Contrarian role of phase and phase velocity coupling in synchrony of second-order phase oscillators.

Positive phase coupling plays an attractive role in inducing in-phase synchrony in an ensemble of phase oscillators. Positive coupling involving both amplitude and phase continues to be attractive, leading to complete synchrony in identical oscillators (limit cycle or chaotic) or phase coherence in oscillators with heterogeneity of parameters. In contrast, purely positive phase velocity coupling may originate a repulsive effect on pendulumlike oscillators (with rotational motion) to bring them into a state of diametrically opposite phases or a splay state. Negative phase velocity coupling is necessary to induce synchrony or coherence in the general sense. The contrarian roles of phase coupling and phase velocity coupling on the synchrony of networks of second-order phase oscillators have been explored here. We explain our proposition using networks of two model systems, a second-order phase oscillator representing the pendulum or the superconducting Josephson junction dynamics, and a voltage-controlled oscillations in neurons model. Numerical as well as semianalytical approaches are used to confirm our results.

Chimeras in globally coupled oscillators: A review.

The surprising phenomenon of chimera in an ensemble of identical oscillators is no more strange behavior of network dynamics and reality. By this time, this symmetry breaking self-organized collective dynamics has been established in many networks, a ring of non-locally coupled oscillators, globally coupled networks, a three-dimensional network, and multi-layer networks. A variety of coupling and dynamical models in addition to the phase oscillators has been used for a successful observation of chimera patterns. Experimental verification has also been done using metronomes, pendula, chemical, and opto-electronic systems. The phenomenon has also been shown to appear in small networks, and hence, it is not size-dependent. We present here a brief review of the origin of chimera patterns restricting our discussions to networks of globally coupled identical oscillators only. The history of chimeras in globally coupled oscillators is older than what has been reported in nonlocally coupled phase oscillators much later. We elaborate the story of the origin of chimeras in globally coupled oscillators in a chronological order, within our limitations, and with brief descriptions of the significant contributions, including our personal experiences. We first introduce chimeras in non-locally coupled and other network configurations, in general, and then discuss about globally coupled networks in more detail.

Multimodal distribution of transient time of predator extinction in a three-species food chain.

The transient dynamics capture the time history in the behavior of a system before reaching an attractor. This paper deals with the statistics of transient dynamics in a classic tri-trophic food chain with bistability. The species of the food chain model either coexist or undergo a partial extinction with predator death after a transient time depending upon the initial population density. The distribution of transient time to predator extinction shows interesting patterns of inhomogeneity and anisotropy in the basin of the predator-free state. More precisely, the distribution shows a multimodal character when the initial points are located near a basin boundary and a unimodal character when chosen from a location far away from the boundary. The distribution is also anisotropic because the number of modes depends on the direction of the local of initial points. We define two new metrics, viz., homogeneity index and local isotropic index, to characterize the distinctive features of the distribution. We explain the origin of such multimodal distributions and try to present their ecological implications.

Role of assortativity in predicting burst synchronization using echo state network.

In this study, we use a reservoir computing based echo state network (ESN) to predict the collective burst synchronization of neurons. Specifically, we investigate the ability of ESN in predicting the burst synchronization of an ensemble of Rulkov neurons placed on a scale-free network. We have shown that a limited number of nodal dynamics used as input in the machine can capture the real trend of burst synchronization in this network. Further, we investigate the proper selection of nodal inputs of degree-degree (positive and negative) correlated networks. We show that for a disassortative network, selection of different input nodes based on degree has no significant role in the machine's prediction. However, in the case of assortative network, training the machine with the information (i.e., time series) of low degree nodes gives better results in predicting the burst synchronization. The results are found to be consistent with the investigation carried out with a continuous time Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model. Furthermore, the role of hyperparameters like spectral radius and leaking parameter of ESN on the prediction process has been examined. Finally, we explain the underlying mechanism responsible for observing these differences in the prediction in a degree correlated network.

Dynamical analysis of the infection status in diverse communities due to COVID-19 using a modified SIR model.

In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and COVID-19 India websites from April 2020 to July 2021, including periods of interest where these countries and states were hit severely by the pandemic. Our methodology is based on the classic susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and can track the evolution of infections in communities, i.e., in countries, states or groups of individuals, where we (a) allow for the susceptible and infected populations to be reset at times where surges, outbreaks or secondary waves appear in the recorded data sets, (b) consider the parameters in the SIR model that represent the effective transmission and recovery rates to be functions of time and (c) estimate the number of deaths by combining the model solutions with the recorded data sets to approximate them between consecutive surges, outbreaks or secondary waves, providing a more accurate estimate. We report on the status of the current infections in these countries and states, and the infections and deaths in India and Japan. Our model can adapt to the recorded data and can be used to explain them and importantly, to forecast the number of infected, recovered, removed and dead individuals, as well as it can estimate the effective infection and recovery rates as functions of time, assuming an outbreak occurs at a given time. The latter information can be used to forecast the future basic reproduction number and together with the forecast on the number of infected and dead individuals, our approach can further be used to suggest the implementation of intervention strategies and mitigation policies to keep at bay the number of infected and dead individuals. This, in conjunction with the implementation of vaccination programs worldwide, can help reduce significantly the impact of the spread around the world and improve the wellbeing of people.

