An integrated of fuzzy-WASPAS and E-FMEA methods for environmental risk assessment: a case study of petrochemical industry, Iran.

Due to the scope and volume of activities, the petrochemical industry has a high potential for risk to humans and the environment. This study aimed to evaluate the environmental risks caused by the ammonia and urea production process. To screen the risks identified in the follow-up phase, the process hazard analysis (PHA) was used. The environmental aspects were also assessed using environmental failure mode and effects analysis (EFMEA). The most significant environmental aspect with a Risk Priority Number (RPN) of 100 was related to CO2 emissions from the disposal tower. To rank the final aspects, the criteria "severity," "probability of occurrence," "probability of detection," and the "extent of contamination" were first weighed by the fuzzy Shannon entropy method. Then, each aspect was prioritized based on the mentioned criteria and using fuzzy Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS). According to this technique, among the 24 environmental aspects, the highest score (with a value of 0.702) was given to CO2 emissions from the disposal tower. Finally, suggestions were made to mitigate the risks.

Comparative analytical study of the results of environmental risk assessment of urban landfills approach: bowtie, network analysis techniques (ANP), TOPSIS (case study: Gilan Province).

Most landfill projects run in a dynamic and complex environment; therefore, uncertainty and risk are inherent. To improve the performance and reduce the damage caused by waste, risk study and its management have become necessary in implementing landfill location projects. As a result of the biodegradation of organic matter in waste, landfills produce various materials such as leachate, and gas. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct environmental risk assessments so that the destructing factors and their effects on the environment can be identified, and subsequently, control and management solutions offered. In the present study, the author has identified the most critical risks of construction phases and operation of landfills in Gilan province, using the Analytic Network Process (ANP), Delphi, and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) techniques. According to the results, the environmental sector represents the highest risk in the construction and operation phases. Therefore, solutions for reducing or eliminating adverse outcomes have been proposed according to the bowtie method. Solutions to reduce or eliminate the adverse effects of leachate leakage from the landfill floor that causes pollution and infiltration into groundwater: installation of a conventional control system. Routing of landfill gases by passing soil filters at the highest points of landfills using the bowtie method is recommended. The results showed that anthropogenic activities related to sanitary landfilling of waste have greatly affected Gilan province in recent years.

Compilation of a model for hazardous waste disposal site selection using GIS-based multi-purpose decision-making models.

Nowadays, given the high production volume of industrial and dangerous materials and their impacts on the human society and environment, disposal of waste materials in the environment and finding the best disposal site for industrial and hazardous wastes, as the most significant managerial measure, have become one of the most important and complex decisions in urban management. In order to find a disposal site, analysis of spatial data, laws, and large socioeconomic and environmental criteria is required. Multi-criteria analysis techniques coupled with GIS capabilities can be a good solution for this. Due to numerous industrial units, especially refineries in Bushehr province, it is essential to find a management solution for hazardous wastes of this province. The main objective of this study is to find an optimal location which has the lowest environmental risk and economically favorable. For this purpose, ecological and socioeconomic criteria were identified and normalized by fuzzy method. The weight of the parameters was determined by analytical network process method combined with the weighted linear combination method. In the capability of the area to locate the hazardous waste disposal, the results showed that the highest weight belonged to ecological criteria (61.34%) and land use (0.27), respectively. Also, 6.13% of the province areas are identified with high potentials for disposal of hazardous wastes. The results of this study showed the importance and significant weight of environmental criteria in prioritizing the proposed areas for disposal of this type of waste. Efficiency of the employed models, integrated with GIS and MCDM, was also proven.

Modeling and prediction of future ecotourism conditions applying system dynamics.

The ecotourism industry is one of the largest industries and has an important role in the economic social and cultural development of societies, especially in developing countries. Policymaking and planning procedures in this industry require the application of the methods that can appropriately model mutual and complex interactions and contacts. System dynamics is an accurate modeling method to simulate complex systems in a structured way and to design more effective policies by using these complex systems. In this study, the interactions and dynamics of the main components of ecotourism (effective variables) in the Taleghan area are modeled using system dynamics. To formulate and model simulations in the period between 2005 and 2015 was considered, and then extending the period of investigation, the model simulation was performed till the year 2025. Among the most important results of this study is the effect of the environment on the demand for ecotourism. Environmental degradation and the degradation of the quality of the environment lead to a reduced demand for ecotourism. This study predicts the future of ecotourism by this dynamic and designs a group of policies for the sustainable and comprehensive development of ecotourism on the basis of the behavior of the model variables in order to prevent the degradation of environment and simultaneously ensure that ecotourism demand is not negatively affected. Finally, the best policy "depending construction to the state of the area environment" was selected among them.

Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

Developing an environmental water quality monitoring program for Haraz River in Northern Iran.

