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1.
Ecol Evol ; 14(5): e11262, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38774147

RESUMO

Estimating distributions for cryptic and highly range-restricted species induces unique challenges for species distribution modeling. In particular, bioclimatic covariates that are typically used to model species ranges at regional and continental scales may not show strong variation at scales of 100s and 10s of meters. This limits both the likelihood and usefulness of correlated occurrence to data typically used in distribution models. Here, we present analyses of species distributions, at 100 × 100 m resolution, for a highly range restricted salamander species (Shenandoah salamander, Plethodon shenandoah) and a closely related congener (red-backed salamander, Plethodon cinereus). We combined data across multiple survey types, account for seasonal variation in availability of our target species, and control for repeated surveys at locations- all typical challenges in range-scale monitoring datasets. We fit distribution models using generalized additive models that account for spatial covariates as well as unexplained spatial variation and spatial uncertainty. Our model accommodates different survey protocols using offsets and incorporates temporal variation in detection and availability resulting from survey-specific variation in temperature and precipitation. Our spatial random effect was crucial in identifying small-scale differences in the occurrence of each species and provides cell-specific estimates of uncertainty in the density of salamanders across the range. Counts of both species were seen to increase in the 3 days following a precipitation event. However, P. cinereus were observed even in extremely wet conditions, while surface activity of P. shenandoah was associated with a more narrow range. Our results demonstrate how a flexible analytical approach improves estimates of both distribution and uncertainty, and identify key abiotic relationships, even at small spatial scales and when scales of empirical data are mismatched. While our approach is especially valuable for species with small ranges, controlling for spatial autocorrelation, estimating spatial uncertainty, and incorporating survey-specific information in estimates can improve the reliability of distribution models in general.

2.
Environ Sci Technol ; 57(45): 17511-17521, 2023 11 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37902062

RESUMO

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic contaminant that has been mobilized and distributed worldwide and is a threat to many wildlife species. Amphibians are facing unprecedented global declines due to many threats including contaminants. While the biphasic life history of many amphibians creates a potential nexus for methylmercury (MeHg) exposure in aquatic habitats and subsequent health effects, the broad-scale distribution of MeHg exposure in amphibians remains unknown. We used nonlethal sampling to assess MeHg bioaccumulation in 3,241 juvenile and adult amphibians during 2017-2021. We sampled 26 populations (14 species) across 11 states in the United States, including several imperiled species that could not have been sampled by traditional lethal methods. We examined whether life history traits of species and whether the concentration of total mercury in sediment or dragonflies could be used as indicators of MeHg bioaccumulation in amphibians. Methylmercury contamination was widespread, with a 33-fold difference in concentrations across sites. Variation among years and clustered subsites was less than variation across sites. Life history characteristics such as size, sex, and whether the amphibian was a frog, toad, newt, or other salamander were the factors most strongly associated with bioaccumulation. Total Hg in dragonflies was a reliable indicator of bioaccumulation of MeHg in amphibians (R2 ≥ 0.67), whereas total Hg in sediment was not (R2 ≤ 0.04). Our study, the largest broad-scale assessment of MeHg bioaccumulation in amphibians, highlights methodological advances that allow for nonlethal sampling of rare species and reveals immense variation among species, life histories, and sites. Our findings can help identify sensitive populations and provide environmentally relevant concentrations for future studies to better quantify the potential threats of MeHg to amphibians.


Assuntos
Mercúrio , Compostos de Metilmercúrio , Odonatos , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Animais , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise , Mercúrio/análise , Anfíbios , Monitoramento Ambiental
3.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(28): e2221961120, 2023 07 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37399376

RESUMO

Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive. Using data from a continental-scale bird-banding program, we assess the impact of phenological dynamics on avian breeding productivity in 41 species of migratory and resident North American birds breeding in and around forested areas. We find strong evidence for a phenological optimum where breeding productivity decreases in years with both particularly early or late phenology and when breeding occurs early or late relative to local vegetation phenology. Moreover, we demonstrate that landbird breeding phenology did not keep pace with shifts in the timing of vegetation green-up over a recent 18-y period, even though avian breeding phenology has tracked green-up with greater sensitivity than arrival for migratory species. Species whose breeding phenology more closely tracked green-up tend to migrate shorter distances (or are resident over the entire year) and breed earlier in the season. These results showcase the broadest-scale evidence yet of the demographic impacts of phenological change. Future climate change-associated phenological shifts will likely result in a decrease in breeding productivity for most species, given that bird breeding phenology is failing to keep pace with climate change.


