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Large-scale, abrupt ecosystem change in direct response to climate extremes is a critical but poorly documented phenomenon1. Yet, recent increases in climate-induced tree mortality raise concern that some forest ecosystems are on the brink of collapse across wide environmental gradients2,3. Here we assessed climatic and productivity trends across the world's five Mediterranean forest ecosystems from 2000 to 2021 and detected a large-scale, abrupt forest browning and productivity decline in Chile (>90% of the forest in <100 days), responding to a sustained, acute drought. The extreme dry and warm conditions in Chile, unprecedented in the recent history of all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are akin to those projected to arise in the second half of the century4. Long-term recovery of this forest is uncertain given an ongoing decline in regional water balance. This dramatic plummet of forest productivity may be a spyglass to the future for other Mediterranean ecosystems.
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Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Florestas , Árvores/fisiologia , SecasRESUMO
The conservation of forest landscapes is crucial for global climate strategies, and the forest in Tierra del Fuego, located in Patagonia, represents the southernmost example on Earth. These ecosystems are critical for Chile's roadmap toward carbon neutrality. Unfortunately, these ecosystems have been impacted by logging and beaver activities. Currently, the precise contribution of each driver to forest cover and carbon stock loss remains insufficiently quantified, impeding effective policymaking and the implementation of strategies to safeguard and enhance carbon stocks in these ecosystems. In this study, we conducted an assessment of forest carbon stock loss resulting from both logging and beaver activities in Chilean Tierra del Fuego from 1986 to 2019. While beavers have received significant attention for their substantial contribution to forest cover loss (56.1% forest cover, ≈ 1.4 MtC), our findings suggest that logging has nearly equally contributed to carbon stock depletion (43.8% forest cover, ≈ 1.2 MtC). Consequently, the prevailing focus on beavers has obscured the ongoing logging-induced carbon stock loss. The implications of our study highlight the urgency for comprehensive consideration of both drivers in Chile's climate strategy to fulfill the country's mitigation commitments.
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Ecossistema , Árvores , Animais , Carbono , Roedores , Clima Tropical , FlorestasRESUMO
Introducción: El uso de un esquema antibiótico inadecuado en sepsis aumenta significativamente la morbimortalidad. Este estudio presenta un reporte multicéntrico de susceptibilidad antibiótica en urosepsis asociada a ureterolitiasis, buscando proponer un esquema empírico óptimo para el medio nacional. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional prospectivo en 7 hospitales de 4 regiones del país. Se incluyeron pacientes con criterios de sepsis asociada a ureterolitiasis confirmada radiológicamente. Se registraron sus datos demográficos, signos vitales y laboratorio de ingreso, así como sus estudios microbiológicos y radiológicos, realizándose estadísticas descriptivas de los datos obtenidos. Resultados: Se ingresaron 119 pacientes, de los cuales 52 cumplieron criterios de inclusión. 77% eran mujeres, con una edad promedio de 52 años. Se tomaron hemocultivos en el 48,7% de los casos y urocultivos en el 100%. El microorganismo más común fue Escherichia coli (73%), seguido por Proteus mirabilis (9,6%) y Klebsiella pneumoniae (3,9%). Hubo dos casos de bacterias gram positivas. El 100% de las bacterias gram negativas fueron sensibles a amikacina. Conclusión: Los microorganismos encontrados en nuestra cohorte fueron similares a los de los estudios internacionales. Dado que el mayor nivel de susceptibilidad fue para amikacina, proponemos su uso como terapia empírica para la urosepsis asociada a ureterolitiasis en Chile. Siempre es necesario considerar los posibles efectos ne-frotóxicos de la amikacina. Se debe considerar una asociación de betalactámicos y glicopéptidos en pacientes con factores de riesgo de infecciones enterocócicas.
