Ecology and abundance of a relict population of the bush cricket Saga pedo in the Northern Apennines, Italy.

The expansion of forest cover and intensification of agriculture represent the main threats to the bush cricket Saga pedo, currently listed as Vulnerable globally by the IUCN and included in Annex IV of the European Union Habitats Directive. Gathering information on its ecology and population size is challenging due to its low abundance and localized distribution. Additionally, the elusive and cryptic behavior of this species reduces the likelihood of its detection, potentially resulting in population underestimations. Thus, in this study, we aimed to (1) estimate S. pedo population size in relation to environmental variables and prey availability and (2) predict abundance of S. pedo in our study area for future monitoring in nearby territories. We found that the population of S. pedo in our study area consists of 197 (±115) individuals with a detection probability of 21.01% (±11.09). Detection probability of S. pedo further decreases on windy days. Moreover, we found that the investigated population of S. pedo occupies suboptimal areas, as highlighted not only by the predicted abundances but also by the association between S. pedo and other subfamilies of orthoptera that are ecologically very distant from our target species and mostly linked to mesophilic biotopes. Most of the individuals we observed are concentrated in small clearings completely within wooded matrices and therefore isolated from each other. Based on our results, it is possible that forest expansion toward open meadows represents the main threat to this population, transforming the clearings and xeric meadows (to which S. pedo is linked) into small and fragmented patches that are suboptimal and insufficient to host viable populations.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Effects of natural and seminatural elements on the composition and dispersion of carabid beetles inhabiting an agroecosystem in Northern Italy.

The natural and seminatural components of agricultural landscapes play a key role in maintaining a high level of biodiversity. Being the Po Valley one of the most human-dominated and intensively cultivated landscapes in Europe, we investigated the effect of no-crop habitats on carabid richness and composition and evaluated the role of tree row as corridor for forest carabid dispersion. Carabids were sampled with 70 pitfall traps arranged in 35 sampling plots along three parallel transects (80, 100, and 140 m long) and encompassing five different habitats: tree row, tree row edge, grassland, forest edge, and forest. We found 5,615 individuals belonging to 55 species. Despite the similarity in species richness, all the habitats investigated showed a peculiar and distinct species assemblage. The main distinction was between the "open habitat" cluster composed of grassland and tree row edge and the "forest" cluster composed of forest, tree row, and forest edge. We found that forest species are able to penetrate the grassland matrix up to 30 m from the forest edge and that a distance of no more than 60 m between tree row and forest can allow the passage of up to 50% of the forest species. Beyond this distance, the grassland matrix becomes a barrier, preventing them from reaching other suitable habitats. Our findings confirm the importance of maintaining different types of natural habitats to significantly increase biodiversity in an intensively cultivated agroecosystem and demonstrated the role of linear elements as a corridor and "stepping stones" for many forest species.

Observer-oriented approach improves species distribution models from citizen science data.

Citizen science platforms are increasingly growing, and, storing a huge amount of data on species locations, they provide researchers with essential information to develop sound strategies for species conservation. However, the lack of information on surveyed sites (i.e., where the observers did not record the target species) and sampling effort (e.g., the number of surveys at a given site, by how many observers, and for how much time) strongly limit the use of citizen science data. Thus, we examined the advantage of using an observer-oriented approach (i.e., considering occurrences of species other than the target species collected by the observers of the target species as pseudo-absences and additional predictors relative to the total number of observations, observers, and days in which locations were collected in a given sampling unit, as proxies of sampling effort) to develop species distribution models. Specifically, we considered 15 mammal species occurring in Italy and compared the predictive accuracy of the ensemble predictions of nine species distribution models carried out considering random pseudo-absences versus observer-oriented approach. Through cross-validations, we found that the observer-oriented approach improved species distribution models, providing a higher predictive accuracy than random pseudo-absences. Our results showed that species distribution modeling developed using pseudo-absences derived citizen science data outperform those carried out using random pseudo-absences and thus improve the capacity of species distribution models to accurately predict the geographic range of species when deriving robust surrogate of sampling effort.

Determinants and constraints of feather growth.