Assuntos
Aves Canoras , Animais , Mudança Climática , Estações do Ano , América do Norte , Demografia
4.
J Anim Ecol ; 92(6): 1135-1148, 2023 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36527172

RESUMO

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009-2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Áreas Alagadas , Animais , Biota , Animais Selvagens , Salinidade
5.
Proc Biol Sci ; 289(1967): 20212187, 2022 01 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35078358

RESUMO

Changing climates and severe weather events can affect population viability. Individuals need to buffer such negative fitness consequences through physiological plasticity. Whether certain life-history strategies are more conducive to surviving changing climates is unknown, but theory predicts that strategies prioritizing maintenance and survival over current reproduction should be better able to withstand such change. We tested this hypothesis in a meta-population of garter snakes having naturally occurring variation in life-history strategies. We tested whether slow pace-of-life (POL) animals, that prioritize survival over reproduction, are more resilient than fast POL animals as measured by several physiological biomarkers. From 2006 to 2019, which included two multi-year droughts, baseline and stress-induced reactivity of plasma corticosterone and glucose varied annually with directionalities consistent with life-history theory. Slow POL animals exhibited higher baseline corticosterone and lower baseline glucose, relative to fast POL animals. These patterns were also observed in stress-induced measures; thus, reactivity was equivalent between ecotypes. However, in drought years, measures of corticosterone did not differ between different life histories. Immune cell distribution showed annual variation independent of drought or life history. These persistent physiological patterns form a backdrop to several extirpations of fast POL populations, suggesting a limited physiological toolkit to surviving periods of extreme drought.


Assuntos
Colubridae , Características de História de Vida , Animais , Colubridae/fisiologia , Corticosterona , Secas , Glucose , Serpentes/fisiologia
7.
Conserv Biol ; 36(2): e13832, 2022 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34476833

RESUMO

Species distribution data are an essential biodiversity variable requiring robust monitoring to inform wildlife conservation. Yet, such data remain inherently sparse because of the logistical challenges of monitoring biodiversity across broad geographic extents. Surveys of people knowledgeable about the occurrence of wildlife provide an opportunity to evaluate species distributions and the ecology of wildlife communities across large spatial scales. We analyzed detection histories of 30 vertebrate species across the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot in India, obtained from a large-scale interview survey of 2318 people who live and work in the forests of this region. We developed a multispecies occupancy model that simultaneously corrected for false-negative (non-detection) and false-positive (misidentification) errors that interview surveys can be prone to. Using this model, we integrated data across species in composite analyses of the responses of functional species groups (based on disturbance tolerance, diet, and body mass traits) to spatial variation in environmental variables, protection, and anthropogenic pressures. We observed a positive association between forest cover and the occurrence of species with low tolerance of human disturbance. Protected areas were associated with higher occurrence for species across different functional groups compared with unprotected lands. We also observed the occurrence of species with low disturbance tolerance, herbivores, and large-bodied species was negatively associated with developmental pressures, such as human settlements, energy production and mining, and demographic pressures, such as biological resource extraction. For the conservation of threatened vertebrates, our work underscores the importance of maintaining forest cover and reducing deforestation within and outside protected areas, respectively. In addition, mitigating a suite of pervasive human pressures is also crucial for wildlife conservation in one of the world's most densely populated biodiversity hotspots.