Background: Inadequate antibiotic coverage in septic patients is associated with higher morbidity and mortality. This multicentric study reports antibiotic susceptibility in patients with ureterolithiasis-associated urosepsis, aiming to propose an optimal empirical therapy for this disease in the Chilean population. Methods: The prospective cohort study included patients from 7 Chilean hospitals who presented with ureterolithiasis and met sepsis criteria. We analyzed demographic data, vital signs at admission, and microbiological and radiological exams. We used descriptive statistics for the analysis of collected data. Results: Initially, the study included 119 patients; 52 met the inclusion criteria. 77% were female, with a mean age of 52. 100% of the cohort had a urine culture taken at admission, whereas 48,7% had blood cultures. Escherichia Coli was the most common microorganism (73%), followed by Proteus Mirabilis (9.6%) and Klebsiella Pneumoniae (3.9%). Only two patients presented gram-positive pathogens. 100% of gram-negative bacteria were sensible to amikacin. Conclusion: The microorganisms found in our cohort were similar to those in international reports. Since the highest level of susceptibility was for amikacin, we propose its use as empirical therapy for urosepsis associated with ureterolithiasis in Chile. It is always necessary to consider the potential nephrotoxic effects of amikacin. An association of beta-lactams and glycopeptides should be considered in patients with risk factors for enterococcal infections.
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A solution approach is proposed to optimize the selection of landscape cells for inclusion in firebreaks. It involves linking spatially explicit information on a landscape's ecological values, historical ignition patterns and fire spread behavior. A firebreak placement optimization model is formulated that captures the tradeoff between the direct loss of biodiversity due to the elimination of vegetation in areas designated for placement of firebreaks and the protection provided by the firebreaks from losses due to future forest fires. The optimal solution generated by the model reduced expected losses from wildfires on a biodiversity combined index due to wildfires by 30% relative to a landscape without any treatment. It also reduced expected losses by 16% compared to a randomly chosen solution. These results suggest that biodiversity loss resulting from the removal of vegetation in areas where firebreaks are placed can be offset by the reduction in biodiversity loss due to the firebreaks' protective function.
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Incêndios , Incêndios Florestais , Biodiversidade , FlorestasRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Inadequate antibiotic coverage in septic patients is associated with higher morbidity and mortality. This multicentric study reports antibiotic susceptibility in patients with ureterolithiasis-associated urosepsis, aiming to propose an optimal empirical therapy for this disease in the Chilean population. METHODS: The prospective cohort study included patients from 7 Chilean hospitals who presented with ureterolithiasis and met sepsis criteria. We analyzed demographic data, vital signs at admission, and microbiological and radiological exams. We used descriptive statistics for the analysis of collected data. RESULTS: Initially, the study included 119 patients; 52 met the inclusion criteria. 77% were female, with a mean age of 52. 100% of the cohort had a urine culture taken at admission, whereas 48,7% had blood cultures. Escherichia Coli was the most common microorganism (73%), followed by Proteus Mirabilis (9.6%) and Klebsiella Pneumoniae (3.9%). Only two patients presented gram-positive pathogens. 100% of gram-negative bacteria were sensible to amikacin. CONCLUSION: The microorganisms found in our cohort were similar to those in international reports. Since the highest level of susceptibility was for amikacin, we propose its use as empirical therapy for urosepsis associated with ureterolithiasis in Chile. It is always necessary to consider the potential nephrotoxic effects of amikacin. An association of beta-lactams and glycopeptides should be considered in patients with risk factors for enterococcal infections.
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Antibacterianos , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Sepse , Infecções Urinárias , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Antibacterianos/efeitos adversos , Chile/epidemiologia , Sepse/tratamento farmacológico , Sepse/microbiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Infecções Urinárias/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções Urinárias/microbiologia , Ureterolitíase/complicações , Ureterolitíase/tratamento farmacológicoRESUMO
The growing demand for timber and the boom in massive tree-planting programs could mean the spreading of mismanaged tree plantations worldwide. Here, we apply the concept of ecological intensification to forestry systems as a viable biodiversity-focused strategy that could be critical to develop productive, yet sustainable, tree plantations. Tree plantations can be highly productive if tree species are properly combined to complement their ecological functions. Simultaneously considering soil biodiversity and animal-mediated biocontrol will be critical to minimize the reliance on external inputs. Integrating genetic, functional, and demographic diversity across heterogeneous landscapes should improve resilience under climate change. Designing ecologically intensified plantations will mean breaking the timber productivity versus conservation dichotomy and assuring the maintenance of key ecosystem services at safe levels.
