Prediction of Early Adverse Events After THA: A Comparison of Different Machine-Learning Strategies Based on 262,356 Observations From the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) Dataset.

OBJECTIVE: Preoperative risk prediction models can support shared decision-making before total hip arthroplasties (THAs). Here, we compare different machine-learning (ML) approaches to predict the six-month risk of adverse events following primary THA to obtain accurate yet simple-to-use risk prediction models. METHODS: We extracted data on primary THAs (N = 262,356) between 2010 and 2018 from the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association dataset. We benchmarked a variety of ML algorithms in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for predicting the risk of revision caused by periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), dislocation or periprosthetic fracture (PPF), and death. All models were internally validated against a randomly selected test cohort (one-third of the data) that was not used for training the models. RESULTS: The incidences of revisions because of PJI, dislocation, and PPF were 0.8%, 0.4%, and 0.3%, respectively, and the incidence of death was 1.2%. Overall, Lasso regression with stable iterative variable selection (SIVS) produced models using only four to five input variables but with AUROC comparable to more complex models using all 32 variables available. The SIVS-based Lasso models based on age, sex, preoperative diagnosis, bearing couple, fixation, and surgical approach predicted the risk of revisions caused by PJI, dislocations, and PPF, as well as death, with AUROCs of 0.61, 0.67, 0.76, and 0.86, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that satisfactory predictive potential for adverse events following THA can be reached with parsimonious modeling strategies. The SIVS-based Lasso models may serve as simple-to-use tools for clinical risk assessment in the future.

Antithrombotic management after aortic valve replacement with biological prosthesis: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to summarise the existing knowledge regarding antithrombotic medications following surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) using a biological valve prosthesis. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of studies that reported the results of using antithrombotic medication to prevent thromboembolic events after SAVR using a biological aortic valve prosthesis and recorded the outcomes 12 months after surgery. Since no randomised controlled trials were identified, observational studies were included. The analyses were conducted separately for periods of 0-12 months and 3-12 months after surgery. A random effects model was used to calculate pooled outcome event rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The search yielded eight eligible observational studies covering 6727 patients overall. The lowest 0- to 12-month mortality was observed in patients with anticoagulation (2.0%, 95% CI 0.4-9.7%) and anticoagulation combined with antiplatelet therapy (2.2%, 95% CI 0.9-5.5%), and the highest was in patients without antithrombotic medication (7.3%, 95% CI 3.6-14.2%). Three months after surgery, mortality was lower in anticoagulant patients (0.5%, 95% CI 0.1-2.6%) than in antiplatelet patients (3.0%, 95% CI 1.2-7.4%) and those without antithrombotics (3.5%, 95% CI 1.3-9.3%). There was no eligible evidence of differences in stroke rates observed among medication strategies. At 0- to 12-month follow-up, all antithrombotic treatment regimens resulted in an increased bleeding rate (antiplatelet 4.2%, 95% CI 2.9-6.1%; anticoagulation 7.5%, 95% CI 3.8-14.4%; anticoagulation combined with antiplatelet therapy 8.3%, 95% CI 5.7-11.8%) compared to no antithrombotic medication (1.1%, 95% CI 0.4-3.4%). At 3- to 12-month follow-up, there was up to an eight-fold increase in the bleeding rate in patients with anticoagulation combined with antiplatelet therapy when compared to those with no antithrombotic medication. Overall, the evidence certainty was ranked as very low. CONCLUSION: Although this meta-analysis reveals that anticoagulation therapy has a beneficial tendency in terms of mortality at 1 year after biological SAVR and suggests potential advantages in continuing anticoagulation beyond 3 months, it is limited by very low evidence certainty. The imperative for cautious interpretation and the urgent need for more robust randomised research underscore the complexity of determining optimal antithrombotic strategies in this patient population.

Proteomics screening after pediatric allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation reveals an association between increased expression of inhibitory receptor FCRL6 on γδ T cells and cytomegalovirus reactivation.