Uso de Encuestas y Modelos de Ocupación Multiespecies para Orientar la Conservación de Vertebrados Resumen Los datos de distribución de especies son una variable esencial de la biodiversidad que requieren de un monitoreo sólido para orientar la conservación de la fauna. Aun así, dichos datos permanecen inherentemente escasos debido a los obstáculos logísticos del monitoreo de la biodiversidad a lo largo de extensiones geográficas generalizadas. Las encuestas realizadas a personas conocedoras de la incidencia de fauna proporcionan una oportunidad para evaluar la distribución de las especies y la ecología de las comunidades de fauna en escalas espaciales grandes. Analizamos las historias de detección de 30 especies de vertebrados en los Ghats Occidentales de la India obtenidos a partir de una encuesta a gran escala realizada por entrevistas a 2318 personas que viven y trabajan en los bosques de esta región. Desarrollamos un modelo de ocupación multiespecies que corrigió simultáneamente los errores falsos negativos (no detección) y los falsos positivos (identificación correcta) a los que están propensos las encuestas por entrevista. Con este modelo, integramos los datos de todas las especies a un análisis compuesto de las respuestas de los grupos funcionales de especies (con base en la tolerancia a la perturbación, dieta y características de masa corporal) para la variación espacial en las variables ambientales, protección y presiones antropogénicas. Observamos una asociación positiva entre la incidencia de especies con la baja tolerancia a la perturbación humana y a la cobertura forestal. Las áreas protegidas estuvieron asociadas con una incidencia mayor para las especies ubicadas en diferentes grupos funcionales comparadas con las áreas desprotegidas. También observamos que la incidencia de especies con una tolerancia baja a las perturbaciones, herbívoros y especies de mayor tamaño estaba asociada negativamente con las presiones de desarrollo, como los asentamientos humanos, la producción de energías y minería, y las presiones demográficas, como la extracción de recursos biológicos. Para la conservación de vertebrados amenazados, nuestro trabajo hace hincapié en la importancia de mantener la cobertura forestal y reducir la deforestación dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas, respectivamente. Además, la mitigación de un conjunto de presiones humanas dominantes también es crucial para la conservación de la naturaleza en uno de los puntos calientes de biodiversidad con una de las mayores densidades poblacionales del mundo.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Biodiversidade , Florestas , Humanos , Vertebrados
8.
Evolution ; 76(2): 346-356, 2022 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34878663

RESUMO

Sex-related differences in mortality are widespread in the animal kingdom. Although studies have shown that sex determination systems might drive lifespan evolution, sex chromosome influence on aging rates have not been investigated so far, likely due to an apparent lack of demographic data from clades including both XY (with heterogametic males) and ZW (heterogametic females) systems. Taking advantage of a unique collection of capture-recapture datasets in amphibians, a vertebrate group where XY and ZW systems have repeatedly evolved over the past 200 million years, we examined whether sex heterogamy can predict sex differences in aging rates and lifespans. We showed that the strength and direction of sex differences in aging rates (and not lifespan) differ between XY and ZW systems. Sex-specific variation in aging rates was moderate within each system, but aging rates tended to be consistently higher in the heterogametic sex. This led to small but detectable effects of sex chromosome system on sex differences in aging rates in our models. Although preliminary, our results suggest that exposed recessive deleterious mutations on the X/Z chromosome (the "unguarded X/Z effect") or repeat-rich Y/W chromosome (the "toxic Y/W effect") could accelerate aging in the heterogametic sex in some vertebrate clades.


Assuntos
Caracteres Sexuais , Cromossomos Sexuais , Envelhecimento/genética , Anfíbios/genética , Animais , Feminino , Masculino , Processos de Determinação Sexual , Cromossomo Y
9.
Ecol Evol ; 11(7): 3239-3250, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33841780

RESUMO

Changing environments result in alterations at all levels of biological organization, from genetics to physiology to demography. The increasing frequency of droughts worldwide is associated with higher temperatures and reduced precipitation that can impact population persistence via effects on individual immune function and survival.We examined the effects of annual climate variation on immunity in two sympatric species of garter snakes from four populations in California over a seven-year period that included the record-breaking drought.We examined three indices of innate immunity: bactericidal competence (BC), natural antibodies (NABs), and complement-mediated lysis (CL).Precipitation was the only climatic variable explaining variation in immune function: spring precipitation of the current year was positively correlated to Thamnophis sirtalis BC and NABs, whereas spring precipitation of the previous year was positively correlated to T. elegans BC and NABs. This suggests that T. elegans experiences a physiological time-lag in response to reduced precipitation, which may reflect lack of capital for investment in immunity in the year following a dry year.In general, our findings demonstrate compelling evidence that climate can influence wild populations through effects on physiological processes, suggesting that physiological indices such as these may offer valuable opportunities for monitoring the effects of climate.

