Why we need pre-exposure prophylaxis: incident HIV and syphilis among men, and transgender women, who have sex with men, Bangkok, Thailand, 2005-2015.

We describe incident human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and syphilis trends in men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) presenting for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) services and sexually transmitted infection (STI) management at the Silom Community Clinic, Bangkok, Thailand. Clients underwent rapid HIV testing and syphilis rapid plasma reagin (RPR) testing. For incidence analysis, we included clients with >1 follow-up visit. Initial negative HIV with subsequent positive HIV defined incident HIV infection; incident syphilis infection was defined as negative RPR followed by positive RPR (titer ≥1:8) and confirmatory anti- Treponema pallidum antibodies. Calculation of incidence using Poisson regression assumed a uniform probability distribution throughout the seroconversion interval. From 15 September 2005 to 31 December 2015, we tested 10,158 clients for HIV and 10,324 for syphilis. Overall, 7109 clients tested HIV-seronegative and contributed 7157 person-years (PY). Three-hundred forty-seven incident HIV infections resulted in an incidence rate of 4.8 per 100 PY (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4-5.4). We found an inverted U-shape trend of HIV incidence over time with a peak of 6.4 per 100 PY in quarter 2/2011 ( p < 0.01) (Poisson with RCS function, p = 0.001). Overall, 8713 clients tested seronegative for syphilis and contributed 8623 PY. The incidence of syphilis infection was 4.4 per 100 PY (95% CI 3.9-4.8). Despite an apparent decline in HIV incidence among MSM and TGW attending VCT services, syphilis incidence rose and remained high. Evaluating temporal trends of HIV and syphilis incidence provides an opportunity to evaluate epidemic trajectories and target limited program funding. We recommend focused HIV and STI prevention interventions for MSM in Bangkok.

Prevalence of Treponema pallidum seropositivity and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection in a cohort of men who have sex with men, Bangkok, Thailand, 2006-2010.

We report prevalence of Treponema pallidum (TP) seropositivity and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection and risk factors associated with their prevalence in a cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangkok, Thailand. Between April 2006 and March 2010 we enrolled Thai MSM into a cohort study based at the Silom Community Clinic, with baseline behavioural data and laboratory testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Logistic regression was used to analyse risk factors associated with the prevalence of TP seropositivity and HSV-2 infection. From a total of 1544 enrolled men (mean age 26 years) TP, HSV-2 and HIV seropositive rates were 4.4%, 20.7% and 21.6%, respectively. After multivariable analysis, participating in group sex, reporting paying for sex, reporting sex with a casual partner in a park and being HSV-2 seropositive were associated with TP prevalence. Age ≥30 years, having less than a high school education, past use of recreational drugs, meeting casual sexual partners at a public venue (sauna) and TP seropositivity were associated with HSV-2 infection. The significant baseline prevalence of TP seropositivity and HSV-2 infection in this cohort demonstrates the need for screening and treatment of these STIs and targeted prevention interventions in Thai MSM in Bangkok.

Mother-to-child transmission of GB virus C in a cohort of women coinfected with GB virus C and HIV in Bangkok, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: GB virus C (GBV-C) is an apathogenic virus that inhibits human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication in vitro. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of GBV-C has been observed in multiple small studies. Our study examined the rate and correlates of MTCT of GBV-C in a large cohort of GBV-C-HIV-coinfected pregnant women in Thailand. METHODS: Maternal delivery plasma specimens from 245 GBV-C-HIV-infected women and specimens from their infants at 4 or 6 months of age were tested for GBV-C RNA. Associations with MTCT of GBV-C were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: One hundred one (41%) of 245 infants acquired GBV-C infection. MTCT of GBV-C was independently associated with maternal antiretroviral therapy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 5.21 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.12-12.81]), infant HIV infection (AOR, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.01-0.26]), maternal GBV-C load (8.0 log(10) copies/mL: AOR, 86.77 [95% CI, 15.27-481.70]; 7.0-7.9 log(10) copies/mL: AOR, 45.62 [95% CI, 8.41-247.51]; 5.0-6.9 log(10) copies/mL: AOR, 9.07 [95% CI, 1.85-44.33]: reference, <5 log(10) viral copies/mL), and caesarean delivery (AOR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.12-0.59]). CONCLUSIONS: Associations with maternal GBV-C load and mode of delivery suggest transmission during pregnancy and delivery. Despite mode of delivery being a common risk factor for virus transmission, GBV-C and HIV were rarely cotransmitted. The mechanisms by which maternal receipt of antiretroviral therapy might increase MTCT of GBV-C are unknown.