We studied the associations between inflammation-related proteins in circulation and complications after pediatric allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), to reveal proteomic signatures or individual soluble proteins associated with specific complications after HSCT. We used a proteomics method called Proximity Extension Assay to repeatedly measure 180 different proteins together with clinical variables, cellular immune reconstitution and blood viral copy numbers in 27 children (1-18 years of age) during a 2-year follow-up after allogenic HSCT. Protein profile analysis was performed using unsupervised hierarchical clustering and a regression-based method, while the Bonferroni-corrected Mann-Whitney U-test was used for time point-specific comparison of individual proteins against outcome. At 6 months after allogenic HSCT, we could identify a protein profile pattern associated with occurrence of the complications such as chronic graft-versus-host disease, viral infections, relapse and death. When protein markers were analyzed separately, the plasma concentration of the inhibitory and cytotoxic T-cell surface protein FCRL6 (Fc receptor-like 6) was higher in patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia [log2-fold change 1.5 (P = 0.00099), 2.5 (P = 0.00035) and 2.2 (P = 0.045) at time points 6, 12 and 24 months]. Flow cytometry confirmed that FCRL6 expression was higher in innate-like γδ T cells, indicating that these cells are involved in controlling CMV reactivation in HSCT recipients. In conclusion, the potentially druggable FCRL6 receptor on cytotoxic T cells appears to have a role in controlling CMV viremia after HSCT. Furthermore, our results suggest that system-level analysis is a useful addition to the studying of single biomarkers in allogenic HSCT.

Periprosthetic Joint Infection After Total Knee Arthroplasty With or Without Antibiotic Bone Cement.

Importance: Despite increased use of antibiotic-loaded bone cement (ALBC) in joint arthroplasty over recent decades, current evidence for prophylactic use of ALBC to reduce risk of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is insufficient. Objective: To compare the rate of revision attributed to PJI following primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) using ALBC vs plain bone cement. Design, Setting, and Participants: This international cohort study used data from 14 national or regional joint arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Romania, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US. The study included primary TKAs for osteoarthritis registered from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2020, and followed-up until December 31, 2021. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2023. Exposure: Primary TKA with ALBC vs plain bone cement. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was risk of 1-year revision for PJI. Using a distributed data network analysis method, data were harmonized, and a cumulative revision rate was calculated (1 - Kaplan-Meier), and Cox regression analyses were performed within the 10 registries using both cement types. A meta-analysis was then performed to combine all aggregated data and evaluate the risk of 1-year revision for PJI and all causes. Results: Among 2 168 924 TKAs included, 93% were performed with ALBC. Most TKAs were performed in female patients (59.5%) and patients aged 65 to 74 years (39.9%), fully cemented (92.2%), and in the 2015 to 2020 period (62.5%). All participating registries reported a cumulative 1-year revision rate for PJI of less than 1% following primary TKA with ALBC (range, 0.21%-0.80%) and with plain bone cement (range, 0.23%-0.70%). The meta-analyses based on adjusted Cox regression for 1 917 190 TKAs showed no statistically significant difference at 1 year in risk of revision for PJI (hazard rate ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.89-1.52) or for all causes (hazard rate ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.89-1.40) among TKAs performed with ALBC vs plain bone cement. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the risk of revision for PJI was similar between ALBC and plain bone cement following primary TKA. Any additional costs of ALBC and its relative value in reducing revision risk should be considered in the context of the overall health care delivery system.

Deep Learning Enables Automatic Detection of Joint Damage Progression in Rheumatoid Arthritis-Model Development and External Validation.

OBJECTIVES: Although deep learning has demonstrated substantial potential in automatic quantification of joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), evidence for detecting longitudinal changes at an individual patient level is lacking. Here, we introduce and externally validate our automated RA scoring algorithm (AuRA), and demonstrate its utility for monitoring radiographic progression in a real-world setting. METHODS: The algorithm, originally developed during the Rheumatoid Arthritis 2-Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (RA2-DREAM) challenge, was trained to predict expert-curated Sharp-van der Heijde total scores in hand and foot radiographs from two previous clinical studies (n = 367). We externally validated AuRA against data (n = 205) from Turku University Hospital and compared the performance against two top-performing RA2-DREAM solutions. Finally, for 54 patients, we extracted additional radiograph sets from another control visit to the clinic (average time interval of 4.6 years). RESULTS: In the external validation cohort, with a root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 23.6, AuRA outperformed both top-performing RA2-DREAM algorithms (RMSEs 35.0 and 35.6). The improved performance was explained mostly by lower errors at higher expert-assessed scores. The longitudinal changes predicted by our algorithm were significantly correlated with changes in expert-assessed scores (Pearson's R = 0.74, p< 0.001). CONCLUSION: AuRA had the best external validation performance and demonstrated potential for detecting longitudinal changes in joint damage. Available in https://hub.docker.com/r/elolab/aura, our algorithm can easily be applied for automatic detection of radiographic progression in the future, reducing the need for laborious manual scoring.