Extreme events in a complex network: Interplay between degree distribution and repulsive interaction.

The role of topological heterogeneity in the origin of extreme events in a network is investigated here. The dynamics of the oscillators associated with the nodes are assumed to be identical and influenced by mean-field repulsive interactions. An interplay of topological heterogeneity and the repulsive interaction between the dynamical units of the network triggers extreme events in the nodes when each node succumbs to such events for discretely different ranges of repulsive coupling. A high degree node is vulnerable to weaker repulsive interactions, while a low degree node is susceptible to stronger interactions. As a result, the formation of extreme events changes position with increasing strength of repulsive interaction from high to low degree nodes. Extreme events at any node are identified with the appearance of occasional large-amplitude events (amplitude of the temporal dynamics) that are larger than a threshold height and rare in occurrence, which we confirm by estimating the probability distribution of all events. Extreme events appear at any oscillator near the boundary of transition from rotation to libration at a critical value of the repulsive coupling strength. To explore the phenomenon, a paradigmatic second-order phase model is used to represent the dynamics of the oscillator associated with each node. We make an annealed network approximation to reduce our original model and, thereby, confirm the dual role of the repulsive interaction and the degree of a node in the origin of extreme events in any oscillator associated with a node.

Instabilities in quasiperiodic motion lead to intermittent large-intensity events in Zeeman laser.

We report intermittent large-intensity pulses that originate in Zeeman laser due to instabilities in quasiperiodic motion, one route follows torus-doubling to chaos and another goes via quasiperiodic intermittency in response to variation in system parameters. The quasiperiodic breakdown route to chaos via torus-doubling is well known; however, the laser model shows intermittent large-intensity pulses for parameter variation beyond the chaotic regime. During quasiperiodic intermittency, the temporal evolution of the laser shows intermittent chaotic bursting episodes intermediate to the quasiperiodic motion instead of periodic motion as usually seen during the Pomeau-Manneville intermittency. The intermittent bursting appears as occasional large-intensity events. In particular, this quasiperiodic intermittency has not been given much attention so far from the dynamical system perspective, in general. In both cases, the infrequent and recurrent large events show non-Gaussian probability distribution of event height extended beyond a significant threshold with a decaying probability confirming rare occurrence of large-intensity pulses.

Reservoir computing on epidemic spreading: A case study on COVID-19 cases.

A reservoir computing based echo state network (ESN) is used here for the purpose of predicting the spread of a disease. The current infection trends of a disease in some targeted locations are efficiently captured by the ESN when it is fed with the infection data for other locations. The performance of the ESN is first tested with synthetic data generated by numerical simulations of independent uncoupled patches, each governed by the classical susceptible-infected-recovery model for a choice of distributed infection parameters. From a large pool of synthetic data, the ESN predicts the current trend of infection in 5% patches by exploiting the uncorrelated infection trend of 95% patches. The prediction remains consistent for most of the patches for approximately 4 to 5 weeks. The machine's performance is further tested with real data on the current COVID-19 pandemic collected for different countries. We show that our proposed scheme is able to predict the trend of the disease for up to 3 weeks for some targeted locations. An important point is that no detailed information on the epidemiological rate parameters is needed; the success of the machine rather depends on the history of the disease progress represented by the time-evolving data sets of a large number of locations. Finally, we apply a modified version of our proposed scheme for the purpose of future forecasting.

Bistability in a tri-trophic food chain model: Basin stability perspective.

The most important issue of concern in a food chain is the stability of species and their nature of persistence against system parameter changes. For understanding the stable dynamics and their response against parameter perturbation, the local stability analysis is an insufficient tool. A global stability analysis by the conventional techniques seems to supplement some of the shortcomings, however, it becomes more challenging for multistable ecosystems. Either of the techniques fails to provide a complete description of the complexity in dynamics that may evolve in the system, especially, when there is any transition between the stable states. A tri-trophic resource-consumer-predator food chain model has been revisited here that shows bistability and transition to monostability via a border collision that leads to a state of predator extinction. Although earlier studies have partially revealed the dynamics of such transitions, we would like to present additional and precise information by analyzing the system from the perspective of basin stability. By drawing different bifurcation diagrams against three important parameters, using different initial conditions, we identify the range of parameter values within which the stability of the states persists and changes to various complex dynamics. We emphasize the changes in the geometry of the basins of attraction and get a quantitative estimate of the nature of relative changes in the area of the basins (basin stability) during the transitions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the presence of a down-up control, in addition to the conventional bottom-up and top-down control phenomena in the food chain. The application of basin stability in food networks will go a long way for accurate analysis of their dynamics.

