Polygenic risk score for ulcerative colitis predicts immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis.

Immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis (IMC) is a common adverse event of treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). We hypothesize that genetic susceptibility to Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) predisposes to IMC. In this study, we first develop a polygenic risk scores for CD (PRSCD) and UC (PRSUC) in cancer-free individuals and then test these PRSs on IMC in a cohort of 1316 patients with ICI-treated non-small cell lung cancer and perform a replication in 873 ICI-treated pan-cancer patients. In a meta-analysis, the PRSUC predicts all-grade IMC (ORmeta=1.35 per standard deviation [SD], 95% CI = 1.12-1.64, P = 2×10-03) and severe IMC (ORmeta=1.49 per SD, 95% CI = 1.18-1.88, P = 9×10-04). PRSCD is not associated with IMC. Furthermore, PRSUC predicts severe IMC among patients treated with combination ICIs (ORmeta=2.20 per SD, 95% CI = 1.07-4.53, P = 0.03). Overall, PRSUC can identify patients receiving ICI at risk of developing IMC and may be useful to monitor patients and improve patient outcomes.

A genome-wide gene-environment interaction study of breast cancer risk for women of European ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide studies of gene-environment interactions (G×E) may identify variants associated with disease risk in conjunction with lifestyle/environmental exposures. We conducted a genome-wide G×E analysis of ~ 7.6 million common variants and seven lifestyle/environmental risk factors for breast cancer risk overall and for estrogen receptor positive (ER +) breast cancer. METHODS: Analyses were conducted using 72,285 breast cancer cases and 80,354 controls of European ancestry from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Gene-environment interactions were evaluated using standard unconditional logistic regression models and likelihood ratio tests for breast cancer risk overall and for ER + breast cancer. Bayesian False Discovery Probability was employed to assess the noteworthiness of each SNP-risk factor pairs. RESULTS: Assuming a 1 × 10-5 prior probability of a true association for each SNP-risk factor pairs and a Bayesian False Discovery Probability < 15%, we identified two independent SNP-risk factor pairs: rs80018847(9p13)-LINGO2 and adult height in association with overall breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96), and rs4770552(13q12)-SPATA13 and age at menarche for ER + breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the contribution of G×E interactions to the heritability of breast cancer is very small. At the population level, multiplicative G×E interactions do not make an important contribution to risk prediction in breast cancer.

Polygenic risk score for ulcerative colitis predicts immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are a remarkable advancement in cancer therapeutics; however, a substantial proportion of patients develop severe immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Understanding and predicting irAEs is a key to advancing precision immuno-oncology. Immune checkpoint inhibitor-mediated colitis (IMC) is a significant complication from ICI and can have life-threatening consequences. Based on clinical presentation, IMC mimics inflammatory bowel disease, however the link is poorly understood. We hypothesized that genetic susceptibility to Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) may predispose to IMC. We developed and validated polygenic risk scores for CD (PRSCD) and UC (PRSUC) in cancer-free individuals and assessed the role of each of these PRSs on IMC in a cohort of 1,316 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who received ICIs. Prevalence of all-grade IMC in our cohort was 4% (55 cases), and for severe IMC, 2.5% (32 cases). The PRSUC predicted the development of all-grade IMC (HR=1.34 per standard deviation [SD], 95% CI=1.02-1.76, P=0.04) and severe IMC (HR=1.62 per SD, 95% CI=1.12-2.35, P=0.01). PRSCD was not associated with IMC or severe IMC. The association between PRSUC and IMC (all-grade and severe) was consistent in an independent pan-cancer cohort of patients treated with ICIs. Furthermore, PRSUC predicted severe IMC among patients treated with combination ICIs (OR = 2.20 per SD, 95% CI = 1.07-4.53, P=0.03). This is the first study to demonstrate the potential clinical utility of a PRS for ulcerative colitis in identifying patients receiving ICI at high risk of developing IMC, where risk reduction and close monitoring strategies could help improve overall patient outcomes.

Development and testing of a polygenic risk score for breast cancer aggressiveness.

Aggressive breast cancers portend a poor prognosis, but current polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer do not reliably predict aggressive cancers. Aggressiveness can be effectively recapitulated using tumor gene expression profiling. Thus, we sought to develop a PRS for the risk of recurrence score weighted on proliferation (ROR-P), an established prognostic signature. Using 2363 breast cancers with tumor gene expression data and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes, we examined the associations between ROR-P and known breast cancer susceptibility SNPs using linear regression models. We constructed PRSs based on varying p-value thresholds and selected the optimal PRS based on model r2 in 5-fold cross-validation. We then used Cox proportional hazards regression to test the ROR-P PRS's association with breast cancer-specific survival in two independent cohorts totaling 10,196 breast cancers and 785 events. In meta-analysis of these cohorts, higher ROR-P PRS was associated with worse survival, HR per SD = 1.13 (95% CI 1.06-1.21, p = 4.0 × 10-4). The ROR-P PRS had a similar magnitude of effect on survival as a comparator PRS for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative versus positive cancer risk (PRSER-/ER+). Furthermore, its effect was minimally attenuated when adjusted for PRSER-/ER+, suggesting that the ROR-P PRS provides additional prognostic information beyond ER status. In summary, we used integrated analysis of germline SNP and tumor gene expression data to construct a PRS associated with aggressive tumor biology and worse survival. These findings could potentially enhance risk stratification for breast cancer screening and prevention.