Development and validation of a weight-loss predictor to assist weight loss management.

This study aims to develop and validate a modeling framework to predict long-term weight change on the basis of self-reported weight data. The aim is to enable focusing resources of health systems on individuals that are at risk of not achieving their goals in weight loss interventions, which would help both health professionals and the individuals in weight loss management. The weight loss prediction models were built on 327 participants, aged 21-78, from a Finnish weight coaching cohort, with at least 9 months of self-reported follow-up weight data during weight loss intervention. With these data, we used six machine learning methods to predict weight loss after 9 months and selected the best performing models for implementation as modeling framework. We trained the models to predict either three classes of weight change (weight loss, insufficient weight loss, weight gain) or five classes (high/moderate/insufficient weight loss, high/low weight gain). Finally, the prediction accuracy was validated with an independent cohort of overweight UK adults (n = 184). Of the six tested modeling approaches, logistic regression performed the best. Most three-class prediction models achieved prediction accuracy of > 50% already with half a month of data and up to 97% with 8 months. The five-class prediction models achieved accuracies from 39% (0.5 months) to 89% (8 months). Our approach provides an accurate prediction method for long-term weight loss, with potential for easier and more efficient management of weight loss interventions in the future. A web application is available: https://elolab.shinyapps.io/WeightChangePredictor/ .The trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04019249 (Clinical Trials Identifier NCT04019249), first posted on 15/07/2019.

Development of prediction model for alanine transaminase elevations during the first 6 months of conventional synthetic DMARD treatment.

Frequent laboratory monitoring is recommended for early identification of toxicity when initiating conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs). We aimed at developing a risk prediction model to individualize laboratory testing at csDMARD initiation. We identified inflammatory joint disease patients (N = 1196) initiating a csDMARD in Turku University Hospital 2013-2019. Baseline and follow-up safety monitoring results were drawn from electronic health records. For rheumatoid arthritis patients, diagnoses and csDMARD initiation/cessation dates were manually confirmed. Primary endpoint was alanine transaminase (ALT) elevation of more than twice the upper limit of normal (ULN) within 6 months after treatment initiation. Computational models for predicting incident ALT elevations were developed using Lasso Cox proportional hazards regression with stable iterative variable selection (SIVS) and were internally validated against a randomly selected test cohort (1/3 of the data) that was not used for training the models. Primary endpoint was reached in 82 patients (6.9%). Among baseline variables, Lasso model with SIVS predicted subsequent ALT elevations of > 2 × ULN using higher ALT, csDMARD other than methotrexate or sulfasalazine and psoriatic arthritis diagnosis as important predictors, with a concordance index of 0.71 in the test cohort. Respectively, at first follow-up, in addition to baseline ALT and psoriatic arthritis diagnosis, also ALT change from baseline was identified as an important predictor resulting in a test concordance index of 0.72. Our computational model predicts ALT elevations after the first follow-up test with good accuracy and can help in optimizing individual testing frequency.

Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process.

Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections, i.e., incidence, in an outbreak. We develop a stochastic model of an outbreak based on a time-varying variant of the Crump-Mode-Jagers branching process. This model accommodates a time-varying reproduction number and a time-varying distribution for the generation interval. We then derive renewal-like integral equations for incidence, cumulative incidence and prevalence under this model. We show that the equations for incidence and prevalence are consistent with the so-called back-calculation relationship. We analyse two particular cases of these integral equations, one that arises from a Bellman-Harris process and one that arises from an inhomogeneous Poisson process model of transmission. We also show that the incidence integral equations that arise from both of these specific models agree with the renewal equation used ubiquitously in infectious disease modelling. We present a numerical discretisation scheme to solve these equations, and use this scheme to estimate rates of transmission from serological prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and historical incidence data on Influenza, Measles, SARS and Smallpox.