10.
Nat Ecol Evol ; 5(7): 987-994, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33927370

RESUMO

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , Aves , Animais , Mudança Climática , Fenótipo , Estações do Ano
11.
Ecology ; 102(5): e03315, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33630306

RESUMO

First-order dynamic occupancy models (FODOMs) are a class of state-space model in which the true state (occurrence) is observed imperfectly. An important assumption of FODOMs is that site dynamics only depend on the current state and that variations in dynamic processes are adequately captured with covariates or random effects. However, it is often difficult to understand and/or measure the covariates that generate ecological data, which are typically spatiotemporally correlated. Consequently, the non-independent error structure of correlated data causes underestimation of parameter uncertainty and poor ecological inference. Here, we extend the FODOM framework with a second-order Markov process to accommodate site memory when covariates are not available. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inference about site occupancy, colonization, extinction, turnover, and detection probabilities. We present a series of simulations to illustrate the data requirements and model performance. We then applied our modeling framework to 13 yr of data from an amphibian community in southern Arizona, USA. In this analysis, we found residual temporal autocorrelation of population processes for most species, even after accounting for long-term drought dynamics. Our approach represents a valuable advance in obtaining inference on population dynamics, especially as they relate to metapopulations.


Assuntos
Secas , Modelos Biológicos , Arizona , Ecossistema , Dinâmica Populacional
12.
J Anim Ecol ; 90(3): 685-697, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33300621

RESUMO

Fragmentation within urbanized environments often leads to a loss of native species diversity; however, variation exists in responses among-species and among-populations within species. We aimed to identify patterns in species biogeography in an urbanized landscape to understand anthropogenic effects on vertebrate communities and identify species that are more sensitive or resilient to landscape change. We investigated patterns in species richness and species responses to fragmentation in southern Californian small vertebrate communities using multispecies occupancy models and determined factors associated with overall commonness and sensitivity to patch size for 45 small vertebrate species both among and within remaining non-developed patches. In general, smaller patches had fewer species, with amphibian species richness being particularly sensitive to patch size effects. Mammals were generally more common, occurring both in a greater proportion of patches and a higher proportion of the sites within occupied patches. Alternatively, amphibians were generally restricted to larger patches but were more ubiquitous within smaller patches when occupied. Species range size was positively correlated with how common a species was across and within patches, even when controlling for only patches that fell within a species' range. We found sensitivity to patch size was greater for more fecund species and depended on where the patch occurred within a species' range. While all taxa were more likely to occur in patches in the warmer portions of their ranges, amphibians and mammals were more sensitive to fragmentation in these warmer areas as compared to the rest of their ranges. Similarly, amphibians occurred at a smaller proportion of sites within patches in drier portions of their ranges. Mammals occurred at a higher proportion of sites that were also in drier portions of their range while reptiles did not differ in their sensitivity to patch size by range position. We demonstrate that taxonomy, life history, range size and range position can predict commonness and sensitivity of species across this highly fragmented yet biodiverse landscape. The impacts of fragmentation on species communities within an urban landscape depend on scale, with differences emerging among and within species and populations.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Animais , Mamíferos
13.
Funct Ecol ; 34(1): 38-54, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32921868