Distinct Reproductive Risk Profiles for Intrinsic-Like Breast Cancer Subtypes: Pooled Analysis of Population-Based Studies.

BACKGROUND: Reproductive factors have been shown to be differentially associated with risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative breast cancer. However, their associations with intrinsic-like subtypes are less clear. METHODS: Analyses included up to 23 353 cases and 71 072 controls pooled from 31 population-based case-control or cohort studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium across 16 countries on 4 continents. Polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate the association between reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, HER2-enriched-like, and triple-negative breast cancer) and by invasiveness. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had a lower risk of luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, and HER2-enriched-like disease. This association was apparent only after approximately 10 years since last birth and became stronger with increasing time (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49 to 0.71; and OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.46 for multiparous women with luminal A-like tumors 20 to less than 25 years after last birth and 45 to less than 50 years after last birth, respectively). In contrast, parous women had a higher risk of triple-negative breast cancer right after their last birth (for multiparous women: OR = 3.12, 95% CI = 2.02 to 4.83) that was attenuated with time but persisted for decades (OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.34, for multiparous women 25 to less than 30 years after last birth). Older age at first birth (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) and breastfeeding (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) were associated with lower risk of triple-negative breast cancer but not with other disease subtypes. Younger age at menarche was associated with higher risk of all subtypes; older age at menopause was associated with higher risk of luminal A-like but not triple-negative breast cancer. Associations for in situ tumors were similar to luminal A-like. CONCLUSIONS: This large and comprehensive study demonstrates a distinct reproductive risk factor profile for triple-negative breast cancer compared with other subtypes, with implications for the understanding of disease etiology and risk prediction.

ß-Carotene Supplementation and Lung Cancer Incidence in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study: The Role of Tar and Nicotine.

INTRODUCTION: The Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study demonstrated that ß-carotene supplementation increases lung cancer incidence in smokers. Further, cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content are associated with a higher risk of lung cancer. However, no studies have examined whether the increased risk associated with ß-carotene supplementation in smokers varies by the tar or nicotine content of cigarettes. METHODS: The ATBC Study was a randomized, double-blind intervention trial conducted in southwest Finland. A total of 29 133 male smokers, aged 50-69 years, were enrolled and randomly assigned to one of four groups (α-tocopherol, ß-carotene, both, or placebo). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of lung cancer risk by ß-carotene trial assignment stratified by a priori categories of cigarette tar and nicotine content. RESULTS: The ß-carotene supplementation group had significantly higher risk of developing lung cancer in all categories of tar content (yes vs. no ß-carotene supplementation-ultralight cigarettes [≤7 mg tar]: HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 0.91 to 1.89; nonfiltered cigarettes [≥21 mg tar]: HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.91 to 1.64; p for interaction = .91). Similarly, there was no interaction with nicotine content (yes vs. no ß-carotene supplementation-ventilated cigarettes [≤0.8 µg nicotine]: HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.54; nonfiltered cigarettes [≥1.3 µg nicotine]: HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.91 to 1.64; p for interaction = .83). CONCLUSION: These findings support the conclusion that supplementation with ß-carotene increases the risk of lung cancer in smokers regardless of the tar or nicotine content of cigarettes smoked. Our data suggest that all smokers should continue to avoid ß-carotene supplementation. IMPLICATIONS: Previous studies demonstrated that ß-carotene supplementation increases risk of lung cancer in smokers. This study moves the field forward by examining the potential for modification of risk of lung cancer with different levels of tar and nicotine in cigarettes smoked, as interaction with carcinogens in these components of cigarette smoke is hypothesized to be the mechanism by which ß-carotene increases risk. Our study provides evidence that the increased risk of lung cancer in smokers who take ß-carotene supplements is not dependent upon the tar or nicotine level of cigarettes smoked and suggests that all smokers should continue to avoid ß-carotene supplementation.

Current Applications of Genetic Risk Scores to Cardiovascular Outcomes and Subclinical Phenotypes.

Genetic risk scores are a useful tool for examining the cumulative predictive ability of genetic variation on cardiovascular disease. Important considerations for creating genetic risk scores include the choice of genetic variants, weighting, and comparability across ethnicities. Genetic risk scores that use information from genome-wide meta-analyses can successfully predict cardiovascular outcomes and subclinical phenotypes, yet there is limited clinical utility of these scores beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors in many populations. Novel uses of genetic risk scores include evaluating the genetic contribution of specific intermediate traits or risk factors to cardiovascular disease, risk prediction in high-risk populations, gene-by-environment interaction studies, and Mendelian randomization studies. Though questions remain about the ultimate clinical utility of the genetic risk score, further investigation in high-risk populations and new ways to combine genetic risk scores with traditional risk factors may prove to be fruitful.