Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Long-Whiskered Owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) in Amazonas and San Martin, NW Peru.

The IUCN has listed the long-whiskered owlet (Xenoglaux loweryi) as vulnerable due to the presence of few geographic records, its restricted range, and anthropogenic threats. Its natural history and ecology are largely unknown, and its distribution is widely debated; therefore, there is an urgent need for the real-time conservation of X. loweryi. In this study, 66 geo-referenced records of X. loweryi, 18 environmental variables, and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) have been used to predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of X. loweryi in the Amazonas and San Martin regions of northwestern Peru. In fact, under current conditions, areas of "high", "moderate", and "low" potential habitat suitability cover 0.16% (140.85 km2), 0.46% (416.88 km2), and 1.16% (1048.79 km2) of the study area, respectively. Moreover, under future conditions, the "high", "moderate", and "low" probability areas present profits and losses in terms of habitat suitability. Based on the environmental variables, this species mostly inhabits areas with a forest fraction with presence of trees with an emergent tree canopy of ~10-30 metres and depends on Yunga montane forest habitats with high humidity but it is not dependent on bare cover area, crops, or grasslands. Nevertheless, most of the current and future distribution areas are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas and San Martin. Additionally, the combination of climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to further losses of this species habitat. Therefore, from the management point of view, corrective and preventive actions will help to preserve this species over time.

Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru.

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of "high", "moderate" and "low" potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. "High" potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while "moderate" and "low" potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The "moderate", "low" and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while "high" potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.