Dried blood spots for the diagnosis and quantitation of HIV-1: stability studies and evaluation of sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of infant HIV-1 infection in Thailand.

Molecular methods for HIV-1 infection using dried blood-spot (DBS) for HIV-1 CRF01_AE subtypes have not been fully optimized. In this study assays for HIV-1 diagnosis or quantitation were evaluated using infant DBS from Thailand. Paired DBS and whole blood samples from 56 HIV-1 CRF01_AE or B'-infected infants were tested for infant diagnosis using modified Amplicor DNA PCR and NucliSens RNA NASBA and an in-house real-time PCR assay. The Amplicor Monitor viral load (VL) assay, with modifications for DBS, was also evaluated. DBS VL were hematocrit corrected. Stability studies were done on DBS stored at -70 degrees C to 37 degrees C for up to 1 year. The DBS diagnostic assays were 96-100% sensitive and 100% specific for HIV-1 diagnosis. DBS HIV-1 VL were highly correlated with plasma VL when corrected using the actual or an assumed hematocrit factor (r(c)=0.88 or 0.93, respectively). HIV-1 DNA in DBS appeared to be more stable than RNA and could be detected after up to 9 months at most temperatures. DBS VL could be consistently determined when stored frozen. These results show that DBS can be used accurately instead of whole blood for the diagnosis of HIV-1 infection and VL quantitation, particularly if samples are appropriately stored.

Rapid assessment of sexual behavior, drug use, human immunodeficiency virus, and sexually transmitted diseases in northern thai youth using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing and noninvasive specimen collection.

BACKGROUND: Drug use, unwanted pregnancy, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and sexually transmitted diseases are serious health problems among Thai youth. The gravity of these problems demands high-quality data to direct public health policy and prevention programs. Previous studies of stigmatized behaviors have been hampered by participation bias and underreporting. To evaluate sexual behavior, disease, and drug use, we used audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) and noninvasive specimen collection methods. We also evaluated effectiveness of these methods in minimizing participation bias and underreporting. METHODS: In late 1999, students aged 15 to 21 years attending 3 vocational schools were invited to participate in a cross-sectional survey. Consenting students completed a classroom-based ACASI interview using a confidential code number system. Oral fluid specimens were tested for HIV antibodies, and urine was tested for chlamydial and gonococcal nucleic acids, methamphetamines, and opiates. RESULTS: Of 1736 invited students, 1725 (99%) agreed to participate. Of these, 48% of the male students and 43% of the female students reported ever having had sexual intercourse. Overall, the mean number of lifetime sexual partners was 4.6 among male participants (median: 2) and 2.8 among female participants (median: 1). Consistent use of condoms with steady partners was reported by 16% of male participants and 11% of female participants who had such partners. Of all male participants, 7% had ever paid for sex, 3% had ever sold sex, and 7% had ever been coerced to have sex. Of all female participants, 3% had ever sold sex and 21% had ever been coerced to have sex. Among women with a history of sexual intercourse, 27% reported at least 1 pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, 83% were terminated. Among those with sexual intercourse experience, the prevalence of HIV infection was 0.5%; of infection with Neisseria gonorrhoeae, 0.4%; and of infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, 5%. Twenty-nine percent of students reported ever having used methamphetamines. Ten percent had a methamphetamine-positive urine test. In the ACASI interview, 16% of these denied ever having used methamphetamines. The prevalence of opiate positive urine tests was low (0.2%). CONCLUSION: This study shows that adolescents and young adults in Chiang Rai are at high risk for having unprotected intercourse, being coerced to have sex, unwanted pregnancy, sexually transmitted diseases, and drug use. The high enrollment rate demonstrates the feasibility and acceptability of using ACASI and noninvasive specimen collection methods in a developing country. ACASI use may lead to increased, but not to complete, self-reporting of sensitive behaviors.

