker in cells isolated from blood and milk samples following different types of infection, including mastitis. Our results show that (i) bovine PBMC express PARP1; (ii) lymphocytes exhibit higher expression of PARP1 than monocytes; (iii) PARP1 and PAR levels were higher in circulating PBMCs of infected cows; (iv) PAR levels were higher in cells isolated from milk with higher Somatic Cell Counts (SCC > 100,000 cells/mL) than in cells from milk with low SCCs. In conclusion, these findings suggest that PARP1 is activated during mastitis, which may prove to be a useful biomarker of mastitis.

Early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma in the modern era: simulation modelling to delineate long-term patient outcomes.

We developed a novel simulation model integrating multiple data sets to project long-term outcomes with contemporary therapy for early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (ESHL), namely combined modality therapy (CMT) versus chemotherapy alone (CA) via 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography response-adaption. The model incorporated 3-year progression-free survival (PFS), probability of cure with/without relapse, frequency of severe late effects (LEs), and 35-year probability of LEs. Furthermore, we generated estimates for quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and unadjusted survival (life years, LY) and used model projections to compare outcomes for CMTversusCA for two index patients. Patient 1: a 25-year-old male with favourable ESHL (stage IA); Patient 2: a 25-year-old female with unfavourable ESHL (stage IIB). Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of alternative assumptions for LE probabilities. For Patient 1, CMT was superior to CA (CMT incremental gain = 0·11 QALYs, 0·21 LYs). For Patient 2, CA was superior to CMT (CA incremental gain = 0·37 QALYs, 0·92 LYs). For Patient 1, the advantage of CMT changed minimally when the proportion of severe LEs was reduced from 20% to 5% (0·15 QALYs, 0·43 LYs), whereas increasing the severity proportion for Patient 2's LEs from 20% to 80% enhanced the advantage of CA (1·1 QALYs, 6·5 LYs). Collectively, this detailed simulation model quantified the long-term impact that varied host factors and alternative contemporary treatments have in ESHL.