Contribution of cognitive performance and cognitive decline to associations between socioeconomic factors and dementia: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic disadvantage is a risk factor for dementia, but longitudinal studies suggest that it does not affect the rate of cognitive decline. Our objective is to understand the manner in which socioeconomic disadvantage shapes dementia risk by examining its associations with midlife cognitive performance and cognitive decline from midlife to old age, including cognitive decline trajectories in those with dementia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data are drawn from the Whitehall II study (N = 10,308 at study recruitment in 1985), with cognitive function assessed at 4 waves (1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012). Sociodemographic, behavioural, and cardiometabolic risk factors from 1985 and chronic conditions until the end of follow-up in 2015 (N dementia/total = 320/9,938) allowed the use of inverse probability weighting to take into account data missing because of loss to follow-up between the study recruitment in 1985 and the introduction of cognitive tests to the study in 1997. Generalized estimating equations and Cox regression were used to assess associations of socioeconomic markers (height, education, and midlife occupation categorized as low, intermediate, and high to represent hierarchy in the socioeconomic marker) with cognitive performance, cognitive decline, and dementia (N dementia/total = 195/7,499). In those with dementia, we examined whether retrospective trajectories of cognitive decline (backward timescale) over 18 years prior to diagnosis differed as a function of socioeconomic markers. Socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with poorer cognitive performance (all p < 0.001). Using point estimates for the effect of age, the differences between the high and low socioeconomic groups corresponded to an age effect of 4, 15, and 26 years, for height, education, and midlife occupation, respectively. There was no evidence of faster cognitive decline in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. Low occupation, but not height or education, was associated with risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-3.36]) in an analysis adjusted for sociodemographic factors; the excess risk was unchanged after adjustment for cognitive decline but was completely attenuated after adjustment for cognitive performance. In further analyses restricted to those with dementia, retrospective cognitive trajectories over 18 years prior to dementia diagnosis showed faster cognitive decline in the high education (p = 0.006) and occupation (p = 0.001) groups such that large differences in cognitive performance in midlife were attenuated at dementia diagnosis. A major limitation of our study is the use of electronic health records rather than comprehensive dementia ascertainment. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the passive or threshold cognitive reserve hypothesis, in that high cognitive reserve is associated with lower risk for dementia because of its association with cognitive performance, which provides a buffer against clinical expression of dementia.

Affordability of adult HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries: modelling price determinants for a better insight of the market functioning.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to provide a landscape of the global antiretroviral (ARV) market by analyzing the transactional data on donor-funded ARV procurement between 2003 and 2015, and the ARV price determinants. DESIGN: The data were obtained from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) managed by the AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the WHO, and it consists of information that covers approximately 80% of the total donor-funded adult ARV transactions procurement. METHODS: ExWorks prices and procured quantities were standardized according to the guidelines in terms of yearly doses. Descriptive statistics on quantities and prices show the main trends of the ARV market. Ordinary least squares estimation was carried out for the whole sample, then stratified according to the type of supplier (originator and generic) and controlled for time and geographical fixed-effects. Given that analyses were carried out on a public dataset on ARV transactional prices from the GPRM, ethics are respected and consent was not necessary. RESULTS: Originator medicines are on average the least expensive in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where at the same time, generic medicines are on average the most expensive. By contrast, originator medicines are the most expensive in Europe and Central Asia, and generic medicines are the least expensive. In fact, the data suggest mixed strategies by ARV suppliers to exploit opportunities for profit maximization and to adapt to the specific conditions of market competition in each region. Our results also suggest that the expiration of patents is not sufficient to boost additional developments in generic competition (at least in the ARV market) and that formal or informal agreements between generic firms may de facto slow down or even reverse long-term trends towards price decreases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide an improved understanding of the ARV market that can help countries strengthen policy measures to increase their bargaining power in price negotiations and the use of TRIPS flexibilities, with a special emphasis on negotiations with generic manufacturers.

State humanitarian verticalism versus universal health coverage: a century of French international health assistance revisited.