During the periodic moult of the plumage of birds, a fast regrowth of feathers would shorten the time of reduced plumage functionality. However, it has long been known that feather growth-rate is limited and that long feathers take disproportionally longer to grow than small feathers, which has severe consequences on moult duration and the completeness of moult in large birds. The reasons for the limitations of feather-growth must be related to the size and/or functions of the feather follicle, but are largely unknown. Here we measured the size of the feather follicle (taking calamus width as a proxy) and related it to parameters of feather growth (feather growth-rate by mass and by length) and feather structure (feather length, mass, massiveness [mass of feather material per mm feather-length]). We used three independent datasets which allowed for interspecific analyses, and for intraspecific comparisons of differently structured feathers within the framework of biological scaling. We found that the cross-sectional area of the calamus (as a proxy of feather follicle size) was directly proportional to feather growth-rate by mass. Hence, factors acting at a two-dimensional scale (possibly nutrient supply to the growing feather) determines feather growth rate by mass, rather than the linear arrangement of stem cells (in a circular configuration) as had previously been assumed. Feather follicle size was correlated with both feather length and massiveness, hence it seems to be adapted to some extent to feather structure. Feather growth-rate by length was dependent on both the feather material produced per unit time (growth-rate by mass) and the amount of material deposited per unit feather-length. Follicle size not only determines feather growth-rate by mass, but also directly the structural design (shape, number of barbs, etc.) of a feather. Therefore, feather growth-rate is severely constrained by the requirements imposed by the structural feather design.

Integrating dynamic environmental predictors and species occurrences: Toward true dynamic species distribution models.

While biological distributions are not static and change/evolve through space and time, nonstationarity of climatic and land-use conditions is frequently neglected in species distribution models. Even recent techniques accounting for spatiotemporal variation of species occurrence basically consider the environmental predictors as static; specifically, in most studies using species distribution models, predictor values are averaged over a 50- or 30-year time period. This could lead to a strong bias due to monthly/annual variation between the climatic conditions in which species' locations were recorded and those used to develop species distribution models or even a complete mismatch if locations have been recorded more recently. Moreover, the impact of land-use change has only recently begun to be fully explored in species distribution models, but again without considering year-specific values. Excluding dynamic climate and land-use predictors could provide misleading estimation of species distribution. In recent years, however, open-access spatially explicit databases that provide high-resolution monthly and annual variation in climate (for the period 1901-2016) and land-use (for the period 1992-2015) conditions at a global scale have become available. Combining species locations collected in a given month of a given year with the relative climatic and land-use predictors derived from these datasets would thus lead to the development of true dynamic species distribution models (D-SDMs), improving predictive accuracy and avoiding mismatch between species locations and predictor variables. Thus, we strongly encourage modelers to develop D-SDMs using month- and year-specific climatic data as well as year-specific land-use data that match the period in which species data were collected.

Combining Bayesian genetic clustering and ecological niche modeling: Insights into wolf intraspecific genetic structure.

The distribution of intraspecific genetic variation and how it relates to environmental factors is of increasing interest to researchers in macroecology and biogeography. Recent studies investigated the relationships between the environment and patterns of intraspecific genetic variation across species ranges but only few rigorously tested the relation between genetic groups and their ecological niches. We quantified the relationship of genetic differentiation (F ST) and the overlap of ecological niches (as measured by n-dimensional hypervolumes) among genetic groups resulting from spatial Bayesian genetic clustering in the wolf (Canis lupus) in the Italian peninsula. Within the Italian wolf population, four genetic clusters were detected, and these clusters showed different ecological niches. Moreover, different wolf clusters were significantly related to differences in land cover and human disturbance features. Such differences in the ecological niches of genetic clusters should be interpreted in light of neutral processes that hinder movement, dispersal, and gene flow among the genetic clusters, in order to not prematurely assume any selective or adaptive processes. In the present study, we found that both the plasticity of wolves-a habitat generalist-to cope with different environmental conditions and the occurrence of barriers that limit gene flow lead to the formation of genetic intraspecific genetic clusters and their distinct ecological niches.

Italian wolves (Canis lupus italicus Altobello, 1921) and molecular detection of taeniids in the Foreste Casentinesi National Park, Northern Italian Apennines.

After centuries of massive decline, the recovery of the wolf (Canis lupus italicus) in Italy is a typical conservation success story. To learn more about the possible role of parasites in the wolves' individual and population health and conservation we used non-invasive molecular approaches on fecal samples to identify individual wolves, pack membership, and the taeniids present, some of which are zoonotic. A total of 130 specimens belonging to 54 wolves from eight packs were collected and examined. Taeniid eggs were isolated using a sieving/flotation technique, and the species level was identified by PCR (gene target: 12S rRNA and nad1). Taeniid prevalence was 40.7% for Taenia hydatigena, 22.2% for T. krabbei, 1.8% for T. polyachanta and 5.5% for Echinococcus granulosus. The prevalence of E. granulosus is discussed. Our results show that the taeniid fauna found in wolves from the Foreste Casentinesi National Park is comparable to that described for other domestic and wild Italian canids and provides insights into the wolves' diet and their relationship with the environment.

Expert-based versus habitat-suitability models to develop resistance surfaces in landscape genetics.