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Ecossistema , Árvores , Animais , Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Agricultura Florestal , FlorestasRESUMO
The strong link between climate change and increased wildfire risk suggests a paradigm change on how humans must co-exist with fire and the environment. Different studies have demonstrated that human-induced fire ignitions can account for more than 90 % of forest fires, so human co-existence with wildfires requires informed decision making via preventive policies in order to minimize risk and adapt to new conditions. In this paper, we address the multidimensional effects of three groups of drivers (human activity, geographic and topographic, and land cover) that can be managed to assist in territorial planning under fire risk. We found critical factors of strong interactions with the potential to increase the likelihood of starting a fire. Our solution approach included the application of a Machine Learning method called Random Undersampling and Boosting (RUSBoost) to assess risk (fire occurrence probability), which was subsequently accompanied by a sensitivity analysis that revealed interactions of various levels of risk. The prediction performance of the proposed model was assessed using several statistical measures such as the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). The results confirmed the high accuracy of our model, with an AUC of 0.967 and an overall accuracy over test data of 93.01 % after applying a Bayesian approach for hyper-parameter optimization. The study area to test our solution approach comprised the entire geographical territory of central Chile.
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Incêndios Florestais , Teorema de Bayes , Mudança Climática , Atividades Humanas , Humanos , ProbabilidadeRESUMO
Fire plays a dominant role in deforestation, particularly in the tropics, but the relative extent of transformations and influence of fire frequency on eventual forest loss remain unclear. Here, we analyze the frequency of fire and its influence on postfire forest trajectories between 2001 and 2018. We account for ~1.1% of Latin American forests burnt in 2002-2003 (8,465,850 ha). Although 40.1% of forests (3,393,250 ha) burned only once, by 2018, ~48% of the evergreen forests converted to other, primarily grass-dominated uses. While greater fire frequency yielded more transformation, our results reveal the staggering impact of even a single fire. Increasing fire frequency imposes greater risks of irreversible forest loss, transforming forests into ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to degradation. Reversing this trend is indispensable to both mitigate and adapt to climate change globally. As climate change transforms fire regimes across the region, key actions are needed to conserve Latin American forests.
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BACKGROUND: Sports-related fractures of the fifth metatarsal are common in professional athletes. Data regarding outcomes of surgical management including refracture, complications, and return-to-play statistics are available for other professional American sports with a notable exception of soccer. PURPOSE: To quantify the burden of operative fifth metatarsal fractures in Major League Soccer (MLS) athletes, to compare outcomes as well as refracture and complication rates with other professional sports, to analyze factors that may contribute to treatment failure, and to report on return-to-play characteristics for affected players. STUDY DESIGN: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. METHODS: We searched all injuries in the prospectively collected HealtheAthlete database for MLS for operative fifth metatarsal fractures for seasons 2013 to 2017. Additional information regarding each fracture including demographics, treatment, postoperative course, and return-to-play statistics were compiled from HealtheAthlete and supplemented by teams' chief medical officers, coaches, trainers, and online sources. RESULTS: There were 21 fractures in 18 players during the study period. Mean time to radiographic healing was 8.5 weeks (n = 17). Mean time to return to play was 11.1 weeks (n = 19). Of 21 fractures, 20 (95%) players returned to sport. Of 18 players, 4 (22.2%) experienced refracture. Of 18 players, 5 (27.8%) and 2 (11.1%) reported previous stress injuries on the contralateral and ipsilateral limb, respectively. Player performance characteristics showed small declines in the first year of return that improved by the second year. CONCLUSION: MLS athletes who sustain a sports-related fifth metatarsal fracture can expect a high rate of return to sport with time to radiographic healing and return to play as well as risk of refracture similar to other professional cohorts.