Neuron-like spiking and bursting in Josephson junctions: A review.

The superconducting Josephson junction shows spiking and bursting behaviors, which have similarities with neuronal spiking and bursting. This phenomenon had been observed long ago by some researchers; however, they overlooked the biological similarity of this particular dynamical feature and never attempted to interpret it from the perspective of neuronal dynamics. In recent times, the origin of such a strange property of the superconducting junction has been explained and such neuronal functional behavior has also been observed in superconducting nanowires. The history of this research is briefly reviewed here with illustrations from studies of two junction models and their dynamical interpretation in the sense of biological bursting.

Infection spreading and recovery in a square lattice.

We investigate spreading and recovery of disease in a square lattice, and, in particular, emphasize the role of the initial distribution of infected patches in the network on the progression of an endemic and initiation of a recovery process, if any, due to migration of both the susceptible and infected hosts. The disease starts in the lattice with three possible initial distribution patterns of infected and infection-free sites, viz., infected core patches (ICP), infected peripheral patches (IPP), and randomly distributed infected patches (RDIP). Our results show that infection spreads monotonically in the lattice with increasing migration without showing any sign of recovery in the ICP case. In the IPP case, it follows a similar monotonic progression with increasing migration; however, a self-organized healing process starts for higher migration, leading the lattice to full recovery at a critical rate of migration. Encouragingly, for the initial RDIP arrangement, chances of recovery are much higher with a lower rate of critical migration. An eigenvalue-based semianalytical study is made to determine the critical migration rate for realizing a stable infection-free lattice. The initial fraction of infected patches and the force of infection play significant roles in the self-organized recovery. They follow an exponential law, for the RDIP case, that governs the recovery process. For the frustrating case of ICP arrangement, we propose a random rewiring of links in the lattice allowing long-distance migratory paths that effectively initiate a recovery process. Global prevalence of infection thereby declines and progressively improves with the rewiring probability that follows a power law with the critical migration and leads to the birth of emergent infection-free networks.

Routes to extreme events in dynamical systems: Dynamical and statistical characteristics.

Intermittent large amplitude events are seen in the temporal evolution of a state variable of many dynamical systems. Such intermittent large events suddenly start appearing in dynamical systems at a critical value of a system parameter and continues for a range of parameter values. Three important processes of instabilities, namely, interior crisis, Pomeau-Manneville intermittency, and the breakdown of quasiperiodic motion, are most common as observed in many systems that lead to such occasional and rare transitions to large amplitude spiking events. We characterize these occasional large events as extreme events if they are larger than a statistically defined significant height. We present two exemplary systems, a single system and a coupled system, to illustrate how the instabilities work to originate extreme events and they manifest as non-trivial dynamical events. We illustrate the dynamical and statistical properties of such events.

Emergence of Mixed Mode Oscillations in Random Networks of Diverse Excitable Neurons: The Role of Neighbors and Electrical Coupling.

In this paper, we focus on the emergence of diverse neuronal oscillations arising in a mixed population of neurons with different excitability properties. These properties produce mixed mode oscillations (MMOs) characterized by the combination of large amplitudes and alternate subthreshold or small amplitude oscillations. Considering the biophysically plausible, Izhikevich neuron model, we demonstrate that various MMOs, including MMBOs (mixed mode bursting oscillations) and synchronized tonic spiking appear in a randomly connected network of neurons, where a fraction of them is in a quiescent (silent) state and the rest in self-oscillatory (firing) states. We show that MMOs and other patterns of neural activity depend on the number of oscillatory neighbors of quiescent nodes and on electrical coupling strengths. Our results are verified by constructing a reduced-order network model and supported by systematic bifurcation diagrams as well as for a small-world network. Our results suggest that, for weak couplings, MMOs appear due to the de-synchronization of a large number of quiescent neurons in the networks. The quiescent neurons together with the firing neurons produce high frequency oscillations and bursting activity. The overarching goal is to uncover a favorable network architecture and suitable parameter spaces where Izhikevich model neurons generate diverse responses ranging from MMOs to tonic spiking.

Extreme events in a network of heterogeneous Josephson junctions.

We report intermittent large spiking events in a heterogeneous network of forced Josephson junctions under the influence of repulsive interaction. The response of the individual junctions has been inspected instead of the collective response of the ensemble, which reveals the large spiking events in a subpopulation with characteristic features of extreme events (EE). The network splits into three clusters of junctions, one in coherent libration, one in incoherent rotational motion, and another subpopulation originating EE, which resembles a chimeralike pattern. EE migrates spatially from one to another subpopulation of junctions with the repulsive strength. The origin of EE in a subpopulation and chimera pattern is a generic effect of distributed damping parameter and repulsive interaction, which we verify with another network of the Liénard system. EE originates in the subpopulation via a local riddling of in-phase synchronization. The probability density function of event heights confirms the rare occurrence of large events and the return time of EE as expressed by interevent intervals in the subgroup follows a Poisson distribution. The mechanism of the origin of such a unique clustering is explained qualitatively.