The French contribution to global public health over the past two centuries has been marked by a fundamental tension between two approaches: State-provided universal free health care and what we propose to call State humanitarian verticalism. Both approaches have historical roots in French colonialism and have led to successes and failures that continue until the present day. In this paper, the second in The Lancet's Series on France, we look at how this tension has evolved. During the French colonial period (1890s to 1950s), the Indigenous Medical Assistance structure was supposed to bring metropolitan France's model of universal and free public health care to the colonies, and French State imperial humanitarianism crystallised in vertical programmes inspired by Louis Pasteur, while vying with early private humanitarian activism in health represented by Albert Schweitzer. From decolonisation to the end of the Cold War (1960-99), French assistance to newly independent states was affected by sans frontièrisme, Health for All, and the AIDS pandemic. Since 2000, France has had an active role in development of global health initiatives and favoured multilateral action for health assistance. Today, with adoption of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and the challenges of non-communicable diseases, economic inequality, and climate change, French international health assistance needs new direction. In the context of current debate over global health as a universal goal, understanding and acknowledging France's history could help strengthen advocacy in favour of universal health coverage and contribute to advancing global equity through income redistribution, from healthy populations to people who are sick and from wealthy individuals to those who are poor.

An analysis of volumes, prices and pricing trends of the pediatric antiretroviral market in developing countries from 2004 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: The pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) market is poorly described in the literature, resulting in gaps in understanding treatment access. We analyzed the pediatric ARV market from 2004 to 2012 and assessed pricing trends and associated factors. METHODS: Data on donor funded procurements of pediatric ARV formulations reported to the Global Price Reporting Mechanism database from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were the volume and mean price per patient-year ARV formulation based on WHO ARV dosing recommendations for a 10 kg child. Factors associated with the price of formulations were assessed using linear regression; potential predictors included: country income classification, geographical region, market segment (originator versus generic ARVs), and number of manufacturers per formulation. All analyses were adjusted for type of formulations (single, dual or triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs)) RESULTS: Data from 111 countries from 2004 to 2012 were included, with procurement of 33 formulations at a total value of USD 204 million. Use of dual and triple FDC formulations increased substantially over time, but with limited changes in price. Upon multivariate analysis, prices of originator formulations were found to be on average 72 % higher than generics (p < 0.001). A 10 % increase in procurement volume was associated with a 1 % decrease (p < 0.001) in both originator and generic prices. The entry of one additional manufacturer producing a formulation was associated with a decrease in prices of 2 % (p < 0.001) and 8 % (p < 0.001) for originator and generic formulations, respectively. The mean generic ARV price did not differ by country income level. Prices of originator ARVs were 48 % (p < 0.001) and 14 % (p < 0.001) higher in upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries compared to low income countries respectively, with the exception of South Africa, which had lower prices despite being an upper-middle income country. CONCLUSIONS: The donor funded pediatric ARV market as represented by the GPRM database is small, and lacks price competition. It is dominated by generic drugs due to the lower prices offered and the practicality of FDC formulations. This market requires continued donor support and the current initiatives to protect it are important to ensure market viability, especially if new formulations are to be introduced in the future.

Fairness in healthcare finance and delivery: what about Tunisia?

Anecdotal evidence on hidden inequity in health care in North African countries abounds. Yet firm empirical evidence has been harder to come by. This article fills the gap. It presents the first analysis of equity in the healthcare system using the particular case of Tunisia. Analyses are based on an unusually rich source of data taken from the Tunisian HealthCare Utilization and Morbidity Survey. Payments for health care are derived from the total amount of healthcare spending which was incurred by households over the last year. Utilization of health care is measured by the number of physical units of two types of services: outpatient and inpatient. The measurement of need for health care is apprehended through a rich set of ill-health indicators and demographics. Findings are presented and compared at both the aggregate level, using the general summary index approach, and the disaggregate level, using the distribution-free stochastic dominance approach. The overall picture is that direct out-of-pocket payments, which constitute a sizeable share in the current financing mix, emerge to be a progressive means of financing health care overall. Interestingly, however, when statistical testing is applied at the disaggregate level progressivity is retained over the top half of the distribution. Further analyses of the distributions of need for--and utilization of--two types of health care--outpatient and inpatient--reveal that the observed progressivity is rather an outcome of the heavy use, but not need, for health care at the higher income levels. Several policy relevant factors are discussed, and some recommendations are advanced for future reforms of the health care in Tunisia.

Susceptibility to transmitting HIV in patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in rural district hospitals in Cameroon (Stratall ANRS 12110/ESTHER Trial).