Risk factors for revision due to prosthetic joint infection following total knee arthroplasty based on 62,087 knees in the Finnish Arthroplasty Register from 2014 to 2020.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is the commonest reason for revision after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We assessed the risk factors for revision due to PJI following TKA based on the Finnish Arthroplasty Register (FAR). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed 62,087 primary condylar TKAs registered between June 2014 and February 2020 with revision for PJI as the endpoint. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the first PJI revision using 25 potential patient- and surgical-related risk factors as covariates. RESULTS: 484 knees were revised for the first time during the first postoperative year because of PJI. The HRs for revision due to PJI in unadjusted analysis were 0.5 (0.4-0.6) for female sex, 0.7 (0.6-1.0) for BMI 25-29, and 1.6 (1.1-2.5) for BMI > 40 compared with BMI < 25, 4.0 (1.3-12) for preoperative fracture diagnosis compared with osteoarthritis, and 0.7 (0.5-0.9) for use of an antimicrobial incise drape. In adjusted analysis the HRs were 2.2 (1.4-3.5) for ASA class III-IV compared with class I, 1.7 (1.4-2.1) for intraoperative bleeding ≥ 100 mL, 1.4 (1.2-1.8) for use of a drain, 0.7 (0.5-1.0) for short duration of operation of 45-59 minutes, and 1.7 (1.3-2.3) for long operation duration > 120 min compared with 60-89 minutes, and 1.3 (1.0-1.8) for use of general anesthesia. CONCLUSION: We found increased risk for revision due to PJI when no incise drape was used. The use of drainage also increased the risk. Specializing in performing TKA reduces operative time and thereby also the PJI rate.

A novel easy-to-use index to predict institutionalization and death in older population - a 10-year population-based follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Various indexes have been developed to estimate the risk for mortality, institutionalization, and other adverse outcomes for older people. Most indexes are based on a large number of clinical or laboratory parameters. An index based on only a few parameters would be more practical to use in every-day clinical practice. Our aim was to create an index to predict the risk for mortality and institutionalization with as few parameters as possible without compromising their predictive ability. METHODS: A prospective study with a 10-year follow-up period. Thirty-six clinical and fourteen laboratory parameters were combined to form an index. Cox regression model was used to analyze the association of the index with institutionalization and mortality. A backward statistical method was used to reduce the number of parameters to form an easy-to-use index for predicting institutionalization and mortality. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants (n = 1172) was 73.1 (SD 6.6, range 64‒97) years. Altogether, 149 (14%) subjects were institutionalized, and 413 (35%) subjects deceased during the follow-up. Institutionalization and mortality rates increased as index scores increased both for the large 50-parameter combined index and for the reduced indexes. After a backward variable selection in the Cox regression model, three clinical parameters remained in the index to predict institutionalization and six clinical and three laboratory parameters in the index to predict mortality. The reduced indexes showed a slightly better predictive value for both institutionalization and mortality compared to the full index. CONCLUSIONS: A large index with fifty parameters included many unimportant parameters that did not increase its predictive value, and therefore could be replaced with a reduced index with only a few carefully chosen parameters, that were individually associated with institutionalization or death.

Intrinsic randomness in epidemic modelling beyond statistical uncertainty.

Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever observe a single epidemic, and therefore cannot empirically determine aleatoric uncertainty. Here, we characterise both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using a time-varying general branching process. Our framework explicitly decomposes aleatoric variance into mechanistic components, quantifying the contribution to uncertainty produced by each factor in the epidemic process, and how these contributions vary over time. The aleatoric variance of an outbreak is itself a renewal equation where past variance affects future variance. We find that, superspreading is not necessary for substantial uncertainty, and profound variation in outbreak size can occur even without overdispersion in the offspring distribution (i.e. the distribution of the number of secondary infections an infected person produces). Aleatoric forecasting uncertainty grows dynamically and rapidly, and so forecasting using only epistemic uncertainty is a significant underestimate. Therefore, failure to account for aleatoric uncertainty will ensure that policymakers are misled about the substantially higher true extent of potential risk. We demonstrate our method, and the extent to which potential risk is underestimated, using two historical examples.