Water quality management plans are an indispensable strategy for conservation and utilization of water resources in a sustainable manner. One common industrial use of water is aquaculture. The present study is an attempt to use statistical analyses in order to prepare an environmental water quality monitoring program for Haraz River, in Northern Iran. For this purpose, the analysis of a total number of 18 physicochemical parameters was performed at 15 stations during a 1-year sampling period. According to the results of the multivariate statistical methods, the optimal monitoring would be possible by only 3 stations and 12 parameters, including NH3, EC, BOD, TSS, DO, PO4, NO3, TDS, temperature, turbidity, coliform, and discharge. In other words, newly designed network, with a total number of 36 measurements (3 stations × 12 parameters = 36 parameters), could achieve exactly the same performance as the former network, designed based on 234 measurements (13 stations × 18 parameters = 234 parameters). Based on the results of cluster, principal component, and factor analyses, the stations were divided into three groups of high pollution (HP), medium pollution (MP), and low pollution (LP). By clustering the stations, it would be possible to track the water quality of Haraz River, only by one station at each cluster, which facilitates rapid assessment of the water quality in the river basin. Emphasizing on three main axes of monitoring program, including measurement parameters, sampling frequency, and spatial pattern of sampling points, the water quality monitoring program was optimized for the river basin based on natural conditions of the study area, monitoring objectives, and required financial resources (a total annual cost of about US $2625, excluding the overhead costs).

Application of Multivariate Statistical Methods to Optimize Water Quality Monitoring Network with Emphasis on the Pollution Caused by Fish Farms.

BACKGROUND: One of the key issues in determining the quality of water in rivers is to create a water quality control network with a suitable performance. The measured qualitative variables at stations should be representative of all the changes in water quality in water systems. Since the increase in water quality monitoring stations increases annual monitoring costs, recognition of the stations with higher importance as well as main parameters can be effective in future decisions to improve the existing monitoring network. METHODS: Sampling was carried out on 12 physical and chemical parameters measured at 15 stations during 2013-2014 in Haraz River, northern Iran. RESULTS: The results of the measurements were analyzed using multivariate statistical analysis methods including cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (FA), and discriminant analysis (DA). According to the CA, PCA, and FA, the stations were divided into three groups of high pollution, medium pollution, and low pollution. CONCLUSION: The research findings confirm applicability of multivariate statistical techniques in the interpretation of large data sets, water quality assessment, and source apportionment of different pollution sources.

Analysis of land suitability for urban development in Ahwaz County in southwestern Iran using fuzzy logic and analytic network process (ANP).

The ever-increasing development of cities due to population growth and migration has led to unplanned constructions and great changes in urban spatial structure, especially the physical development of cities in unsuitable places, which requires conscious guidance and fundamental organization. It is therefore necessary to identify suitable sites for future development of cities and prevent urban sprawl as one of the main concerns of urban managers and planners. In this study, to determine the suitable sites for urban development in the county of Ahwaz, the effective biophysical and socioeconomic criteria (including 27 sub-criteria) were initially determined based on literature review and interviews with certified experts. In the next step, a database of criteria and sub-criteria was prepared. Standardization of values and unification of scales in map layers were done using fuzzy logic. The criteria and sub-criteria were weighted by analytic network process (ANP) in the Super Decision software. Next, the map layers were overlaid using weighted linear combination (WLC) in the GIS software. According to the research findings, the final land suitability map was prepared with five suitability classes of very high (5.86 %), high (31.93 %), medium (38.61 %), low (17.65 %), and very low (5.95 %). Also, in terms of spatial distribution, suitable lands for urban development are mainly located in the central and southern parts of the Ahwaz County. It is expected that integration of fuzzy logic and ANP model will provide a better decision support tool compared with other models. The developed model can also be used in the land suitability analysis of other cities.

Caspian Rapid Assessment Method: a localized procedure for assessment of wetlands at southern fringe of the Caspian Sea.

Although Iran is of founders of the Ramsar Convention, there is no comprehensive information available in the country on the status of wetlands in the past or at present. There is also no specific guideline for assessing the status of wetlands in the basin of the Caspian Sea as an ecosystem with unique ecological features. The main aim of this study was to develop a new procedure called "Caspian Rapid Assessment Method" (CRAM) for assessment of wetlands at southern fringe of the Caspian Sea. To this end, 16 rapid assessment methods analyzed by US EPA in 2003 were reviewed to provide an inventory of rapid assessment indices. Excluding less important indices, the inventory was short-listed based on Delphi panelists' consensus. The CRAM was developed with 6 main criteria and 12 sub-criteria. The modified method was used to assess three important wetlands of Anzali, Boojagh and Miyankaleh at the southern border of the Caspian Sea. According to the obtained results, the highest score of 60 was assigned to the Anzali Wetland. Obtaining the scores of 56 and 47, Miyankaleh and Boojagh wetlands were ranked in the next priorities, respectively. At final stage, the accuracy of CRAM prioritization values was confirmed using the Friedman test. All of the wetlands were classified into category II, which indicates destroyed wetlands with rehabilitation potentials. In recent years, serious threats have deteriorated the wetlands from class III (normal condition) to the class II.