OBJECTIVES: Using cohort data nested in a randomized trial conducted in Cameroon, this study aimed to investigate time trends and predictors of the susceptibility to transmitting HIV during the first 24 months of treatment. METHODS: The outcome, susceptibility to transmitting HIV, was defined as reporting inconsistent condom use and experiencing incomplete virological suppression. Mixed logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of this outcome among 250 patients reporting to have had sexual relationships either with HIV-negative or unknown HIV status partner(s). RESULTS: Despite an initial decrease from 76% at M0 to 50% at M6, the rate of inconsistent condom use significantly increased from M12 (59%) to M24 (66%) (p = 0.017). However, the proportion of patients susceptible to transmitting HIV significantly decreased over follow-up from 76% at M0, to 50% at M6, 31% at M12 and 27% at M24 (p<0.001). After controlling for age, gender and intervention group, we found that perceiving healthcare staff's readiness to listen as poor (adjusted odds ratios (AOR) [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 1.87 [1.01-3.46]), reporting to have sexual relationships more than once per week (AOR [95%CI] = 2.52 [1.29-4.93]), having more than one sexual partner (AOR [95%CI] = 2.53 [1.21-5.30]) and desiring a/another child (AOR [95%CI] = 2.07 [1.10-3.87]) were all associated with a higher risk of being susceptible to transmitting HIV. Conversely, time since ART initiation (AOR [95%CI] = 0.66 [0.53-0.83] for an extra 6 months and ART adherence (AOR [95%CI] = 0.33 [0.15-0.72]) were significantly associated with a lower risk of being susceptible to transmitting HIV. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease observed in the susceptibility to transmitting HIV suggests that fear of behavioural disinhibition should not be a barrier to universal access to ART. However, developing adequate preventive interventions matching patients' expectations -like the desire to have children- and strengthening healthcare staff's counselling skills are urgently needed to maximize the impact of ART in slowing the HIV epidemic.

Monitoring of HIV viral load, CD4 cell count, and clinical assessment versus clinical monitoring alone for antiretroviral therapy in low-resource settings (Stratall ANRS 12110/ESTHER): a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: In low-income countries, the use of laboratory monitoring of patients taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains controversial in view of persistent resource constraints. The Stratall trial did not show that clinical monitoring alone was non-inferior to laboratory and clinical monitoring in terms of immunological recovery. We aimed to evaluate the costs and cost-effectiveness of the ART monitoring approaches assessed in the Stratall trial. METHODS: The randomised, controlled, non-inferiority Stratall trial was done in a decentralised setting in Cameroon. Between May 23, 2006, and Jan 31, 2008, ART-naive adults were randomly assigned (1:1) to clinical monitoring (CLIN) or viral load and CD4 cell count plus clinical monitoring (LAB) and followed up for 24 months. We calculated costs, number of life-years saved (LYS), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with data from patients who had been followed up for at least 6 months. We considered two cost scenarios in which viral load plus CD4 cell count tests cost either US$95 (scenario 1; Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay) or $63 (scenario 2; generic assay). We compared ICERs with a WHO-recommended threshold of three times the per-person gross domestic product (GDP) for Cameroon ($3670-3800) and an alternative lower threshold of $2385 to determine cost-effectiveness. We assessed uncertainty with one-way sensitivity analyses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. FINDINGS: 188 participants who underwent LAB and 197 who underwent CLIN were followed up for at least 6 months. In scenario 1, LAB increased costs by a mean of $489 (SD 430) per patient and saved 0·103 life-years compared with CLIN (ICER of $4768 [95% CI 3926-5613] per LYS). In scenario 2, the incremental mean cost of LAB was $343 (SD 425) -ie, an ICER of $3339 (2507-4173) per LYS. A combined strategy in which LAB would only be used in patients starting ART with a CD4 count of 200 cells per µL or fewer suggests that 0·120 life-years would be saved at an additional cost of $259 per patient in scenario 1 (ICER of $2167 [95% CI 1314-3020] per LYS) and $181 in scenario 2 (ICER of $1510 [692-2329] per LYS) when compared with CLIN. INTERPRETATION: Laboratory monitoring was not cost effective in 2006-10 compared with clinical monitoring when the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay was used according to the $3670 cost-effectiveness threshold (three times per-person GDP in Cameroon), but it might be cost effective if a generic in-house assay is used. FUNDING: French National Agency for Research on AIDS and Viral Hepatitis (ANRS) and Ensemble pour une Solidarité Thérapeutique Hospitalière En Réseau (ESTHER).

Changes in sexual activity and risk behaviors among PLWHA initiating ART in rural district hospitals in Cameroon -- data from the STRATALL ANRS 12110/ESTHER trial.