High-dose adenosine versus saline-induced cardioplegic arrest in coronary artery bypass grafting: A randomized double-blind clinical feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In this clinical trial, we evaluated if a short-acting nucleoside, adenosine, as a high-dose bolus injection with blood cardioplegia induces faster arrest and provides better myocardial performance in patients after bypass surgery for coronary artery disease. METHODS: Forty-three patients scheduled for elective or urgent coronary artery bypass grafting were prospectively recruited in two-arm 1:1 randomized parallel groups to either receive 20 mg of adenosine (in 21 patients) or saline (in 22 patients) into the aortic root during the first potassium-enriched blood cardioplegia infusion. The main outcomes of the study were ventricular myocardial performance measured with cardiac index, right ventricular stroke work index, and left ventricular stroke work index at predefined time points and time to asystole after a single bolus injection of adenosine. Conventional myocardial biomarkers were compared between the two groups at predefined time points as secondary endpoints. Electrocardiographic data and other ad hoc clinical outcomes were compared between the groups. RESULTS: Compared with saline, adenosine reduced the time to asystole (68 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 37-100) versus 150 (95% CI = 100-210) seconds, p = 0.005). With myocardial performance, the results were inconclusive, since right ventricular stroke work index recovered better in the adenosine group (p = 0.008), but there were no significant overall differences in cardiac index and left ventricular stroke work index between the groups. Only the post-cardiopulmonary bypass cardiac index was better in the adenosine group (2.3 (95% CI = 2.2-2.5) versus 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.2) L/min/m2, p = 0.016). There were no significant differences between the groups in cardiac biomarker values. CONCLUSIONS: A high dose adenosine bolus at the beginning of the first cardioplegia infusion resulted in significantly faster asystole in coronary artery bypass grafting patients but enhanced only partially the ventricular performance.EudraCT number: 2014-001382-26. https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2014-001382-26/FI.

Median 10-year whole blood metal ion levels and clinical outcome of ReCap-M2a-Magnum metal-on-metal total hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We have previously reported that the whole blood (WB) chromium (Cr) and cobalt (Co) ion levels decrease in the short term after ReCap-M2a-Magnum large-diameter head (LDH) metal-on-metal (MoM) total hip arthroplasty (THA). This study reports long-term metal ion levels and clinical outcomes after ReCap-Magnum THA. PATIENTS AND METHODS: ReCap-M2a-Magnum LDH THA was used in 1,450 patients in our hospital district from 2005 to 2012. Median follow-up time was 10 years. 991 patients had 2 or more metal ion measurements. The median measurement interval was 4 years. Individual metal ion change was assessed using logarithmic metal ion values in a random coefficient model. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were calculated for revision surgery for any reason for revision, and separately for metal-related adverse events (metal ions above safe upper limit [SUL], revision due to ARMD, or pseudotumor). RESULTS: Geometric mean of Cr decreased from 1.8 ppb (geometric standard deviation [GSD] 1.8) to 1.0 ppb (GSD 2.8, p < 0.001). The Co levels decreased from 1.7 ppb (GSD 2.4) to 1.4 ppb (GSD 2.8, p < 0.001). The hip-specific survival was 85% for revision due to any reason at 14 years and the hip-specific survival for any metal-related adverse event was 69% at 14 years. INTERPRETATION: WB Cr and Co levels continued to decrease in the long-term follow-up of ReCap-M2a-Magnum THA patients. The amount of metal-related adverse events was rather high, but revision surgery was seldom required. We suggest that after 10 years from the implantation a 5-year measurement interval may be sufficient for asymptomatic ReCap-M2a-Magnum patients.

Weight Loss Trajectories in Healthy Weight Coaching: Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: As global obesity prevalence continues to increase, there is a need for accessible and affordable weight management interventions, such as web-based programs. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to assess the outcomes of healthy weight coaching (HWC), a web-based obesity management program integrated into standard Finnish clinical care. METHODS: HWC is an ongoing, structured digital 12-month program based on acceptance and commitment therapy. It includes weekly training sessions focused on lifestyle, general health, and psychological factors. Participants received remote one-on-one support from a personal coach. In this real-life, single-arm, prospective cohort study, we examined the total weight loss, weight loss profiles, and variables associated with weight loss success and program retention in 1189 adults (963 women) with a BMI >25 kg/m² among participants of the program between October 2016 and March 2019. Absolute (kg) and relative (%) weight loss from the baseline were the primary outcomes. We also examined the weight loss profiles, clustered based on the dynamic time-warping distance, and the possible variables associated with greater weight loss success and program retention. We compared different groups using the Mann-Whitney test or Kruskal-Wallis test for continuous variables and the chi-squared test for categorical variables. We analyzed changes in medication using the McNemar test. RESULTS: Among those having reached the 12-month time point (n=173), the mean weight loss was 4.6% (SE 0.5%), with 43% (n=75) achieving clinically relevant weight loss (≥5%). Baseline BMI ≥40 kg/m² was associated with a greater weight loss than a lower BMI (mean 6.6%, SE 0.9%, vs mean 3.2%, SE 0.6%; P=.02). In addition, more frequent weight reporting was associated with greater weight loss. No significant differences in weight loss were observed according to sex, age, baseline disease, or medication use. The total dropout rate was 29.1%. Dropouts were slightly younger than continuers (47.2, SE 0.6 years vs 49.2, SE 0.4 years; P=.01) and reported their weight less frequently (3.0, SE 0.1 entries per month vs 3.3, SE 0.1 entries per month; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive web-based program such as HWC is a potential addition to the repertoire of obesity management in a clinical setting. Heavier patients lost more weight, but weight loss success was otherwise independent of baseline characteristics.