Viral load differences in early infection with two HIV-1 subtypes.

OBJECTIVES: Information on early HIV-1 infection has come primarily from studies of persons infected with subtype B in North America and Europe; much less is known about other subtypes. The purpose of the present study was to compare the virologic and immunologic parameters following seroconversion among recently-infected persons infected with either of two different HIV-1 subtypes. METHOD: A prospective cohort study was carried out at methadone treatment clinics administered by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, Thailand. A total of 130 HIV-1-infected seroconverters (103 with HIV-1 subtype E and 27 with subtype B) were included in the study. The main outcome measures were serial HIV-1 RNA viral load, natural killer cell percentage, CD4 and CD8 lymphocyte counts since seroconversion. RESULTS: The demographic and behavioral characteristics of persons with either subtype were similar. Median RNA viral levels at the earliest time within 3 months of seroconversion were more than three times higher for persons infected with subtype E than subtype B (63 100 versus 18 050 copies/ml, P = 0.001). However, this difference decreased over time such that viral loads were similar at 12, 18, and 24 months following seroconversion. The CD4 and CD8 lymphocyte counts were similar in infections with either subtype during the entire period up to 24 months post-seroconversion. CONCLUSIONS: Higher viral loads associated with subtype E may result from inter-subtype biological differences; however, the epidemiological dynamics of transmission in Bangkok may have also contributed to this phenomenon.

Continued high HIV-1 incidence in a vaccine trial preparatory cohort of injection drug users in Bangkok, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: A large epidemic of HIV-1 subtype B began among injection drug users (IDUs) in Bangkok in 1988. Despite ongoing prevention efforts, HIV-1 prevalence among IDUs remained at 30-50% through the 1990s. OBJECTIVES: To measure the incidence of HIV-1 infection and related risk factors to guide prevention efforts and to evaluate the feasibility of conducting an HIV vaccine efficacy trial. DESIGN AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study in which IDUs attending methadone treatment programs in Bangkok were screened during 1995-1996 for enrollment into the study. IDUs found to be HIV-seronegative on two occasions were offered enrollment with follow-up visits every 4 months. On each visit participants were evaluated with a questionnaire and serologic testing. RESULTS: A total of 1209 HIV-negative IDUs were enrolled. Through the end of 1998, the overall HIV-1 incidence rate was 5.8 (95% confidence interval, 4.8-6.8) per 100 person-years of follow-up. HIV-1 subtypes E and B accounted for 79 and 21% of infections, respectively. On multivariate analysis, HIV-1 seroconversion was primarily associated with the frequency of heroin injection, the sharing of injection equipment, and incarceration, especially with drug injection. Sexual behavior was not associated with increased risk for HIV-1. Risk factors for infection with HIV-1 subtypes E and B were similar. CONCLUSION: HIV-1 transmission risk remains high among Bangkok IDUs despite methadone treatment and other current prevention strategies. There is an urgent need to address this ongoing epidemic, especially in jails and prisons. This study led to the initiation in 1999 of a phase III HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial in this population.

Early diagnosis of HIV-1-infected infants in Thailand using RNA and DNA PCR assays sensitive to non-B subtypes.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of RNA and DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for early diagnosis of perinatal HIV-1 infection and to investigate early viral dynamics in infected infants. DESIGN: A cohort study of 395 non-breastfed infants born to HIV-infected mothers in a randomized clinical trial of short-course antenatal zidovudine. METHODS: Infant venous blood specimens collected at birth, 2 months, and 6 months of age were tested by qualitative DNA and quantitative RNA PCR (Roche Amplicor). To determine sensitivity and specificity of DNA and RNA PCR, results were compared with later DNA PCR results and to antibody results at 18 months. The HIV-1 subtype of the mother's infection was determined by peptide serotyping. RESULTS: In the study, 92% of mothers were infected with subtype E. DNA PCR sensitivity was 38% (20 of 53) at birth, and 100% at 2 months (53 of 53) and 6 months (47 of 47). RNA PCR sensitivity was 47% (25 of 53) at birth and 100% (53 of 53) at 2 months. All samples that tested DNA-positive tested RNA-positive. Specificity was 100% for both DNA and RNA testing at all timepoints. For infected infants, the median viral load of RNA-positive specimens was 407,000 copies/ml (5.6 log10) at birth, 3, 700,000 copies/ml (6.6 log10) at 2 months, and 1,700,000 copies/ml (6.2 log10) at 6 months. Infant RNA levels at 2 and 6 months did not differ by maternal zidovudine exposure, or RNA level at birth. CONCLUSION: This RNA PCR assay performed well for diagnosing perinatal HIV subtype E infection, detecting nearly half of infected infants at birth, and 100% at 2 and 6 months, with 100% specificity. Infected infant viral RNA levels were very high at 2 and 6 months, and were unaffected by maternal zidovudine treatment.

