Early COVID-19 pandemic modeling: Three compartmental model case studies from Texas, USA.

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in late 2019 and spread globally in early 2020. Initial reports suggested the associated disease, COVID-19, produced rapid epidemic growth and caused high mortality. As the virus sparked local epidemics in new communities, health systems and policy makers were forced to make decisions with limited information about the spread of the disease. We developed a compartmental model to project COVID-19 healthcare demands that combined information regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics from international reports with local COVID-19 hospital census data to support response efforts in three Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Texas, USA: Austin-Round Rock, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, and Beaumont-Port Arthur. Our model projects that strict stay-home orders and other social distancing measures could suppress the spread of the pandemic. Our capacity to provide rapid decision-support in response to emerging threats depends on access to data, validated modeling approaches, careful uncertainty quantification, and adequate computational resources.

Cellular events of acute, resolving or progressive COVID-19 in SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates.

Understanding SARS-CoV-2 associated immune pathology is crucial to develop pan-effective vaccines and treatments. Here we investigate the immune events from the acute state up to four weeks post SARS-CoV-2 infection, in non-human primates (NHP) with heterogeneous pulmonary pathology. We show a robust migration of CD16 expressing monocytes to the lungs occurring during the acute phase, and we describe two subsets of interstitial macrophages (HLA-DR+CD206-): a transitional CD11c+CD16+ cell population directly associated with IL-6 levels in plasma, and a long-lasting CD11b+CD16+ cell population. Trafficking of monocytes is mediated by TARC (CCL17) and associates with viral load measured in bronchial brushes. We also describe associations between disease outcomes and high levels of cell infiltration in lungs including CD11b+CD16hi macrophages and CD11b+ neutrophils. Accumulation of macrophages is long-lasting and detectable even in animals with mild or no signs of disease. Interestingly, animals with anti-inflammatory responses including high IL-10:IL-6 and kynurenine to tryptophan ratios show less severe illness. Our results unravel cellular mechanisms of COVID-19 and suggest that NHP may be appropriate models to test immune therapies.