Methods for causal inference from gene perturbation experiments and validation.

Inferring causal effects from observational and interventional data is a highly desirable but ambitious goal. Many of the computational and statistical methods are plagued by fundamental identifiability issues, instability, and unreliable performance, especially for large-scale systems with many measured variables. We present software and provide some validation of a recently developed methodology based on an invariance principle, called invariant causal prediction (ICP). The ICP method quantifies confidence probabilities for inferring causal structures and thus leads to more reliable and confirmatory statements for causal relations and predictions of external intervention effects. We validate the ICP method and some other procedures using large-scale genome-wide gene perturbation experiments in Saccharomyces cerevisiae The results suggest that prediction and prioritization of future experimental interventions, such as gene deletions, can be improved by using our statistical inference techniques.

MAGMA: generalized gene-set analysis of GWAS data.

By aggregating data for complex traits in a biologically meaningful way, gene and gene-set analysis constitute a valuable addition to single-marker analysis. However, although various methods for gene and gene-set analysis currently exist, they generally suffer from a number of issues. Statistical power for most methods is strongly affected by linkage disequilibrium between markers, multi-marker associations are often hard to detect, and the reliance on permutation to compute p-values tends to make the analysis computationally very expensive. To address these issues we have developed MAGMA, a novel tool for gene and gene-set analysis. The gene analysis is based on a multiple regression model, to provide better statistical performance. The gene-set analysis is built as a separate layer around the gene analysis for additional flexibility. This gene-set analysis also uses a regression structure to allow generalization to analysis of continuous properties of genes and simultaneous analysis of multiple gene sets and other gene properties. Simulations and an analysis of Crohn's Disease data are used to evaluate the performance of MAGMA and to compare it to a number of other gene and gene-set analysis tools. The results show that MAGMA has significantly more power than other tools for both the gene and the gene-set analysis, identifying more genes and gene sets associated with Crohn's Disease while maintaining a correct type 1 error rate. Moreover, the MAGMA analysis of the Crohn's Disease data was found to be considerably faster as well.