Short-course antenatal zidovudine reduces both cervicovaginal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 RNA levels and risk of perinatal transmission. Bangkok Collaborative Perinatal HIV Transmission Study Group.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) levels in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) and plasma samples were evaluated in relation to perinatal transmission in a randomized placebo-controlled trial of brief antenatal zidovudine treatment. Samples were collected at 38 weeks' gestation from 310 women and more frequently from a subset of 74 women. At 38 weeks, after a 2-week treatment period, CVL HIV-1 was quantifiable in 23% and 52% of samples in the zidovudine and placebo groups, respectively (P<.001). The perinatal transmission rate was 28.7% among women with quantifiable CVL HIV-1 and high plasma virus levels (>10,000 copies/mL) and 1% among women without quantifiable CVL HIV-1 and with low plasma virus levels (P<.001). A 1-log increase in plasma HIV-1 increased the transmission odds 1.8 and 6.1 times (95% confidence interval, 0.9-3.5 vs. 2.4-15.4) for women with and without quantifiable CVL HIV-1, respectively (P=.03). CVL HIV-1 is an independent risk factor for perinatal HIV-1 transmission.

Short-course zidovudine for perinatal HIV-1 transmission in Bangkok, Thailand: a randomised controlled trial. Bangkok Collaborative Perinatal HIV Transmission Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Many developing countries have not implemented the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 076 zidovudine regimen for prevention of perinatal HIV-1 transmission because of its complexity and cost. We investigated the safety and efficacy of short-course oral zidovudine administered during late pregnancy and labour. METHODS: In a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, HIV-1-infected pregnant women at two Bangkok hospitals were randomly assigned placebo or one zidovudine 300 mg tablet twice daily from 36 weeks' gestation and every 3 h from onset of labour until delivery. Mothers were given infant formula and asked not to breastfeed. The main endpoint was babies' HIV-1-infection status, tested with HIV-1-DNA PCR at birth, 2 months, and 6 months. We measured maternal plasma viral concentrations by RNA PCR. FINDINGS: Between May, 1996, and December, 1997, 397 women were randomised; 393 gave birth to 395 live-born babies. Median duration of antenatal treatment was 25 days, and median number of doses during labour was three. 99% of women took at least 90% of scheduled antenatal doses. Adverse events were similar in the study groups. Of 392 babies with at least one PCR test, 55 tested positive: 18 in the zidovudine group and 37 in the placebo group. The estimated transmission risks were 9.4% (95% CI 5.2-13.5) on zidovudine and 18.9% (13.2-24.2) on placebo (p=0.006; efficacy 50.1% [15.4-70.6]). Between enrolment and delivery, women in the zidovudine group had a mean decrease in viral load of 0.56 log. About 80% of the treatment effect was explained by lowered maternal viral concentrations at delivery. INTERPRETATION: A short course of twice-daily oral zidovudine was safe and well tolerated and, in the absence of breastfeeding, can lessen the risk for mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission by half. This regimen could prevent many HIV-1 infections during late pregnancy and labour in less-developed countries unable to implement the full 076 regimen.