RESUMO

1. The field of comparative aging biology has greatly expanded in the past 20 years. Longitudinal studies of populations of reptiles with a range of maximum lifespans have accumulated and been analyzed for evidence of mortality senescence and reproductive decline. While not as well represented in studies of amniote senescence, reptiles have been the subjects of many recent demographic and mechanistic studies of the biology of aging. 2. We review recent literature on reptile demographic senescence, mechanisms of senescence, and identify unanswered questions. Given the ecophysiological and demographic diversity of reptiles, what is the expected range of reptile senescence rates? Are known mechanisms of aging in reptiles consistent with canonical hallmarks of aging in model systems? What are the knowledge gaps in our understanding of reptile aging? 3. We find ample evidence of increasing mortality with advancing age in many reptiles. Testudines stand out as slower aging than other orders, but data on crocodilians and tuatara are sparse. Sex-specific analyses are generally not available. Studies of female reproduction suggest that reptiles are less likely to have reproductive decline with advancing age than mammals. 4. Reptiles share many physiological and molecular pathways of aging with mammals, birds, and laboratory model organisms. Adaptations related to stress physiology coupled with reptilian ectothermy suggest novel comparisons and contrasts that can be made with canonical aging phenotypes in mammals. These include stem cell and regeneration biology, homeostatic mechanisms, IIS/TOR signaling, and DNA repair. 5. To overcome challenges to the study of reptile aging, we recommend extending and expanding long-term monitoring of reptile populations, developing reptile cell lines to aid cellular biology, conducting more comparative studies of reptile morphology and physiology sampled along relevant life-history axes, and sequencing more reptile genomes for comparative genomics. Given the diversity of reptile life histories and adaptations, achieving these directives will likely greatly benefit all aging biology.

14.
Curr Biol ; 29(14): R681-R682, 2019 07 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31336082

RESUMO

Protected areas are critical to conservation efforts in the face of rapid biodiversity declines [1]. Yet the resources for conservation are often limited and shared amongst many competing priorities [2]. As a consequence, even basic monitoring surveys are absent within most protected areas [3]. Although a range of wildlife monitoring methods exist, considerable focused survey effort is often required to yield accurate and precise estimates [4]. This makes monitoring difficult to sustain or replicate, limiting access to the data required for evidence-based conservation decisions. Citizen-scientists have been proposed as an important complement to the finite resources available for basic monitoring within protected areas [5]; however, the full potential of this approach has yet to be realised. Wildlife tourists and guides are especially focussed on encountering and photographing fauna and flora, yet the data collected in these efforts is rarely harnessed for conservation monitoring within protected areas. A detailed understanding of photographic tourism's potential role in wildlife monitoring has been lacking, but is essential for the development of new tools to harness the data being collected through tourism. Here, we demonstrate that tourist-contributed data can aid wildlife monitoring in protected areas by providing population estimates of large carnivores comparable to those from traditional survey methods. Our approach could capitalize upon the immense number of wildlife photographs being taken daily as part of the global > 30-billion USD, wildlife-based tourism industry.


Assuntos
Animais Selvagens , Ciência do Cidadão , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Fotografação , Viagem , Animais
15.
Ecology ; 100(6): e02709, 2019 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30933314

RESUMO

Advances in species distribution modeling continue to be driven by a need to predict species responses to environmental change coupled with increasing data availability. Recent work has focused on development of methods that integrate multiple streams of data to model species distributions. Combining sources of information increases spatial coverage and can improve accuracy in estimates of species distributions. However, when fusing multiple streams of data, the temporal and spatial resolutions of data sources may be mismatched. This occurs when data sources have fluctuating geographic coverage, varying spatial scales and resolutions, and differing sources of bias and sparsity. It is well documented in the spatial statistics literature that ignoring the misalignment of different data sources will result in bias in both the point estimates and uncertainty. This will ultimately lead to inaccurate predictions of species distributions. Here, we examine the issue of misaligned data as it relates specifically to integrated species distribution models. We then provide a general solution that builds off work in the statistical literature for the change-of-support problem. Specifically, we leverage spatial correlation and repeat observations at multiple scales to make statistically valid predictions at the ecologically relevant scale of inference. An added feature of the approach is that addressing differences in spatial resolution between data sets can allow for the evaluation and calibration of lesser-quality sources in many instances. Using both simulations and data examples, we highlight the utility of this modeling approach and the consequences of not reconciling misaligned spatial data. We conclude with a brief discussion of the upcoming challenges and obstacles for species distribution modeling via data fusion.

16.
Ecol Lett ; 22(2): 342-353, 2019 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30536594

RESUMO

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.