The continued scaling-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Sub-Saharan Africa provides an opportunity to further study its impact on sexual behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). We explored time trend and correlates of sexual activity among PLWHA initiating ART in Cameroon and compared sexual risk behaviors between patients sexually active before and after initiating ART and those resuming sexual activity after ART initiation. Analyses were based on longitudinal data collected within the randomized trial (n=459) conducted in nine rural district hospitals in Cameroon. Sexual activity was defined as reporting at least one sexual partner during the previous 3 months. Inconsistent condom use (ICU) was defined as reporting to have "never," "sometimes," or "nearly always" used condoms at least once with a partner(s) either HIV-negative or of unknown HIV status during the same period. Mc Nemar tests were used to assess time trend, while mixed-effect logistic regressions were conducted to analyze the effect of time since ART initiation on sexual activity. The proportion of sexually active patients significantly increased over time: from 31.8% at baseline to 40.2 and 47.1% after 6 and 12 months of ART, respectively (p=0.001), to 55.9% after 24 months (p=0.02). After adjustment for behavioral and psychosocial factors, time since ART initiation was independently associated with reporting sexual activity (AOR [95% CI]=1.30 [1.17-1.46] per 6-month increase, p=0.001). ICU was more frequent among patients sexually active both before and after ART initiation than among those who resumed sexual activity after ART initiation (82 vs. 59%, p

Impact of HIV comprehensive care and treatment on serostatus disclosure among Cameroonian patients in rural district hospitals.

This work aimed to analyze the rate of disclosure to relatives and friends over time and to identify factors affecting disclosure among seropositive adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural district hospitals in the context of decentralized, integrated HIV care and task-shifting to nurses in Cameroon. Stratall was a 24-month, randomized, open-label trial comparing the effectiveness of clinical monitoring alone with laboratory plus clinical monitoring on treatment outcomes. It enrolled 459 HIV-infected ART-naive adults in 9 rural district hospitals in Cameroon. Participants in both groups were sometimes visited by nurses instead of physicians. Patients with complete data both at enrolment (M0) and at least at one follow-up visit were included in the present analysis. A mixed Poisson regression was used to estimate predictors of the evolution of disclosure index over 24 months (M24).The study population included 385 patients, accounting for 1733 face-to-face interviews at follow-up visits from M0 to M24. The median [IQR] number of categories of relatives and friends to whom patients had disclosed was 2 [1]-[3] and 3 [2]-[5] at M0 and M24 (p-trend<0.001), respectively. After multiple adjustments, factors associated with disclosure to a higher number of categories of relatives and friends were as follows: having revealed one's status to one's main partner, time on ART, HIV diagnosis during hospitalization, knowledge on ART and positive ratio of follow-up nurse-led to physician-led visits measuring task-shifting. ART delivered in the context of decentralized, integrated HIV care including task-shifting was associated with increased HIV serological status disclosure.

Appraising financial protection in health: the case of Tunisia.

Despite the remarkable progress in expanding the coverage of social protection mechanisms in health, the Tunisian healthcare system is still largely funded through direct out-of-pocket payments. This paper seeks to assess financial protection in health in the particular policy and epidemiological transition of Tunisia using nationally representative survey data on healthcare expenditure, utilization and morbidity. The extent to which the healthcare system protects people against the financial repercussions of ill-health is assessed using the catastrophic and impoverishing payment approaches. The characteristics associated with the likelihood of vulnerability to catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) are examined using multivariate logistic regression technique. Results revealed that non-negligible proportions of the Tunisian population (ranging from 4.5 % at the conservative 40 % threshold of discretionary nonfood expenditure to 12 % at the 10 % threshold of total expenditure) incurred CHE. In terms of impoverishment, results showed that health expenditure can be held responsible for about 18 % of the rise in the poverty gap. These results appeared to be relatively higher when compared with those obtained for other countries with similar level of development. Nonetheless, although households belonging to richer quintiles reported more illness episodes and received more treatment than the poor households, the latter households were more likely to incur CHE at any threshold. Amongst the correlates of CHE, health insurance coverage was significantly related to CHE regardless of the threshold used. Some implications and policy recommendations, which might also be useful for other similar countries, are advanced to enhance the financial protection capacity of the Tunisian healthcare system.

Time patterns of adherence and long-term virological response to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor regimens in the Stratall ANRS 12110/ESTHER trial in Cameroon.