Maternal viral load and timing of mother-to-child HIV transmission, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok Collaborative Perinatal HIV Transmission Study Group.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the proportion of HIV-1-infected infants infected in utero and intrapartum, the relationship between transmission risk factors and time of transmission, and the population-attributable fractions for maternal viral load. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of 218 formula-fed infants of HIV-1-infected untreated mothers with known infection outcome and a birth HIV-1-positive DNA PCR test result. METHODS: Transmission in utero was presumed to have occurred if the birth sample (within 72 h of birth) was HIV-1-positive by PCR; intrapartum transmission was presumed if the birth sample tested negative and a later sample was HIV-1-positive. Two comparisons were carried out for selected risk factors for mother-to-child transmission: infants infected in utero versus all infants with a HIV-1-negative birth PCR test result, and infants infected intrapartum versus uninfected infants. RESULTS: Of 49 infected infants with an HIV-1 birth PCR result, 12 (24.5%) [95% confidence interval (CI), 14 -38] were presumed to have been infected in utero and 37 (75.5%) were presumed to have been infected intrapartum. The estimated absolute overall transmission rate was 22.5%; this comprised 5.5% (95% CI, 3-9) in utero transmission and 18% (95% CI, 13-24) intrapartum transmission. Intrapartum transmission accounted for 75.5% of infections. High maternal HIV-1 viral load (> median) was a strong risk factor for both in utero [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 5.8 (95% CI, 1.4-38.8] and intrapartum transmission (AOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.9-11.2). Low birth-weight was associated with in utero transmission, whereas low maternal natural killer cell and CD4(+) T-lymphocyte percentages were associated with intrapartum transmission. The population-attributable fraction for intrapartum transmission associated with viral load > 10 000 copies/ml was 69%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide further evidence that most perinatal HIV-1 transmission occurs during labor and delivery, and that risk factors may differ according to time of transmission. Interventions to reduce maternal viral load should be effective in reducing both in utero and intrapartum transmission.

Maternal virus load and perinatal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype E transmission, Thailand. Bangkok Collaborative Perinatal HIV Transmission Study Group.

To determine the rate and risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 subtype E perinatal transmission, with focus on virus load, pregnant HIV-infected women and their formula-fed infants were followed prospectively in Bangkok. Of 281 infants with known outcome, 68 were infected (transmission rate, 24.2%; 95% confidence interval, 19.3%-29.6%). Transmitting mothers had a 4.3-fold higher median plasma HIV RNA level at delivery than did nontransmitters (P<.001). No transmission occurred at <2000 copies/mL. On multivariate analysis, prematurity (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.5), vaginal delivery (AOR, 2.9), low NK cell percentage (AOR, 2.4), and maternal virus load were associated with transmission. As RNA quintiles increased, the AOR for transmission increased linearly from 4.5 to 24.8. Two-thirds of transmission was attributed to virus load>10,000 copies/mL. Although risk is multifactorial, high maternal virus load at delivery strongly predicts transmission. This may have important implications for interventions designed to reduce perinatal transmission.

Differences in sexual behaviour between HIV-infected pregnant women and their husbands in Bangkok, Thailand.

In a Bangkok antenatal clinic, we interviewed 102 HIV-infected pregnant women and their husbands, 30% of whom were HIV-negative. We evaluated these data by matched and unmatched analysis, compared men and women in stable couple relationships on a number of sociodemographic and risk factor indicators and investigated further whether there were any differences in sociodemographic or risk factor profiles between HIV-serodiscordant couples and seroconcordant couples. When compared to wives, more of the husbands were working (p = 0.001), earning more money (p = 0.001), had had more than two sex partners (p = 0.001) and had had syphilis (p = 0.001). Serodiscordant couples did not differ greatly from seroconcordant couples except that women married to HIV-negative men were more likely to have been divorced or separated than their husbands which was not the case for women married to HIV-positive men (p = 0.02). There was poor agreement between husband and wife reports of husband risk behaviour and this did not differ between concordant and discordant couples. These findings suggest that assessment of risk and counselling of Thai women is incomplete without information on the HIV status and risk behaviour of her partner. Prevention strategies to decrease heterosexual transmission among couples need to target both the man and the woman.

PIP: This study compared the sexual behaviors of HIV-infected pregnant women and their husbands in Bangkok, Thailand. Researchers interviewed a total of 102 HIV-infected pregnant women and their husbands (30% of whom were HIV-negative). Using matched and unmatched analysis, sociodemographic and risk factor indicators among men and women in stable couple relationships were compared. Differences in sociodemographic or risk factor profiles between HIV-serodiscordant couples and seroconcordant couples were also investigated. Results revealed that income discrepancy between husbands and wives was smaller in discordant than in concordant couples, but the difference did not reach significance. Variables such as jobs, income, number of sexual partners, and presence of syphilis were noted to be much higher among husbands than wives. Men, regardless of HIV status, had consistently higher levels of risk behavior than their female partners. Moreover, women partnered with HIV-negative men, unlike women partnered with HIV-positive men, were infected outside the current relationship. Divorce or separation from a previous husband, younger age at first sex, and a higher number of sexual partners on the part of the wife were predictive of her husband being seronegative. The findings confirm the existence of a gender dichotomy in sexual behavior in Thailand, which is characterized by frequent partner change in males and female monogamy.