Landscape genetics aims to investigate functional connectivity among wild populations by evaluating the impact of landscape features on gene flow. Genetic distances among populations or individuals are generally better explained by least-cost path (LCP) distances derived from resistance surfaces than by simple Euclidean distances. Resistance surfaces reflect the cost for an organism to move through particular landscape elements. However, determining the effects of landscape types on movements is challenging. Because of a general lack of empirical data on movements, resistance surfaces mostly rely on expert knowledge. Habitat-suitability models potentially provide a more objective method to estimate resistance surfaces than expert opinions, but they have rarely been applied in landscape genetics so far. We compared LCP distances based on expert knowledge with LCP distances derived from habitat-suitability models to evaluate their performance in landscape genetics. We related all LCP distances to genetic distances in linear mixed effect models on an empirical data set of wolves (Canis lupus) from Italy. All LCP distances showed highly significant (P ≤ 0.0001) standardized ß coefficients and R 2 values, but LCPs from habitat-suitability models generally showed higher values than those resulting from expert knowledge. Moreover, all LCP distances better explained genetic distances than Euclidean distances, irrespective of the approaches used. Considering our results, we encourage researchers in landscape genetics to use resistance surfaces based on habitat suitability which performed better than expert-based LCPs in explaining patterns of gene flow and functional connectivity.

Modelling the Distribution of Forest-Dependent Species in Human-Dominated Landscapes: Patterns for the Pine Marten in Intensively Cultivated Lowlands.

In recent years, the "forest-specialist" pine marten Martes martes has been reported to also occur also in largely fragmented, lowland landscapes of north-western Italy. The colonization of such an apparently unsuitable area provided the opportunity for investigating pine marten ecological requirements and predicting its potential south- and eastwards expansion. We collected available pine marten occurrence data in the flood plain of the River Po (N Italy) and relate them to 11 environmental variables by developing nine Species Distribution Models. To account for inter-model variability we used average ensemble predictions (EP). EP predicted a total of 482 suitable patches (8.31% of the total study area) for the pine marten. The main factors driving pine marten occurrence in the western River Po plain were the distance from watercourses and the distance from woods. EP suggested that the pine marten may further expand in the western lowland, whilst the negligible residual wood cover of large areas in the central and eastern plain makes the habitat unsuitable for the pine marten, except for some riparian corridors and the pine wood patches bordering the Adriatic coast. Based on our results, conservation strategies should seek to preserve remnant forest patches and enhance the functional connectivity provided by riparian corridors.

Choosy Wolves? Heterozygote Advantage But No Evidence of MHC-Based Disassortative Mating.

A variety of nonrandom mate choice strategies, including disassortative mating, are used by vertebrate species to avoid inbreeding, maintain heterozygosity and increase fitness. Disassortative mating may be mediated by the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), an important gene cluster controlling immune responses to pathogens. We investigated the patterns of mate choice in 26 wild-living breeding pairs of gray wolf (Canis lupus) that were identified through noninvasive genetic methods and genotyped at 3 MHC class II and 12 autosomal microsatellite (STR) loci. We tested for deviations from random mating and evaluated the covariance of genetic variables at functional and STR markers with fitness proxies deduced from pedigree reconstructions. Results did not show evidences of MHC-based disassortative mating. Rather we found a higher peptide similarity between mates at MHC loci as compared with random expectations. Fitness values were positively correlated with heterozygosity of the breeders at both MHC and STR loci, whereas they decreased with relatedness at STRs. These findings may indicate fitness advantages for breeders that, while avoiding highly related mates, are more similar at the MHC and have high levels of heterozygosity overall. Such a pattern of MHC-assortative mating may reflect local coadaptation of the breeders, while a reduction in genetic diversity may be balanced by heterozygote advantages.

The occurrence of taeniids of wolves in Liguria (northern Italy).

Canids are definitive hosts of Taenia and Echinococcus species, which infect a variety of mammals as intermediate or accidental hosts including humans. Parasite transmission is based on domestic, semi-domestic and wildlife cycles; however, little is known of the epidemiological significance of wild large definitive hosts such as the wolf. In this study, 179 scats of wolves (Canis lupus italicus) collected throughout the Italian region of Liguria were analyzed for the detection of taeniid infection. Taeniid egg isolation was performed using a sieving/flotation technique, and the species level was identified by PCR (gene target: 12S rRNA and nad 1) followed by sequence analyses. Based on sequence homologies of ≥99%, Taenia hydatigena was identified in 19.6%, Taenia krabbei in 4.5%, Taenia ovis in 2.2%, Taenia crassiceps in 0.6%, Hydatigera taeniaeformis in 0.6% and Echinococcus granulosus in 5.6% of the samples. According to these results, Canis lupus italicus can be considered as involved in the wild (including cervids and rodents) and semi-domestic cycles (including sheep and goats) of taeniids in this area.