Long-term blood metal ion levels and clinical outcome after Birmingham hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to assess long-term metal ion level changes and clinical outcome in patients with a Birmingham hip arthroplasty. METHODS: For the purpose of this study, we identified all BHR hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) operations performed in Turku University Hospital. A random coefficient model was used to compare the change between the first and last metal ion measurement. A Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to assess the survivorship of the BHR HRA and BHR THA with metal related adverse events (pseudotumor, elevated metal ions above the safe upper limit, revision due to metallosis), or revision due to any reason as endpoints with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: BHR HRA was used in 274 hips (233 patients). In addition, we identified 38 BHR-Synergy THAs (38 patients). Operations were performed between 2003 and 2010. Median follow-up time was 14 years for BHR HRA (range: 0.6-17) and 11 years for BHR THA (range: 4.7-13). In the BHR HRA group, geometric means of Cr and Co levels decreased from 2.1 to 1.6 ppb and 2.4 to 1.5 ppb, respectively, during a 3.0-year measurement interval. Metal ion levels in the BHR THA group did not show notable increase. The survivorship of BHR HRA was 66% in 16 years and 34% for BHR THA at 12 years for any metal-related adverse event. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a Birmingham hip device do not seem to benefit from frequent repeated metal ion measurements. The amount of patients with metal-related adverse events was relatively high, but many of them did not require surgery.

Immunopathological signatures in multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and pediatric COVID-19.

Pediatric Coronavirus Disease 2019 (pCOVID-19) is rarely severe; however, a minority of children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might develop multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), with substantial morbidity. In this longitudinal multi-institutional study, we applied multi-omics (analysis of soluble biomarkers, proteomics, single-cell gene expression and immune repertoire analysis) to profile children with COVID-19 (n = 110) and MIS-C (n = 76), along with pediatric healthy controls (pHCs; n = 76). pCOVID-19 was characterized by robust type I interferon (IFN) responses, whereas prominent type II IFN-dependent and NF-κB-dependent signatures, matrisome activation and increased levels of circulating spike protein were detected in MIS-C, with no correlation with SARS-CoV-2 PCR status around the time of admission. Transient expansion of TRBV11-2 T cell clonotypes in MIS-C was associated with signatures of inflammation and T cell activation. The association of MIS-C with the combination of HLA A*02, B*35 and C*04 alleles suggests genetic susceptibility. MIS-C B cells showed higher mutation load than pCOVID-19 and pHC. These results identify distinct immunopathological signatures in pCOVID-19 and MIS-C that might help better define the pathophysiology of these disorders and guide therapy.

Repeated metal ion measurements and long-term outcome of Durom/MMC total hip arthroplasty.

Background and purpose - Data regarding long-term behavior of metal ion levels in metal-on-metal total hip arthroplasty (MoM THA) patients is scarce. Therefore, we assessed whether there is any change in whole blood (WB) chromium (Cr), and cobalt (Co) ion measurements in Durom and MMC MoM THA patients over time. The secondary aim was to report the clinical outcomes using these devices in a single district. Patients and methods - Durom and MMC cups were used in 249 MoM THAs from 2005 to 2011 in our district. Median follow-up time was 12 years for Durom THA (interquartile range [IQR] = 3) and 9 years for MMC THA (IQR = 1). A random coefficient model was used to compare individual differences in repeated WB Cr and Co ion measurements. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze implant survival with any reason for revision as the endpoint. Results - Geometric means of Cr in Durom THA and MMC THA patients decreased from 2.2 ppb (geometric standard deviation [SD] = 1.9) to 1.5 ppb (geometric SD = 2.5, p< 0.001) and from 1.8 ppb (geometric SD = 1.8) to 1.1 ppb (geometric SD = 2.8, p = 0.01) respectively. The geometric means of Co values remained unchanged. The 10-year survival of Durom THA was 82%, and that of MMC THA 89% for any revision reason as endpoint. Interpretation - WB Cr levels decreased over time, and Co levels remained unchanged at long-term follow-up. Despite this we recommend continuing the follow-up of these devices due to relatively low implant survival.