HIV-1 subtype E incidence and sexually transmitted diseases in a cohort of military conscripts in northern Thailand.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate of and risk factors for HIV-1 seroconversion and describe sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevalence rates for young men in northern Thailand. METHODS: Data were collected from self-administered questionnaires and serologic testing at enrollment in a prospective study in 1991 and at follow-up after 6, 17, and 23 months on a cohort of 1115 men selected by lottery for military conscription. RESULTS: A total of 14 men seroconverted to HIV-1 envelope subtype E. The overall HIV-1 incidence rate was 1.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6-1.8) per 100 person-years (PY) of follow-up. However, the rate was 2.0/100 PY for conscripts from the upper northern subregion of Thailand compared with 0.5/100 PY from other regions (adjusted rate ratio [RR] = 2.69; 95% CI, 0.8-12.2). On multivariate analyses, the behavioral factors associated with HIV-1 seroconversion were frequency of sex with female sex workers (FSWs; p = .04), receptive anal sex (adjusted RR = 6.73; 95% CI, 1.8-21.7), and large amount of alcohol consumption (adjusted RR = 3.12; 95% CI, 1.0-10.9). Genital ulceration was the STD most strongly associated with seroconversion. The prevalence of serologic reactivity to syphilis, Haemophilus ducreyi, and herpes simplex virus type 2 increased with greater frequency of sex with FSWs and was generally higher for men from the upper north. CONCLUSION: Young men in northern Thailand are at high risk for HIV-1, primarily through sex with FSWs; and other STDs are highly associated with HIV-1 incidence. As HIV-1 infection extends into the general population, intervention programs are needed to address the problem of sexual transmission apart from commercial sex venues.

PIP: Findings are presented from a prospective study conducted to determine the rate of and risk factors for HIV-1 seroconversion, and to describe sexually transmitted diseases (STD) prevalence rates for young men in northern Thailand. Study findings are based upon data collected from self-administered questionnaires and serologic testing at enrollment in 1991 and at follow-up after 6, 17, and 23 months on a cohort of 1115 young men chosen by lottery for military conscription. Men in Thailand are generally eligible for conscription in the year of their 21st birthday. 6.9% of the men were HIV-1 seropositive at enrollment; 15.3% of men from the upper northern region compared with 2.5% of men from elsewhere. 14 subjects seroconverted to HIV-1 envelope subtype E over the course of the study. The overall HIV-1 incidence rate was 1.1/100 person-years (PY) of follow-up. However, the rate was 2.0/100 PY for conscripts from the upper northern subregion of Thailand compared with 0.5/100 PY from other regions. Multivariate analyses found frequent sex with female prostitutes, receptive anal sex, and high levels of alcohol consumption to be positively associated with HIV-1 seroconversion. Genital ulceration was the STD most strongly associated with seroconversion. The prevalence of serologic reactivity to syphilis, Haemophilus ducreyi, and herpes simplex virus type 2 increased with greater frequency of sex with female prostitutes, and was generally higher for men from the upper north.

The 1990-1991 outbreak of melioidosis in the Northern Territory of Australia: epidemiology and environmental studies.