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Traumatismos do Pé , Fraturas Ósseas , Ossos do Metatarso , Futebol , Atletas , Traumatismos do Pé/cirurgia , Fraturas Ósseas/epidemiologia , Fraturas Ósseas/cirurgia , Humanos , Ossos do Metatarso/cirurgiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Children with traumatic head injury are often transferred from community Emergency Departments (ED) to a Pediatric Emergency Department (PED). The primary objective of this study was to describe the outcomes of minor head injury (MHI) transfers to a PED. The secondary objective was to report Computed Tomography (CT) utilization rates for MHI. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of children aged ≤18 years transferred to our PED for MHI from 2013 to 2018. Patients with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 14, coagulopathies, history of brain mass/shunt and suspected non-accidental trauma were excluded. Data collected included demographics, interventions performed, and disposition. MHI risk stratification and clinically important traumatic brain injury (ciTBI) were defined per the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) head injury guidelines. Descriptive statistics were reported using general measures of frequency and central tendency. RESULTS: A total of 1078 children with MHI were analyzed based on eligibility criteria. The majority of patients were male (62%) and ≥ 2 years of age (69.3%). Subspecialist consultation (57.2%) and neuroimaging (27.4%) were the most commonly performed interventions in the PED. Only 14 children (1.3%) required neurosurgical intervention. One-third of the transferred patients required no additional work-up. Two-thirds of the patients (66.6%) were directly discharged from the PED. Though the total number of MHI transfers per year declined steadily during the study period (from 271/year to 119/year), CT head utilization remained relatively similar across the study years (60.3% to 70.8%). A higher proportion of children received CT in the ED when compared to the PED for low-risk (28.9% vs 15.8%) and intermediate-risk groups (42.8% vs 29.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of pediatric MHI transfers are discharged home following a subspecialty consultation and/or neuroimaging. Despite guidelines and a low incidence of ciTBI, CT utilization remains high in the intermediate and low risk MHI groups, especially in the community settings. Targeted interventions are needed to reduce the potentially avoidable transfers and low-value performance of CT in children with MHI.
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Traumatismos Craniocerebrais/diagnóstico por imagem , Traumatismos Craniocerebrais/terapia , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X/estatística & dados numéricos , Transporte de Pacientes , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Escala de Coma de Glasgow , Hospitais Pediátricos , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
To determine the outcomes of a limited surgical intervention, consisting of neurolysis, inguinal wall repair and/or adductor debridement of adhesions based on intraoperative findings. Retrospective case series. Outpatient orthopedic/general surgery clinic. Fifty-one athletes treated surgically for inguinal-related groin pain from 2009 to 2015. Limited surgical intervention, consisting of neurolysis, inguinal wall repair and/or adductor debridement based on intra-operative findings. Ability to return to sport at the same level, time to return to play. Fifty-one athletes were included in the study with an average follow-up of 4.42 years (range 2.02-7.01). The average age was 24.2 years (range 16-49) and consisted of 94.0% males and 6.0% females. Nerve entrapment was demonstrated in 96.2% of cases with involvement of the ilioinguinal in 92.5%, the iliohypogastric in 30.8% and the genitofemoral in 13.2%. Attenuation of the posterior inguinal wall was present and repaired in 79.3% of cases. Scar tissue was present around the adductor origin and required debridement in 56.7% of cases. Forty-nine (96.1%) athletes returned to sport at the same level of play at an average of 5.9 weeks. Two athletes required a revision surgery. High rates of return to sport were achieved after surgery for inguinal-related groin pain that addresses the varying pathology and associated nerve entrapment.
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Guidance for large-scale restoration of natural or semi-natural linear vegetation elements that takes into account the need to maintain human livelihoods such as farming is often lacking. Focusing on a Chilean biodiversity hotspot, we assessed the landscape in terms of existing woody vegetation elements and proposed a buffer strip and hedgerow network. We used spatial analysis based on Google Earth imagery and QGIS, field surveys, seven guidelines linked to prioritization criteria and seedling availability in the region's nurseries, and estimated the budget for implementing the proposed network. The target landscapes require restoring 0.89 ha km-2 of woody buffer strips to meet Chilean law; 1.4 ha km-2 of new hedgerows is also proposed. The cost of restoration in this landscape is estimated in ca. USD 6900 per planted ha of buffer strips and hedgerows. Financial incentives, education, and professional training of farmers are identified as key issues to implement the suggested restoration actions.