Urban development change detection based on Multi-Temporal Satellite Images as a fast tracking approach--a case study of Ahwaz County, southwestern Iran.

Rapid land-use/land-cover changes in suburbs of metropolitan cities of Iran have recently caused serious environmental damages. Detection of these changes can be a very important step in urban planning and optimal use of natural resources. Accordingly, the present study was carried out to track land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes of Ahwaz County in southwestern Iran using remote sensing techniques over a period of 26 years, from 1987 to 2013. For this, ISODATA algorithm and Maximum Likelihood were initially used for unsupervised and supervised classifications of the satellite images. The accuracy of the LULC maps was checked by the Kappa Coefficient and the Overall Accuracy methods. As the final step, the LULC changes were detected using the cross-tabulation technique. The obtained results indicated that urban and agricultural areas have been increased about 57.5 and 84.5 %, respectively, from 1987 to 2013. Further, the area of poorly vegetated regions, in the same period, has been decreased to approximately 36 %. The largest land conversion area belongs to the poorly vegetated regions, which have been declined to about 10,371 and 1,334 ha during 1987-2007 and 2007-2013, respectively. Approximately 1,670 and 382 ha of the agricultural lands have also been changed to built-up areas by about 1,670 and 382 ha during the same periods. As a result, it was found that the northwest, southwest, and south of the county were highly subjected to urban development. This would be of great importance for urban planning decision-making faced by the planners of the city in the present and future.

Cumulative effects of developed road network on woodland--a landscape approach.

Population growth, during the twentieth century, has increased demand for new farmlands. Accordingly, road networks have rapidly been developed to facilitate and accelerate human access to the essential resources resulted in extensive land use changes. The present study aims at assessing cumulative effects of developed road network on tree cover of Golestan Province in northern Iran. In order to detect changes over the study period of 1987-2002, the LULC map of the study area was initially prepared from the satellite images of Landsat TM (1987) and ETM+ (2002) using maximum likelihood supervised classification method. Afterwards, a total number of seven landscape matrices were selected to detect cumulative effects of the developed road network on woodland cover. The obtained results indicated that the fragile patches are mainly located at a distance of 171-342 m from the roadside. Furthermore, the majority of the patches affected by cumulative effects of development activities are situated at a distance of 342-684 m from the roadside, over an approximate area of 55 ha. The analysis of landscape metrics revealed that the developed road network has increased the landscape metrics of "the number of patches" and "patches perimeter-area ratio". It has also followed by a decrease in metrics such as "patches area", "Euclidean nearest neighbor distance", "patches proximity", "shape index", "contiguity", and "mean patches fractal dimension". The road network has also increased the "number of patches" and decreased the "mean patches area" representing further fragmentation of the landscape. With identification of highly affected wooldland cover patches, it would be possible to apply adaptive environmental management strategies to preserve and rehabilitate high-priority patches.

A novel pollution index based on the bioavailability of elements: a study on Anzali wetland bed sediments.

In this research, we study on the distribution of several elements in bed sediments of Anzali wetland. Anzali, one of the most important international wetlands, is located on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Iran. This wetland receives discharges of domestic, agricultural, and industrial wastewater, which affect the distribution of elements. Our contribution in this study is threefold. First, we measured the total concentration of metals as well as their chemical partitioning and bioavailability in the sediments. Second, we calculated anthropogenic portions of metals in the sediment of this area. The results reveal anthropogenic portion of metals as Mo > Mn > Cd > As > Zn > Hg > Co > Sn > Cu > V > Ag > Ni > Pb > Fe > Cr > Al, respectively. We evaluated the intensity of pollution by using an enrichment factor, the geo-accumulation index and the pollution index. All these indices do not take into consideration the bioavailability of the elements. As our third and most important contribution, we introduced a new formula that takes into account the bioavailability of different elements. In comparison with aforementioned pollution indices, our newly introduced pollution index has a higher Pearson correlation with anthropogenic portion of metals. This high-correlation coefficient shows that our proposed pollution index is an effective indicator for determining the level of pollution, while other indices preserve their own merits.

Bioaccumulation of trace elements in different tissues of three commonly available fish species regarding their gender, gonadosomatic index, and condition factor in a wetland ecosystem.