Assuntos
Aves , Mudança Climática , Extinção Biológica , Animais , Biodiversidade , Demografia , Feminino , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Dinâmica Populacional , Processos Estocásticos
17.
J Wildl Dis ; 55(3): 563-575, 2019 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30566380

RESUMO

Understanding the distribution of pathogens across landscapes and their prevalence within host populations is a common aim of wildlife managers. Despite the need for unbiased estimates of pathogen occurrence and prevalence for planning effective management interventions, many researchers fail to account for imperfect pathogen detection. Instead raw data are often reported, which may lead to ineffective, or even detrimental, management actions. We illustrate the utility of occupancy models for generating unbiased estimates of disease parameters by 1) providing a written tutorial describing how to fit these models in Program PRESENCE and 2) presenting a case study with the pathogen ranavirus. We analyzed ranavirus detection data from a wildlife refuge (Maryland, US) using occupancy modeling, which yields unbiased estimates of pathogen occurrence and prevalence. We found ranavirus prevalence was underestimated by up to 30% if imperfect pathogen detection was ignored. The unbiased estimate of ranavirus prevalence in larval wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus; 0.73) populations was higher than in larval spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum; 0.56) populations. In addition, the odds of detecting ranavirus in tail samples were 6.7 times higher than detecting ranavirus in liver samples. Therefore, tail samples presented a nonlethal sampling method for ranavirus that may be able to detect early (nonsystemic) infections.


Assuntos
Ambystoma/virologia , Ranavirus/isolamento & purificação , Ranidae/virologia , Viroses/veterinária , Animais , Larva/virologia , Maryland/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Viroses/epidemiologia
18.
Nat Commun ; 9(1): 3926, 2018 09 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30254220

RESUMO

Changing climate will impact species' ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.


Assuntos
Anfíbios/fisiologia , Mudança Climática , Clima , Ecossistema , Algoritmos , Anfíbios/classificação , Distribuição Animal , Animais , Geografia , Modelos Teóricos , América do Norte , Dinâmica Populacional , Estações do Ano , Especificidade da Espécie , Temperatura
19.
Ecol Lett ; 21(9): 1401-1412, 2018 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30019409

RESUMO

The composition of local mammalian carnivore communities has far-reaching effects on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. To better understand how carnivore communities are structured, we analysed camera trap data for 108 087 trap days across 12 countries spanning five continents. We estimate local probabilities of co-occurrence among 768 species pairs from the order Carnivora and evaluate how shared ecological traits correlate with probabilities of co-occurrence. Within individual study areas, species pairs co-occurred more frequently than expected at random. Co-occurrence probabilities were greatest for species pairs that shared ecological traits including similar body size, temporal activity pattern and diet. However, co-occurrence decreased as compared to other species pairs when the pair included a large-bodied carnivore. Our results suggest that a combination of shared traits and top-down regulation by large carnivores shape local carnivore communities globally.


Assuntos
Carnívoros , Ecologia , Ecossistema , Animais , Simpatria
20.
Ecol Evol ; 8(6): 3330-3340, 2018 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29607028

RESUMO

A thorough understanding of the life cycles underlying the demography of wild species is limited by the difficulty of observing hidden life-history traits, such as embryonic development. Major aspects of embryonic development, such as the rate and timing of development, and maternal-fetal interactions can be critical features of early-life fitness and may impact population trends via effects on individual survival. While information on development in wild snakes and lizards is particularly limited, the repeated evolution of viviparity and diversity of reproductive mode in this clade make it a valuable subject of study. We used field-portable ultrasonography to investigate embryonic development in two sympatric garter snake species, Thamnophis sirtalis and Thamnophis elegans in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. This approach allowed us to examine previously hidden reproductive traits including the timing and annual variation in development and differences in parental investment in young. Both species are viviparous, occupy similar ecological niches, and experience the same annual environmental conditions. We found that T. sirtalis embryos were more developmentally advanced than T. elegans embryos during June of three consecutive years. We also found that eggs increased in volume more substantially across developmental stages in T. elegans than in T. sirtalis, indicating differences in maternal provisioning of embryos via placental transfer of water. These findings shed light on interspecific differences in parental investment and timing of development within the same environmental context and demonstrate the value of field ultrasonography for pursuing questions relating to the evolution of reproductive modes, and the ecology of development.

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