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Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Agricultura , Biodiversidade , Chile , Florestas , HumanosRESUMO
RESUMEN Introducción: La Habana, en su condición de capital de Cuba, muestra la mayor complejidad en el enfrentamiento a la epidemia por el virus SARS-CoV-2. Objetivo: Proporcionar un análisis de la distribución de la población vulnerable a la COVID-19 en la provincia La Habana. Métodos: Investigación estructurada en tres etapas, en las áreas de salud de los municipios de La Habana: 1. Estudio del grupo de población de 60 años y más que padece enfermedades crónicas (etapa A). 2. Análisis de factores que pudieran estar favoreciendo la transmisión del virus SARS-CoV-2 (etapa B). 3. Integración de las dos etapas anteriores y adición del análisis espacial de la enfermedad COVID-19 según la ubicación de los casos confirmados positivos entre el 12 de marzo-22 de junio de 2020 (etapa C). Resultados: Se presentan en cuatro mapas que se corresponden con las etapas del estudio. El primero aporta el grado de vulnerabilidad de la población de 60 años y más con enfermedades crónicas de mayor riesgo a la COVID-19; el segundo, ofrece el grado de vulnerabilidad a la transmisión del virus SARS CoV-2; el tercero, el grado de vulnerabilidad una vez integradas las etapas A y B y el cuarto mapa, presenta la ubicación por lugar de residencia de los pacientes confirmados con la COVID-19 en La Habana. Conclusiones: Estos resultados constituyen una herramienta eficaz para asistir a las autoridades en la toma de decisiones mediante un mejor conocimiento de la distribución de la población vulnerable a la COVID-19 en la provincia La Habana.
ABSTRACT Introduction: Being the capital city in Cuba, Havana displays the greatest complexity in the response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Objective: Provide an analysis of the distribution of the population vulnerable to COVID-19 in the province of Havana. Methods: A study was conducted of the health areas in the municipalities of Havana which was structured into three stages: 1. Study of the population group aged 60 years and over with chronic diseases (Stage A). 2. Analysis of the factors which might be facilitating transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (Stage B). 3. Integration of the two previous stages and addition of a spatial analysis of COVID-19 based on the location of positive cases confirmed from 12 March to 22 June 2020 (Stage C). Results: The data collected is presented in four maps corresponding to the stages of the study. The first map presents the degree of vulnerability of the population aged 60 and over with chronic diseases of highest risk for COVID-19; the second the degree of vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission; the third the degree of vulnerability upon integration of Stages A and B; and the fourth the location by place of residence of the patients confirmed with COVID-19 in Havana. Conclusions: These results constitute an effective tool to assist authorities in decision making by providing broader knowledge about the distribution of the population vulnerable to COVID-19 in the province of Havana.
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Implementação de Plano de Saúde/organização & administração , Mamoplastia/métodos , Mastectomia/métodos , Microcirurgia/métodos , Adulto , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Neoplasias da Mama/cirurgia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Mamoplastia/tendências , México , Microcirurgia/tendências , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Desenvolvimento de Programas , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Surveillance programs are vital to analyze the cause and nature of lesions and ultimately establish protocols of action to lower injury rates. PURPOSE: To evaluate the adherence of team doctors to an electronic surveillance system and determine the incidence and characteristics of injuries among soccer players participating in the 2017 Gold Cup. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiological study. METHODS: All data were collected from the electronic medical reports submitted during each match of the 2017 Gold Cup. Twelve teams participated in the tournament (each with 23 players), for a total of 276 players. A 19-question online survey was filled out by the team physician after each injury. Each report contained the player's number, the exact time of injury (minute of play), the location and diagnosis of injury as indicated by a previously defined code, and its severity in terms of the number of days of absence from training and match play. RESULTS: The electronic reporting system had a response rate of 100.0%, with 97.2% of questions answered completely. The mean age of injured players was 27 years (range, 21-35 years) and was not statistically significantly different from the overall mean player age (P > .05). There were no significant differences in the frequency of injuries when analyzed by player position (P = .743). The overall rate of injuries was 1.04 per match, with the most common injuries being contusions (42.3%), sprains (7.7%), strains (7.7%), and fractures (7.7%). These injuries were more commonly the result of contact (75.0%) than noncontact (25.0%) mechanisms (P < .001). Injuries most commonly occurred between the 60th and 75th minute of play when comparing all 15-minute time intervals (P = .004). CONCLUSION: This study supports the use of electronic injury reporting, which demonstrated a high level of adherence among an international cohort of team physicians and has significant potential for improving injury surveillance and tracking responses to prevention programs. Injury rates in the Gold Cup were similar to those in previous studies and demonstrated the highest rates late in the second half of the game, specifically between the 60th and 75th minute of play.