Dragon-king-like extreme events in coupled bursting neurons.

We present evidence of extreme events in two Hindmarsh-Rose (HR) bursting neurons mutually interacting via two different coupling configurations: chemical synaptic- and gap junctional-type diffusive coupling. A dragon-king-like probability distribution of the extreme events is seen for combinations of synaptic coupling where small- to medium-size events obey a power law and the larger events that cross an extreme limit are outliers. The extreme events originate due to instability in antiphase synchronization of the coupled systems via two different routes, intermittency and quasiperiodicity routes to complex dynamics for purely excitatory and inhibitory chemical synaptic coupling, respectively. For a mixed type of inhibitory and excitatory chemical synaptic interactions, the intermittency route to extreme events is only seen. Extreme events with our suggested distribution is also seen for gap junctional-type diffusive, but repulsive, coupling where the intermittency route to complexity is found. A simple electronic experiment using two diffusively coupled analog circuits of the HR neuron model, but interacting in a repulsive way, confirms occurrence of the dragon-king-like extreme events.

Coupling conditions for globally stable and robust synchrony of chaotic systems.

We propose a set of general coupling conditions to select a coupling profile (a set of coupling matrices) from the linear flow matrix of dynamical systems for realizing global stability of complete synchronization (CS) in identical systems and robustness to parameter perturbation. The coupling matrices define the coupling links between any two oscillators in a network that consists of a conventional diffusive coupling link (self-coupling link) as well as a cross-coupling link. The addition of a selective cross-coupling link in particular plays constructive roles that ensure the global stability of synchrony and furthermore enables robustness of synchrony against small to nonsmall parameter perturbation. We elaborate the general conditions for the selection of coupling profiles for two coupled systems, three- and four-node network motifs analytically as well as numerically using benchmark models, the Lorenz system, the Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model, the Shimizu-Morioka laser model, the Rössler system, and a Sprott system. The role of the cross-coupling link is, particularly, exemplified with an example of a larger network, where it saves the network from a breakdown of synchrony against large parameter perturbation in any node. The perturbed node in the network transits from CS to generalized synchronization (GS) when all the other nodes remain in CS. The GS is manifested by an amplified response of the perturbed node in a coherent state.

Multicluster oscillation death and chimeralike states in globally coupled Josephson Junctions.

We observe the multiclustered oscillation death and chimeralike states in an array of Josephson junctions under a combination of self-repulsive and cross-attractive mean-field interaction when each isolated junction is in a bistable state, a coexisting fixed point and an oscillatory state. We locate the parameter landscape of the multiclustered oscillation death and chimeralike states. Alternatively, a purely repulsive mean-field interaction in an array of all oscillatory junctions produces chimeralike states with signatures of metastability in the incoherent subpopulation of junctions.

Coherent libration to coherent rotational dynamics via chimeralike states and clustering in a Josephson junction array.

An array of excitable Josephson junctions under a global mean-field interaction and a common periodic forcing shows the emergence of two important classes of coherent dynamics, librational and rotational motion, in the weaker and stronger coupling limits, respectively, with transitions to chimeralike states and clustered states in the intermediate coupling range. In this numerical study, we use the Kuramoto complex order parameter and introduce two measures, a libration index and a clustering index, to characterize the dynamical regimes and their transitions and locate them in a parameter plane.

Chimeralike states in a network of oscillators under attractive and repulsive global coupling.

We report chimeralike states in an ensemble of oscillators using a type of global coupling consisting of two components: attractive and repulsive mean-field feedback. We identify the existence of two types of chimeralike states in a bistable Liénard system; in one type, both the coherent and the incoherent populations are in chaotic states (which we refer to as chaos-chaos chimeralike states) and, in another type, the incoherent population is in periodic state while the coherent population has irregular small oscillation. We find a metastable state in a parameter regime of the Liénard system where the coherent and noncoherent states migrate in time from one to another subpopulation. The relative size of the incoherent subpopulation, in the chimeralike states, remains almost stable with increasing size of the network. The generality of the coupling configuration in the origin of the chimeralike states is tested, using a second example of bistable system, the van der Pol-Duffing oscillator where the chimeralike states emerge as weakly chaotic in the coherent subpopulation and chaotic in the incoherent subpopulation. Furthermore, we apply the coupling, in a simplified form, to form a network of the chaotic Rössler system where both the noncoherent and the coherent subpopulations show chaotic dynamics.