The Impact of Regeneration and Climate Adaptations of Urban Green-Blue Assets on All-Cause Mortality: A 17-Year Longitudinal Study.

Urban waterways are underutilised assets, which can provide benefits ranging from climate-change mitigation and adaptation (e.g., reducing flood risks) to promoting health and well-being in urban settings. Indeed, urban waterways provide green and blue spaces, which have increasingly been associated with health benefits. The present observational study used a unique 17-year longitudinal natural experiment of canal regeneration from complete closure and dereliction in North Glasgow in Scotland, U.K. to explore the impact of green and blue canal assets on all-cause mortality as a widely used indicator of general health and health inequalities. Official data on deaths and socioeconomic deprivation for small areas (data zones) for the period 2001-2017 were analysed. Distances between data zone population-weighted centroids to the canal were calculated to create three 500 m distance buffers. Spatiotemporal associations between proximity to the canal and mortality were estimated using linear mixed models, unadjusted and adjusted for small-area measures of deprivation. The results showed an overall decrease in mortality over time (ß = -0.032, 95% confidence interval (CI) [-0.046, -0.017]) with a closing of the gap in mortality between less and more affluent areas. The annual rate of decrease in mortality rates was largest in the 0-500 m buffer zone closest to the canal (-3.12%, 95% CI [-4.50, -1.73]), with smaller decreases found in buffer zones further removed from the canal (500-1000 m: -3.01%, 95% CI [-6.52, 0.62]), and 1000-1500 m: -1.23%, 95% CI [-5.01, 2.71]). A similar pattern of results was found following adjustment for deprivation. The findings support the notion that regeneration of disused blue and green assets and climate adaptions can have a positive impact on health and health inequalities. Future studies are now needed using larger samples of individual-level data, including environmental, socioeconomic, and health variables to ascertain which specific elements of regeneration are the most effective in promoting health and health equity.

Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.

Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming.

Committed warming describes how much future warming can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined in terms of the level of warming above the present for an abrupt halt of emissions. Owing to socioeconomic constraints, this situation is unlikely, so we focus on the committed warming from present-day fossil fuel assets. Here we show that if carbon-intensive infrastructure is phased out at the end of its design lifetime from the end of 2018, there is a 64% chance that peak global mean temperature rise remains below 1.5 °C. Delaying mitigation until 2030 considerably reduces the likelihood that 1.5 °C would be attainable even if the rate of fossil fuel retirement was accelerated. Although the challenges laid out by the Paris Agreement are daunting, we indicate 1.5 °C remains possible and is attainable with ambitious and immediate emission reduction across all sectors.

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement's aim of 1.5 °C warming.

The United Nations' Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a '1.5 °C warmer world' may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society's mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions.

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or 'effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Acanthamoeba polyphaga resuscitates viable non-culturable Legionella pneumophila after disinfection.

Amoebae are the natural hosts for Legionella pneumophila and play essential roles in bacterial ecology and infectivity to humans. When L. pneumophila colonizes an aquatic installation, it can persist for years despite repeated treatments with disinfectants. We hypothesized that freshwater amoebae play an important role in bacterial resistance to disinfectants, and in subsequent resuscitation of viable non-culturable (VNC) L. pneumophila that results in re-emergence of the disease-causing strain in the disinfected water source. Our work showed that in the absence of Acanthamoeba polyphaga, seven L. pneumophila strains became non-culturable after treatment by 256 p.p.m. of sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl). In contrast, intracellular L. pneumophila within A. polyphaga was resistant to 1024 p.p.m. of NaOCl. In addition, L. pneumophila-infected A. polyphaga exhibited increased resistance to NaOCl. When chlorine-sterilized water samples were co-cultured with A. polyphaga, the non-culturable L. pneumophila were resuscitated and proliferated robustly within A. polyphaga. Upon treatment by NaOCl, uninfected amoebae differentiated into cysts within 48 h. In contrast, L. pneumophila-infected A. polyphaga failed to differentiate into cysts, and L. pneumophila was never detected in cysts of A. polyphaga. We conclude that amoebic trophozoites protect intracellular L. pneumophila from eradication by NaOCl, and play an essential role in resuscitation of VNC L. pneumophila in NaOCl-disinfected water sources. Intracellular L. pneumophila within trophozoites of A. polyphaga block encystation of the amoebae, and the resistance of both organisms to NaOCl is enhanced. To ensure long-term eradication and complete loss of the VNC state of L. pneumophila, we recommend that Legionella-protozoa co-culture should be an important tool to ensure complete loss of the VNC state of L. pneumophila.