In the present research, accumulation of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn were determined in sediments and fillet, liver, kidney, gonads, and gills of three commonly fish species in the largest wetland ecosystem that is located in southwest of Iran; Shadegan wetland. Shadegan is one of the most important wetland that posses various fauna and flora but suffers inputs from agricultural and industrial activities. So, sediment samples and fish species including Barbus grypus, Barbus sharpeyi, and Cyprinus carpio were collected during winter 2009. Results showed that mean concentrations of trace elements (except Ni and Co) were high in liver and gills of B. grypus. Also trace elements had the most accumulation in liver of B. sharpeyi except for Cd (0.26 mg kg(- 1) d.w.) and Mn (13.45 mg kg(- 1) d.w.) that were high in gills. Beside, kidney is determined as target tissue for Ni and V in B. grypus and for Pb in C. carpio, due to their high concentration. Zn levels in all tissues of C. carpio showed the highest concentrations in comparison to other fish species. Generally, accumulations of most of the studied elements in B. grypus and B. sharpeyi were higher in females than in males, while in fillet and gonads of C. carpio, this trend was inverted. Bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) were determined for different tissues of fish species with respect to elemental concentrations in sediment. BAFs results indicated that Zn, Pb, and Cu have higher BAF than other elements. Also this investigation demonstrated that trace elements have different affinities with condition factor of studied fish species. Gonadosomatic index (GSI) and Pb showed positive correlation together in both B. sharpeyi and B. grypus, respectively, in females and males. Moreover, females of C. carpio showed significantly positive relation of GSI and all studied elements.

The effects of socioeconomic parameters on household solid-waste generation and composition in developing countries (a case study: Ahvaz, Iran).

Environment problems associated with the generation of waste are part of societal changes where households play an important role. These societal changes influence the size, structure and characteristic of given households. For the effective planning of solid-waste handling infrastructure, it is essential to know the quantity of waste generation and its composition. This paper presents the findings of a study carried out in an urban municipal area in Iran to determine the household solid-waste generation rate and waste composition based on field surveys and to determine the related socioeconomic parameters. The dependent variables were waste generation and composition, and independent variables were family size, family employment, age, number of room and education. Over 400 sample households were selected for the study using a stratified random sampling methodology and from five different socioeconomic groups. Waste collected from all groups of households were segregated and weighted. Waste generation rate was 5.4 kg/household/day. Household solid waste comprised of ten categories of wastes and with the largest component (76.9%). The generation and composition of household solid waste were correlated with family size, education level and households income. This paper adequately suggests new insights concerning the role of socioeconomic parameters in affecting the generation of household waste.

Development of a new pollution index for heavy metals in sediments.

This study aims to investigate the pollution rate of heavy metals on the western seaboard of Bandarabbas in southeast Iran using a new pollution index. The bulk of the analysis was conducted on sediments, followed by selection of a few samples to perform experiments on chemical partitioning studies as well as biological accessibility. On this basis, the proportions of natural and anthropogenic elements were calculated. Finally, with regard to chemical separation results, the pollution rate was calculated based on Muller's geo-chemical index, enrichment factor, pollution index, and a new "Risk" index. Chemical separation showed the anthropogenic origin of elements are as follows: Ni(27.5%) > Zn(6.5%) > Pb(2%) > Al (0.2%). The newly developed pollution index is indicative of "low environmental pollution "for Ni.

Bioaccumulation of trace elements in trophic levels of wetland plants and waterfowl birds.

Present study investigates relationships between total and bioaccessibility of trace elements (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, NI, Pb, V, and Zn) concentrations in sediment and their bioaccumulation in species in Shadegan wetland in southwest of Iran. Bioavailability factor (BAF) and translocation factor (TF) were calculated in plants and trophic transfer factor (TTF) was determined in bird species. For this purpose, sampling of sediments, aquatic plants including Phragmites australis, Typha australis, Scripus maritimus and two bird species encircling Porphyrio porphyrio and globally threatened Marmaronetta angustirostris were carried out during winter 2009. Result of chemical analysis show that bioaccessibility concentrations of Mn (8.31 mg/kg), V (1.33 mg/kg), and Pb (1.03 mg/kg) are higher than other metals. The uptake trend of trace elements in plant decreases as root > stem > leaf. Accumulation levels of trace elements in different tissues of P. porphyrio and M. angustirostris are almost identical and considerable. Accumulation and toxicity of Cd in birds is more than plants. In addition, BAF of V, Pb, and Cr indicates high accumulation by plants and great pollution rate in the area of study. In S. maritimus TF for Mn, Cu, Pb, and V are high whereas in T. australis, Cu and Pb posses the highest TF. Also Cr, Co, Mn, Ni, and Zn have higher TF from stem to leaf than root to stem in P. australis. Finally, TTFs were compared in various bird species.