Improved risk prediction of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia-model development and validation with real-world data.

BACKGROUND: The existing risk prediction models for chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) do not necessarily apply to real-life patients in different healthcare systems and the external validation of these models are often lacking. Our study evaluates whether a machine learning-based risk prediction model could outperform the previously introduced models, especially when validated against real-world patient data from another institution not used for model training. METHODS: Using Turku University Hospital electronic medical records, we identified all patients who received chemotherapy for non-hematological cancer between the years 2010 and 2017 (N = 5879). An experimental surrogate endpoint was first-cycle neutropenic infection (NI), defined as grade IV neutropenia with serum C-reactive protein >10 mg/l. For predicting the risk of NI, a penalized regression model (Lasso) was developed. The model was externally validated in an independent dataset (N = 4594) from Tampere University Hospital. RESULTS: Lasso model accurately predicted NI risk with good accuracy (AUROC 0.84). In the validation cohort, the Lasso model outperformed two previously introduced, widely approved models, with AUROC 0.75. The variables selected by Lasso included granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) use, cancer type, pre-treatment neutrophil and thrombocyte count, intravenous treatment regimen, and the planned dose intensity. The same model predicted also FN, with AUROC 0.77, supporting the validity of NI as an endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that real-world NI risk prediction can be improved with machine learning and that every difference in patient or treatment characteristics can have a significant impact on model performance. Here we outline a novel, externally validated approach which may hold potential to facilitate more targeted use of G-CSFs in the future.

scShaper: an ensemble method for fast and accurate linear trajectory inference from single-cell RNA-seq data.

MOTIVATION: Computational models are needed to infer a representation of the cells, i.e. a trajectory, from single-cell RNA-sequencing data that model cell differentiation during a dynamic process. Although many trajectory inference methods exist, their performance varies greatly depending on the dataset and hence there is a need to establish more accurate, better generalizable methods. RESULTS: We introduce scShaper, a new trajectory inference method that enables accurate linear trajectory inference. The ensemble approach of scShaper generates a continuous smooth pseudotime based on a set of discrete pseudotimes. We demonstrate that scShaper is able to infer accurate trajectories for a variety of trigonometric trajectories, including many for which the commonly used principal curves method fails. A comprehensive benchmarking with state-of-the-art methods revealed that scShaper achieved superior accuracy of the cell ordering and, in particular, the differentially expressed genes. Moreover, scShaper is a fast method with few hyperparameters, making it a promising alternative to the principal curves method for linear pseudotemporal ordering. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: scShaper is available as an R package at https://github.com/elolab/scshaper. The test data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5734488. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Multi-omics approach identifies novel age-, time- and treatment-related immunopathological signatures in MIS-C and pediatric COVID-19

Pediatric COVID-19 (pCOVID-19) is rarely severe, however a minority of SARS-CoV-2-infected children may develop MIS-C, a multisystem inflammatory syndrome with significant morbidity. In this longitudinal multi-institutional study, we used multi-omics to identify novel time- and treatment-related immunopathological signatures in children with COVID-19 (n=105) and MIS-C (n=76). pCOVID-19 was characterized by enhanced type I IFN responses, and MIS-C by type II IFN- and NF-{kappa}B dependent responses, matrisome activation, and increased levels of Spike protein. Reduced levels of IL-33 in pCOVID-19, and of CCL22 in MIS-C suggested suppression of Th2 responses. Expansion of TRBV11-2 T-cell clonotypes in MIS-C was associated with inflammation and signatures of T-cell activation, and was reversed by glucocorticoids. The association of MIS-C with the combination of HLA A*02, B*35, C*04 alleles suggests genetic susceptibility. MIS-C B cells showed higher mutation load. Use of IVIG was identified as a confounding factor in the interpretation of autoantibody levels.