BACKGROUND: Although treatment adherence is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, it is still unknown which longitudinal patterns of adherence are the most detrimental to long-term virological response to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) regimens. This analysis aimed to study the influence of different time patterns of adherence on virological failure after 24 months of treatment in Cameroon. METHODS: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence data were collected using face-to-face questionnaires administered at months 1, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24. Virological failure was defined as viral load >40 copies/ml at month 18 and/or 24. Two combined indicators of early adherence (months 1, 3 and 6) and adherence during the maintenance phase (months 12, 18 and 24) were designed to classify patients as always adherent during the early or maintenance phase, non-adherent at least once and having interrupted ART for >2 days at least once at any visit during either of these two phases. RESULTS: Virological failure occurred in 107 (42%) of the 254 patients included in the analysis. In the early and maintenance phases, 84% and 76%, respectively, were always adherent, 5% and 5% were non-adherent and 11% and 20% experienced ≥ 1 treatment interruption. Early non-adherence was independently associated with virological failure (adjusted OR 7.2 [95% CI 1.5, 34.6]), while only treatment interruptions had a significant impact on virological failure during the maintenance phase (adjusted OR 2.1 [95% CI 1.1, 4.4]). CONCLUSIONS: ART NNRTI-regimens used in sub-Saharan Africa seem to 'forgive' deviations from good adherence during the maintenance phase. Optimizing adherence in the early months of treatment remains crucial, especially in a setting of poor health care infrastructure and resources.

Pandemic influenza (A/H1N1) vaccine uptake among French private general practitioners: a cross sectional study in 2010.

BACKGROUND: In July, 2009, French health authorities, like those in many other countries, decided to embark on a mass vaccination campaign against the pandemic A(H1N1) influenza. Private general practitioners (GPs) were not involved in this campaign. We studied GPs' pandemic vaccine (pvaccine) uptake, quantified the relative contribution of its potential explanatory factors and studied whether their own vaccination choice was correlated with their recommendations to patients about pvaccination. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this cross-sectional telephone survey, professional investigators interviewed an existing panel of randomly selected private GPs (N = 1431; response rate at inclusion in the panel: 36.8%; participation rate in the survey: 100%). The main outcome variable was GPs' own pvaccine uptake. We used an averaging multi-model approach to quantify the relative contribution of factors associated with their vaccination. The pvaccine uptake rate was 61% (95%CI = 58.3-63.3). Four independent factors contributed the most to this rate (partial Nagelkerke's R(2)): history of previous vaccination against seasonal influenza (14.5%), perception of risks and efficacy of the pvaccine (10.8%), opinions regarding the organization of the vaccination campaign (7.1%), and perception of the pandemic's severity (5.2%). Overall, 71.3% (95%CI = 69.0-73.6) of the participants recommended pvaccination to young adults at risk and 40.1% (95%CI = 37.6-42.7) to other young adults. GPs' own pvaccination was strongly predictive of their recommendation to both young adults at risk (OR = 9.6; 95%CI = 7.2-12.6) and those not at risk (OR = 8.5; 95%CI = 6.4-11.4). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that around 60% of French private GPs followed French authorities' recommendations about vaccination of health care professionals against the A(H1N1) influenza. They pinpoint priority levers for improving preparedness for future influenza pandemics. Besides encouraging GPs' own uptake of regular vaccination against seasonal influenza, providing GPs with clear information about the risks and efficacy of any new pvaccine and involving them in the organization of any future vaccine campaign may improve their pvaccine uptake.

Adherence as a predictor of sexual behaviors in people living with HIV/AIDS during the first year of antiretroviral therapy in rural Cameroon: data from Stratall ANRS 12110/ESTHER trial.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the time pattern of inconsistence condom use (ICU) during the first year of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and its relationship with treatment adherence in naïve HIV-infected adult patients. METHODS: Data collection was nested within a longitudinal trial on HIV treatment. ICU was defined as reporting to have "never", "sometimes" or "nearly always" used condoms with one's main or casual partner(s)--either HIV-negative or of unknown HIV status in the three previous months. Adherence was defined as taking 100% of their ART prescribed doses in the 4 days before the visit and "not having interrupted treatment", even once, for more than two consecutive days during the 4 previous weeks. Mixed logistic regression was used to study the relationship between adherence and ICU. RESULTS: Among the 459 patients enrolled, 212 (46%) during 334 visits reported to have had sexual intercourse at least once with their partner(s)--either HIV-negative or of unknown HIV status--during the first 12 months of ART. The proportion of ICU was 76%, 50% and 59% at month 0 (M0), month 6 (M6) and month 12 (M12), while 60% and 66% of patients were ART-adherent at M6 and M12, respectively. After adjustment for the frequency of sexual activity, type of sexual partner(s), perceived social class and desire for a child, patients adherent to ART were less likely to report ICU when compared with baseline (AOR [95% CI]: 0.38 [0.19-0.76]; P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to ART is associated with a lower risk of ICU but this result needs to be interpreted carefully. As adherence behaviors are not only determined by problems with the healthcare systems but also by social barriers encountered by patients in their daily life, counseling should not only be ART adherence-centered but also patient-centered, including sexual risk minimization and psychosocial support.

The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model.

AIM: Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. METHODS: We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. RESULTS: Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice.