Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about business growth, forecaster disagreement about future GDP growth, and a model-based measure of macro uncertainty. Four results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak amplitudes differ greatly - from a 35% rise for the model-based measure of US economic uncertainty (relative to January 2020) to a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: Implied volatility rose rapidly from late February, peaked in mid-March, and fell back by late March as stock prices began to recover. In contrast, broader measures of uncertainty peaked later and then plateaued, as job losses mounted, highlighting differences between Wall Street and Main Street uncertainty measures. Fourth, in Cholesky-identified VAR models fit to monthly U.S. data, a COVID-size uncertainty shock foreshadows peak drops in industrial production of 12-19%.

Medical Record Documentation in a Learning Disability In-patient Unit.

INTRODUCTION: Consistency in clinical structure and content is an important aspect of clinical practice. The rising demands on healthcare systems and associated costs require a much more efficient and transparent means of recording and accessing reliable clinical information in order to manage and deliver good quality care to patients. AIMS: The audit has been completed with an aim to highlight the local standards set for medical record documentation and to assess if the outlined standards are being met in a learning disability in-patient psychiatric setting, the Coppice. METHODOLOGY: Criteria based on GMC Good Medical practice guidelines (2013), RCPsych Good Psychiatric Practice (2009) and Records Management Policy. CONCLUSIONS: Good practice was maintained for most parameters. Mild inaccuracies were noted with date of birth/ward name, timing and signatures. RECOMMENDATIONS: This was presented locally and measures put in place to address the gaps. A re-audit should be performed within a year in order to complete the audit cycle and to ensure that the recommendations and action plan have been followed through.