From November 1990 to June 1991 33 acute cases of melioidosis occurred in the Northern Territory, Australia; 25 cases were reported in the capital city, Darwin. We carried out an epidemiological investigation to exclude a common source outbreak, describe the risk factors for disease, and develop and institute appropriate control measures. We compared population based attack rates among various risk groups using logistic regression, and the demographic, medical and behavioral risk factors for melioidosis by a matched case-control study. Environmental Health Officers collected soil, surface water and cooling tower water specimens for Pseudomonas pseudomallei culture. The crude attack rate of melioidosis during the outbreak was 52 per 100,000. Age, gender, race, diabetes and alcohol abuse were independent risk factors for disease. The relative risk of disease in diabetic patients was 12.9 (95% CI 5.1-32.7; p < 0.001) and 6.7 in alcoholic patients (95% CI 2.9-15.2; p < 0.001). We found no significant difference between cases and controls in matched pair analysis for any of several exposure factors studied. We isolated Pseudomonas pseudomallei from 4% of soil samples and 9% of surface water samples. Our study confirms the importance of host factors in the development of melioidosis, and attempts to quantify the risk of disease during the Darwin epidemic. Pseudomonas pseudomallei is widespread in the soil of urban Darwin.

The natural history of asymptomatic carotid artery disease.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this article is to determine the natural history of carotid artery disease among asymptomatic patients with cervical bruits or other risk factors for stroke and to study the value of duplex ultrasonography in predicting future neurologic events. METHODS: Two hundred forty-two asymptomatic, unoperated patients, referred for evaluation of asymptomatic carotid artery disease, were followed prospectively with duplex ultrasonography. RESULTS: Fifteen ischemic strokes (6.2%) and 20 transient ischemic attacks (TIA) (8.3%) occurred in 34 patients during a mean follow-up of 27.4 months. Annual stroke, TIA, and combined event rates were 2.7%, 3.6%, and 6.2%, respectively. Although patients with 80% to 99% lesions had a 20.6% annual event rate, most events occurred contralateral to these lesions; the vessel-specific annual event rate for 80% to 99% disease was 5.1%. Only one of 15 strokes occurred ipsilateral to an 80% to 99% stenosis. Echolucent plaques were associated with TIA and stroke (5.7% annual vessel event rate vs 2.4% for echogenic plaques, p = 0.03). Disease progression was highly correlated with TIA and stroke (p < 0.0001), but it usually occurred in association with rather than before ischemic events, thus proving more useful in explaining pathogenesis than in predicting future events. There was no association between aspirin use and TIA, but patients taking aspirin had a threefold higher annual stroke rate (1.6% vs 4.8%, p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: This study, while confirming significant risk for asymptomatic patients with critical stenosis or echolucent plaque, demonstrates the importance of contralateral disease and the absence of orderly progression from minimal disease through high-grade stenosis to symptomatic cerebral ischemia. TIA and stroke commonly occur in association with abrupt, unpredictable, quantum changes in carotid artery disease.

A comparison of two simple hazard ratio estimators based on the logrank test.

Two hazard ratio estimators based on the logrank test are investigated using a simulation study. The Pike estimator (ratio of relative death rates) was shown to be consistently less biased than the Peto (1-step) estimator. The latter has recently been advocated as the method of choice for point and interval estimation. Both estimators exhibited bias with increasing hazard ratios, although the bias was minimal for effects less than 3. The confidence intervals also did not achieve the nominal coverage with increasing hazard ratios, but again the Pike estimator was superior. The coverage could be improved by recalculation of the variance incorporating the point estimate. For a hazard ratio of less than 3 we recommend the use of the Pike estimator, otherwise it is necessary to use a more complex method of estimation.

Hepatitis B infection of children in a mixed-race community in western New South Wales.

A seroprevalence survey of markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in children aged 0-16 years was conducted in a mixed-race township in western New South Wales. A total of 408 children were screened representing 95% of the total 0-16-year-old population. Of the Aboriginal subjects, 69% had seromarkers which indicated previous infection with HBV and 14% were hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seropositive. In the non-Aboriginal subjects the prevalence of seromarkers was 10% with no subjects HBsAg positive. The township provided an ideal setting for studying possible crossinfection from children in a high risk (Aboriginal) population group to children in a low-risk (non-Aboriginal) group. The ratio of children in the high-risk group for HBV infection to those in the low-risk group was approximately 2.7:1. Although HBsAg was highly endemic in the Aboriginal population, the data indicate that little crossinfection has occurred. We conclude that in this and similar mixed-race communities action should be taken to accelerate vaccination programmes aimed at reducing HBV infection among neonates and children in the high-risk groups. This will provide an immediate overall reduction of potential risk to both high-risk and low-risk groups while the issue of universal vaccination is considered further.